GOAL 2019Shrimp Review

James L. AndersonDirector, Institute for Sustainable Food Systems & Professor, Food and Resource Economics

University of FloridaDiego Valderrama, George Mason University

Darryl Jory, Editor Emeritus, Global Aquaculture Alliance

Shrimp Aquaculture Production by World Region (2000-2017)FAO Data

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

Middle East / Northern Africa

Americas

India

China

Southeast Asia

Source: FAO (2019).Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

2006-2012CAGR: 4.4% +2%

+6%+6%

+8%

+10%

World Shrimp Aquaculture Production FAO versus GOAL Data

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Mill

ion

Tons

FAO Data GOAL DataMajor differences are

related to Chinese data

Sources: FAO (2019) and GOAL (2011-2019).Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

Shrimp Aquaculture Production (2000-2021)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

Middle East / NorthernAfricaAmericas

India

China

Sources: FAO (2019) for 2000-2009; GOAL (2011-2018) for 2010-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

2006-2012CAGR: 3.5%

-8%

-6% +1%+6%+20%

+11% +1%+5%

+5%

2015-2021Projected CAGR: 4.9%

Shrimp Aquaculture Production (2000-2021)

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

Middle East / NorthernAfricaAmericas

India

China

2015-18 Projected CAGR: 6.2%

Sources: FAO (2019) for 2000-2009; GOAL (2011-2018) for 2010-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

2006-2012CAGR: 3.5%

-8%

-6% +1%+6%+20%

+11% +1%+5%

+5%

Shrimp Aquaculture Production by World Region (2000-2021)FAO and GOAL Data

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

Middle East / NorthernAfrica Americas

India

China

2015-18 Projected CAGR: 6.2%

2018-21 Projected CAGR: 3.5%

Sources: FAO (2019) for 2000-2009; GOAL (2011-2018) for 2010-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

2006-2012CAGR: 3.5%

-8%

-6% +1%+6%+20%

+11% +1%+5%

+5%

Shrimp Aquaculture Production (2000-2021)

0.00

0.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

4.50

5.25

6.00

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

USD

/lb

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

Middle East / Northern Afr ica

Americas

India

China

Southeast Asia

U.S. End of Year Composite Import Price

+11%

World shrimp farming production increased 11% in 2018.

Data sources for production: FAO (2019) for 2000-2009; GOAL (2011-2018) for 2010-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021. Data source for prices: USDC/NMFS (2019). 2019 End-of-Year Composite Import Price is an estimate.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

-12%

U.S. Composite Import Price declined 12% in 2018

Shrimp Aquaculture Production (2000-2021)

0.00

0.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

4.50

5.25

6.00

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

USD

/lb

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

Middle East / Northern Afr ica

Americas

India

China

Southeast Asia

U.S. End of Year Composite Import Price

+11%

World shrimp farming production increased 11% in 2018.

Data sources for production: FAO (2019) for 2000-2009; GOAL (2011-2018) for 2010-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021. Data source for prices: USDC/NMFS (2019). 2019 End-of-Year Composite Import Price is an estimate.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

-12%

U.S. Composite Import Price declined 12% in 2018

Production of L. vannameiin China Estimates Provided by GOAL Survey Respondents, 2010-2018

Sources: FAO (2019); GOAL (2011-2019).

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Million Tons

Estimate 7

Estimate 6

Estimate 5

Estimate 4

Estimate 3

Estimate 2

Estimate 1

GOAL Average

FAO Estimate

Production of L. vannameiin China Estimates Provided by GOAL Survey Respondents, 2010-2018

Sources: FAO (2019); GOAL (2011-2019).

