GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Mike Bell, Pierre-Yves Le Traon and the International GODAE Steering Team An assessment of the effectiveness of GODAE and proposals for future coordination GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Assessment of effectiveness of GODAE and its coordination -What aspects of coordination did GODAE get right ? -Recap of Final symposium and some of the achievements during GODAE -Difficulties Recommendations for observing system Proposals for future coordination Demands & opportunities (challenges) Our ambitions Key points / Main ideas Proposed structure Scope and contents GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France What characteristics of GODAE should we seek to continue into the future ? -captured imagination and investment -clear objectives and timetable -ambitious and inclusive -useful meetings and events Can be seen as Positive Lessons learnt What aspects of coordination did GODAE get right ? GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Inspiring rationale, vision and leadership The birth of Argo made the experiment plausible It generated a sense of purpose and excitement at working level It provided confidence to invest at the national programme and individual levels Captured imagination & investment GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Discussions of GODAE COMMON resulted in - collaboration between the operational & research communities (with far reaching consequences) - an open data policy - intercomparisons of analyses and forecasts - sharing of expertise and experience in development of models and configurations and diagnosis of errors demonstrations of utility and the role of intermediate service providers - use of modern methods (web servers, ensembles etc) Not afraid to take calculated risks Mindful of the timetable and objectives Ambitious and inclusive GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Characteristics of IGST -Technical experts put in charge -Focus on scientific advances for operational application -Clear and ambitious but achievable objectives -Global international scope -Constructive & refreshing specialist discussions -Guidance/support/interest from Patrons GODAE Summer School & First Symposium -some excellent review articles and summaries -good introductions to newcomers Useful meetings and events GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Recap of Final Symposium and some of the Achievements During GODAE Structured by the diagram of the Functional Components of GODAE man-years in 6 minutes GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Measurement Network and Data Assembly Measurement Network Satellite (Stan Wilson) In situ (Candyce Clark) Argo (Dean Roemmich) Data Assembly and Processing GHRSST (Craig Donlon) Other data types (Pierre-Yves le Traon) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France MSG (5/10km) N-17/18 AVHRR GAC (9km) N-17/18 AVHRR LAC (1km) GOES-E/W (5km)AMSRE (25/12km) AATSR (1km) GHRSST Data Available in Common format with uncertainty estimates GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Observations assimilated into HYCOM via NCODA 9 October 8 November 2008 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France a.Float: R :0.88 rms -diff: 26.8 % b. Float: R: 0.00 rms-diff: % Altimeter Sea Level Anomaly and Argo Dynamic Height Anomaly time series for two Argo floats (from Guinehut et al., 2008) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Data and Product Servers Capabilities developed (Frederique Blanc) Underpinning technologies (Jon Blower) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France MERSEA: Download services (via OPeNDAP) THREDDS Data servers From TAC/MFC Relevant datasets Search and subset criteria Search and download GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Open Geospatial Web Services (plus many more, inc. Sensor Observation Service) Web Coverage Service Gridded data (rasters) Web Map Service Map imagery (PNG, JPG, GIF) Web Feature Service Simple features Complex features GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Assimilation Centres GODAE systems in operation (Eric Dombrowsky) Ocean data assimilation systems (Jim Cummings) Advances in modelling (Eric Chassignet) Global mesoscale analyses & forecasts (Harley Hurlburt) Regional mesoscale analyses & forecasts (Masa Kamachi) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France The Modelling Components OGCMDomainsHoriz. ResVert. GridForcing BLUELINKMOM4Global1/10 - 147 z-levelsGASP 3-h C-NOOFSNEMOCanada Atl.1/450 z-levelsEC/GEM 1-h ECCOMITGlobal1x0.3 - 146 z-levelsNCEP FOAMNEMOGlobal+Reg1/4G - 1/12R50 z-levelsUKMO 6-h HYCOM Global1/1232 hybridNOGAPS 3-h NLOM/NCOMNLOM/POMGlobal1/32 - 1/87 42 hybridNOGAPS NMEFCLAP/CASTro. Pacific2x114 z-levelsNCEP+clim MERCATORNEMOGlobal+Reg1/4G - 1/12R50 z-levelsECMWF 1-d MFSNEMOMediterranean1/1671 z-levelsECMWF 6-h MOVE/MRIMRI.COMGlobal+Reg1G - 1/2- 1/1050 z-levelsJMA 6-h RTOFSHYCOMNorth Atlantic4-18km26 hybridNCEP 3-h TOPAZHYCOMAtl+Arctic11-16km22 hybridECMWF 6-h GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France The Assimilation Components SchemeSST obsSSH obsIn Situ + Other BLUELINKBODAS EnOIAMSR-EJason 1+EnvisatT/S Profiles C-NOOFSNone ECCOKalman Filt/SmNoneJason 1T Profiles + Clim FOAMAnal. Cor. + IAUOSTIAJ1+Envisat+GFOT/S Prof. + ice conc HYCOMNCODA MVOISat+In situJ1+Envisat+GFOT/S Prof. + ice conc NLOM/NCOMMODAS OI NudMCSST (NLOM)J1+Envisat+GFOMODAS T/S (NCOM) NMEFCOVALS 3DVARReynoldsJason 1T/S Profiles MERCATORSAM2 SEEKRTG SSTJ1+Envisat+GFOT/S Profiles MFS3DVAR+EOFsAVHRR mapsJ1+Envisat+GFOT/S Profiles MOVE/MRI3DVAR+EOFsMGDSSTJ1+EnvisatT/S Profiles RTOFS3DVAR+Vert 1DSat +In SituJason 