Graduation Rates: Students Who Started 9 th Grade in 2000, 2001, and 2002

1

Graduation Rates:Students Who Started 9th Grade in 2000, 2001,

and 2002

2

The Bottom Line• Latest 4-year statewide graduation rate is 67%, much

too low. Ranges from 45% in Big 4 Cities to 91% in wealthiest districts.

• This disparity declines in the 5th and 6th year of high school. After 6 years, 57% of New York City students had graduated; 94% for Low Need.

• Shows the urgent need for additional funding and accountability, as Regents have advocated.

• Some improvements:• Graduation rates increased for Black and Hispanic

students.• Graduation rate increased for New York City.

3

IEP Diploma2%

Still Enrolled16%

Dropped Out14%

Graduated67%

Transferred to GED Programs

1%

Students who started 9th grade in 2002 after four Years--Statewide 67% of students in the 2002 Total Cohort graduated by June 2006; 16 percent were still enrolled.

2002 Total Cohort Students = 216,910

All Students in Public Schools

4

Transferred to GED Programs

1%

IEP Diploma2%

Still Enrolled5%

Dropped Out19%

Graduated 72%

Students who started 9th grade in 2001 after five years--Statewide 72% of students in the 2001 Total Cohort graduated byJune 2006; 5 percent were still enrolled.



5

Students who started 9th grade in 2000 after six years--Statewide 73% of students in the 2000 Total Cohort graduated by June 2006; 2 percent were still enrolled.



Dropped Out21%

Still Enrolled2%

IEP Diploma2%

Transferred to GED

Programs1%

Graduated 73%

6

Graduation Rates: Improving Data• School districts have improved their record-

keeping over time, counting more students. • Example: schools first reported 199,000

students in the group who started 9th grade in 2000. A year later, they reported 210,000 students in that same group. The increase was due to better record-keeping.

• The 4-year graduation rates in the following slides are based on the latest, more complete data from school districts. As a result, some of the results may vary slightly from graduation rates presented in 2005 and 2006. Differences are indicated.

7

Graduation Rates: The Total Cohort

• Graduation rates shown in the following slides for the state as a whole and for all need/resource categories (for example, the Big 4 Cities, New York City, High Need Urban/Suburban districts, and so forth) include all students who began 9th grade in a particular year (for example, 2002), no matter how long they remained in school.

8

Statewide, the four-year graduation rate of the 2002 Cohort was one percentage point higher than that of previous cohorts. The graduation rates of the 2000 and 2001 Cohorts increased by six percentage points in the fifth year of high school.

66%72% 73%

66%72%

67%

Four Years Five Years Six Years

2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 210,525

2001 212,315

2002 216,910

adjusted downward from 67%.

adjusted upward from 64%.

9

The graduation rate of each successive New York City Cohort has improved. In the 2000 and 2001 Cohorts, 9 to 10% of students graduated in the fifth year.

44%

53%56%

47%

57%50%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 74,786

2001 72,637

2002 73,864

adjusted upward from 43.5%.

10

In the Big 4 Cities, 56% of 2000 Cohort members had graduated by the end of Year 6.

49%55% 56%

47%53%

45%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 8,554

2001 8,642

2002 9,048

11

In districts outside the Big 5 Cities, 84% of 2000 Cohort members had graduated by the end of Year 6. The decrease between the 2000 and 2001 Cohorts is due to more accurate inclusion of students in the 2001 Cohort.

80% 83% 84%78%

82%78%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 127,185

2001 130,856

2002 133,998

12

While the graduation rate of Black Students is unacceptably low, it has improved.

44%

53%56%

46%

56%

47%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 40,373

2001 40,239

2002 41,392

13

The graduation rate of Hispanic students also increased.

41%

50%53%

43%

53%

45%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 34,770

2001 35,122

2002 36,847

14

The graduation rate of White students has been stable across cohorts.

80% 83% 84%79% 82%79%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 120,371

2001 121,673

2002 122,785

15

At the end of six years, more than three-quarters of general-education students statewide had graduated. The graduation rate increased between the 2000 and 2002 Cohorts.

69%75% 76%

70%76%

71%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 186,174

2001 185,854

2002 189,457

16

At the end of six years, fewer than half of students with disabilities had graduated. The graduation rate decreased between the 2000 and 2002 Cohorts. The graduation rates for the 2000 Cohort were probably inflated by failure to report some students with disabilities.

48%47%42% 43%

38% 37%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 24,351

2001 26,281

2002 27,453

17

While the graduation rate of English Language Learners in the 2000 Cohort improved after five and six years, fewer than half had graduated at the end of six years.

35%

44%47%

34%

42%

27%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 11,776

2001 11,302

2002 11,027

18

The graduation rate of female students is higher than that of males and has been steady across the 2000, 2001 and 2002 Cohorts.