0.0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.6 1.8

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

Million Tons

Estimate 7

Estimate 6

Estimate 5

Estimate 4

Estimate 3

Estimate 2

Estimate 1

GOAL Average

FAO Estimate

FAO Revised China’s Shrimp Production Estimates DownComparing FAO (2018) vs. FAO (2019) – All Species

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.2

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Mill

ion

Tons

FAO (2018) FAO (2019)

Sources: FAO (2018-2019).Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2013 - 2021

Sources: GOAL (2014-2018) for 2013-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East /Northern Africa

Other

Mill

ion

Tons

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2013 - 2021

Sources: GOAL (2014-2018) for 2013-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East /Northern Africa

Other

Mill

ion

Tons

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Shrimp Aquaculture by Major Producing Regions: 2013 - 2021

Sources: GOAL (2014-2018) for 2013-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Southeast Asia includes Thailand, Vietnam, Indonesia, Bangladesh, Malaysia, Philippines, Myanmar and Taiwan.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2.0

Southeast Asia China India Americas Middle East /Northern Africa

Other

Mill

ion

Tons

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2013 - 2021

Sources: GOAL (2014-2018) for 2013-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

China Thailand Vietnam Indonesia India

Mill

ion

Tons

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Shrimp Aquaculture in Latin America: 2013 - 2021

Sources: GOAL (2014-2018) for 2013-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

Ecuador Mexico Brazil

Thou

sand

Tons

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Ecuador has experienced strong growth in the last few years; expectations through 2021 are positive as well (CAGR = 13% during 2013-2021).

World Shrimp Aquaculture Production by Species (1997-2021)Excluding M. rosenbergii

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

6.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

M. rosenbergii

P. monodon

L. vannamei

Percentages indicate the share of L. vannamei

Sources: FAO (2019) for 1997-2009; GOAL (2011-2018) for 2010-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.

70%

76%

78%

79%

75%

67%

59%

18%

12%

65%

74%

45%

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia by Species (1997-2021)Including M. rosenbergii

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021

Mill

ion

Tons

Other

M. rosenbergii

P. monodon

L. vannamei

Percentages indicate the share of L. vannamei

Sources: FAO (2019) for 1997-2009; GOAL (2011-2018) for 2010-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.

66%

70%

72%73%

71%

63%

53%

0%

0%

60%71%

37%

World Landings of Wild-Caught Shrimp by Species

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Mill

ion

Tons

Others

Atlantic seabob (Xiphopenaeuskoyeri) Northern white shrimp (Penaeussetiferus) Northern brown shrimp (Penaeusaztecus) Banana prawn (Penaeusmerguiensis) Fleshy prawn (Penaeus chinensis)

Northern prawn (Pandalus borealis)

Giant tiger prawn (Penaeusmonodon) Argentine red shrimp (Pleoticusmuelleri) Southern rough shrimp(Trachipenaeus curvirostris) Akiami paste shrimp (Acetesjaponicus)

Source: FAO (2019).

World Production of Shrimp: Capture Fisheries and Aquaculture

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.5

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Mill

ion

Tons

Aquaculture

Capture FisheriesAquaculture accounted for 55%of world shrimp supplies in 2017.

Sources: FAO (2019) and GOAL (2011-2019).Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.China includes freshwater production of L. vannamei.

28%

55%

0.00.51.01.52.02.53.03.54.04.55.05.56.06.57.07.58.08.5

1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017

Mill

ion

Tons

Others

F. chinensis

Pandalus borealis

Pleoticus muelleri

Trachysalambriacurvirostris

Acetes japonicus

P. monodon

L. vannamei

44%

L. vannamei is the most important species in the world, with virtually all production coming from aquaculture.

Sources: FAO (2019) and GOAL (2011-2019).Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.China includes freshwater production of L. vannamei.

World Production of Shrimp by SpeciesCapture Fisheries & Aquaculture Combined

4%

Percentages indicate the share of L. vannamei.

