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LIETUVOS AGRARINIŲ IR MIŠKŲ MOKSLŲ CENTRAS
ALEKSANDRO STULGINSKIO UNIVERSITETAS
Julija Konstantinavičienė
Gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros Lietuvoje veiksniai
Daktaro disertacijos santrauka
Žemės ūkio mokslų sritis,
Miškotyros mokslo kryptis (04 A)
2017, Akademija
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Mokslo daktaro disertacija rengta 2012–2016 metais Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centre (LAMMC) pagal Lietuvos Respublikos švietimo ir mokslo ministro 2012 m. vasario 24 d. įsakymu Nr. V-327 suteiktą doktorantūros teisę Aleksandro Stulginskio universitetui su Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centru. Mokslinis vadovas nuo 2012 iki 2014 m. Dr. Liana Sadauskienė – Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centras, Biomedicinos mokslai, Miškotyra, 04 A. Mokslinis vadovas nuo 2014 iki 2016 m. Dr. Vidas Stakėnas – Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centras, Žemės ūkio mokslai, Miškotyra, 04 A. Disertacija ginama Aleksandro Stulginskio Universiteto ir Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centro, Žemės ūkio srities, Miškotyros mokslo krypties taryboje: Pirmininkas: Prof. dr. Kęstutis Armolaitis (Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centras, Žemės ūkio mokslai, Miškotyra, 04 A) Nariai: Prof. Dr. habil. Romualdas Juknys (Vytauto Didžiojo Universitetas, Žemės ūkio mokslai, Miškotyra, 04 A) Prof. Dr. (HP) Vlada Vitunskienė (Aleksandro Stulginskio Universitetas, Socialiniai mokslai, Ekonomika, 04 S) Dr. (HP) Eugenija Bakšienė (Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centras, Žemės ūkio mokslai, Agronomija, 01 A) Dr. Dagnija Lazdina (Latvijos miškų institutas "Silava", Žemės ūkio mokslai, Miškotyra, 04 A) Disertacija bus ginama viešame Miškotyros mokslo krypties tarybos posėdyje 2017 m. birželio 16 d., 10 val. Aleksandro Stulginskio universiteto centrinių rūmų posėdžių salėje, 217 kab. Adresas: Studentų g. 11, Akademija, Kauno r. Lietuva. Tel. 8 37 752 254 Disertacijos santrauka išsiuntinėta 2017 m. gegužės 16 d. Disertaciją galima peržiūrėti Lietuvos nacionalinėje Martyno Mažvydo, Aleksandro Stulginskio universiteto ir Lietuvos agrarinių ir miškų mokslų centro filialo Miškų instituto bibliotekose.
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INTRODUCTION
Relevance of the study Usage of renewable energy sources (RES) – is is one of the most
important strategic provisions of European energy policy (European Commission, 1997; Commission of the European Communities, 2008; European Union Directive, 2009). Usage of renewable energy sources (RES) is one of the most important strategic provisions of European energy policy (European Commission, 1997; Commission of the European Communities, 2008; European Union Directive, 2009). The energy obtained from RES accounted to 26 percent of final energy consumption in Lithuania in 2011 (REN 21, 2013). The aim of Lithuanian National Renewable energy sources development (LRV, 2010) and the National Energetic Independence Strategy (2012) is to increase the part of final energy consumption of RES by not less than 23 percent until 2020. This would significantly strengthen Lithuanian energetic independence and reduce gas emissions causing the greenhouse effect.
The biomass comprises more than 77 percent of renewable energy sources in the world (Dzenajaviciene et al., 2011). With increasing demand for bioenergy, the usage of forests is also getting more intense, therefore in order to avoid possible negative impact in the future, it is necessary to look for new solutions to meet the needs of woody biomass.
One of the alternatives for more intensive biomass use willow (Salix spp.) plantations. Willows are fast growing short rotation woody plants. Their cultivation is one of the opportunities to get a "green fuel" (Gradeckas, 2005) in a short period of time and to ensure the supply of woody biomass to the market (Ali, 2009; Hauk et al., 2014). However, it is not clear if this activity is effective in Lithuania, because the experience of growing willows for biofuel is too short-term and limited in Lithuania. Therefore, it is important to analyze, whether the activity is profitable and analyze the problems of willow growers, also to determine the factors promoting or hindering these activities in Lithuania.
Scientific problem and the level of its investigation The scientific interest in willow growing for bioenergy appeared
more than 40 years ago in Europe (Volk et al., 2004) and Canada (Guidi et al., 2013) and 30 years ago in USA (Ara et al., 2014; Volk et al., 2016). The
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first research of short rotation woody plants for energy plantations in Lithuania was conducted by M. Daujotas and A. Kirklys (Daujotas, 1954; Daujotas and Kirklys, 1978). More detail studies on willow energy plantations has been conducted for about 20 years (Labokas, 1997; Gradeckas, 1997; Lygis et al., 2006; Nedzinskienė and Bakšienė, 2008; Stackevičienė et al., 2009; Noreika, 2012; Bakšienė et al., 2012; Jakiene et al., 2013).
In order to implement the directive of European Parliament and Council directive 2009/28/EB (ES direktyva, 2009) and the Lithuanian National Renewable Energy Development Programme (LRV, 2010; 2015), focused on increased consumption of renewable energy sources, it is important to know the amounts of biomass which could be obtained from commercial willow energy plantations in local conditions.
The studies on productivity of willow energy plantations in commercial plantations were performed in other countries (Verwijst and Telenius, 1999; Telenius and Verwijst, 1995; Heinsoo et al., 2002; Nordh and Verwijst, 2004) and the models for determination of aboveground willow biomass before harvesting in terms of growth rates (stem height, diameter, density per unit area) were created. However, these data can not be used in Lithuania, because the data depend on the specific conditions for willow growing in Lithuania. The differences in climate and soil exist, and this cause difficulties to assess the economic effectiveness of this activity without knowing the outcome of harvest.
The ecological factors of willow energy plantations development were explored by many authors: Hardcastle et al. (2006), Fischer et al., (2005), Volk (2002), Volk et al. (2004), Ali (2009), Bennick et al. (2008), Evans et al. (2010), Jakienė ir kt., (2013), Abrahamson et al. (2010), Ericsson et al. (1992), Jug et al. (1999), Perttu and Kowalik (1997), Dutton and Humphreys (2005), Mitchell, 1992; Elowson (1999), Corseuil and Moreno (2001), Londo et al. (2004), Rowe et al. (2009), Doody et al. (2014), Hauk et al. (2014). Results of these studies showed that willow growing for biofuel has less negative and more positive impact on the environment.
