Google Search Trends versus Official Election Results Presidential Primary and General

Elections 2008 and 2012

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What is “Google Trends”?

Google Trends is an online search tool that allows the user to see how often specific keywords, subjects and phrases have been queried over a specific period of time.

Google Trends works by analyzing a portion of Google searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms entered, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over the same time.

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Google Trends and Election Results The purpose of this presentation is to show Google online popularity of the major candidates during Presidential Primary and General elections 2008 and 2012.

Three categories are considered:

• News Search

• You Tube Search

• Web Search

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Republican Presidential Primary 2012 News Search from June 2011 to June 2012

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Republican Presidential Primary 2012 YouTube Search from June 2011 to June 2012

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Republican Presidential Primary 2012 Web Search from June 2011 to June 2012

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Do we see the leader?

Dr. Ron Paul is clearly leading in Google Trends, while this is not the case in the official election results. There may be at least two reasons for that:

• Dr. Paul was more popular in the nation, and Google trends reflect this fact, while election results do not. This is a really bad scenario.

• People could not find or did not trust information about Dr. Paul from the mainstream media, and they had to search for this information on the Internet. This scenario is better that the previous one, but it is still bad.

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Presidential Republican Primaries 2012 Results by State

Date State Romney Paul Gingrich Santorum

Jan. 3 Iowa 25.00% 21.00% 13.00% 25.00%

Jan. 10 New Hampshire 39.00% 23.00% 9.00% 9.00%

Jan. 21 South Carolina 28.00% 13.00% 40.00% 17.00%

Jan. 31 Florida 46.00% 7.00% 32.00% 13.00%

Feb. 4 Nevada 50.00% 19.00% 21.00% 10.00%

Feb. 7 Colorado 35.00% 12.00% 13.00% 40.00%

Feb. 7 Minnesota 17.00% 27.00% 11.00% 45.00%

Feb. 7 Missouri 25.00% 12.00% 55.00%

Feb. 4–11 Maine 38.00% 36.00% 6.00% 18.00%

Feb. 28 Arizona 47.00% 9.00% 16.00% 27.00%

Feb. 28 Michigan 41.00% 12.00% 7.00% 38.00%

Feb. 11–29 Wyoming 39.00% 21.00% 8.00% 32.00%

Mar. 3 Washington 38.00% 25.00% 10.00% 24.00%

Mar. 6 Alaska 32.00% 24.00% 14.00% 29.00%

Mar. 6 Georgia 26.00% 7.00% 47.00% 20.00%

Mar. 6 Idaho 62.00% 18.00% 2.00% 18.00%

Mar. 6 Massachusetts 72.00% 10.00% 5.00% 12.00%

Mar. 6 North Dakota 24.00% 28.00% 8.00% 40.00%

Mar. 6 Ohio 38.00% 9.00% 15.00% 37.00%

Mar. 6 Oklahoma 28.00% 10.00% 27.00% 34.00%

Mar. 6 Tennessee 28.00% 9.00% 24.00% 37.00%

Mar. 6 Vermont 39.00% 25.00% 8.00% 24.00%

Mar. 6 Virginia 60.00% 40.00%

Mar. 10 Kansas 21.00% 13.00% 14.00% 51.00%

Mar. 13 Alabama 29.00% 5.00% 29.00% 35.00%

Mar. 13 Hawaii 44.00% 19.00% 11.00% 25.00%

Date State Romney Paul Gingrich Santorum

Mar. 13 Mississippi 31.00% 4.00% 31.00% 33.00%

Mar. 20 Illinois 47.00% 9.00% 8.00% 35.00%

Mar. 24 Louisiana 27.00% 6.00% 16.00% 49.00%

Apr. 3 Maryland 49.00% 10.00% 11.00% 29.00%

Apr. 3 Washington, D.C. 68.00% 12.00% 11.00%

Apr. 3 Wisconsin 44.00% 11.00% 6.00% 37.00%

Apr. 24 Connecticut 67.00% 13.00% 10.00% 7.00%

Apr. 24 Delaware 56.00% 11.00% 27.00% 6.00%

Apr. 24 New York 62.00% 15.00% 13.00% 10.00%

Apr. 24 Pennsylvaniae 58.00% 13.00% 10.00% 18.00%

Apr. 24 Rhode Island 63.00% 24.00% 6.00% 6.00%

May. 8 Indiana 65.00% 16.00% 6.00% 13.00%

May. 8 North Carolina 66.00% 11.00% 8.00% 10.00%

May. 8 West Virginia 70.00% 11.00% 6.00% 12.00%

May. 15 Nebraska 71.00% 10.00% 5.00% 14.00%

May. 15 Oregon 71.00% 13.00% 5.00% 9.00%

May. 22 Arkansas 68.00% 13.00% 5.00% 13.00%

May. 22 Kentucky 67.00% 13.00% 6.00% 9.00%

May 29 [10] Texas 69.00% 12.00% 5.00% 8.00%

Jun. 5 California 80.00% 10.00% 4.00% 5.00%

Jun. 5 Montana 68.00% 14.00% 4.00% 9.00%

Jun. 5 New Jersey 81.00% 10.00% 3.00% 5.00%

Jun. 5 New Mexico 73.00% 10.00% 6.00% 10.00%

Jun. 5 South Dakota 66.00% 13.00% 4.00% 11.00%

Jun. 26 Utah 93.00% 5.00% 0.00% 2.00%

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Republican Presidential Primary 2012 News Search from January 2012 to June 2012