Trade

U.S. Shrimp ImportsDown 12% between 2011-13, Up 39% between 2013-19

- 50

100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Thou

sand

Ton

s

Other

Peru

Argentina

Mexico

China

Thailand

Vietnam

Ecuador

Indonesia

India

Imports from Thailand declined sharply (by 79%) between 2010 and 2019. India and Indonesia have become the top exporters to the U.S. market, accounting for 58% of imports in 2019. India´s exports have increased at a CAGR of 30% between 2008 and 2019.

Source: USDC/NMFS (2019)* Estimate

U.S. Landings of Wild-Caught Shrimp

0

25

50

75

100

125

150

175

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Thou

sand

Ton

s

Others

Pink

White

Brown

Source: USDC/NMFS (2019)

Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import PricesNominal Prices

Nominal prices increased sharply in 2013Source: USDC/NMFS (2019)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

USD

/lb

<15/lb 30-40 >70/lb Peeled Composite

Trends in U.S. Shrimp Import PricesReal Prices

Real prices increased sharply in 2013Source: USDC/NMFS (2019)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Jan-

90

Jan-

91

Jan-

92

Jan-

93

Jan-

94

Jan-

95

Jan-

96

Jan-

97

Jan-

98

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

2015

USD

/lb

<15/lb 30-40 >70/lb Peeled Composite

European Shrimp Imports from Extra-EU CountriesDown 9% between 2010-15; Up 6% between 2015-19

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Thou

sand

Ton

s

Others

Morocco

China

Canada

Bangladesh

Greenland

India

Vietnam

Argentina

Ecuador

The European market contracted during 2010-2015 but it has partially recovered since then, driven by imports from Ecuador, Argentina, Vietnam and India. However, the U.S. market has experienced faster growth in recent years.

Source: Eurostat (2019)* Estimate

Japanese Shrimp ImportsDown 23% between 2011-19

-

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Thou

sand

Ton

s

Others

Myanmar

Canada

Russia

Argentina

China

Indonesia

India

Thailand

Vietnam

Source: Japan Customs (2019)* Estimate

Chinese Shrimp ImportsOfficial Trade Channels

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Thou

sand

Ton

s

Other

Indonesia

Malaysia

Greenland

Canada

Argentina

Vietnam

Thailand

India

Ecuador

+114%

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution (2019); International Trade Center (2019); Chinese Customs (2019).* Estimate.

+150%

China – Exports and Imports of Frozen ShrimpOfficial Trade Channels

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Thou

sand

Tons

Exports Imports

Sources: World Integrated Trade Solution (2019); International Trade Center (2019); Chinese Customs (2019).* Estimate.

Sources: GOAL (2011, 2018, 2019).

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Size CategoriesWorld 2010 vs. World 2017 vs. World 2018

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

<15 15-20 21-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 >70

Size Category

World 2010 World 2017 World 2018

Sources: GOAL (2011, 2018, 2019).

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Size CategoriesWorld 2010 vs. World 2017 vs. World 2018

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

<15 15-20 21-25 26-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 61-70 >70

Size Category

World 2010 World 2017 World 2018

Expected Trends in Shrimp AquacultureSize Categories – GOAL Survey 2019

Size Category Asia Americas World

<15 Stable Increase Stable

15-20 Decrease Stable / Decrease Decrease

21-25 Stable Increase Stable / Increase

26-30 Stable / Increase Increase Increase

31-40 Stable / Increase Stable Stable / Increase

41-50 Stable / Decrease Decrease Stable / Decrease

51-60 Increase Decrease Increase

61-70 Increase Stable / Increase Increase

>70 Increase Increase Increase

Source: GOAL (2019).