The impact of economic factors of willow energy plantations was analysed by Rosenqvist et al. (1999), Rosenqvist and Dawson (2005), Ericsson et al. (2006), Areikin et al. (2009), Buchholz et al. (2010), Buchholz and Volk (2011), Makovskis et al. (2012), Hauk et al. (2013), Ara et al. (2014). However, the results of the mentioned studies could not be
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applied in Lithuania, first and foremost, because of the mismatch of willow productivity and, secondly, due to the differences in the work costs.
The link between the willow energy plantations development and political tools, and the subsidy value was emphasized by Rosenqvist et al. (1999), Mola-Yudego and Pelkonen (2008), Johansson et al. (2002), Ledin and Willebrand (1996), Ball et al. (2005), Scheweier and Becker (2013), Nordh (2005), Tharakan et al. (2005). The impact of social factors on the development of willow energy plantations usually was analysed in a descriptive aspect (Verwijst, 2008; Hardcastle et al., 2006; Ali, 2007, Volk et al., 2004; Jakienė ir kt., 2013).
Despite the numerous studies on the willow growing for biofuel, the factors influencing the development of willow planations in Lithuania are rarely examined. In summary, it can be stated that the question of willow energy plantations development is still relevant and important both, for scientific knowledge and for practical application. It was important to clarify the factors of willow energy plantation development in Lithuania and to determine the importance of these factors.
The object of the scientific research The analysed factors were grouped into the (1) objective factors of
willow energy plantations development (physical (aboveground biomass) and economic indicators) and (2) subjective factors (social indicators) of the development of willow energy plantations (hereinafter – willow).
The aim of the scientific research To determine and analyse the factors that influence the
development of willow energy plantations in Lithuania. The objectives of the scientific research
1. To identify the assessment peculiarities of factors of willow energy plantations development based on a systematic and comparative analysis of scientific literature.
2. To justify methodology of the factor assessment of willow energy plantations development.
3. To determine the above-ground biomass of willow energy plantations in the commercial plantations in Lithuania.
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4. To examine the economic indicators of growing willow energy plantations in Lithuania.
5. To examine the factors of willow energy plantations development in accordance with the opinion of the growers.
The methods of the research In the theoretical part, the analysis of scientific literature based on
methods of comparison, classification, systematizing and generalization, synthesis of analysis results and inferring logical conclusions was given. The empirical research methods based on field tests of temporary plots and model stem methods, correlation and regression relationship analysis, methods of discounted cash flow and decomposition analyses, as well as methods of questionnaire data and factual statistical data analyses were applied. A graphical representation method was chosen for the purpose of interpreting empirical research data, also data distribution normalization tests and the LSD test, comparative and mathematical-statistical analyses using programs of statistical data processing SPSS ir Microsoft Office Excel were used.
The scientific novelty of the research
1) When the study on willows in the commercial willow energy plantations was conducted in Lithuania, the methodology for above-ground willow biomass determination was suggested; this methodology allows predicting the production of willow biomass before the harvesting.
2) The economic analysis on willow energy plantations showed that this activity may be economically effective even without the EU subsidies.
3) The survey of willow energy plantation growers showed that the economic factors mostly hinder growing process. The influence of these factors found upon the development of willow plantations in Lithuania precondition the possibility to develop the necessary means that would alleviate the negative influence of these factors, and would benefit the willow-farmers as well as carrying out EU obligations.
The practical importance of the research The results obtained in this dissertation provide valuable
information for the farmers, land owners and other investors to make
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decisions on the willow growing. The results of the conducted economic analysis could be the basis for making political decisions on the promotion of willow growing in Lithuania.
The defended statements
1. The above-ground willow biomass could be described by willow stem diameter function.
2. The increment of above-ground willow biomass obtained in Lithuanian conditions could ensure a profitable commercial growth of willow plantations.
3. Willow growing in Lithuania is economically effective even without additional support by the subsidies.
4. Economic factors have the greatest impact on the development of willow energy plantations in Lithuania.
When the willow energy plantations development factors were
assessed, the obtained results allow to foreseen the trends for future research: 1) The research in productivity of different varieties of willow, seeking
for optimum results in Lithuanian conditions. 2) The research in productivity of later rotations of willow plantations,
seeking to assess the productivity dynamics for the whole duration of the plantation in Lithuanian conditions.
Approval of the dissertation Two scientific articles in peer-reviewed journals were published on
the dissertation topic. The work was presented in four international conferences.
The volume and structure of the dissertation The dissertation consists of introduction, literature review, research
objects and methods, results sections, the main conclusions, references and annexes. Logical scheme of dissertation is shown in Figure 1. The volume of the dissertation is 96 pages; text is illustrated by 19 tables, 27 figures and 2 annexes. The list of references has 178 sources.
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1 and 2 objectives To identify assessment peculiarities of factors of WEP development and to justify methodology of assessment of factors of WEP development.
3 objective
To prepare a non-destructive method of willow biomass determination and to determine the above-ground biomass of WEP.
Systematic and comparative analysis of
scientific literature
Field tests
Economic efficiency analysis
5 objective
To examine factors of WEP development, in accordance with the opinion of the growers.
4 objektive
To examine economic indicators of growing WEP in Lithuania.
Result
factors of WEP
develop-ment in
Lithuania
Opinion survey of WEP growers and
statistics data analysis
Figure 1. Logical scheme of dissertation (WEP – willow energy plantations)
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1. THEORETICAL ANALYSIS To summarize the theoretical aspects of development of willow
growing presented in the scientific literature and analyzed in the first part of the dissertation, the following summarysing statements could be formulated:
First, the analysis of research findings may serve as a basis for identifying the problem of the factors that influence development of willow growing for energy purposes in Lithuania. It was found that the methodology for the assessment of willow growing factors and for the analysis of the results should be based on:
the objective data, such as physical (above-ground biomass, soil, willow age, energetic value) and economic indicators (the costsof planting, growing and harvesting, cash flow, profitability);
the subjective data, such as social indicators (survey data). Secondly, the studies on willow productivity carried out abroad are
insufficient for solving the problem, as the results may not correspond to Lithuanian conditions. Therefore, a study of the productivity of commercial willow plantations for energy purpose has to be carried out in Lithuania. Once a methodology has been developed for calculating of the above-ground willow biomass, it would allow predicting the quantity of willow biomass prior to harvesting, and thus to assess the productivity factor on the basis of objective data. The results with regard to the productivity of willow growing may, in turn, be used as a basis for an economic analysis of willow growing.
