Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Government Pension FundGlobalAnnual report 2019Oslo, 27 February 2020
10,088 billion kroner in the fundMarket value as at 31.12.2019. Billions of kroner
2
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Fixed income
Unlisted real estate
Equity
10,088Value Percentage share
Equity investments 7,145 70.8
Unlisted real estate investments 273 2.7
Fixed-income investments 2,670 26.5
2
19.9 percent return in 2019Measured in the fund’s currency basket. Percent
3
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Annual return
Accumulatedannualised returnsince 1998
6.1%
19.9%
4Q 2019 5.1%
2019 19.9%
Since 1998 6.1%
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Equity
Unlisted real estate
Fixed income
26 percent in equity return in 2019Measured in the fund’s currency basket. Percent
4
2018 2019
Equity investments -9.5% 26.0%
Fixed-income investments 0.6% 7.6%
Unlisted real estate
investments7.5% 6.8%
Fund -6.1% 19.9%
5,358 billion kroner in total returnAs at 31.12.2019. Billions of kroner
5
3,341
5,358
1,390
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
-1,000
1,000
3,000
5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Krone rate
Return
Inflow (aftermanagement costs)
1,692 billion kroner in return in 2019Billions of kroner
6
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
-1,000
-500
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
The fund’s real return
2019 Last 10 years Since 1.1.1998
Return on fund 19.95 7.83 6.09
Annual inflation 1.80 1.68 1.77
Annual management fees 0.05 0.06 0.08
Annual net real return 17.78 5.98 4.17
Key figures measured in the currency basket. Annualised. Percent
7
243 billion kroner in cash flow Billions of kroner
8
0
50
100
150
200
250
0
50
100
150
200
250
96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Fixed income
Unlisted real estate
Equity
Positive relative return in 2019Annual relative return of the fund. Percentage points
9
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Annual relative return
Accumulatedannualised relativereturn4Q 2019 0.22%
2019 0.23%
Since 1998 0.25%
0.25%
0.23%
Contribution to relative returnAnnualised. Percentage points
10
Strategy 2019 Since 2013
Fund allocation -0.12 -0.10
Security selection 0.16 0.11
Asset management 0.19 0.18
Total 0.23 0.19
Value fluctuations in a longer perspectivePercent (left axis) and billion kroner (right axis)
11
7.7
779
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Risk measured inpercent (left axis)
Risk measured inkroner (right axis)
12
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Equity purchases(left-hand axis)
Equity benchmarkindex (right-handaxis)
Equity purchases and salesBillions of kroner. Equity benchmark index is indexed total return
Financial markets
in 2019
13
Equity markets in 2019Measured in USD (Stoxx in EUR). Indexed total return (31.12.2018 = 100)
14
90
100
110
120
130
140
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20
FTSE Global All Cap(global)
S&P 500 (US)
Stoxx Europe 600(Europe)
MSCI Asia Pacific(Asia)
Source: Bloomberg
FTSE Global All Cap S&P 500 Stoxx Europe 600 MSCI Asia Pacific
4Q 2019 9.2% 9.1% 6.2% 9.5%
2019 27.1% 31.5% 27.7% 19.9%
Equity markets in 2019Measured in USD. Indexed total return (31.12.2018 = 100)
15
90
100
110
120
130
140
90
100
110
120
130
140
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20
FTSE Global All Cap
FTSE Emerging
Source: Bloomberg
FTSE Global All Cap FTSE Emerging
4Q 2019 9.2% 11.8%
2019 27.1% 20.6%
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20
Technology
Industrials
Consumer services
Telecommunications
Oil and gas
Various stock sectors in 2019Measured in USD. Indexed total return (31.12.2018 = 100)
16
Technology Industrials Consumer services Telecommunications Oil and gas
4Q 2019 14.5% 8.8% 7.3% 3.7% 6.4%
2019 44.0% 31.1% 25.9% 17.0% 13.8%
Source: FTSE Russell
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
500
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Technology
Health care
Consumer services
Basic materials
Oil and gas
Various stock sectors last ten yearsMeasured in USD. Indexed total return (31.12.2009 = 100)
17
Technology Health care Consumer services Basic materials Oil and gas
2019 44.0% 23.3% 25.9% 18.5% 13.8%
10 years (annualised) 15.2% 13.3% 12.7% 2.7% 1.5%
Source: FTSE Russell
The fund’s largest equity investments
18
31.12.2009 Sector 31.12.2019 Sector
HSBC Holdings PLC Financials Apple Inc Technology
Royal Dutch Shell PLC Oil and gas Microsoft Corp Technology
BP PLC Oil and gas Alphabet Inc Technology
Nestlé SA Consumer goods Nestlé SA Consumer goods
TOTAL SA Oil and gas Amazon.com Inc Consumer services
10-year government bond yieldsPercent
19
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
Jan-19 Apr-19 Jul-19 Oct-19 Jan-20
US
Germany
Japan
UK
Italy
Source: Bloomberg
US Germany Japan UK Italy
31.12.2018 2.7% 0.2% 0.0% 1.3% 2.7%
31.12.2019 1.9% -0.2% 0.0% 0.8% 1.4%
Annual investments in unlisted real estateCompleted transactions. Billions of kroner
20
11
15
19
37
44
17
14
7 4
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
-10
0
10
20
30
40
50
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
New investments
Sales
Total amount
Aggregated real estate investmentsBillions of kroner
21
52
108
181 191219
246273
33
54 51
73
81
141
52
141
235 242
291
327
414
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Listed real estateinvestments
Unlisted real estateinvestments
Stable internal management costsManagement costs. Basis points
22
4.7
3.7
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Management costs
Internal management costs
CostsMillions of kroner
23
2019 2018
Personnel costs 1,448 1,262
Other internal costs 1,962 1,885
External management costs 902 1,397
Management costs 4,312 4,544
Published on our website 27 February 2020
Holdings list
Monthly returns
Main external service providers
Overview of external managers
Detailed tables on return and risk
Approved issuers of government bonds
www.nbim.no
24
25
Upcoming reports
To be published 3 March 2020 To be published 26 March 2020
Public information available on our website
26
▪ Submissions to the Ministry of Finance
Investment advice
▪ Discussion notesAnalyses that may form the basis for the fund’s investment strategy and advice to the Ministry of Finance
▪ Asset manager perspectives
The fund’s views and reflections on issues topical for the financial industry
▪ Expectations documents
The fund’s expectations to companies regarding specific focus areas
▪ Position papers
The fund’s position on specific ownership topics
▪ Public reports
www.nbim.no
Highlights 2019
▪ The return was 19.9 percent in 2019• Equity 26.0 percent
• Unlisted real estate 6.8 percent
• Fixed income 7.6 percent
▪ The return on the fund was 1,692 billion kroner
▪ The return on the fund was 0.23 percentage point higher than the return on the benchmark index
▪ The market value of the fund increased to 10,088 billion kroner
▪ Asset allocation at the end of the year• Equity 70.8 percent
• Unlisted real estate 2.7 percent
• Fixed income 26.5 percent
27
GovernmentPension FundGlobalAnnual report 2019
