GPM & HMT: Progress Towards Coordinated Activities in the

November 2, 2010 12010 PMM Science Team Meeting

GPM & HMT: Progress Towards

Coordinated Activities in the Southeast

Tim Schneider

NOAA-ESRL, Boulder, CO

Contact: [email protected]

http://hmt.noaa.gov/

Presentation to the PMM Science Team

Seattle, WA November 2, 2010

Outline

I. “State of the HMT”

• The big picture

II. HMT-Southeast

• NOAA’s Drivers

III. Synergies with GPM

November 2, 2010 2010 PMM Science Team Meeting 2

A National Testbed Strategy


Northwest – Cool

Season (2009+)

HMT Southeast –

All Season (2011

ramp to 2013+)

HMT “Next” (time & region TBD)

California – Cool

Season (1998/2004+)

Mini-HMTs – AZ

(2008+); CO (2009+)

HMT West

Timeline & Overall Effort


Calje

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HM

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Projected: based on the

President’s Budget Request for

FY2011

CalWater

HM

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CAAZ

COWA

NC

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GPM

HMT’s Five Major Activity Areas


Snow Info

DSTs

QPE

Srfc. Processes & Hydro

QPF

Cross-cutting Themes


Verification Obs Network

*NOAA’s Proposed Climate Service

Training

• New challenge for HMT – all seasons- Warm season focus, but…- Land-falling tropical (named) storms- Cool season phenomena

• Geographic scope:- Initial efforts centered on the Piedmont in NC (see

map)• Priorities & Requirements

- HMT is driven by NOAA priorities- Workshops identified ~47 requirements

• Coordinate with- NASA GPM-2013- NOAA SE-CART- NOAA Water Center/IWRSS- CERIS- CI-FLOW & Sea Grant- Coastal Services Center- NIDIS SE Pilot- THORPEX- Others…

NOAA HMT-SE


Friday 1 Oct 2010

ECU campus

Courtesy of Tom Rickenbach

THORPEX

NOAA HMT-SE Update

Milestones• Ad hoc Workshop Planning Committee formed in 2008

– HMT-SE Operational Needs & Requirements Workshop, February 2009

– HMT-SE Research Planning Workshop, June, 2009

• *President’s Budget 2011 Budget Request:– HMT (base support for hydromet research)– CERIS (coupling estuary and river models in the Southeast)– THORPEX (large-scale QPF modeling and assimilation)

• Guiding documents are currently under development– An HMT-SE science plan (drawing on diverse group from

NOAA and stakeholders)– An HMT-SE implementation plan

• Tentatively*: begin ramping up in NC in 2011– pending Congressional approval of the budget

CERIS

HMT


NOAA’s Focus

Focus on:Warm season (incl. land-falling tropical systems) extreme precipitation & runoff

• Lower troposphere– Profile the kinematic and thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere– Boundary Interactions

• E.g. convective outflows (interacting)

– Lift, availability of water, and ‘priming’= Forcing + Fuel + Stability

• Processes at (and below) the surface– Surface processes (e.g. soil moisture; runoff)– Interactions with the water table– River & stream flow– Low & high flow– Inundation


NOAA’s FocusWhat Physical Processes to Observe?

• Coastal Front• Land-falling “tropicals”• PREs

– On average ~1/year (but they tend to cluster)

• Cold air damming• Orographic precipitation• Sea breeze• Convection

– Triggers– Detection– Crossing the Appalachians

• Cyclogenesis• Microphysics• Forcing/convergence• Low level jet (barrier jet)• Moisture transport• Boundary layer


Image Courtesy of Seth Gutman

Nashville Flooding, 2010

NOAA HMT-SENature & scope of observations

Modeling

• Regional

• WRF Ensembles

• Large-scale

• Reforecasting

• Operational

• Coupled systems

• “Sky to summit to sea”

• “Bedrock to boundary

layer”+


• Scanning radar

• Mobile balloon systems

• Profiling sites

• Surface sites


Observing Strategy: NOAA Strawman

Tar-Pamlico River Basin

~5375 mi2

Neuse River Basin

~6225 mi2

Synergy With NASA-GPM

I. Observing & Modeling Infrastructure

• HMT-SE (2013)

• Proposed: OLYMPEX (2014; w/HMT-NW)

II. Ground Validation (Physical)

• Focused on the validation of GPM algorithms

• Long-term observations (anticipated 5 years+)

III. Hydrologic Applications (Integrated)

• Connecting research and operations (through

national centers & field offices)

• A “place” to develop and test ideas, products, tools

and deviceNovember 2, 2010 2010 PMM Science Team Meeting 13

Key Drivers

• The Southeast lies at the confluence of mid-latitude and tropical weather systems,

• Is Experiencing rapid population growth (a southeastern megapolis) and land-use changes

• Is home to a wide range of basin scales, processes, and geomorphologies

• Is susceptible to changing climate


Key QuestionsIdentified by the GPM Hydrology ‘SE-Subgroup’

• How do the land surface properties/charateristics affect satellite retrieval error?– The unique physiographies of the Coastal Plain; Piedmont;

Appalachian Mountains?

• How does retrieval error trace through flood simulations and water budgets of basins of different scales, uses, characteristics?

• How do microphysics; storm dynamics & maturity state; barrier jets along the southern Appalachian’s; and other processes and phenomena affect retrieval error?– Traceablility: identify algorithm errors and/or characteristics for

these storms


Points of Contact

To help bridge the gap between the Hydro group and other efforts:

• Ground Validation POC: Ana Barros

• Modeling POC (proposed): Sarah Zhang


A Couple of thoughts on a Concept of Operations…

• Post flood assessments of major events (forensics)– Could be grad student driven (severe weather

model)

– Training needed

• Needed: – Gap analysis for observing system requirements

– Deliberate observational requirements informed by science questions and algorithm needs


November 2, 2010 18

Thank You!

2010 PMM Science Team Meeting

http://hmt.noaa.gov

/

Documents

GPM & HMT: Progress Towards Coordinated Activities in the