Third, the results of the economic analyses of willow growing carried out abroad, which are based on the examination of the technical operations in commercial willow plantations, have revealed that the technical parameters for willow harvesting and transportation (performance standards pertaining to machine capacity and working hours) can be used in another country with the same machinery. However, it is necessary to refer to country specific prices on the labor and services market and the size of willow harvests possible to obtain under local conditions. In this dissertation, a methodology for analyzing the economic efficiency of willow growing is developed and the analysis is carried out at Lithuanian conditions, with theEcoWillow model selected as the starting point with respect to machine capacity and working hours; afterward the economic
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efficiency of willow growing is calculated and summarized with and without EU subsidies, and thus the economic factor for the development of willow growing in Lithuania on the basis of objective data is assessed.
Fourth, in order to ensure a more consist analysis of the topic, it was decided to examine the additional subjective factors that may affect the development of willow growing in Lithuania. It was decided that the best assessment of these factors could be provided by willow farmers. Therefore a survey was carried out among Lithuanian willow farmers who grow willows for fuel on the basis of the farmers' experience and regulations. The work summarizes the willow farmers' motives, incentives, problems and intentions. In addition, the objective factual statistics on the area of the willow intended for energy purposes are analyzed.
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 2.1. Estimation of the above-ground willow biomass in
energy plantations The object of research was the willow (Salix spp.) in commercial
plantations in Lithuania. The aim of the research was to determine the above-ground willow biomass grown on different soils in Lithuania. The measurements of willow dendrometrical parameters were obtained in the temporal willow plots (Verwijst and Telenius, 1999; Telenius and Verwijst, 1995; Heinsoo et al., 2002; Nordh and Verwijst, 2004; Lazdina, 2016), using model stem methods and soil characteristics.
The research was carried out in 13 willow plantations on sandy loam and sandy soils in 2013–2015. The soil characteristics were estimated in all studied plantations. Soil pH was measured with a glass electrode in the soil: water suspensions (1:2.5 W/W) in 0.01 M CaCl2 for all soil samples collected. The concentration of total N was analysed according to the Kjeldahl method (ISO 11261, 1995). The mobile potassium (K2O) and mobile phosphorus (P2O5) were determined in soil samples using the Egner-Domingo (A-L) method (Egner et al., 1960). Chemical soil analyses were performed by the Agrochemical Research Laboratory of the Lithuanian Agriculture and Forestry Research Centre. A description of the study plantations is given in Table 1.
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Table 1. Description of willow plantations and research plots
Plan-ta-
tion No.
Plantation’s districts
Date of
survey
Plants age, years
Number (units)
and area (m2) of plots
Number of
model plants, units
Number of stems
in the plots, units
Planting density, units/ha
1 Kaišiadorys 2013 03 5 1 x 20 31 178 12000
2 Kaišiadorys 2013 04 3 3 x 20 70 400 12000
3 Varėna 2013 11 5 2 x 20 63 349 12000
4 Kaišiadorys 2013 12 4 3 x 22 95 350 12000
5 Švenčionys 2014 04 5 3 x 25 35 360 12000
6 Švenčionys 2014 04 6 3 x 21 31 294 12000
7 Trakai 2015 02 4 6 x 22 12 500 12000
8 Kaunas 2015 02 5 6 x 22 12 475 12000
9 Alytus 2015 03 3 3 x 31 12 442 18000
10 Alytus 2015 03 4 3 x 31 12 226 18000
11 Alytus 2015 03 1 1 x 31 10 45 18000
12 Kaunas 2015 03 6 3 x 31 12 336 14000
13 Kaunas 2015 03 2 6 x 22 12 506 12000
Total 1030 407 4464
The number of stems was determined at all the plots, and all stem diameters were measured in at 55 cm above the ground (Verwijst and Telenius, 1999; Telenius and Verwijst, 1995; Heinsoo et al., 2002; Nordh and Verwijst, 2004). The model stems were sampled during the non-vegetation season. For each model stem the height, diameter and mass were measured. The absolutely dry sample mass was determined in a laboratory. The samples were dried at 105 °C temperature until a constant weight and weighted.
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The regression analysis method was used to determine the dependency between dry above-ground biomass and stem diameter and height.
In order to determine the proportion of bark and stems without bark, the bark from the model stems was separated from the stem wood while the samples were still fresh. This resulted in a total of 49 stem wood samples and 49 stem bark samples, representing more than 10 percent of all samples. All samples were dried at 105°C until constant weight and weighted.
To provide basic information about the calorific value (EN 14918:2009) and ash content (EN 14775:2009) of local willow plants, a combined sample per willow plant was taken and analysed.
2.2. Estimation of the economic efficiency of growing willow energy plantations
The study object was the cash flows of willow energy plantations growing activity. The aim of study was to assess economic efficiency of growing willow energy plantations. The following methods were used: cash flow analysis; discounted cash flows method; net present value (NPV) method and scenario modeling method.
To achieve the objective, operating expenses and revenues were calculated and cash flow analysis was performed. Workflow diagram of economic analysis is given in Figure 2.
Costs
Revenue
Results of economic analysis
Discount
rate
Decomposition analysis
Analysis of scenarios
Figure 2. Workflow diagram of economic analysis
Cash flow calculations were based on an economic model
Ecowillow (SUNY – ESF, 2008), which allows to change the variables and calculate cash flows and profit over the entire production chain, from preparation of growing energy plantations until biofuel delivery to the ultimate consumer (Buchholz et al., 2010). Calculations were performed for conditional 10-hectare plantation. Revenue calculation was based on the lowest annual dry above-ground biomass yield per 1 ha after the first cutting, the average annual dry above-ground biomass yield per 1 ha at the
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time of the next cutting (based on the results of the task 2) and the average purchase price of biofuel (by market prices of 2014–2015 years). It was accepted (SUNY – ESF, 2008; Makovskis et al., 2012) that the harvest takes place every fourth year.
