World at Risk Case Studies

Sri Lanka TsunamiBackground: 26th of December 2004 Earthquake off the coast of Sumatra, Indonesia 9 on Richter ScaleWhy Was Sri Lanka so Vulnerable? Only a small population attend school which teaches them about how to spot tsunamis When the waves receded people went out to collect shells Gamini Hettiarchchi (Head of Disaster Management Centre Sri Lanka) No formal warning system Lacks money for adequate earthquake detector Destruction of mangroves, no more natural barrier Kapunhenwala mangroves and 2 deaths Wanduruppa no mangroves and 6000 deathsCause of Tsunami: Earthquakes along the Indian and Burma plate 1,200km of crust rushed upwards displacing the water Tsunami reached speeds of up to 900km/h and of heights up to 30mAffects: Death toll over 30,000 Many locals living on the coast were killed or affected 1,500,000 people have been displaced (8% of population) Outbreak of waterborne deaths such as cholera Tourist death toll was around 9000 Tourism suffered 3-5 years after as visitors were fearful Short term: High mortality rate Loss of farming and livelihoods Loss of arming animals Destruction of tourist areas and facilities Cutting off of transport and communication to affected areas Long term: Water supply affected as wells destroyed Seawater poured into some wells Mental effects for those that experienced it Christian Aid and Rebuilding Sri Lanka have been working in Sri Lanka 259km2 of paddy field destroyed Long term damage for main industry of agricultureAll Countries: 13 countries damaged Total cost of $7.5 billion $7 billion in international aid promised

Hazard ExamplesPakistan Floods 2010: 2010 rains during monsoon season was unusually intense 1/5 of the country, along the Indus River, was under flood water Fast moving trough in sub-tropical jet stream and monsoon season High levels of illegal logging and deforestation increased run-off Could also be a symptom of global warming Human Factors: 2/3 of population dependent on farming Many people live in close proximity to rivers 40% of Pakistanis live below the poverty line Poor infrastructure Swat valley weakened by 2005 earthquakes Slow response by President Zardari Pakistani Army slow to rebuild bridges deliver aid and set up refugee camps Slow international response because of donor fatigue due to Haiti earthquakes Impacts: Affected more people than boxing day tsunami and Haiti earthquake combined 1,600 dead 1.2 million homes damaged Damage of 11,000 schools, resulting in a lack of education for a generation Outbreaks of diarrhoea, dehydration and cholera 15% fall in Pakistans cotton crop Losses cost billions of dollars

Big Dry 2002: Murray-Darling Basin in Australia, El Nino year Provides 40% of Australias agricultural produces and 75% of Australias water Environmental impacts: Destruction of crops, farmland and harvests Toxic algal outbreaks Increasing bushfires and dust-storms Social impacts: Increased rural suicide rate Increased rural-urban migration Water bills increased by 20% in 2008 Water restrictions in all major cities Economic impacts: 1% decline in economy Increased in commodity pricesResponseCaribbean Savage Storms 2004: Cuba Part of national security and have world class meteorological institute Within 48 hours those vulnerable are contacted and escape routes planned Within 12 hours people evacuated using public transport Well-educated population on hurricane dangers Only 4 people died Haiti Suffers floods and landslides Political instability Extreme poverty Poor education levels Up to 3000 people killedPrevention in Japan: 1st September is Disaster Prevention Day Schools carry out evacuation drills Yokohama landmark tower: Flexible structure to absorb forces of earthquakes Sits on rollers Active mass damper systemPrevention in Australia: Ash Wednesday bushfire in 1983 killed 75 and covered 400,000 hectares 2006-7 bushfires killed 4 and covered double to area Controlled burning: Regular burning of leaf litter to reduce fuel for bushfires Education programmes: People are educated on what to do in a bushfire People are educated on systems to protect themselves and their housesResponse during Sandy: Largest hurricane on record Within days more than 800 personnel assisted $351 million for relief and recovery Installed more than 200 emergency generators FEMA began to place staff in predicted areas before the storm hit The American Red Cross initially mobilized more than 1,000 disaster workers in communities up and down the East Coast. Local Red Cross chapters provided shelters for those in need of housing. Federal government responded by doling out more than $60 billion in total emergency spending

