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Golf Business Update 2012 and The Opportunity for Growth . Rounds Played. Rounds Played – 2012 YTD (Up 5.7% Nationally) . (% Change from previous year through December). Mountain (+7.0%). West N Central (+7.6%). New England (+3.2%). East N Central (+10.8%). Pacific (+1.6%). - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Golf Business Update 2012and
The Opportunity for Growth
2
Rounds Played
3
Rounds Played – 2012 YTD (Up 5.7% Nationally)
+2.0% or higher+1.9% to -1.9%-2.0% or lower
(% Change from previous year through December)
New England (+3.2%)
Mid Atlantic(+10.1%)
South Atlantic(+2.4%)
South Central(+5.0%)
Pacific(+1.6%)
Mountain(+7.0%) West N
Central(+7.6%) East N
Central(+10.8%)
Source: Golf Datatech National Rounds Played Report in cooperation with PGA Performance Trak and the NGF.Based on a sample of approximately 4,000 reporting facilities
4
Factors Underlying Jump in Rounds
• Weather! PGA Performance Trak reports playable days
up over 6.5% nationally
• Consumer Confidence and Spending Consumer confidence & spending have
been gradually rising as the recession driven “hunker down” mentality starts to fade
5
Rounds Volume
Source: Golf Datatech National Rounds Played Report
% Change Year Over Year
5.7%
6
Golf Participation
7
Golf Participation in Canada
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20117
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
16
15 15
15.9
11.3
15.3 15.3
14.415 15
16
13.3 13.413 13
13.3
BC Linear (BC) Canada
8
Short Term Participant TrendParticipants (MM)
Core Occasional TOTAL1-yr Change -2.7% 0.0% -1.5%5-yr Change -17.7% -8.1% -13.8%30.0 29.8 29.5 28.6
27.1 26.1 25.7
44%
56%
Source: NGF golf participation study
9
Core Golfers in Canada
Ontario Alberta BC Canada
6.3 6.65.3 5.3
3.8
5.3
3.6 3.6
5.2
4.9
5.54.4
10+ times3 - 9 times1 -2 times
10
Golf Course Development
11
Number of facilities
Source: NGF
Growth of Golf Facilities
Private
Daily Fee
Municipal
12
Net Change in Supply
Net Change = new course openings minus permanent closures (18HEQ), not factoring in courses closing for, or reopening from, renovations
Source: NGF Facility Tracking
International Golf Course Supply
199 Golfing Countries
North America 18,41054%
TOTAL 33,331
South America 6032%
Oceania 2,0146%
Asia 4,42513%
Europe 7,01421%
Africa 8653%
14
Looking Ahead
15
Consumer Confidence Index
Source: The Conference Board
through January 2013Index currently stands at 58.6
90 = Normal
16Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis - Last Revised on: October 26, 2012
Consumer Spending ImprovingReal Personal Consumption Expenditure Index
[Index numbers, 2005=100] Seasonally
adjusted
The Opportunity For Growth
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Definition: People who express an interest in playing golf, but have not yet started.
Latent Demand
Source: NGF/Synovate
HOW INTERESTED: Very 6 MMSomewhat 19 MMA Little 47 MM
Percent of non-golfing population over age 6
Q: How interested are you in playing golf now?