Assessing future cash flows, the macro-economic analysis and statistical data were used as external sources of information, and it was also referred on reasonable assumptions.
Discounted cash flow method splits the value of money taking into account the time factor. The net present value of willow growing the rate of 6 percent discount is applied for calculations in USA (SUNY – ESF, 2008), Sweden, Poland (Ericsson et al., 2006), Latvia (Makovskis et al., 2012). In this dissertation the basic calculations were based on six percent discount rate. Based on the results the revenue-costs schemes of willow energy plantations were modeled, where the data of 1 ha of work prime cost and revenue (with and without subsidies) over the 22 willow plantations lifespan was presented.
Decomposition analysis method. The method of decomposition analysis is used to measure inequalities of revenue according to revenue sources (Litchfield, 1999) and is often applied for the assessment of the influence of agricultural subsidies upon revenue inequality (Vitunskienė ir Baltušienė, 2014). This method is used to evaluate the impact of EU subsidies on the profitability of willow growing.
The scenarios method. In most cases, this method is applicable creating long-term investment risk models. Project cash flows were calculated before being recounted with different meanings changing parameter values. Applying scenarios method, three investment project scenarios were concluded: basic (calculated on the baseline data); pessimistic (predicted that revenue declines by 10 percent and the expenditure increases by 10 percent); optimistic (predicted that revenue increases by 10 percent and the expenditure declines by 10 percent). Possible development scenarios were compared with each other.
2.3. The assessment of factors of willow energy plantations
development in accordance with the opinion of the growers The object of the study was the factors of willow (Salix spp.)
energy plantations development in Lithuania. The aim of the study was to clarify the opinion of willow growers about stimulating and hindering
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factors in their activities, to collect the data about resources of willow energy plantations in Lithuania. A quantitative research method (survey) was used (Tidikis, 2003; Kardelis, 2007; Kothari, 2004; Bitinas ir kt., 2008. Bhattacherjee, 2012) and data were statistically analysed.
While preparing the questionnaire, questions were formed to reflect the current situation of growing willow energy plantations in Lithuania. The questionnaire helped to gather the following information: 1) basic information of energy plantations (plot area, year of
establishment, etc.); 2) reasons that fostered to start growing willow plantations; 3) how the actitivity was organized and what were the results of
activity; 4) what are the hindering and stimulating factors of the activity; 5) follow-up plans of willow energy growers; 6) sociodemographic data of willow energy plantation growers.
For this survey, the method of e-mail questionnaire was conducted. It was found that there were 70 willow energy plantation growers in 2014 in Lithuania. Fifty willow growers were surveyed during the study. This was enough to ensure 90 percent reliability of the study. Plantation owners were surveyed by the largest plantation sizes. Total floor area of surveyed willow plantation owners accounted for 78 percent of the total area of WEP growers in 2014. Describing the sociodemographic characteristics of the respondents it was found that the target segment of willow energy plantation growers in Lithuania are educated men aged from 25 to 60 years, by the area of activity mostly they are farmers and businessmen.
3. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION 3.1. The above-ground biomass of willow energy plantations Before determining the dry mass of each model stem sample in the
laboratory, the total dry mass of the stem and above-ground biomass in each plot were calculated.
Comparing the dependencies between the dry above-ground biomass of the model stems in different willow plantations and their diameter and height, statistically significant differences were not found (P < 0.05, Fisher’s LSD test (Field, 2009)). This suggested that the different plantations revealed a general regularity, regardless of the soil and the main
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plantation tree stem inequalities. Therefore, it was decided to use the data of the dry above-ground biomass and diameter of the model trees of all plantations for making the general equation (Fig. 3).
This equation was used to calculate the dry above-ground willow biomass using a non-destructive method for all plots, where the willow stem diameters were measured at 55 cm above the ground. Based on this data, the above-ground dry willow biomass in each studied plantation was estimated per 1 ha. This study showed that from 2 to 10 t/ha of above-ground biomass could be obtained annually in Lithuania. This amount could vary because of plantation age, soil and fertilizer features, planting density or the cumulative impact of these factors.
y = 0.0003x2.4311
R² = 0.95(P < 0.001)
0,00
2,00
4,00
6,00
8,00
10,00
12,00
14,00
16,00
18,00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
M (s), kg
D (55), mm
Figure 3. Dependence between dry above-ground biomass of the model
stems of all plantations (M (s) kg) and stem diameter (D (55) mm)
Soil acidity was optimal in all studied plantations: soil pH CaCl2 parameters ranged between 5.2 and 7.2 0–40 cm in the soil layer: from slightly acidic (pH 5.2 to 6) to neutral (pH > 6). The soils in the studied plantations comprised average concentrations of nutrients (N, P, K, Ca and Mg).
The mean willow height was 4 meters, except the 3rd plantation with an average stem height of 2 meters; this planatation was grown on nutrient poor soil. The largest height of willow stems was 8.4 meters. The largest stem diameter at 55 cm height was 87 mm, while the mean diameter was only 18 mm (except in the 3rd plantation, where the average stem diameter was only 11 mm).
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The mean relative willow moisture was 47.5 ± 0.42 percent. Moisture downward trend was found with increasing stem diameter and age. The same trend was recorded for the underbrush tree species used for biofuel (Škėma, 2011).
When willow calorific value (EN 14918: 2009) and ash content (EN 14775: 2009) were measured, it was estimated that 1 ha of willow energy plantations could provide about 29 MWh ha-1 of heat and thus save about 2.5 tons of oil energy equivalent per year.
According to the statistical data of the stem thickness distribution in categories (asymmetry and excess indicators), indicating intensified reciprocal competition, it is recommended do not exceed 5–6 years for willows first chopping, but the harvest should be done later than after 3–4 years. The calorific value should be also assessed. It was noticed that willow growing on infertile sandy soils without intensive fertilization is not appropriate due to the low biomass increment.
