Govert D. GeldofGeldof c.s. (Netherlands) & DTU Environment Lyngby

VUPTI MeetingTaastrup, 9 June 2010

PresentationClimate Change Adaptation is complex?Top 5:

1. Accepting complexity2. The power of practice3. Making perceptions explicit4. The importance of history5. Story telling

Conclusions

Climate Change AdaptationAdaptation is not new: social and natural

systems have always adapted to changeNew: pro-active adaptation (a hundred years)Complex?

Time

Danger

2010

2100Bifurcation Point

Arnhem

Nijmegen

Bifurcation point

ComplexityThere are many uncertainties:

Is there a bifurcation point?If yes: are we approaching the bifurcation

point or did we already pass it?What measures do we have to take and what

will be the effect?There are many people involved with

different opinions: we depend on them (e.g. politicians & citizens)

Etc.

1: Accept complexity

It makes life simpler

When we accept that we might fail, the probability of success will increase

"Conceiving a safety without risk is like seeking love without courting the danger of rejection“ (Wildavsky, 1988)

2. The Power of PracticeComplex processes can only be dealt with in

practicePrudence: develop practical knowledge

Theory

Practice

3. Making perceptions explicitPeople have different perceptions both about

problem and solutions (→ complexity)Many projects fail because people involved

pre-assume that other people have the same perception as they have

Ask:What do you think the problem is?What is your role?What is your responsibility?

Let’s adapt•Peak rain and flooding•Droughts – water shortage•Heat Island effect•Wind•Connection to other aspects of the urban environment (traffic, quality of housing, facilities, social safety, etc.)

City planning department

Dep of street & traffic

Dep of real estate

Private developers

Etcetera

Citizens

Schools

Organisations

Perceptions become explicit when you visit concrete projects

4. The Importance of History

In complex processes history does not fade away

Now Then

Measure

Measure

Measure

Measure

Measure

Measure

Measure

Measure

Planning like this does not work for

complex processes

“You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future”

Golden Age

Industrial Revolution

Post war restoration

Crisis and new beginning

5. Story telling

Naturalareas

HousingLeisure

Industrial

Agriculture

Waterstorage

Agriculture

Spatial organisation directs Water

Naturalareas

HousingLeisure

> HousingLeisure

Industrial

Waterstorage

Agriculture

Water directs spatial organisation

Information

Knowledge

Story 2

Story 4

Story 1

Story 3

Story 5

Story 6

Story 7

Story 9

Story 8

Story n

Theoretical

concept 2

Theoretical

concept 3

Theoretical

concept 1

Theoretical

concept 4

Theoretical

concept 5

Specific

Generic

Narrative

A good narrativeA story with a head, a tail and a punch lineConstructed out of the languages that people

used to tell their stories (no scientific or political blabla)

It is specific, but also includes generic elementsIs recognised by the people that brought in the

storiesNew scientific knowledge is connected to itDecision makers cannot ignore itOften: it includes a metaphor

Story 2

Story 4

Story 1

Story 3

Story 5

Story 6

Story 7

Story 9

Story 8

Story n

Theoretical

concept 2

Theoretical

concept 3

Theoretical

concept 1

Theoretical

concept 4

Theoretical

concept 5

Specific

Generic

Narrative about ponds, litterand social safety

Conclusions1. When it is complex, accept that it is complex2. Real integration is only possible in practice,

so act as close to practice as possible and appreciate practitioners

3. Ask people involved specifically about their perceptions (goals, roles, responsibilities, etc.)

4. You have to know the history to understand the present and to shape the future: history will not fade away

5. Listen to stories and connect them to the theoretical concepts: constructing narratives

Thanks for your attention …Thanks for your attention …