PhilippinesBackground: 7000 islands Population of 91 million $5000 GDP per capita MIC Very mountainous with coastal lowlands Lies within 5-20 of equator 90% of the population live on 11 of the islandsVulnerability: Political: Many different political groupings Guerrilla insurgencies in the south Moro Islamic liberation front also in the south Communist new peoples army Economic: Range of industries from agriculture to oil Still recovering from 2008 recession Tourism brings investment however easily destroyed Manila is an economic hub Social: Population explosion Highest birth rate in asia Environmental: Deforestation Logging Mining which leads to unstable land Physical: On major plate boundary Philippines and Eurasian Northern and Eastern coast faces typhoon-prone Pacific Ocean Landslides very common in mountainous areas 20 active volcanoesVolcanoes: Eurasian plate subsides under Philippine plate Mount Pinatubo: 1991 30km exclusion zone 200,000 evacuated Death and injury toll: 4300 350 died, 77 in the lahars 80,000 hectares of farmland lost US$710 million lost Thought to have a global cooling affect 1900-2012: 25 events 2,996 killed 1,734,907 affected Losses of US$ 232 millionEarthquakes: 1900-2012 24 events 9,693 killed 2,543,574 affected Losses US$ 528.5 million 2006 Earthquake Killed 15, injured 100 Generated tsunami 3m high This trigged a landslide which breached a crater wall of Parker Volcano This fell into Maughen Lake and caused floodingLandslide: Due to it being prone to floods and earthquakes, landslides are frequent Guinsaugon: 2006 Mudslide engulfed village, killed 1150 people Covered 3km2 of land Unseasonable torrential rain La Nina year 2.6 earthquakes Deforestation in that area caused unstable hillsidesTyphoons: 20 per year In the Asia Typhoon Belt Haiyan: Causes Up to 235 mph winds 300 miles wide Deadliest on record 20ft high storm surges Super typhoon Warm water and no wind in pacific Impacts 14.1 million affected Over 6000 dead 1,779 missing 4.1 million displaced 3.6 billion restoration costs Tacluban completely destroyed Tourist hotspots damaged, e.g. Cebu 187m requested by UN Uk donated 50m, Japan 18.5m 1900-2012 267 events 38,238 killed 114,006,747 affected Economic losses US$ 7 billion (EM-DAT)Other: Storms: 26 events 812 killed 3,110,501 affected Economic losses US$112 million Floods: 38 events 1,147 killed 5,700,690 affected Economic losses US$1 billion Droughts: 8 events Killed 8 Affected 6,553,207 Damage US$ 64.5 millionResponse: Several organisations established National disaster Co-ordinating Council Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology Land use planning Building regulations Structural program of defenses

CaliforniaBackground: 450,000km2 Population of 30 million $65,000 GDP per capita in 2006 HIC Coastal landscape with mountainsVulnerability: Human: Large population and living in high risk areas e.g. Hollywood Hills High economic value of land e.g. Silicon Valley is worth $168 billion Physical: In El Nino area Faces pacific Located on San Andreas fault San Gabriel is prone to floodingEarthquakes: Pacific and North America plates moving together creating friction San Francisco built over two fault lines 1906: 8.2 earthquake destroyed all of San Francisco More than 70% of Californias population live within 50km of a fault line. 1989: 17 October Magnitude of 7.1 Epicentre was Lorna Prieta, Santa Cruz 5.2 aftershock 63 killed, 13,757 injured 1018 homes destroyed Cost of $6 billion 1994: 17 January 6.7 magnitude Located in San Fransisco valley 57 deaths, 1500 serious injuries 12,500 buildings damaged 48,500 without water 30km of traffic

2014: 5.1 then 4.1 earthquakes Displaced 50, no injured Scientists believe there is a 99% chance that a devastating earthquake will hit California before 2030Other: No volcanic eruptions since 1915, but many large volcanoes e.g. Yellowstone Earthquakes under the Pacific Ocean could cause a tsunami along the California coastline Flooding in San Gabriel river and Los Angeles with deforested hill slides Now highly channelized rivers but floods between October and January Winter storms due to El Nino Coastal erosions and flooding near Malibu and Santa Monica Long Beach is subsiding Droughts possible, especially in La Nina years Increased population but shortage of water Wildfires in October 2007 killed 22 and destroyed 1300 homes Landslides in hill areas Fog and pollution combine to create photochemical smog