3.2. The economic efficiency of growing willow energy
plantations Operating costs of growing willow energy plantations including
planting material, technique (rent of other technique and equipment, transportation, maintenance, fuel consumption and price) and the workforce (number of employees, number of working hours, hourly rate, indirect labor costs) covered six main cost units, consisting of: 1) preparation costs: land preparation before planting (plowing,
discing and paring), weed annihilation using herbicides; 2) planting costs: planting material and planting work; 3) maintenance costs: weed control procedures (during first and
second year), the primary cutting (after the first year) and fertilization;
4) harvesting costs; 5) transportation costs; 6) other costs (administrative costs and land taxes).
Land lease costs were not included in the calculations because only 2 percent of the owners lease their land to grow willow energy plantations in Lithuania (on the basis of the results of Objective 5).
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Lithuania still does not have the local harvesting technique. In 2013, JSC „Renergija” acquired willow harvester, although it has not been used so far due to the technical difficulties. WEP owners rent harvesting technique from neighboring countries. According to the methodology of labor and technical productivity according to the economic model Ecowillow (SUNY–ESF, 2008), the prime costs of planting, harvesting and transportation per hectare have been calculated (Table 2).
Table 2. Planting, harvesting and transportation costs
Data Measurement unit Value Seedlings price (planting density – 13000 plants/ha)
Eur/ha 514.80
Planting costs Eur/ha 634.68 Harvesting costs Eur/ha 240.39
Eur/t dry mass 10.02 Transportation costs
Eur/ha 193.75 Eur/t dry mass 8.77 Eur/km 2.57
Preparation (189 EUR/ha) and maintenance cost (441 EUR/ha)
calculations were based on the recommended preparation and maintenance work sequence (Lazdina, 2016) and mechanized agricultural services prices of 2015 in Lithuania.
It was found that the preparation for planting willows comprises 6 percent of the total costs, the planting comprises 19 percent. (Fig. 4). Most of the costs consist of harvesting and transportation, and it makes 56 percent. (Fig. 4).
Establishment25%
Maintenance13%
Harvesting31%
Transportation25%
Other6%
Figure 4. Structure of WEP growing costs
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Based on the results, cash flow diagram of willow energy plantations was modeled over the entire 22-year life cycle, which provided the data on the prime cost of 1 ha work and revenue. Separate analysis of the cash flows with EU subsidies and without them was conducted.
The results showed that applying 6 percent of discount rate in the absence of EU aid, willows growing activity NPV is 458 EUR; internal rate of return (IRR) is 5 percent. Meanwhile, with the EU aid, the project‘s NPV is 1800 EUR on the 22nd year, IRR is 16 percent. In both cases, the project is effective because the NPV > 0. In case of realistic scenario the investment payback time (based on the current macro-economic indicators), in the absence of EU aid, comes only on the 17th year, but using the current EU aid, this project would pay off on the 9th year (after the second harvest) with the condition that all the harvest would be sold.
According to the Polish methodology (Ericsson et al., 2006), it was calculated what costs incur after each harvest, excluding establishment costs, as those costs incurred regardless of whether the farmer continues to grow willows or not. The results showed that the revenue of willow growers (excluding subsidies) more than two times exceeded the costs after each harvest (excluding establishment costs). Therefore, the grower may decide, whether he wishes to continue willow growing or not after each harvest. Furthermore, the growing of willow energy plantations has several advantages. If during the time of harvest it turns out that there is no buyer or biomass purchase price is too low, it is possible to delay the harvest for the next year (Lazdina, 2016), extending the period of the plantation rotation which would be impossible when cultivating agricultural crops.
Economic benefit of willow growing depends mostly on the harvest size and the purchase price of the biofuel. But the price of biofuel has a greater impact on the economic efficiency of willow growing than the willow harvest, because when the price rises, only revenue increases, meanwhile when the yield increases, harvesting and transportation costs increase as well.
3.3. The survey of willow energy plantation growers In Lithuania, willows are usually planted for energy purposes on
nutrient poor soils. The plot area of willow energy plantations in relation to the total area of Lithuania is similar to that in other countries.
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It was estimated that the average size of large plantations was 239 ha, the size of average plot plantations was 16 ha, and for the small plantations it was 4 ha in Lithuania. According to this classification, 64 percent of respondents have small WEP, and it represents only six percent of the total plantation area (Table 3). Meanwhile, the 12 percent of respondents have large WEP and it comprise 79 percent of the total WEP area (Table 3).
Table 3. WEP classification according to the size and distribution of the
respondent plantations under this classification WEP classification
according to the size of the plantation
Size of the plantation,
ha
Respondents % from all surveyed
respondents
Respective area % of plantation area of the
total number of respondents
Small WEP < 10 64 6 Average WEP 10 – 30 24 15 Large WEP > 30 12 79
The survey findings showed that the majority of respondents
grow the 2–4-year-old willow plantations in their own land on loam and sandy loam soil without fertilizers.
It was found that only 34 percent of respondents partially or fully collected biofuel in 2013 and 2014. The respondents, who took at least a portion of biofuel, used it mostly for their own use and for sale. However, it is impossible to say exactly from which kind of WEP area the biofuel was collected, because majority of respondents indicated that they harvested biofuel only partially. It is also difficult to assess the exact amounts of the biomass that was stored, sold or used for their own needs.
The most part of the respondents noticed that they have not yet collected biofuel with the mentioned reason that "the harvesting time has not come yet“. There were also highlighted the problems that owners had to face. One of them was that the technical vehicles can not enter plantations due to the weather conditions and this cause that the growers are unable to harvest on time. Also, the low purchase price and not worth to sell the collected biofuel, the growers choose better to store it for a while or do not harvest it at all.
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A considerable part of the questions were directed to identifying factors that hinder the activities. While analysing the reasons of relatively slow development of energy plantations in Lithuania, it was found that the business development is mostly hindered by low biofuel purchase price and the competition between major energy-producing companies and also by deficiency of harvesting technique and high cost of collecting biofuel (Fig. 5).
