THE UNIVERSITY OF THE WEST INDIES ST. AUGUSTINE

FACULTY OF SOCIAL SCIENCES DEPARTMENT OF POLITICAL SCIENCE

GOVT 2060 International Relations:

Theories and Approaches Fall 2017

Topic 6 Levels of Analysis and Foreign Policy

Traditionally, foreign policy has been analyzed from 3 approaches - the systemic, the state and the individual. This session critically examines these three approaches and assesses their relevance for specific foreign policy measures.

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Course content • The History and Evolution of the International System • Levels of Analysis and Foreign Policy

POSITIVIST THEORIES MAINSTREAM APPROACHES

• Liberalism • Realism • Neorealism • Neoliberalism

STRUCTURALIST APPROACHES

• Classical Marxism • Dependency Theory • Structural Imperialism • Worlds System Theory

• International Society Theory (The English School)

POST-POSITIVIST THEORIES • Constructivism • Postmodernism • Critical Theory • Feminism

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Readings: 1. Christensen, Thomas J. & Jack Snyder. “Chain gangs and passed bucks: predicting alliance patterns in multipolarity”. International Organization. Spring 1990, Vol. 44 Issue 2, p 137 – Ebsco Host (32p) 2. Brenner, Philip; Haney, Patrick J.; Vanderbush, Walter. “The Confluence of Domestic and International Interests: U.S. Policy Toward Cuba, 1998–2001”. International Studies Perspectives, May 2002, Vol. 3 Issue 2, p 192 –Ebsco Host (17p)

At the Caspian Sea University: https://drive.google.com/drive/folders/0B1_Z5ACd6MBPNGJDSUJLX2t4ZG8?usp=sharing

John T. Rourke, International Politics on the World Stage, 12th edition, University of Connecticut, McGraw-Hill/Dushkin, 2008, Ch.3 Levels of Analysis in Foreign Policy Making,

Levels of Analysis IR can be analyzed from 3 levels: • The level of the system (the world) - e.g. Kenneth Waltz's neo-realism, Johan Galtung's structural imperialism, WST • The level of the state (how countries make foreign policy) - e.g. classical realism • The level of the individual

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1. SYSTEM (or "SYSTEMIC") LEVEL OF ANALYSIS

concerns interactions of states and non-state actors on the global stage whose behaviour shape

• the international system and • the levels of conflict and cooperation.

Examples: The capacity of rich states in the Global North to dictate the choices of poor states in the Global South

Protectionist trade policies by an importing country ↓ increase the costs of clothing and cars ↓ reduce: - the standard of living of

o consumers in the protectionist country o citizens in the manufacturing states

- the level of global trade ↓

stimulate global trade wars

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→ A top-down approach to international politics focusing on

• socio-economic • politico-geographic

characteristics of the system

The organization of authority Westphalia ↔ Theoretically, authority = horizontal → state centric, anarchic, self-help, sovereign states. But small/large, poor/rich, weak/strong states → authority = vertical?

It depends on the theoretical (and ideological) approach Actors in the system - states - non-state actors:

• IGOs • transnational organizations (NGOs, MNCs, individuals, terrorist groups etc.)

Scope, level and intensity of interactions

Increased interaction → interdependence, globalization, increased trade (modern telecommunications, internet, email, computer technology, cable satellite, increased travel, strides in tourism, air communication, immigration, increase globalization of human interactions)

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Power relationships in the international system • Power relationships defined by system poles Number of poles (unipolar, bipolar, tri-polar, multipolar) ↓ determines how actors behave

• Concentration of power power equality / moderate power

differences / power inequality ↓ different probabilities of conflict

For realists, certain patterns are discernable:

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(D'Anieri, p.70)

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(Rourke, p. 94)

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• Changes in power cycle theory (e. g. Portuguese, Dutch and British naval hegemony); chaos theory: Cycle theory (→ Hegemonic Stability Theory created by Charles Kindleberger)

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Chaos Theory

In mathematics and physics, chaos theory describes the behavior of certain nonlinear dynamical systems that may exhibit dynamics that are highly sensitive to initial conditions (popularly referred to as the butterfly effect). As a result of this sensitivity, which manifests itself as an exponential growth of perturbations in the initial conditions, the behavior of chaotic systems appears to be random. This happens even though these systems are deterministic, meaning that their future dynamics are fully defined by their initial conditions, with no random elements involved. This behavior is known as deterministic chaos, or simply chaos. Since the International System can be considered a nonlinear dynamic system, it is reasonable to take this theory into account for the study of the International Order.

http://www.irtheory.com/know.htm Major issues: CAUSES: Why power shifts – sources of power, domestic politics, balance of power politics (e. g. the rise and fall of Germany, 1870-1945) EFFECTS: Impact of power changes – a new polar configuration, system instability, rule change (e. g. end of WW II, end of Cold War)

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Economic patterns in the international system

Liberals: Economic interdependence promotes peace Realists, Liberals: Importance of natural resources production and consumption patterns Neo-Marxists: Uneven distribution of wealth

Norms of behavior in the international system

- system controlled by certain generally accepted norms that states tend to respect (e. g. United Nations Charter principles)

2. STATE LEVEL OF ANALYSIS consists of the authoritative decision-making units that govern states'

• foreign policy processes • internal attributes (e. g. type of government, level of economic and military power,

number of nationality groups) which both shape and constrain leaders' foreign policy choices. The state level of analysis includes:

• the processes by which states make decisions regarding war and peace • their capabilities for carrying out those decisions.