19
Latent Demand Segments
Source: NGF/Synovate
Beginners (Never Played)
Those With Some Experience (Never Committed)1
Former Committed Golfers2
(1) Classified themselves as “Not” or “OK” (2) Classified themselves as “Fun”, “Hooked” or “Nut”
12
9
4
25
LatentVery/
Somewhat Interested
47%
37%
16%
100%
Percent
OfLatent
20
Demographics of Latent Demand
Source: NGF/Synovate
Golf’s latent demand skews:
• Female (48% versus 19% of all golfers)
• Average Income <$50K (44% versus 23% of all golfers)
• Younger – Under 30(43% versus 28% of all golfers)
21
Lapsed Participants
Source: NGF/Synovate
Definition: People age 18-69 who have not played in the past two years, but played at some point in the past
Lapsed Participants 21.5
Million
Lifetime golf experience of Nots and OKs:
Played 1-2: 31%Played 3-9: 42%Played 10+: 27%
22
Demographics of Lapsed Participants
Source: NGF/Synovate
Lapsed participants skew:
• Female (41% versus 19% of all golfers)
• Average Income <$50K (38% versus 23% of all golfers)
Understanding Commitment to Golf
From the “Nuts” to the “Nots”
24
*Average among those who keep score (79% of occasional; 95% of core)Source: NGF/Synovate
25.7 MillionGolfers
14.4 MCORE
(8+ Rounds)
11.3 MOCCASIONAL(1-7 Rounds)
• 6% of Rounds• 7% of Spend
• 94% of Rounds• 93% of Spend
Traditional View
25
I’m a “golf nut,” I love the game and it’s my favorite activity
I’m “hooked,” it’s one of my favorite things to do
I’m a “casual” golfer – it’s one of several ways I like to spend my recreational time
Golf is OK, but I most often choose to do something else with my recreational time
I don’t really consider myself a golfer, I play rarely and usually only at the urging of others
Commitment Levels
NUTS
HOOKED
CASUAL
FRINGE
NOTS
26Source: NGF/Synovate
25.7 MillionGolfers
Impact of Commitment
NOTS FRINGE CASUAL HOOKED NUTS
Golfers (MM) 2.3 3.3 11.3 6.2 2.6
Rounds 2% 4% 29% 41% 24%
Spend 3% 3% 32% 40% 22%
Rounds/Year 3 5 11 29 41
Avg Score 107 107 103 95 94
RetentionLikelihood* 38% 73% 93% 98% 97%
* Percent who say they will be playing in 2 years (Top 2 Box) unless physically unable
27Source: NGF/Synovate
Frequency vs. Commitment Segments
Commitment Category
CORE(8+ Rounds)
OCCASIONAL(1-7 Rounds)
Commitment Category
CasualCasualFringe
Fringe
28
Attraction to the Game
Source: NGF/Synovate% mentioned as “one of the main reasons I like golf”
Reasons golfers like golf:
Nuts Hooked Casual Fringe NotsThe opportunity to spend time outdoors (nature, fresh air, etc) 59% 64% 54% 40% 47% 54%The social aspect – spending time with friends & family doing something we enjoy 55% 52% 46% 30% 37% 46%Ball striking – the feeling you get when you hit a great shot 60% 58% 40% 28% 15% 43%The challenge of the game – striving to improve – it’s never-ending 77% 62% 36% 17% 19% 42%The exercise – getting out for a good walk – staying active 44% 49% 44% 31% 33% 42%Stress relief – getting away from my every day pressures – an escape 47% 42% 36% 18% 20% 34%Golf courses – the variety of designs, scenery, landscape, etc. 54% 51% 28% 19% 21% 34%The values of the game (honesty, integrity, sportsmanship, etc.) 55% 33% 23% 7% 12% 25%The mental game – thinking my way around the course 52% 34% 23% 11% 8% 25%The competition – competing – the winning and losing 53% 26% 13% 6% 5% 18%Keeping score – measuring my performance against the course/previous rounds 47% 30% 10% 7% 5% 17%The game’s history & tradition - it’s one of the oldest sports in the world 42% 21% 9% 7% 5% 14%Practicing – spending time on the range or practice facility working on my game 35% 22% 9% 5% 6% 14%Opportunity to spend time with business clients/colleagues away from the offi ce 23% 11% 12% 10% 10% 12%
29
Demographics
Source: NGF/Synovate
Not Fringe Casual Hooked Nuts
Male 7% 11% 43% 28% 11% 100%Female 17% 20% 44% 13% 6% 100%
Average Age 39 37 44 50 46
HH Income (000) $73 $92 $86 $84 $88
College graduate 64% 68% 61% 65% 64%
Married/ living with partner 73% 74% 69% 72% 67%
Have Kids at home 37% 35% 34% 26% 25%
30
Completely Agree
The Underpinnings of Commitment
Source: NGF/Synovate
Correlation (r)(with
Commitment)
.46
.42
.42
.42
(5 on a 5 point scale)
HookedCasualFringe
COMPETENCE
COMFORT
31
Competence & Comfort Lead to Retention
“Comfort” Index by Retention Likelihood*
* Likelihood to be playing 2 years from nowCompetence/Comfort factors scored and indexed to Hooked Golfers (100)
Source: NGF/Synovate
32
It Comes Down to Having Fun
Q. All things considered, how much FUN is golf for you? (0-10 Scale; 10 = Really Fun)
FUN
COMMITMENT
% Top 3 Box (8-10)
Source: NGF/Synovate
33
… and Perceiving Value
Fun Rating
Valu
e Ra
ting
Source: NGF/Synovate
34
Commitment = Prioritization
COMMITMENT
AVERAGE
Avg. Income $73K $92K $86K $84K $88KSource: NGF/Synovate
Implications for Growing the Game