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18 2
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
„Investment-income“ period duration
Indexes of profitableness of activities
Plantation establishment costs
Plantation maintenance costs
Harvesting costs
Biofuel transportation costs
Deficiency of establishment and maintenancetechnique
Deficiency of harvesting technique
Monopoly of biofuel cutting service providers
Deficiency of sapling plantations cultivation inLithuania
Low productivity of energy plantations
Difficult maintenance of plantations
Low (inedequate) demand of biofuel in Lithuania
Low purchase price of biofuel
Competition between large energy-producingenterprises
Definitely does not interfere Does not interfere Neither yes nor no
Does interfere Highly interfere Unspecified
Figure 5. Influence of economic factors on WEP development in Lithuania
on the basis of the respondents opinion
21
The respondents indicated new opportunities to develop new business and generate additional revenue as well as the EU aid as the main incentive reasons, although a number of plantation owners indicated that willow growing is an opportunity to grow biofuel for their own needs. Comparing it with agriculture, willow growing activity requires less work and maintenance, in addition to the majority of growers had some unused land.
The majority of respondents supposed that the development of willow energy plantations in Lithuania is a positive phenomenon in social, ecological and economic sense. Most of the respondents plan to continue growing already cultivated willow plantations, but for now they are not planning to expand those areas, because there is no guarantee for financial gain in the future.
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CONCLUSIONS 1. The results of willow willow energy plantations development study
were analysed and the following main factors were identified: First, insofar as the ecological factors are concerned, the impact of willow
energy plantations development on the environment was found to be more positive than negative in comparison with most traditional agricultural crops. However, the general agricultural policy of the EU during the recent years has been aimed at restricting the usage of agricultural land for purposes other than growing food crops and supplying them to the market in order to ensure the proper supply of food to European citizens;
Secondly, the economic factors affecting development of willow energy plantations are influenced by the political factors, as well as the lengthy payback period for investments, and depend on willow yields.
2. The productivity of willow plantations growing in Lithuania was estimated and it was found that:
First, the strong mass dependence of willow stems on their diameter (R² = 0.95) was estimated. Non-destructive willow above-ground biomass estimation method was applied on the basis of this dependence. It was found that the above-ground biomass of the same willow species grown in energy plantations could be described by willow stem diameter function ( 4311.20003.0 DM s ×= ) without reference to soil fertility.
Second, willow annual increment varied in a wide range (from 2 to 3 tons dry mass per hectare in sandy soils, from 5 to 9 tons – in unfertilized loam soils, and from 7 to 10 tons – in loam soils fertilized by utility sludge) and it depends on the rotation willow cultivation, age of the plants, soil parameters and fertilization. Willow growing on infertile sandy soils is not appropriate due to the low biomass production. Therefore, the common opinion that it is possible to produce high yield of willow energy plantations on infertile soils without integral maintenance of the plantations is unreasonable.
Thirdly, it was found that the net calorific value of willow biofuels is 2.4
MWh, which could be produced from 1 ton of fresh willows, and the use willow biomass from 1 hectare for energy purposes can save about 2.5 tons of oil equivalent of energy annually.
23
3. The economic efficiency of willow growing was determined and the
following statements could be summarysed: First, the willow biofuel production costs over 22 years (five growing
rotations) in Lithuania is 3317 Eur/ha. The establishment costs account for 25 percent of total costs, maintenance costs are 13 percent, harvesting costs are 31 percent, transportation costs – 25 percent and other costs form 6 percent in the overall cost structure. The lack of privately owned machinery increases harvesting costs. But this activity does not require maintenance every year, and therefore the farmer can simultaneously manage other holdings. In addition, the farmer has the opportunity to delay the harvest while prolonging rotation period of the plantation; as well he could decide to continue or stop the willow growing when the investment and revenue has been evaluated after each harvest.
Second, it was estimated that under the current macro-economic indicators and the use of the current EU aid, the investments in willow cultivation could pay off on the 9th year, internal rate of return would be 16 percent and the net present value of 22 years would amount to 1800 Eur/ha. The calculated rate of nominal direct support indicated that the received subsidies by almost four times increased the economic self-generated revenue. It was established that the cultivation of willows may be economically effective even without the additional subsidies.
Thirdly, the results of this study provided the basis for making political decisions on the promotion of willow growing in Lithuania and also it provided practical information for the farmers. However, each investor should make a personal decision on the willow growing activities, depending on his/her personal financial expectations. It should be realised that a payback period of this activity is relatively long and the revenue is not derived every year, therefore the project could be economically attractive not for every farmer, especially if the growing of small willow plantations is planned. Also, the threat of subsidies cancellation can reduce positive cash flows.
4. The following final conclusions were made after the survey of willow farmers:
First, it was revealed that this activity is mostly hindered by economic factors: the low purchase price of biofuel, high cost of collecting
24
biofuel, the lack of harvesting techniques and the competition of major energy-producing companies. This opinion was also confirmed by the results obtained from the economic study.
Second, willow growing in Lithuania is least hindered by the social and ecological factors. However, it was estimated that an appropriate maintenance of willow plantations is not always ensured because of social factors (lacking of knowledge or insufficient approach to willow plantation growing), which could reduce the yield of willow plantations. In addition, the harvesting machines are frequently unable to enter the willow plantations due to the weather conditions.
Thirdly, due to the commitment to the European Union (EU subsidies), the political factors are currently promoting willow growing in Lithuania. It is stated, that EU support is the most stimulating factor in the development of willows energy plantations at present in Lithuania. However, in general case, the study results show that it does not guarantee the successful harvesting and market access of the final production. Therefore, it would be appropriate to change the order of EU support allocation: aid or its part should be linked to the marketed production.
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LIST OF AUTHOR’S PUBLICATIONS
Mokslinės publikacijos recenzuojamuose tęstiniuose ar neperiodiniuose leidiniuose, referuotose įvairiose duomenų bazėse, įskaitant ir elektroninį formatą:
Konstantinavičienė J., Škėma M., Stakėnas V., Šilinskas B. 2014. Gluosnių (Salix viminalis L.) energetinių plantacijų antžeminės biomasės produktyvumas. Miškininkystė 2 (76): 29–37.
Konstantinavičienė J., Stakėnas V. 2015. Gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtrą Lietuvoje lemiantys veiksniai: plantacijų augintojų apklausos rezultatai. Miškininkystė 1 (77): 20–32.