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Product FormAggregate 2018

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

US Imports Asia Americas World

26%

55%

31%34%

19%

28%

21%

43% 25%

10%

22%

14%13%

4%

11%

7%7% 6%

10% 9% Other Forms

Breaded

Cooked

Peeled

Green / Head-off

Green / Head-on

Expected Trends in Shrimp AquacultureProduct Forms – GOAL Survey 2019

Product Form Asia Americas World

Green / Head-on Stable / Increase Increase Increase

Green / Head-off Stable / Increase Decrease Stable

Peeled Decrease Increase Stable / Decrease

Cooked Increase Stable Increase

Breaded Increase Stable Increase

Other Forms Stable / Decrease Stable Stable / Decrease

Issues and Challenges in Shrimp AquacultureGOAL 2019 Survey – All Countries

Asterisks indicate a Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Public Relations Management Conflicts with other users

Infrastructure Product quality control

Market coordination Feed quality and availability

Access to Credit Banned chemicals / antibiotic use

Production costs - Others Environmental management

Seed stock quality & availability Production costs - Fuel

***International market prices Access to disease-free broodstock

***International trade barriers ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Diseases

Not Important Moderately Important

Extremely Important

Issues and Challenges in Shrimp AquacultureGOAL 2019 Survey – Asia

Asterisks indicate a Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Public Relations Management Conflicts with other users

Infrastructure Product quality control

Access to Credit Market coordination

Feed quality and availability Production costs - Others

Production costs - Fuel Banned chemicals / antibiotic use

***International market prices Seed stock quality & availability

Environmental management ***International trade barriers

Access to disease-free broodstock ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Diseases

Not Important Moderately Important

Extremely Important

Issues and Challenges in Shrimp AquacultureGOAL 2019 Survey – Latin America

Asterisks indicate a Top 3 issue in GOAL 2007 Survey

Conflicts with other users Public Relations Management

Market coordination Banned chemicals / antibiotic use

Feed quality and availability Product quality control

Environmental management Infrastructure

Seed stock quality & availability Production costs - Others

Diseases Access to disease-free broodstock

Access to Credit ***International trade barriers

Production costs - Fuel ***Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

***International market prices

Not Important Moderately Important

Extremely Important

Top Issues and Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture – GOAL 2019 SurveyAsia vs. Latin America

Public Relations Management Conflicts with other users

Infrastructure Product quality control

Market coordination Feed quality and availability

Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Environmental management

Access to Credit Production costs - Others

Seed stock quality & availability Access to disease-free broodstock

Production costs - Fuel International trade barriers International market prices

Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Diseases

LatinAmerica

Asia

Not Important Moderately Important

Extremely Important

Top Issues and Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture – GOAL 2019 SurveyAsia vs. Latin America

Public Relations Management Conflicts with other users

Infrastructure Product quality control

Market coordination Feed quality and availability

Banned chemicals / antibiotic use Environmental management

Access to Credit Production costs - Others

Seed stock quality & availability Access to disease-free broodstock

Production costs - Fuel International trade barriers International market prices

Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal Diseases

LatinAmerica

Asia

Not Important Moderately Important

Extremely Important

Global Economic Conditions Will Be Better in 2020 Compared to 2019GOAL Survey 2019

Outlook Asia Americas Others

Strongly Agree Philippines

AgreeBangladesh,

Indonesia, Taiwan, Vietnam

Neutral / No Opinion China, ThailandEcuador, Mexico,

Nicaragua, Venezuela

Egypt, New Caledonia

Disagree India, MalaysiaBelize, Brazil,

Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Peru

Australia, Madagascar

Strongly Disagree Guatemala.

The Global Shrimp Market Will Strengthen in 2020 Compared to 2019GOAL Survey 2019

Outlook Asia Americas Others

Strongly Agree

Agree

Bangladesh, China, Indonesia,

Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam

Ecuador, Guatemala Egypt, New Caledonia

Neutral / No Opinion India, Malaysia, Thailand

Mexico, Nicaragua, Venezuela Australia

DisagreeBelize, Brazil,

Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras, Peru

Madagascar

Strongly Disagree

Feed Prices Will Be Lower in 2020 Compared to 2019GOAL Survey 2019

Outlook Asia Americas Others

Strongly Agree

Agree Brazil

Neutral / No Opinion Indonesia, Malaysia, Taiwan Ecuador, Mexico, Peru Madagascar

