Graduation and Success RatesFirst-Time Full-Time Freshman Cohorts Fall 06 to Fall 11

Also:

Pell Grant Cohorts 2006 and 2007D.C. Tuition Assistance Grant Recipients 2000-2013

Trinity Washington University

2

Introduction and ContextArising from an historic mission commitment to ensure access to higher education for women who once were excluded, rooted in the social justice commitments of the Sisters of Notre Dame de Namur who founded Trinity College in 1897, Trinity Washington University today is deeply committed to ensuring broad access to educational opportunities for historically marginalized populations, particularly women and low income students from the District of Columbia and the Washington region. Trinity’s student body profile includes:

• 75% African American students• 15% Hispanic students• 95% women• 50% District of Columbia residents• 30% Prince Georges County and Montgomery County residents• 75% of undergraduates are Pell Grantees• 99% of full-time undergraduates receive Trinity grants• 100% of all students receive some form of financial aid

3

Different Pathways to Graduation and SuccessTrinity works each day to ensure student success and graduation. The university’s experience with students who have many “non-traditional” characteristics --- older students, part-time students, single parents, self-supporting, working full-time while in school, heads of households and caretakers for siblings and elder family members, students who sometimes are homeless or financially marginalized --- reveals that such students make their way through college along pathways and with timetables that are remarkably different from the stereotypical 18-22 year old “traditional” college student (a distinct minority of all college students today).

Federal policy continues to use very traditional measurements to assess student success, e.g., the IPEDS “graduation rate” that only measures “seat time” in one school, an outmoded traditional notion of retention and completion for cohorts of full-time first-time freshmen. The government-mandated data treats transfer students as drop-outs even if they complete degrees at another university, and also treats as drop-outs students who actually complete degrees at their first university beyond the traditional 4-6 year timeframe.

Trinity believes that a more complete measurement of continuing enrollment and degree attainment across multiple institutions, and all along the student’s lifespan, is a more realistic measure of academic success. Stopped-out students are not drop-outs, and particularly for women who often must stop out for family concerns, recognizing and accounting for the importance of later return and completion patterns is a significant issue for those students, their colleges and also the workforce.

Accordingly, in this report, Trinity provides both the federally required data along with the more complete picture of student progress toward degrees across multiple institutions as provided by using the data available in the National Student Clearinghouse.

Finally, Trinity will augment this data periodically to include students who transfer into Trinity, adult and professional students, and graduate students.

4

Data Sources

• IPEDS: Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System, the federal database that establishes the baseline data reported by all institutions

• National Student Clearinghouse: private voluntary system through which student progress across multiple institutions is tracked through graduation

5

METHODOLOGY• Using the National Student Clearinghouse, Trinity has identified the progress of every student in each

first-time full-time freshman cohort starting in 2006 and every fall semester through 2011. The clearinghouse data, displayed on the next table, shows the percentage of students in each cohort who are:

• Still enrolled at Trinity• Still enrolled at another higher ed institution• Have earned a bachelor’s at Trinity (which is the equivalent of the IPEDS graduation rate)• Have earned a certificate at another institution• Have earned a bachelor’s degree at another institution• Have earned an associate’s degree at another institution

• The “success rate” is the total proportion of all of the above --- students who are still enrolled at Trinity or at another institution, or those who have graduated from Trinity or elsewhere.

• Below the gray line on the next page, Trinity has also assessed the relative weight of the attrition factors that had the greatest impact on students who are not enrolled and did not complete degrees. The identifiable attrition factors include:

• Financial Holds• Poor Academic Performance (beyond academic probation)• Academic Probation• Good Academic Performance (which may mean a student transferred for a programmatic reason)

• Note that, most often, attrition is due to multiple factors with finance and academic performance interacting, but also factors such as health and family issues or other personal issues that are difficult to assess in a standardized way like finance or grade point averages.