71%76% 77%

71%77%

71%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 102,538

2001 104,217

2002 106,343

19

The graduation rate of male students in the 2002 Cohort was slightly higher than that in previous cohorts.

61%67% 69%

61%68%

62%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 107,987

2001 107,918

2002 110,567

20

Graduation rates vary widely based on student need and district wealth.

21

Needs/Resource Category

Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

Diploma

IEP diploma

Still enrolled

Trans-ferred to

GED

Dropped Out

New York City 73,864 50% 2% 28% 0% 20%

Large City 9,048 45% 3% 19% 1% 31%

Urban/Suburban 17,647 58% 3% 16% 3% 20%

Rural High Need 14,647 71% 4% 8% 3% 14%

Average 70,880 78% 2% 9% 2% 9%

Low Need 30,574 91% 1% 5% 1% 3%

Charter Schools 250 26% 0% 40% 0% 34%

Total Public 216,910 67% 2% 16% 1% 14%

The Percentage of Students in the 2002 Cohort by Outcomes as of June 30, 2006 after 4 years

Students in Low Need Districts are twice as likely to graduate in four years as those in Large City Districts.

22

Need/Resource Category

Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

Diploma

IEP diploma

Still enrolled

Trans-ferred to

GED

Dropped Out

New York City 72,637 57% 3% 11% 1% 29%

Large City 8,642 53% 4% 4% 2% 38%

Urban/Suburban 17,059 66% 3% 4% 3% 23%

Rural High Need 14,634 73% 4% 2% 3% 18%

Average 69,646 83% 2% 2% 2% 12%

Low Need 29,294 93% 1% 1% 1% 4%

Charter Schools 223 37% 0% 22% 0% 40%

Total Public 212,135 72% 2% 5% 1% 19%

The graduation rates in urban High Need Districts improves in the fifth year.


23



Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

DiplomaIEP

diplomaStill

enrolled

Trans-ferred to

GEDDropped

Out

New York City 74,786 56% 3% 5% 1% 35%

Large City 8,554 56% 4% 1% 2% 37%

Urban/Suburban 16,034 70% 3% 1% 3% 23%

Rural High Need14,660 77% 4% 0%* 1% 17%

Average 68,161 85% 2% 1% 1% 12%

Low Need 28,161 94% 1% 0%* 0%* 4%

Charter Schools 169 55% 0% 9% 0% 36%

Total Public 210,525 73% 2% 2% 1% 21%

While the disparity between high and low need districts is smaller after six years than after four, it is unacceptably large.

*less than 0.5%

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Graduation rates vary according to disability status, ELL status, race/ethnicity, and gender.

25

The Percentage of General Education Students in the 2002 Cohort by Outcomes as of June 30, 2006 After Four Years


Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

DiplomaIEP

diplomaStill

enrolled

Trans-ferred to

GEDDropped

Out

New York City 66,277 53% 0% 27% 0% 19%

Rest of State 123,180 80% 0% 8% 2% 10%

Total Public 189,457 71% 0% 15% 1% 13%

Statewide, 71 percent of general education students graduate in four years.

26

The Percentage of Students with Disabilities in the 2002 Cohort by Outcomes as of June 30, 2006 After Four Years


Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

DiplomaIEP

DiplomaStill En-rolled

Trans-ferred to

GEDDropped

Out

New York City 7,587 19% 20% 30% 0% 31%

Rest of State 19,866 45% 13% 21% 3% 18%

Total Public 27,453 37% 15% 23% 3% 22%

Only 37 percent of students with disabilities graduated in four years. Students with disabilities in Rest of State districts were more than twice as likely to graduate as those in New York City.

27

The Percentage of Limited English Proficient Students in the 2002 Cohort by Outcomes as of June 30, 2006 After Four Years


Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

DiplomaIEP

diplomaStill

enrolled

Trans-ferred to

GEDDropped

Out

New York City 8,347 22% 5% 39% 0% 34%

Rest of State 2,680 44% 1% 28% 2% 25%

Total Public 11,027 27% 4% 36% 1% 32%

Statewide, English Language Learners are likely to remain enrolled a fifth year.

28

The Percentage of Students in the 2002 Cohort by Racial/Ethnic Group by Outcomes as of June 30, 2006 After Four Years


Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

DiplomaIEP

diploma

Still en-

rolled

Trans-ferred

to GED

Drop-ped Out

American Indian/Alaskan Native 943 50% 3% 17% 4% 26%

Asian/Pacific Islander 14,943 74% 1% 15% 0% 10%

Black41,392 47% 3% 27% 1% 21%

Hispanic36,847 45% 2% 28% 1% 24%

White122,785 79% 2% 8% 2% 9%

Despite improvements, Black and Hispanic students graduated at substantially lower rates after 4 years than White and Asian students.