1+EnvisatT/S Profiles TOPAZEnKF (100 mbs)RTG SSTDUACS MAPSIce conc. + Drift GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Sea Surface Height (SSH) Variability From satellite altimetry (CLS) From a 1/12 Mercator Ocan simulation without data assimilation (using the NEMO model) (in m 2 ) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France 1/12 HYCOM SSH with drifting buoys overlaid 10 October 8 November 2008; only temperature assimilated from drifting buoys GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Product Assessment & Research Users Ocean state estimate for climate (Tony Lee) Observing System Evaluations (Peter Oke) Validations and intercomparsions (Fabrice Hernandez) Biogeochemistry and ecology (Pierre Brasseur) Coastal modelling & applications (Pierre de Mey) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France NO ALTIM NO Argo NO SST NO DATAALL DATA Complementary data types: mesoscale prediction Oke, P. R., and A. Schiller (2007): Impact of Argo, SST and altimeter data on an eddy-resolving ocean reanalysis. Geophys. Res. Lett., 34, L19601, doi: /2007GL No SSTNo ALTIM 1/10 o Bluelink system 6-month long OSEs starting December 2005 GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Decadal change of N. Atl. MOC at 26N estimated by ECMWF ocean reanalysis product (Balmaseda, Smith, and Haines, et al. 2007) Assimilation improves comparison with observational analysis Bryden et al. (2005) Cunningham et al. (2007) Large month-to-month variability and related uncertainty in model & data. Complex structure of trends (both in vertically & meridionally). Upper-ocean warming enhances vertical T gradient to offset weakening MOC. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Data-based validation of coastal- ocean systems Influence of downscaling and DA at outer shelf mooring site (P14, RSMAS) Climatological and cruise-data water mass verification (P28, MERCATOR) Coastal buoy hourly surface currents (P30, ESEOO) ESEOAT GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Application Centres & Users Pollution Monitoring & Prediction (Bruce Hackett) Safety & effectiveness of operations at sea (Fraser Davidson) Asia and Oceania applications (Jiang Zhu) Ocean initialisation for seasonal forecasts (Magdalena Balmaseda) Hurricane intensity forecasting (Gustavo Goni) Navy applications (Greg Jacobs) Offshore Industry (Ralph Rayner) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France NOAA/NCEP intensity prediction Rita (2005) Observed w/o NHC OHC Assimilation With NHC OHC Assimilation GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Accuracy of ocean data Still the main source of oil spill forecast error. GODAE assimilation systems continue to improve forecast accuracy in the blue ocean (e.g., Kuroshio) but still gross errors in some eddy-rich areas. Need more detailed currents in coastal and shelf seas Higher resolution models Nesting is preferable to direct use Tides must be included at some stage Improved forcing from atmosphere (high-resolution, high freq data) Assimilation of current data (HF radar, drifters) Need measures of accuracy to propagate into oil spill forecast results! GODAE & oil spill forecasting Future perspectives Data access and accuracy GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Funding for Argo & altimetry still not secure Development of good quality systems & forecasts took longer than expected Engaging interest of downstream users harder than anticipated Resources did not always match ambition -Many national teams resources were limited or delayed -Heavy reliance on a few special people (Christian, Neville, Michele, ) -Pro-active coordination from Project Office started late Difficulties GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Sustaining the global ocean observing system We need full statements of our prioritised requirements for research, development and operations as well as short-term priorities for advocacy Sustained observations are essential for climate research as well as operational services The observing systems required for climate research and weather forecasting provide much of the backbone of the observation system needed for operational services Global collaboration and coordination is essential to achieve best value for money S & T development of satellite systems that are fully effective and as efficient as possible and hence fit for operational use is a long & demanding process. This is insufficiently recognised and a major factor in funding crises GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France The global ocean observing system recommendations Main requirements based on discussions over the last few years: Sustaining Argo and the global in-situ ocean observing system (GOOS, GCOS, JCOMM) Sustain altimetry. 3-4 altimeters required: only plausible way to initialise ocean mesoscale. Need long term time-series of Jason satellites (climate reference). High precision and all weather SST needed as part of combined satellite/in situ SST measurement system to give highest absolute accuracy (and resolution) (GHRSST strategy) Sea-ice characteristics (microwave, SAR) Ocean colour (visible imagery) and development of an in-situ observing system for biogeochemical parameters using new methods is increasingly important + Extend the observing systems to shelf and coastal zone GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Proposals for future coordination From an experiment towards a long-term ocean&analysis forecasting international program GODAE OceanView GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Evolution of GODAE systems Most GODAE groups have or are now transitioning towards operational or pre-operational