6

Trinity Full-Time First-Time Cohort Completion and Continuing Enrollment/Attrition at Trinity or Elsewhere with Clearinghouse Data

Time since starting: 7 yrs 6 yrs 5 yrs 4 yrs 3 yrs 2 yrs

Starting Cohort Fall Semester: 2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011

Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent

Earned AA at another inst 3 2% 1 1% 3 2% 2 1% 2 1% 0 0%

Earned BA at another inst 23 13% 13 6% 6 3% 2 1% 0 0% 0 0%

Earned Cert at another insti 0 0% 0 0% 1 0% 1 0% 2 0% 0 0%Earned BA at Trinity (~ IPEDS GRAD RATE) 55 32% 75 34% 78 40% 45 19% 1 0% 0 0%

Still Enrolled at another Inst 14 8% 35 16% 24 12% 43 18% 46 17% 52 20%

Still Enrolled at Trinity 4 2% 10 5% 21 11% 65 27% 132 49% 150 57%

Financial Hold 27 15% 48 22% 30 15% 25 10% 23 9% 24 9%

Left not in good academic standing 16 9% 12 5% 16 8% 9 4% 16 6% 15 6%

Left on academic probation 17 10% 12 5% 12 6% 33 14% 32 12% 5 2%

Left in good standing 15 9% 16 7% 6 3% 15 6% 14 5% 17 6%

TOTAL 174 100% 221 100% 197 100% 240 100% 268 99% 263 100%

Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent Count Percent

Still Enrolled or Graduated ALL 99 57% 134 60% 133 68% 158 66% 183 68% 202 77%

2006 2006 2007 2007 2008 2008 2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011

Top Transfer Schools: UMUC UDC UDC MCC UDC UDC

UMCP UMCP PG UDC MCC MCC

UDC PGCC Bowie Bowie UMCP UMCP

Howard MCC Howard PGCC CSoMd

Strayer

7

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20110%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

32% 34%40%

19%

0% 0%

2%5%

11%

27%

49%57%

13% 6%

3%

1%0%

0%8% 16%

12%18% 17%

20%15%

22%15%

10% 9%

9%9%

5% 8%

4% 6%

6%10%

5%6%

14% 12%2%

9% 7% 3% 6% 5% 6%

57%60%

68% 66%68%

77%

30%33%

Trinity Cohort Completion and Continuing Enrollment/Attrition With Clearinghouse Data for Cohorts from Fall 2006 to Fall 2011

And Pell Grant Completion Rates for 2006 and 2007 Cohorts

Good ACSTACAPROBad ACSTFin HoldEnroll OtherBA OtherAA OtherEnroll TrinityBA TrinitySuccess RatePell Completion

First Time Full Time Cohort Initial Enrollment Fall

On the columns above, the dark purple is the completion rate at Trinity, the light purple is still enrolled at Trinity, the blues are completed or still enrolled at other institutions, and the red line and number is the “success rate.” The cohorts that began in 2006-2007-2008 have largely finished degrees by now. The cohorts for 2009-2010-2011 are mostly still in school. Above the line, the columns show attrition because of money (green) or academic reasons.

8

Interpretation of the Data• As indicated on the graph on the previous page, Trinity’s total “success rate” (the red line across

the columns) indicating students who have graduated or are still enrolled at Trinity is 57%-60%-68% for the cohorts that started in 2006-2007-2008 respectively, the cohorts that would be most likely to be at or near completion by 2013. Those rates are significantly higher than the IPEDS completion rate alone (the lowest purple part of the columns for those years) which indicates only those students who finished degrees at Trinity.

• The yellow line and markers across 2006 and 2007 at 30% and 33% respectively are the Pell Grantee 6-year completion rates for those cohorts, almost the same as all students in the cohorts since Trinity’s Pell Grant proportion is very high at 75% of the cohorts.

• As the names listed on the bottom of the chart on the previous page reveals, most of the students who transfer out of Trinity go to public universities, most often for financial reasons, sometimes because the major public universities have a broader menu of major programs. Trinity plays a large role in helping to prepare students for long-term success in whatever institution eventually awards the degree.