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ĮVADAS Temos aktualumas Atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių (AEI) naudojimas – viena
svarbiausių Europos energetikos politikos strateginių nuostatų (European Commission, 1997; Commission of the European Communities, 2008; European Union Directive, 2009). 2015 metais iš AEI gauta energija sudarė beveik 26 procentus galutinio energijos suvartojimo Lietuvoje (LREM, 2016). Lietuvos Nacionalinės atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių plėtros (LRV, 2010; 2015) ir Nacionalinės energetinės nepriklausomybės strategijos (2012) tikslas yra padidinti galutinio energijos suvartojimo AEI dalį iki 2020 metų ne mažiau kaip iki 23 procentų ir taip reikšmingai sustiprinti Lietuvos energetinę nepriklausomybę bei sumažinti šiltnamio efektą sukeliančių dujų emisijas.
Daugiau nei 77 proc. atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių pasaulyje sudaro biomasė (Dzenajavičienė ir kt., 2011). Didėjant bioenergijos poreikiui, intensyvėja ir miškų naudojimas, todėl siekiant išvengti galimos ekologinės neigiamos įtakos ateities kartoms, būtina ieškoti naujų sprendimų medienos biomasės poreikiams tenkinti.
Viena iš alternatyvių biomasės formų yra gluosniai (Salix spp.). Tai sparčiai augantys trumpos apyvartos sumedėję augalai. Jų auginimas yra viena iš galimybių gauti „žaliąjį kurą” (Gradeckas, 2005) per trumpą laiką ir užtikrinti sumedėjusios biomasės tiekimą į rinką (Ali, 2009; Hauk et al., 2014). Visgi, iki šiol nėra aišku, kiek ši veikla yra efektyvi Lietuvoje, nes gluosnių plantacijų auginimas energetiniais tikslais šalyje yra santykinai naujas reiškinys ir patirtis nėra didelė. Didėjant biokuro poreikiui rinkoje, aktualu išanalizuoti, ar ši veikla yra ekonomiškai tikslinga, su kokiomis problemomis susiduria gluosnių augintojai ir nustatyti šią veiklą skatinančius ar ribojančius veiksnius Lietuvoje.
Mokslinė problema ir jos ištyrimo lygis Mokslinis susidomėjimas gluosnių auginimu bioenergijai Europoje
(Volk et al., 2004) ir Kanadoje (Guidi et al., 2013) atsirado daugiau nei prieš 40 metų, o Amerikoje – prieš 30 metų (Ara et al., 2014; Volk et al., 2016). Pirmus trumpos apyvartos sumedėjusių augalų plantacijų mokslinius tyrimus Lietuvoje atliko M. Daujotas ir A. Kirklys (Daujotas, 1954; Daujotas ir Kirklys, 1978). Tačiau gilesni gluosnių energetinių plantacijų moksliniai tyrimai vyksta tik apie 20 metų. Šie tyrimai aprėpia dirvožemio
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derlingumo ypatumus auginant gluosnius, nuotekų dumblo panaudojimą gluosnių tręšimui (Labokas, 1997; Gradeckas, 1997, 1998, 2001), dirvožemio įtaką gluosnių įsišaknijimui (Stackevičienė ir kt., 2009), gluosnių įveisimo ir auginimo technologijas (Lygis ir kt., 2006; Noreika, 2012, Jakienė ir kt., 2013), gluosnių produktyvumo ir gluosnių įvairių veislių auginimo kurui galimybes (Smaliukas, 1990, 1996; Smaliukas ir Banienė, 1998, Smaliukas ir kt., 2001; Nedzinskienė ir Bakšienė, 2008; Bakšienė ir kt., 2012).
Siekiant tinkamai įgyvendinti Europos Parlamento ir Tarybos direktyvą 2009/28/EB (ES direktyva, 2009) ir Lietuvos Nacionalinės atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių plėtros programą (LRV, 2010; 2015), orientuotą į atsinaujinančių energijos išteklių vartojimo didinimą, svarbu žinoti, kokius biomasės kiekius galima gauti iš komercinių gluosnių energetinių plantacijų.
Užsienyje atliktų gluosnių produktyvumo tyrimų duomenys, taip pat jų pagrindu sudaryti modeliai nustatyti gluosnių antžeminę biomasę prieš kirtimą pagal augimo rodiklius (Verwijst and Telenius, 1999; Telenius and Verwijst, 1995; Heinsoo et al., 2002; Nordh and Verwijst, 2004) negali būti panaudoti Lietuvoje, nes nebūtinai atitiks gluosnių auginimo sąlygas Lietuvoje dėl klimato ir dirvožemio skirtumų, o nežinant, koks derlius gali būti gaunamas, sudėtinga įvertinti šios veiklos ekonominį efektyvumą.
Gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros ekologinius veiksnius tyrė Hardcastle et al. (2006), Fischer et al., (2005), Volk (2002), Volk et al. (2004), Ali (2009), Bennick et al. (2008), Evans et al. (2010), Jakienė ir kt., (2013), Abrahamson et al. (2010), Ericsson et al. (1992), Jug et al. (1999), Perttu and Kowalik (1997), Dutton and Humphreys (2005), Mitchell, 1992; Elowson (1999), Corseuil and Moreno (2001), Londo et al. (2004), Rowe et al. (2009), Doody et al. (2014), Hauk et al. (2014). Šių tyrimų rezultatai parodė, kad gluosnių auginimas biokurui turi mažiau neigiamą ir daugiau teigiamą poveikį aplinkai.
Ekonominių rodiklių poveikį gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtrai užsienyje analizavo Rosenqvist et al. (1999), Rosenqvist and Dawson (2005), Ericsson et al. (2006), Areikin et al. (2009), Buchholz et al. (2010), Buchholz and Volk (2011), Makovskis et al. (2012), Hauk et al. (2013), Ara et al. (2014), tačiau užsienyje atlikti gluosnių auginimo ekonominio efektyvumo tyrimų rezultatai negali būti pritaikyti Lietuvoje, pirma, dėl gluosnių produktyvumo neatitikimo, antra, dėl darbo sąnaudų skirtumų.
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Sąsajas tarp gluosnių plantacijų plėtros ir politinių įrankių bei subsidijų reikšmę akcentavo Rosenqvist et al. (1999), Mola-Yudego and Pelkonen (2008), Johansson et al. (2002), Ledin and Willebrand (1996), Ball et al. (2005), Scheweier and Becker (2013), Nordh (2005), Tharakan et al. (2005). Socialinių veiksnių įtaka gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtrai dažniausiai moksliniuose darbuose nagrinėjama aprašomaisiais aspektai (Verwijst, 2008; Hardcastle et al., 2006; Ali, 2007, Volk et al., 2004; Jakienė ir kt., 2013).