LondonTornadoes: Likely to form in UK when cold air moves rapidly south over warmer land or sea December 2006: Tornado hit Kensal Rise, North London No deaths, 5 minor injuries Manor School evacuated, roof and swimming pool destroyed High insurance costsFloods: At high risk, mainly areas close to the Thames Prolonged rainfall creates fast run-off due to impermeable surfaces Sudden storms can cause torrential rainfall and causing a backlog of drains Storm surges in the Thames can flood embankment however the Thames flood barrier protects the heart of London Great floods in 2000 caused 1.4 billion in damage 700,000 properties at risk, built up, heavy rainfall and lots of surface runoff causes floods. As well as fluvial and tidal flooding along the Thames. July 2007: Parts of south London were hard-hit on 20 July. Most of the London Underground suffered severe delays, many roads were forced to close and the overground rail network struggled to cope with the evening rush hour. Heavy rain and flash floods also led to 141 flights in and out of Heathrow Airport being cancelled that day. New developments in the Thames Estuary will be at risk from flooding

Droughts: South East and London are seriously water stressed Very dry winters and low groundwater levels Current demand for water is 800ml/d greater than available supply Growing population and hotter summers Temporary water ban 4th April 2012Heatwaves: London is dense and built up Microclimate amplifies the effect of hot weather Central London up to 10 hotter than surrounding land 2003 heat wave: Temperatures up to 38.5 600 secondary deaths Architects are building special adapted, cooler buildings

Earthquakes: Risk is far greater than appreciated Magnitude 5 earthquake ever 100 years in UK Londons clay soil amplifies shaking 1850: Tremor over Dover Straits Damaged large number of buildings in London 2 killedOther: 14 exotic disease outbreaks in last decade Pandemic fly is a huge risk due to dense population At high risk of terrorist attack e.g. 7 July bombings

The ArcticChanges 2-3 increase especially in Siberia and Alaska Sea cover of polar ice decreased over 20% since 1979 Thinned by almost half since 1950 Sea ice has 90% albedo, water has 40% 3-4C warming since the 1950s 6-8C warming by 2100 considered a distinct possibility Increased river discharge 10% decline in snow cover since late 1970s 10-20% decline in snow cover expected by 2070 Precipitation increased 8% since 1900, mostly as rain; further increases expected Permafrost has warmed by 2C since 1970s; shifts northward of the permafrost zone of 100s km are expected. Impacts on Natural Systems Vegetation shifts Shifting northwards Coniferous forest encroaching on tundra Longer, warmer growing season Siberia Greater snowfall Increased annual freshwater runoff 15% arctic ocean rise Coastal and wetland bog ecosystems expanding Thawing permafrost 40% expected to thaw Release large quantities of Methane Lakes and rivers may drain as ground beneath thaws Increasing fires and insects Increase forest fires and insect caused tree death Alien species may invade UV impacts Increased UV which will destroy phytoplankton Carbon cycle changes Increased uptake of carbon dioxide

Impacts on Animal Species Northward species shift Species will shift with forests e.g. mountain pine beetles Some species may see major decline Marine species Dependent on sea ice including polar bears Birds may have different migration patterns Many at risk of extinction Water temperatures may exceed thermal tolerance for some species Land species Land species adapted to Arctic at risk e.g. arctic fox, snowy owlImpacts on Society Threat to 155,000 Inuit living in Arctic 24 villages threatened by flooding Greater pressure on caribou stocks Loss of hunting and decline in food security for indigenous people Need for herd animals to change their migration routes Decline in northern freshwater fisheries Enhanced marine fisheries Increasing access for marine shifting Enhanced agriculture and forestry industry Large areas of snow and ice melt leading to areas becoming more accessible Increased opportunities for tourism

AfricaEffects: Makes the least contribution to global warming Temperatures are predicted to rise by 3-4 above mean global change Increased precipitation in equatorial zone Decreased precipitation north and south of equator Increased season rainfall Continent 0.5 warmer than 100 years ago Part of Kenya has become 3.5 hotter than 20 years ago Stern review predicts average rise of 2.4-5.4Water: Life dependent on access to water Hydro electric power in many areas 70% subsidence farmers Needed for domestic use Sovereignty issues Water wars International drainage basins e.g. Nile Demand Demand greater than supply For 25% of Africans Some water available but issues of accessNatural Resources: Africa contains 20% of all known species 20-50% face extinction Decreased biodiversity Threat to poor marginal hunter-gatherersFood Insecurity: 70% subsistence farmers at risk Decrease in crop growing times Increased in locust plagues e.g. Madagascar Cereal crop yields could fall 5022% by 2050Health: 80% of treatments rely on wild plants Increase vector borne disease 67 million more people could be at risk from malaria by 2080 Increased in water borne diseases Diarrhoea and cholera Increasing due to humidityCoastal Zones: 60% of people living in coastal zones Increasing numbers of environmental refugees Increasing threat of flooding and erosions Lagos and Accra are at increased flood riskDesertification: Grasslands destroyed Unreliable precipitation Increased soil erosionPoverty: Unfair trade and cash cropping 2/3 countries in Africa are poor Conflict such as Darfur Cant invest as debt burden