• Students who are not currently enrolled at Trinity or elsewhere consistently demonstrate the top attrition factors of financial and academic stress. These factors are consistent across many universities that enroll large numbers of low income students, who are also most likely to have academic preparatory deficiencies as a result of under-performing public schools. Some of these students will eventually complete degrees after stopping out for a period of time.

9

D.C. Tuition Assistance Grant Recipients2000-2013

Graduated; 414; 28%

Still Enrolled; 413; 28%

Not Currently Enrolled; 655;

44%

Since the start of the D.C. Tuition Assis-tance Grant Program in the Year 2000, Trinity has enrolled 1,485 D.C. TAG re-cipients. 56% have graduated or are still enrolled at Trinity.

10

TRINITY IPEDS GRADUATION RATE AND TRANSFER COUNTS AND RATES 2000-2013“Student Right to Know” Rates

REPORTING YEARS

Cohort Start Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

Total 2000 to 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

FTFT Enrolled 102 116 174 156 144 124 174 221 1211 6 Yr Graduated 53 42 69 59 50 56 53 75 457 Rate 52% 36% 40% 38% 35% 45% 30% 34% 38%

Four Year Grad 35% xFour Year Transfer 22%

36% x 31%

39% x 33%

37% x 37%

41% x 35%

11

CIRP DATA: FINANCIAL PROFILE

Trinity’s entering first year students face considerable financial challenges. Data collected from the freshmen through the annual CIRP (Cooperative Institutional Research Program) reveals consistently that more than half the class have family incomes under $30,000. The following chart using the 2012 CIRP data is illustrative. The comparison group reflects women students at all four-year Catholic colleges.

12

2012 CIRP: PARENT INCOME ESTIMATE

25.5%

9.9%

7.5%8.1%

7.5%6.2%

8.7%9.9%

9.3%

2.5% 2.5% 2.5%

0.0% 0.0%

4.4%

2.9% 2.6%3.3% 2.9%

5.5%

6.9%7.8%

9.9%

13.0%

17.3%

9.0%

5.2%

9.1%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

Le

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TRINITY

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51%

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More than half of Trinity freshmen have family incomes of less than $25,000,while in the cohort group half have family incomes of less than $90,000. 75% of Trinity frosh have family incomes of less than $50,000, while 75% of the cohort group have family incomes of les than $150,000.

Select Cohort Study of Proportionate Enrollment of

White, Black Hispanic Students in Fall 2012, Rate of Pell Grant Participation of Freshmen, Cohort Graduation Rate for Fall 2006 Cohort

as reported in the 2013 IPEDS Data Benchmarking Reports

13

Trinity Washington UniversityPrepared by President Pat McGuire

January 25, 2014

Institutions Selected for This Cohort

This is a blended cohort of Trinity’s standard cohort of historic women’s colleges in urban centers, some Catholic, augmented with the addition of other private colleges with high Pell Grant and Black/Hispanic proportions, and also including a select group of HBCU institutions both public and private to see the interplay of Pell, Race and Completion Data. The data is all extracted from each institution’s 2013 IPEDS Data benchmarking reports available on the NCES website.