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Republican Presidential Primary 2012 YouTube Search from January 2012 to June 2012

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Republican Presidential Primary 2012 Web Search from January 2012 to June 2012

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Is it a selection bias?

Someone may argue that the Internet audience that uses Google and You Tube in US is different from the US voting population, and their political preferences are significantly different. This is correct to a certain degree. However, there are a couple of counterarguments. First, the Democratic Primaries and the General Elections show results that are consistent with the ones from Google Trends. Second, we observe evolution of the search statistics to be inline with the timing when the mainstream media has “appointed” the “presumptive nominee” long before the Republican National Convention in August. These charts show that the US Internet audience seems to be a good proxy for the voting US population.

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Republican Presidential Primary 2008 News Search from June 2007 to June 2008

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Democratic Presidential Primary 2008 News Search from June 2007 to June 2008

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Was anything different in 2008? Primary elections in 2008 follow the same rule:

• Dr. Ron Paul was many times more popular in 2007, until a group of candidates from the same popularity bottom was introduced to the public, while Dr. Paul was in blackout by the mainstream corporate media. Thus, we got a “presumptive nominee” as early as in February. The News chart depicts this fact.

• Barack Obama was drifting on the same popularity level with Hillary Clinton, until some mysterious force (may be the mainstream media?) has pushed him far above his main rival.

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Republican Presidential Primary 2008 News Search from January 2008 to June 2008

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Republican Presidential Primary 2008 YouTube Search from January 2008 to June 2008

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Republican Presidential Primary 2008 Web Search from January 2008 to June 2008

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Presidential Republican Primaries 2008 Results by State Date State Huckabee McCain Paul Romney

Jan. 3 Iowa 34% 13% 10% 25%

Jan. 5 Wyoming 0% 0% 0% 67%

Jan. 8 New Hampshire 11% 38% 8% 32%

Jan. 15 Michigan 16% 30% 6% 39%

Jan. 19 Nevada 8% 13% 14% 51%

Jan. 19 South Carolina 30% 33% 4% 15%

Jan. 29 Florida 13% 36% 3% 31%

Feb. 1–3 Maine 6% 21% 18% 52%

Jan. 25 – Feb. 5 Hawaii – – – –

Feb. 5 Alabama 41% 37% 3% 18%

Feb. 5 Alaska 22% 16% 17% 44%

Feb. 5 Arizona 9% 47% 4% 35%

Feb. 5 Arkansas 60% 20% 5% 14%

Feb. 5 California 12% 42% 4% 35%

Feb. 5 Colorado 13% 19% 8% 60%

Feb. 5 Connecticut 7% 52% 4% 33%

Feb. 5 Delaware 15% 45% 4% 33%

Feb. 5 Georgia 34% 32% 3% 30%

Feb. 5 Illinois 17% 47% 5% 29%

Feb. 5 Massachusetts 4% 41% 3% 51%

Feb. 5 Minnesota 20% 23% 16% 41%

Feb. 5 Missouri 32% 33% 5% 29%

Feb. 5 Montana 15% 22% 25% 38%

Feb. 5 New Jersey 8% 55% 5% 28%

Feb. 5 New York 10% 50% 6% 27%

Feb. 5 North Dakota 20% 23% 21% 36%

Date State Huckabee McCain Paul Romney

Feb. 5 Oklahoma 33% 37% 3% 25%

Feb. 5 Tennessee 34% 32% 6% 24%

Feb. 5 Utah 1% 5% 3% 89%

Feb. 9 Kansas 60% 24% 11% 3%

Feb. 9 Louisiana 43% 42% 5% 6%

Feb. 12 District of Columbia 16% 68% 8% 6%

Feb. 12 Maryland 29% 55% 6% 7%

Feb. 12 Virginia 41% 50% 5% 4%

Feb. 19 Washington 24% 50% 8% 16%

Feb. 19 Wisconsin 37% 55% 5% 2%

Mar. 4 Ohio 31% 60% 5% 3%

Mar. 4 Rhode Island 22% 65% 7% 4%

Mar. 4 Texas 38% 51% 5% 2%

Mar. 4 Vermont 14% 72% 7% 5%

Mar. 11 Mississippi 13% 79% 4% 2%

Apr. 22 Pennsylvania 11% 73% 16% –

May. 6 Indiana 10% 78% 8% 5%

May. 6 North Carolina 12% 74% 7% –

May. 13 Nebraska – 87% 13% –

May. 13 West Virginia 10% 76% 5% 4%

May. 20 Kentucky 8% 72% 7% 5%

May. 20 Oregon – 81% 15% –

May. 27 Idaho – 70% 24% –

Jun. 3 South Dakota – – – –

Jun. 3 New Mexico – – – –

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Democratic Presidential Primary 2008 News Search from January 2008 to June 2008