status. GODAE systems need continuous improvements and should benefit from scientific & technological advances in data processing, data serving, modeling and data assimilation (incl. evolution of the observing system). GODAE systems are also evolving to satisfy new requirements (e.g. coastal zone and ecosystem monitoring and forecasting, climate monitoring and reanalysis). Challenges require international collaboration and cooperation GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France New societal demands, more pressing requirements for our systems Integrated descriptions of ocean state and characterisation & detection of climate change in the ocean Forecasting in shelf-seas & coastal waters Monitoring and management of the marine environment (including biogeochemistry & ecosystems) Development of improved weather & climate predictions (near coasts, weather, tropical cyclones, monsoons, seasonal and decadal predictions) Assessments of uncertainty in downscaling climate change predictions to coastal regions GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE OceanView Objectives Provide international coordination and leadership in: The consolidation and improvement of global and regional analysis and forecasting systems (physics) The progressive development and scientific testing of the next generation of systems covering bio- geochemical and eco-systems and extending from the open ocean into the shelf sea and coastal waters. The exploitation of this capability in other applications (weather forecasting, seasonal and decadal prediction, climate change detection and its coastal impacts, etc). The assessment of the contribution of the various components of the observing system and scientific guidance for improved design and implementation of the ocean observing system. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Proposals for future coordination: the main/key points Retain a working-level scientific steering team responsible for a program of activities implemented at national level a core activity (modeling and data assimilation) an active Project Office and engaged Patrons group Develop or strengthen Task teams developing new capabilities in cooperation with other relevant international programs (CLIVAR, IMBER, OOPC,..) Links with observing systems (Argo, OST, GHRSST, space agencies) reporting to IOC, GOOS & CEOS Coordinate with and complement the new JCOMM Expert Team on Operational Oceanographic Forecasting Systems (ET-OOFS) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE OceanView Science Team CORE ACTIVITIES. A forum where the main operational and research institutions involved in global ocean analysis and forecasting can develop collaborations and international coordination. TASK TEAMS. These teams will address specific topics of particular importance to GODAE OceanView that require collaboration with international research programs (e.g. OOPC, CLIVAR, IMBER, SOLAS, WCRP) or other groups (e.g. coastal community). JCOMM. Operational aspects related to product harmonization and standardization and links with JCOMM will be carried out by the JCOMM ET-OOFS. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Proposed Initial Task Teams Intercomparison and Validation in cooperation with JCOMM ET-OOFS and CLIVAR GSOP Observing System Evaluation coordinated experiments; new techniques; with OOPC Links with observing system agencies Coastal Ocean and Shelf Seas Coupling open ocean/coastal zone. Seamless transition from the open sea down to the coastal zone. Marine Ecosystem Monitoring and Prediction In cooperation with IMBER Others to be defined later in relation with other communities (e.g. coupled data assimilation NWP community) GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Science Team and Patrons The Science Team will consist of up to 30 members and include leading scientists from operational systems experts in key scientific fields representatives of key components of observing system chairs of Task Teams The Science Team will be co-chaired by Andreas Schiller and Eric Dombrowsky The Patrons group will be invited to Science Team meetings and provide advice on resources and funding priorities GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France Summary Operational oceanography faces many challenges with time scales ranging from weather to climate. It is inherently an international issue, requiring (long term) collaboration. GODAE OceanView will promote the development of ocean modelling and assimilation in a consistent framework to optimize mutual progress and benefit. It will consolidate and improve existing systems and through cooperation with other programs will extend their capabitlies (climate, coastal, ecosystems) and application areas. It will also promote the associated exploitation of improved ocean analyses and forecasts and provide a means to assess the relative contributions of and requirements for observing systems. GODAE Final Symposium, 12 15 November 2008, Nice, France GODAE OceanView Objectives Provide international coordination and leadership in: The consolidation and improvement of global and regional analysis and forecasting systems (physics) The progressive development and scientific testing of the next generation of systems covering bio- geochemical and eco-systems and extending from the open ocean into the shelf sea and coastal waters. The exploitation of this capability in other applications (weather forecasting, seasonal and decadal prediction, climate change detection and its coastal impacts, etc). The assessment of the contribution of the various components of the observing system and scientific guidance for improved design and implementation of the ocean observing system.