14

INSTITUTION HCT WOMEN WHITE BLACK HISPANIC B+HPELL FROSH

06 GRAD RATE TUITION Women's C.

Catholic C. HBCU

CHEYNEY 1433 52% 1% 93% 3% 96% 85% 23% 8,802 XPBENNETT 793 100% 0% 94% 2% 96% 91% 37% 16,974X XDILLARD 1447 72% 0% 93% 1% 94% 83% 31% 1,477 XSOJOURNERD 1916 88% 2% 92% 1% 93% 53% 22% 7,920 XBOWIE 6430 64% 4% 87% 2% 89% 59% 35% 6,600 XPNORFSTATE 8318 66% 5% 83% 2% 85% 72% 34% 6,860 XPVASTU 6757 61% 4% 83% 1% 84% 67% 42% 7,420 XPMORGAN 9027 61% 4% 83% 1% 84% 67% 42% 7,420 XPLINCOLNPA 2393 61% 2% 80% 1% 81% 64% 37% 9,590 XJNSNCSMTH 1886 61% 1% 74% 5% 79% 66% 42% 18,326 XTRINITY 3103 91% 5% 69% 10% 79% 75% 30% 21,125X XDELSTATE 4406 63% 14% 70% 5% 75% 61% 33% 7,336 XPXAVIERLA 3875 71% 6% 73% 2% 75% 70% 51% 18,700 XUMES 5064 58% 15% 69% 2% 71% 65% 32% 6,713 XPOLADYLAKE 2870 73% 22% 10% 55% 65% 74% 27% 23,420 XUDC 11000 62% 6% 57% 7% 64% 64% 15% 7,244 XPMTSTMRYCA 3205 90% 14% 8% 51% 59% 65% 57% 32,894X X

MERCY 15786 72% 32% 24% 27% 51% 74% 29% 17,556XX XX

CNR 5886 90% 8% 38% 12% 50% 89% 28% 30,380X X

HERITAGEWA 1447 75% 33% 1% 47% 48% 95% 21% 16,500MARYGROVE 3345 76% 44% 45% 1% 46% 84% 15% 18,900XX X

COLUMBIASC 1495 96% 51% 39% 4% 43% 66% 46% 22,030XWESLEYANGA 839 96% 40% 34% 3% 37% 48% 48% 19,000XBARRY 10673 66% 17% 18% 17% 35% 59% 41% 28,160XX X

CHESTNUT 2621 73% 47% 29% 6% 35% 31% 47% 30,165XX X

CSE 2047 89% 47% 19% 13% 32% 75% 54% 29,900X X

ALVERNO 2919 98% 59% 17% 14% 31% 75% 39% 22,126X X

NDDENCA 2368 69% 36% 6% 24% 30% 52% 47% 30,500 X

NDMD 3887 87% 64% 24% 5% 29% 47% 48% 34,850X X

URSULINE 1866 88% 64% 26% 2% 28% 54% 53% 25,790X X

MRYMTMAN 2212 78% 60% 10% 17% 27% 29% 40% 25,648XX XX

MBALDWIN 2226 93% 61% 21% 4% 25% 53% 49% 28,020XGEORGIAN 3000 87% 60% 9% 9% 18% 59% 49% 28,040XX X

IMMACULATA 5418 77% 77% 13% 4% 17% 37% 53% 29,000XX X

CEDARCRST 2043 94% 71% 8% 9% 17% 58% 61% 31,596XUNSTJOE 3228 91% 55% 7% 7% 14% 43% 58% 31,826X X

CARLOW 3453 84% 47% 13% 1% 14% 56% 56% 24,438X X

CHATHAM 2676 87% 67% 9% 2% 11% 55% 59% 31,352XXX=historic women's or Catholic college

XP=Public HBCU

15

Trinity’s Place in the Data

Note that as the spreadsheet gets sorted in different ways (not always shown on the following slides) it turns out that Trinity is:• 7th among all 38 institutions in the Pell Grant proportion of

the freshman class (75%)• 9th from the bottom on the completion rate for Fall 2006

cohort (30%)• 14th largest Black student population (in fact, a larger

proportion of Black students than UDC)• 12th largest Hispanic student population• 10th largest combined Black & Hispanic population

16

What the Data DemonstratesThe data on the following slides depict graphically the relationship between the proportion of Pell Grantees in a freshman class and the graduation rates. Note that because the data all comes from the 2013 IPEDS report, the Pell Grant cohort (Fall 2011) is different from the actual graduation cohort (Fall 2006) but a review of the data for all institutions on the list over time shows fairly consistent numbers with only slight variations over time.