Countries Facing Sea Level RisePacific Islands 2000 people have been forced to move from Carteret Island 57,000 people in Marshall Islands live below 1m above sea level 11,000 people in Vanuatu will have to evacuate their homes by the end of the century Kiribati: Tebua lay off Tarawa Atoll but has now disappeared Beaches of Tarawa are flat and very badly eroded People are becoming environmental refugees 17,000 islanders have applied for residency in New ZealandBangladesh Most densely populated country Flood plains of Brahmaputra, Meghna and Ganges Largest system of mega-deltas in the world 80% of the population lie below 1m above sea level Snow melt is increasing flood risk IPCC predict increasing snow melt from Himalayas Increased water temperatures will increase bacteria and water-borne diseases such as cholera Sea level rising causes seawater inundation Could lose up to 20% of land and displace 40 million

Netherlands Made up of coastal lowlands Over 50% reclaimed land 1m rise in sea level will cost $12 billion for the NetherlandsLondon Increasing sea level rises and storm surges may flood London 1 in 1000 year storm surges may occur every 1 in 10 years

Views on CopenhagenJapan: Will cut emissions to 25% below 100- by 2020 Cut of 30% in 10 years Hatoyama initiative increase financial and technical assistance Leader in climate initiatives e.g. Nuclear Superpower statusArab States: Seeking financial aid for oil-producers Keen on a deal that uses carbon capture and storage In 2007 Opec members pledged $750m to fund climate research Qatar and Abu Dhabi investing in clean technologyAmerica: Prepared to work with other countries Didnt want to sign Kyoto as did not force growing economies Will cut emissions to 17% below 2005 levels Against Kyoto-style treaty Do not want to limit economic growth so looking at carbon efficiencyAOSIS: Rising sea levels are threatening existence Do not contribute to climate change Want global emissions to peak by 2015 and fall 85% below 1999 level by 2050China: Rapidly growing economy 30% of population do not believe climate change will affect them or their family Did not have to reduce emissions for Kyoto Low carbon stock, high carbon flow

Climate Change StrategiesLondon: Action Today to Protect Tomorrow - 2007 Reduce carbon emissions to 30% of 1990 levels by 2025 Green house program: Subsidised or free home insulation, improving energy efficiency in existing council houses New building standards for energy efficiency Investing in local, small-scale renewable energy schemes Encouraging waste to energy schemes All 8000 London buses are diesel or electric hybrids Congestion charges Boris bike scheme BedZED Energy conservation in Sutton Carbon-neutral homes Failed in 2005 after months of unreliability Still on market and highly demandedUK: Emissions already fallen 21% below 1990 levels Government put in place the worlds first ever legally binding target to cut emissions at least 80% by 2050 Produce around 30% of our electricity by 2020 Investment in mainly wind energy, offshore

AdaptationNepal Relies on mainly HEP for power Forest conservation With money from government: Small-scale irrigation systems

Sustainable DevelopmentRenewable Energy Schemes Hydropower in Kenya Hydroelectric schemes in Kathama and Thima Electricity to over 200 households Warmth for chicken farmers so increased productivity Saves 42 tonnes of carbon dioxide Developed by Practical Action Jepirachi Wind Power Project North-eastern Colombia 15 windmills on land belonging to the Wayun, one of Colombias poorest peoples Energy used to power a desalination plantLow Carbon Wolvercote Whole village including ClimateXchange, Oxfordshire Each roach has waste champions who organise rubbish swaps to recycling centre Information circulated on the ten most effective ways to reduce CO2 emissions Green transport strategies introduced Cloth bags available in shopsMachakos and Makueni Christian aid and Benevolent Institute of Development Initiatives Building fences to contain water and combat soil erosion Developing composting skills Constructing rain-fed irrigation systems via tanks and gullies Experimenting with new cropsIndia and China Critical roll to play because of size and rapid economic growth Indias greenhouse gas emissions could increase by 70% by 2025 Increase in Chinas emissions from 2000 to 2030 could equal increase from rest of world Chinas demand for electricity to rise by 2,600 GW by 2050 Indias energy consumption rose by 280% between 1980 and 2001 Nuclear power investments in India Hydropower in China Need to invest in strategies to reduce carbon emissions Pearl River Tower in China is built carbon-neutral