29

The Percentage of Students by Gender in the 2002 Cohort by Outcomes as of June 30, 2006 After 4 Years


Cohort Enroll-ment

Regents/Local

DiplomaIEP

diploma% Still

enrolled

Trans-ferred to

GEDDropped

Out

New York City

Female 36,799 56% 2% 25% 0% 17%

Male 37,065 43% 2% 31% 0% 24%

Rest of State

Female 69,544 80% 1% 8% 2% 10%

Male 73,502 72% 2% 11% 2% 12%

Total Public

Female 106,343 71% 2% 14% 1% 12%

Male 110,567 62% 2% 18% 2% 16%

Females are substantially more likely than males to graduate in four years. The difference is larger in New York City than the Rest of State.

30

Graduation Rates: Accountability for School Districts

• Under the NCLB accountability system in New York State, individual school districts and schools are held accountable for all students who start 9th grade in a particular year (for example, 2002) and stay in school for at least 5 months during high school and do not transfer to another district or school. Therefore, the graduation rates for New York City’s community school districts and for all other school districts are computed in this way.

• Those are the rates you see in the following slides.

31

The four-year graduation rate in Buffalo has declined.

57%62% 63%

54%58%

51%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 2,869

2001 2,874

2002 2,896

32

Rochester’s four-year graduation rate decreased as cohort membership increased.

45%52% 53%

41%48%

39%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 2,106

2001 2,270

2002 2,427

33

Syracuse’s four-year graduation rate for the 2002 Cohort was lower than for previous cohorts.

56%61% 62%

56% 59%

47%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 1,390

2001 1,337

2002 1,502

34

Yonkers’ four-year graduation rate has declined slightly, but the cohort membership has increased.

57%

68% 70%

54%

64%

55%


2000 Cohort

2001 Cohort

2002 Cohort

Cohort Members

2000 1,406

2001 1,555

2002 1,678

35

Total Public High School Graduates Each YearA record number of students graduated in 2005-06.

13

1,2

13

1,2

13

1,7

13

3,1

13

2,8

13

1,1

13

3,2

14

1,5

57

,4

7

59

,8

4

62

,5

5

67

,6

6

70

,1

2

76

,0

5

78

,6

6

84

,1

91

02

,4

14

1,4

1 2 2

HS Graduates Regents Diplomas

YearNumber of Students Earning Regents or

Local Diplomas

1995-96

136,754

1996-97

138,990

1997-98

139,531

1998-99

140,365

1999-00

141,510

2000-01

141,634

2001-02

143,070

2002-03

143,818

2003-04

153,202

2004-05

153,202

2005-06

161,732

36

The Bottom Line• Latest 4-year statewide graduation rate is 67%, much

too low. Ranges from 45% in Big 4 Cities to 91% in wealthiest districts.

• This disparity declines in the 5th and 6th year of high school. After 6 years, 57% of New York City students had graduated; 94% for Low Need.

• Shows the urgent need for additional funding and accountability, as Regents have advocated.

• Some improvements:• Graduation rates increased for Black and Hispanic

students.• Graduation rate increased for New York City.

37

What Successful Schools Do to Raise Graduation Rates

• Focus on improving the 9th grade promotion rate. This starts with “bridge” programs in the summer for students with low 8th grade scores. New York City has been able to estimate the probability of graduation based on a threshold number of credits upon entering 9th grade. That knowledge makes the summer bridge program an urgent matter.

• Figure out which children are in which cohort at the start of school. This makes the challenge more focused.

• Know the data, know the children personally, and make sure all the other adults do, too.

38


• Tell entering 9th graders that some will graduate in four years, and others “have skills that we will work on,” and they too will graduate in years five or six. Let no one feel excluded or like a failure.

• Work on those skills through morning, afternoon and evening sessions in flexible groups so students can easily move to a new group to learn the next skill set as they progress.

39


• Use short diagnostic tests often during the year to check gains in the skills measured by the standards and the Regents exams. Keep reassessing to ensure that students really grasp the content.

• By the middle of 9th grade, the students needing intensive help get an “Advocate,” who is a teacher committed to talking with each of the 15 students in that teacher’s care every single day.

40


• In June of senior year, identify students who are a credit or two away from graduation. Assign someone to stay in daily contact with each of them and their families. Support the students through summer school and the August Regents and graduation.

• Schedule twice weekly meetings of teachers to examine student work, teacher practice, and the interim assessments that gauge student progress. Share the notes from these professional conversations.

• Make sure the support systems are in place: attendance taking and analysis, social services, guidance.

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Graduation Rates:Students Who Started 9th Grade in 2000, 2001,

and 2002

Documents

Graduation Rates: Students Who Started 9 th Grade in 2000, 2001, and 2002