This data is consistent with the report of the Advisory Committee on Student Financial Aid (the report “Measure Twice”) that documents the fact that graduation rates are most clearly affected by the proportion of Pell Grant recipients in a student population as well as the size of the institutional endowment and test scores. The latter two points are not revealed in this particular study but anecdotally it’s fair to say that the institutions on this report with the largest Pell Grantee population also have very small endowments. Many do not use test scores so that correlation is unclear.

17

Chart One: Sorted by Graduation Rates

On the next slide, the yellow line shows the graduation rates for the Fall 2006 cohort from highest to lowest. As the rate declines, the percentage of Pell recipients in the first year class (red line) increases. Also note the change in the racial composition of the student body as the Pell grant proportion increases and graduation rate declines.

18

CEDARCRSTCHATHAMUNSTJO

EM

TSTMRYCA

CARLOW

CSEURSULINEIM

MACULATA

XAVIERLAGEO

RGIANM

BALDWIN

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NDMD

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LUMBIASC

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MARYGRO

VEUDC

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

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30%

40%

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60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Chart One: Select Cohort Sorted first by IPEDS Grad Rate for Fall 2006 Cohort then showing Pell Frosh and and Enrollment of White/Black/Hispanic Students

HISPANICBLACKWHITEPELL FROSH06 GRAD RATE

19

Chart Two: Sorted by Pell Recipients

Chart Two on the next page shows the descending slope of Pell Grantees compared to grad rates and student body racial composition. Interesting to note that some institutions with relatively modest Pell Grant proportions still have low grad rates.

20

HERITAGEWA

BENNETTCNRCHEYNEYM

ARYGROVE

DILLARDTRINITYALVERNOCSEO

LADYLAKEM

ERCYNO

RFSTATEXAVIERLAVASTUM

ORGAN

JNSNCSMTH

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ESM

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UDCLINCO

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RYMTM

AN

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Chart Two: Select Cohort Sorted First by Pell Frosh Participation then showing IPEDS Grad Rates

and Proportionate Enrollment of White/Black/Hispanic Students

HISPANICBLACKWHITEPELL FROSH06 GRAD RATE

21

The Impact of Race and Social Class

“Low income students” is the new euphemism to talk about race and social class in higher education today. In fact, race matters very much because of the disproportionate impact of poverty on Black and Hispanic students. Failing to understand the data by race leaves out a major component of the story of college persistence and completion today. The next three slides (Charts Three, Four and Five) show the performance of the cohort when sorted first by race – Chart three by Black Student proportion, Chart four by White Student proportion, Chart five by Hispanic Student proportion.

22

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JOURNERD

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ORGAN

NORFSTATE

LINCOLNPA

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XAVIERLADELSTATEUM

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A

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Chart Three Special Cohort Sorted by Proportion of Black Students Showing Proportions of White and Hispanic Students

Pell Frosh and Grad Rates IPEDS Data

HISPANICBLACKWHITEPELL FROSH06 GRAD RATE

23

IMM

ACULATACEDARCRSTCHATHAMURSULINENDM

DM

BALDWIN

MRYM

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GEORGIAN

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LUMBIASC

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ARYGROVE

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ERCYO

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ORGAN

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URNERDLINCO

LNPACHEYNEYJNSNCSM

THBENNETTDILLARD

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Chart Four: Select Cohort Sorted First by Proportion of White Students, Showing Also Black and Hispanic Students, IPEDS Grad Rate and Pell Frosh

HISPANICBLACKWHITEPELL FROSH06 GRAD RATE

24

25

OLADYLAKE

MTSTM

RYCAHERITAGEW

AM

ERCYNDDENCABARRYM

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ANALVERNOCSECNRTRINITYGEO

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INIM

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ORGAN

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0%

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100%

0%

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Chart 5: Select Cohort Sorted by Hispanic Students Then showing Black and White Enrollment Proportions

IPEDS Pell Frosh Proportion and Fall06 Cohort Grad Rate

HISPANICBLACKWHITEPELL FROSH06 GRAD RATE