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Inside the state

Influences on foreign policy Foreign policy-making actors

• type of government • type of situation • type of policy • political culture

1. heads of government and the executive 2. bureaucracies 3. legislatures 4. political opposition 5. interest groups 6. the people/public opinion

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Foreign policy making • Type of Government - democratic - authoritarian

• Type of Situation - crisis (rally effect). Statesmen surprised by an event feel threatened, believe they only have a short time to react - non-crisis

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• Type of Policy - pure foreign policy (little immediate / obvious impact) - intermestic* foreign policy (immediate/obvious impact) - e. g. foreign trade

• Political Culture = society's widely held values and fundamental practices that are slow to change - American exceptionalism - sinocentrism

*An intermestic policy is one that concerns itself with both international and domestic affairs simultaneously.

Who makes foreign policy Executives = Presidents and heads of government → granted powers by constitution, engage in two-level games

Bureaucracies - filter information, - make recommendations, - implement policy

Legislatures – constrained by: - Power of the chief executive - Tradition (works in the executive's favour) - Belief in a unified national voice - Legislatures' tendency to focus on domestic policy

Political Opposition - more influential in democratic regimes (NB: changing policy ≠ gaining control of government)

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Interest Groups - cultural groups - economic groups - issue oriented groups - transnational interest groups

Public opinion (people) Limited in authoritarian regimes; in a certain measure, also limited in democracies due to: - lack of public interest in foreign affairs - public does not directly influence policy - leader-citizen opinion gap - gender opinion gap

An example:

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A framework for analysis first proposed by James Rosenau (1966, 1980). The role source category refers to the impact of the office on the behavior of its occupant. Decision makers are influenced by the socially prescribed behaviors and legally sanctioned norms attached to the positions they occupy.

The Sources of US Foreign Policy as a Funnel of Causality

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Approaches to foreign policy decision making at the nation-state level: - Rational actor model - Bureaucratic model - Organizational Model

3. INDIVIDUAL LEVEL OF ANALYSIS • Bottom–up approach to foreign policy-making • At the root it is people who make policy • Personal characteristics of humans including - those responsible for making important decisions on behalf of state and non-state actors - ordinary citizens whose behaviour has important political consequences. (leaders / population) • Locate the impact of individuals' perceptions on their political attitudes, beliefs and behavior. • How people as a people or a group make decisions.

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Individual level of analysis = approached from 3 different perspectives: 1. Examine fundamental human nature 2. Study how people act in organizations 3. Examine the motivations and behavior of specific persons (leaders and their individual traits)

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Nature of Human Beings 1. Cognitive Factors - Making decisions within the constraints of bounded rationality. Statesmen deal with cognitive limits by seeking cognitive consistency, wishful thinking, using heuristic devices (stereotypes) 2. Emotional Factors - foreign policy made in anger, sadness Bush on 9/11 3. Psychological Factors - Psychological traits Frustration aggression theory:

When people perceive that they are being prevented from achieving a goal, their frustration is likely to turn to aggression.

4. Biological Factors - Gender and ethology (comparing human behaviour to that of animals)

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Organizational Behaviour How people behave in organizations; norms

– Leaders get their cues from advisers, critics and public opinion – People in organizations or groups tend to want to conform to the group – Don't want to be the odd person out

Leaders and their individual traits Personal idiosyncratic characteristics shape decisions and events. Personal traits include - personality - physical and mental health - ego and ambition - personal experiences - perceptions - operational code – how leader's world view influence his propensity for choosing rewards, threats, force etc

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Hitler had a 'deeply split borderline personality' and a 'narcissistic personality with paranoid features.' He suffered from a large number of symptoms such as poor impulse control, a weak ego, grandiosity, an insatiable desire for praise, hypochondria, neuroses, exhibitionism and voyeurism, self-contradictions, primitive denial, and poor relationships. Chronic childhood trauma, due to the influence of his brutal father and over-solicitous mother, led to a life-long Borderline Personality Disorder. It involved hatred, emotional distance, and lack of a sense of humor and playfulness. The chronic combat trauma derived from nearly four years of stressful combat service during World War I was the major cause of Hitler's Antisocial Personality Disorder (characterized by a pervasive pattern of violating the rights of others), his chronic Post-traumatic Stress Disorder, and his Somatization Disorder. It also explains 'his malevolence and other grossly antisocial behaviors.' Psychiatric symptoms increased in severity after 1942, when Hitler was affected by anxiety, depression, night-mares, temper tantrums, phobias, rages, and grandiosity as well as multiple psychosomatic symptoms. All this clearly influenced his foreign policy and was decisive in initiating World War II.