DisagreeBangladesh, China, India, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam

Belize, Colombia, Costa Rica, Honduras,

Nicaragua, Venezuela

Australia, Egypt, New Caledonia

Strongly Disagree Guatemala

Conclusions

Top 4 Challenges to Growth

AsiaDiseases (2018 – same)

Costs – Feed (2018 - Antibiotic Use)Access to Disease-Free Broodstock (2018 - International Prices)

Trade Barriers ( 2018- Costs-Feed)

AmericasInternational Market Prices (2018 - same)

Costs-Feed (2018 - same)Costs-Fuel (2018 - Disease)

Trade Barriers (2018 - Access to Credit)

Conclusions

Real Shrimp Prices - Lowest in over 30 years

Global Shrimp Production Expectations

2018-19 +1%

2018-2021 +3.5% per year

2021 is expected to be +11% above 2018

The Global Market should be able to absorb these modest increases without further price declines…but there are disease uncertainties, a serious trade war, and global economic expectations, especially for China, are difficult to assess

Thank You!

Appendix

Shrimp Aquaculture in Asia: 2013 - 2021

Sources: GOAL (2014-2018) for 2013-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Bangladesh Malaysia Philippines Myanmar Taiwan

Thou

sand

Tons

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Yields fluctuated in much of Asia during 2013-2017. Compared to 2013, more robust growth is expected in the Philippines.

Shrimp Aquaculture in Other Reporting Countries: 2013 - 2021

Sources: GOAL (2014-2018) for 2013-2017; GOAL (2019) for 2018-2021.Species included are L. vannamei, P. monodon and Other. M. rosenbergii is excluded.

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Saudi Arabia Iran Egypt Madagascar Australia New Caledonia

Thou

sand

Tons

2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021

Although declines were reported for 2019, both Saudi Arabia and Iran are predicted to increase production of L. vannamei. Growth is also expected in Egypt and Australia.

P. Monodon vs. L. vannameiU.S. Wholesale Prices

Source: Urner Barry (2019).

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

10

Jan-

99

Jan-

00

Jan-

01

Jan-

02

Jan-

03

Jan-

04

Jan-

05

Jan-

06

Jan-

07

Jan-

08

Jan-

09

Jan-

10

Jan-

11

Jan-

12

Jan-

13

Jan-

14

Jan-

15

Jan-

16

Jan-

17

Jan-

18

Jan-

19

USD

/lb

Farmed, C&SA White, 26-30 Farmed, Southeast Asian BT, 26-30 Premium, White - Tiger

Spanish Shrimp ImportsDown 16% between 2011-13; Up 13% between 2013-17; Down 6% between 2017-19

-

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Thou

sand

Ton

s

Others

Morocco

Senegal

Venezuela

Peru

Portugal

Nicaragua

China

Ecuador

Argentina

Source: Eurostat (2019)* Estimate

French Shrimp ImportsDown 9% between 2010-19

-

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

110

120

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019*

Thou

sand

Ton

s

Others

Nicaragua

Madagascar

Spain

Vietnam

Venezuela

Belgium

Netherlands

India

Ecuador

Source: Eurostat (2019)* Estimate

Worldwide Top Issues and Challenges in Shrimp Aquaculture2019 Survey vs. 2018 Survey

Production costs - Others

Access to Credit

Production costs - Fuel

International trade barriers

Seed stock quality & availability

Access to disease-free broodstock

Environmental management

Production costs - Feed/Fishmeal

Diseases

International market prices

2018

2019

Not Important Moderately Important

Extremely Important

Source: GOAL (2019).

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Size CategoriesAggregate 2018

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

US Imports - HLSO Asia Americas World

9%

14%

5%

20%

9% 16% 10%

15%

13%24%

15%

18%

15%

21%

16%

11%

19%

14%

18%

7%

15%

10%

14%

3%

10%6%

9%

12% 6% 11% >70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

37%22%

Disease problems in Asia led to the harvesting of smaller sizes since 2011. Survey participants expect this trend to continue in the near future.