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Democratic Presidential Primary 2008 YouTube Search from January 2008 to June 2008

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Democratic Presidential Primary 2008 Web Search from January 2008 to June 2008

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Presidential Democratic Primaries 2008 Results by State

Date State Clinton Obama Edwards

Jan. 3 Iowa 29% 38% 30%

Jan. 8 New Hampshire 39% 36% 17%

Jan. 15 Michigan 55% – –

Jan. 19 Nevada 51% 45% 4%

Jan. 26 South Carolina 27% 55% 18%

Jan. 29 Florida 50% 33% 14%

Feb. 5 Alabama 42% 56% 1%

Feb. 5 Alaska 25% 75% –

Feb. 5 Arizona 50% 42% 5%

Feb. 5 Arkansas 70% 26% 2%

Feb. 5 California 51% 43% 4%

Feb. 5 Colorado 32% 67% 0%

Feb. 5 Connecticut 47% 51% 1%

Feb. 5 Delaware 42% 53% 1%

Feb. 5 Georgia 31% 66% 2%

Feb. 5 Idaho 17% 80% 1%

Feb. 5 Illinois 33% 65% 2%

Feb. 5 Kansas 26% 74% 0%

Feb. 5 Massachusetts 56% 41% 2%

Feb. 5 Minnesota 32% 66% 0%

Feb. 5 Missouri 48% 49% 2%

Feb. 5 New Jersey 54% 44% 1%

Feb. 5 New Mexico 49% 48% 1%

Feb. 5 New York 57% 40% 1%

Feb. 5 North Dakota 37% 61% 1%

Feb. 5 Oklahoma 55% 31% 10%

Date State Clinton Obama Edwards

Feb. 5 Tennessee 54% 40% 4%

Feb. 5 Utah 39% 57% 3%

Feb. 9 Louisiana 36% 57% 3%

Feb. 9 Nebraska 32% 68% –

Feb. 9 Washington 31% 68% –

Feb. 10 Maine 40% 59% –

Feb. 12 District of Columbia 24% 75% 0%

Feb. 12 Maryland 36% 61% 1%

Feb. 12 Virginia 35% 64% 1%

Feb. 19 Hawaii 24% 76% 0%

Feb. 19 Wisconsin 41% 58% 1%

Mar. 4 Ohio 53% 45% 2%

Mar. 4 Rhode Island 58% 40% 1%

Mar. 4 Texas 44% 56% –

Mar. 4 Vermont 39% 59% 1%

Mar. 8 Wyoming 38% 61% –

Mar. 11 Mississippi 37% 61% 1%

Apr. 22 Pennsylvania 55% 45% –

May. 6 Indiana 51% 49% –

May. 6 North Carolina 42% 56% –

May. 13 West Virginia 67% 26% 7%

May. 20 Kentucky 66% 30% 2%

May. 20 Oregon 41% 59% –

Jun. 3 Montana 41% 56% –

Jun. 3 South Dakota 55% 45% –

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Presidential General Election 2012 News Search from July 2012 to Dec. 2012

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Presidential General Election 2012 YouTube Search from July 2012 to Dec. 2012

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Presidential General Election 2012 Web Search from July 2012 to Dec. 2012

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What about General Elections?

The General Elections 2008 and 2012 and are consistently boring in their predictability by the Google Trends?

The only bright spot the jump in Romney’s “popularity” in the News searches right after the election on November 6th, 2012, which was probably due to his “unexpected” loss. This is exactly what happens when you mess up with the Primaries: you lose the General Election.

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Presidential General Election 2008 News Search from July 2008 to Dec. 2008

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Presidential General Election 2008 YouTube Search from July 2008 to Dec. 2008

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Presidential General Election 2008 Web Search from July 2008 to Dec. 2008

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Conclusion?

There is no scientific statistical conclusion here, since the dataset of election results is small, and some other factors may cause this discrepancy between Google Trends and the official election results. Feel free to hypothesize about these factors. If you like this presentation, feel free to distribute it in the Internet.

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Sources

• Google Trends Explore

http://www.google.com/trends/explore

• Results of the Republican Party presidential primaries, 2012

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2012

• Results of the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries

• Results of the 2008 Republican Party presidential primaries

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_2008_Democratic_Party_presidential_primaries

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