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T H E T I M E F A C T O R

Gold price outlook – 2016 Special Edition Gold Report

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Very important information – please read this first

Thank you for purchasing this Special Time Factor Edition – Gold Report. I hope you have as much fun working through this as I had putting it together.

The objective of this analysis This analysis is designed to build upon the learnings and teachings described in volumes 1 and 2 of Trading with the Time Factor. Specifically, it applies the teachings from each chapter of the course (where relevant) and how the techniques have been working in your chosen market.

This course is not personal or general advice This analysis should not be construed in any way as personal or general advice. I am not a licenced financial adviser, nor do I know your individual financial circumstances. The contents of this document are strictly educational material only and provides an analysis on how the techniques described in Trading with the Time Factor can be applied to analyse your chosen market. This analysis is not intended to encourage you to take a trade in a particular market or deal in a financial product. If you are looking for financial advice, please consult someone who is appropriately qualified to do so.

Contents are strictly confidential The contents of this analysis are strictly confidential and for your own use and perusal. They must not be disseminated, shared or reproduced in any way without my prior written consent.

I have spent hours upon hours researching and refining the concepts taught and described in Trading with the Time Factor, and a number of hours have gone into applying those techniques to this analysis which you see now and which has been created especially for you.

No guarantee of financial returns This analysis is not advising you on how to implement a particular investment strategy or how to invest in your chosen market. That is a decision strictly for you to make and for you to enjoy the full reward of any returns that you create.

The value of any investment and the income derived from it can go down as well as up. Please, never investment any more than you can afford to lose.

Past performance is no guarantee of future performance Just because a trading system or trading methodology has produced returns in the past, does not necessarily mean that it will replicate those returns in the future. Trading is a dynamic speculation and can produce losses as well as profits.

Now that all of that is out of the way… let’s begin!

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Section 1 – identifying the trend

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Identifying the trend

Spot Gold – XAUUSD (weekly chart from 2005) The 10 year bull market in gold prices ended on 6 Sep 2011, with bullion reaching a final high of $1920/oz. In volume 2 of Trading with the Time Factor, I illustrated how to calculate the end of the bull market using the time cycle from the 20 year bear market that preceded this record breaking bull run.

Immediately following the all-time high, gold consolidated in a side-ways market trading pattern for over a year – this is highlighted by the yellow circle markers (see chart, right).

Whilst the all-time high came in Sep 2011, it wasn’t until early in 2013 that gold commenced its spectacular bear market run.

When the major bull market trend line which had held gold prices in an upward trend for over 4 years (right) was finally broken, this was your confirmation that the gold bull market was well and truly over, and a period of lower gold prices was destined by the Time Factor to follow.

Gold since then has certainly displayed the characteristics of a bear market. Lower tops (green) and lower bottoms (red) have been consistent since early 2013, making trend identification of this market easy.

Bear market commenced here

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Identifying the trend (cont…)

Spot Gold – XAUUSD (weekly chart from 2011) Zooming in on the chart, and we can see that the recent price rally in 2016 has made a higher top for the first time since the bear market in gold began. This is significant, as it is the first signal of a potential change in trend.

To provide added confirmation that the bear market might be over, we will want to see a higher bottom to confirm above the 4 Dec 2015 low.

The best buying opportunities at the start of a new bull market (or major counter-trend rally) will occur once a secondary (higher) bottom is formed. This is what we should be on the look out for now, using our trading to Time indicators and price resistance levels to determine when this secondary low gets set.

Based on my trading to Time indicators, I expect a potential top in the gold market on 11 Mar 2016, before a retracement will occur that can provide a buying opportunity.

If a secondary low is confirmed, and the market breaks through to new highs above the potential 11 Mar top, I would expect higher prices to continue for at least the next 12 months in gold prices.

First higher top since 2011

4 Dec 2015 low

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Looking for a secondary bottom

Spot Gold – XAUUSD (daily chart) Up until now, the trend in gold has been down. If we had been simply following the rule to “trade with the trend”, you would have made easy money in the gold market over the last 3 ½ years.

In a bear market such as this, any long trades need to be taken cautiously. This is still the case. Always exercise tight risk management and try to cover your positions where you can to minimise risk.

With a higher top being formed, we have the first sign that the major bear market might be over – at least for the next 12 to 24 months. To confirm this, we want a secondary bottom formation to present itself.

The secondary bottom formation pattern is simple to identify. We simply want a higher bottom to establish above the 4 Dec 2015 at $1,047/oz.

WD Gann often spoke that this was the safest place to buy in a changing trend market. I agree wholeheartedly with this.

We will therefore need to use our price retracement levels and repeating ranges of price to identify the support levels where a secondary bottom might take place, and where long trades can be initiated.

4 Dec 2015 low

Secondary bottom formation pattern

11 Mar 2016 top?

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Other contents include: - the most important trend lines to watch in gold - gold price forecast for 2016 – where gold prices are headed next - the working Fibonacci retracement points in gold - ‘trading to Time’ – the major dates in gold for future tops and bottoms in 2016 - the next major time frame in gold (Oct 2016) - the Predictive Price model outlook for gold until 2019 - a step by step guide on to trade the 15 Oct top and the 3 Dec low

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