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Size CategoriesComparison of Survey data for Asia

7%3% 4%6%

3% 4% 5%7%6% 7% 7% 5% 5%

6%

5% 6%3% 5%

9%18% 16% 14%

17%9% 9%

8%

10% 9%

7%9%

13%

29% 30% 30% 23%

15% 16%

13%15% 16%

14%14%

15%

22% 19% 20% 21%

19%25% 18%

17%21%

21%19%

19%

10% 12% 10% 15%

19%18%

15%21%

19%

18%17%

15%

6% 7%7%

7%

15% 11%14% 16%

13%

19% 15%

10%

7% 5% 8% 5%12% 12% 13% 11% 10% 15% 16% 12%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GOAL2008

GOAL2009

GOAL2010

GOAL2011

GOAL2012

GOAL2013

GOAL2014

GOAL2015

GOAL2016

GOAL2017

GOAL2018

GOAL2019

>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

27%

61%

52%

42%

37%

47%

There was also a temporary trend towards smaller sizes in Latin America in 2011 and 2012.

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Size CategoriesComparison of Survey data for the Americas

4%16%

10% 11%9% 4% 7% 6%

9%8%

15% 10% 16%

18%19% 15%

15%

8%10%

18%16%

9%

19%

13%

24%

16%20% 20%

22%

22%19%

25%25%

29%

24%

22%

21%

16% 19% 22% 23%

24% 21%

18%19%

21%

17%

18%

14%15% 13% 15%

12%

17% 18%

14%11%

13%11%

16%

10%11% 10%

10%10%

13% 10%

10% 4% 8%6%

10%6%

6% 7% 4% 8% 10% 14%6% 10% 9% 6% 8% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GOAL2008

GOAL2009

GOAL2010

GOAL2011

GOAL2012

GOAL2013

GOAL2014

GOAL2015

GOAL2016

GOAL2017

GOAL2018

GOAL2019

>70

61-70

51-60

41-50

31-40

26-30

21-25

15-20

<15

30%

60%

42%

50%

22%

59%

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Product FormComparison of Survey data for Asia

6% 9%

24%17%

33%23%

30%22% 22% 17%

27% 26%19%22%

18%22%

10%20%

18%

17% 20%24%

21% 19%35%

30%

23% 28% 18% 25%24%

24% 23%19%

24%25%

22% 20%19% 18%

15%

20% 16%

18% 15%15%

16%13%

11% 12% 8%12%

9%

8% 7%9% 10%

13%

7%7%

7% 6% 8% 3%13%

4% 6% 10% 10% 13%5%

10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GOAL2008

GOAL2009

GOAL2010

GOAL2011

GOAL2012

GOAL2013

GOAL2014

GOAL2015

GOAL2016

GOAL2017

GOAL2018

GOAL2019

OtherFormsBreaded

Cooked

Peeled

Green /Head-offGreen /Head-on

25%45%

Composition of Shrimp Aquaculture by Product FormComparison of Survey data for Latin America

40% 44% 46% 50%57% 52% 53%

63%56% 56%

63%55%

53% 46% 45% 31%

34%30% 24%

26%32% 30% 20%

28%

6%7% 7%

12%6%

14%15%

6% 7% 6%7% 10%

4%3% 3%

4%3% 4% 5% 7% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

GOAL2008

GOAL2009

GOAL2010

GOAL2011

GOAL2012

GOAL2013

GOAL2014

GOAL2015

GOAL2016

GOAL2017

GOAL2018

GOAL2019

OtherFormsBreaded

Cooked

Peeled

Green /Head-offGreen /Head-on

The growing share of the green head-on form reflects an increased presence of Latin American shrimp in European and Asian markets.