Nepaisant tyrimų įvairovės apie gluosnių auginimą energetiniams tikslams, veiksniai, kurie daro įtaką gluosnių plantacijų plėtrai Lietuvoje, yra mažai nagrinėti. Apibendrinant galima teigti, kad gluosnių plantacijų plėtros problema yra aktuali tiek mokslinio naujumo ir ištyrimo, tiek praktinio pritaikymo požiūriais. Svarbu išaiškinti, kokie yra gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros veiksniai Lietuvoje ir nustatyti šių veiksnių svarbą.
Tyrimo objektas Gluosnių (Salix spp.) energetinių plantacijų (toliau – gluosnių)
plėtros objektyvūs (gluosnių auginimo fiziniai (antžeminė biomasė) ir ekonominiai rodikliai) ir subjektyvūs veiksniai (socialiniai rodikliai).
Tyrimo tikslas Nustatyti ir išanalizuoti veiksnius, darančius įtaką gluosnių
energetinių plantacijų plėtrai Lietuvoje. Tyrimo uždaviniai
1. Identifikuoti gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros veiksnių vertinimo ypatumus, remiantis sistemine ir lyginamąja mokslinės literatūros analize.
2. Pagrįsti gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros veiksnių vertinimo metodiką.
3. Nustatyti gluosnių biomasę komerciniuose objektuose Lietuvoje. 4. Ištirti gluosnių energetinių plantacijų auginimo ekonominius
rodiklius Lietuvoje. 5. Ištirti gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros veiksnius, remiantis
augintojų nuomone.
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Tyrimo metodai Teorinė dalis remiasi mokslinės literatūros analize, kuri grindžiama
lyginamuoju, klasifikavimo, sisteminimo ir apibendrinimo metodais, analizės rezultatų sinteze bei loginiu išvadų generavimu. Empirinio tyrimo metodika parengta naudojantis lauko laikinųjų tyrimų barelių bei modelinių stiebų metodais, koreliacinio ir regresinio ryšio analizės, diskontuotų pinigų srautų analizės bei dekompozicijos analizės metodais, taip pat – anketinės apklausos ir faktinių statistinių duomenų analizės metodais. Empirinio tyrimo duomenims interpretuoti naudotas grafinio vaizdavimo metodas, duomenų paskirstymo normalumo testai bei LSD testas, lyginamoji ir matematinė-statistinė analizė, naudojant statistines duomenų apdorojimo programas: SPSS ir Microsoft Office Excel.
Darbo mokslinis naujumas
1) Gluosnių biomasės nustatymo tyrimas pasižymi tuo, jog buvo atliktas komercinėse, o ne eksperimentinėse plantacijose. Tik tokiu būdu ištiriamas užaugintų ne dirbtinėmis sąlygomis gluosnių produktyvumas. Pasiūlyta gluosnių energetinių plantacijų antžeminės biomasės nustatymo metodika, kuria leidžiama prognozuoti gluosnių biomasės produkciją prieš kirtimą Lietuvoje.
2) Atliktas gluosnių energetinių plantacijų auginimo Lietuvoje ekonominis vertinimas, nustatant veiklos ekonominį efektyvumą naudojant dabartines ES subsidijas ir be ES paramos.
3) Atlikta gluosnių energetinių plantacijų augintojų apklausa Lietuvoje leido išaiškinti, su kokiomis problemomis jie susiduria vykdant šią santykinai naują Lietuvoje veiklą, ir parodė, kokie veiksniai gluosnių augintojams trukdo daugiausia. Nustatyta veiksnių įtaka gluosnių plantacijų plėtrai Lietuvoje pagrindžia galimybę numatyti priemones, padėsiančias sušvelninti jų neigiamą įtaką didinant naudą augintojams bei vykdant ES įsipareigojimus.
Darbo rezultatų praktinė reikšmė Šiame darbe atlikti tyrimai svarbūs, nes gauti rezultatai suteikia
vertingos praktinės informacijos ūkininkams, žemių savininkams ir kitiems investuotojams, siekiant priimti sprendimus dėl gluosnių energetinių plantacijų auginimo. Atliktos ekonominės analizės rezultatai galėtų būti
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pagrindas priimant politinius sprendimus dėl gluosnių energetinių plantacijų auginimo plėtros Lietuvoje ir kuriant strategijas, sudarant ilgalaikius planus.
Ginamieji teiginiai
1. Gluosnių energetinių plantacijų antžeminė biomasė aprašomas per gluosnių stiebų diametro funkcija.
2. Gluosnių antžeminės biomasės prieaugis, gaunamas Lietuvos sąlygomis, yra pakankamas pelningai gluosnių auginimo veiklai užtikrinti.
3. Gluosnių auginimas Lietuvoje yra ekonomiškai perspektyvus ir tuo atveju, kai nėra remiamas subsidijomis.
4. Ekonominiai veiksniai turi didžiausią įtaką gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtrai Lietuvoje.
Apibendrinus gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros veiksnių
vertinimo rezultatus, galima numatyti tolesnes tyrimų plėtojimo kryptis: 1) skirtingų gluosnių veislių produktyvumo tyrimai, siekiant geriausio
rezultato Lietuvos sąlygomis; 2) vėlesnių gluosnių auginimo rotacijų (antras derliaus nuėmimas, trečias
derliaus nuėmimas ir t. t.) produktyvumo tyrimai, siekiant nustatyti produktyvumo dinamiką per visą plantacijos gyvavimo laikotarpį Lietuvos sąlygomis.
Darbo aprobavimas Disertacijos tema paskelbti 2 moksliniai straipsniai
recenzuojamuose ir referuojamuose tarptautiniuose duomenų bazėse leidiniuose. Darbas pristatytas 4-iose tarptautinėse konferencijose.
Mokslinio darbo apimtis ir struktūra Disertaciją sudaro įvadas, trys pagrindinės dalys ir išvados.
Disertacinio darbo loginė schema pateikta 1 paveiksle. Disertacijos apimtis yra 96 puslapiai. Tekstą iliustruoja 19 lentelių, 27 paveikslai ir 2 priedai. Literatūros sąrašą sudaro 178 šaltiniai.
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1 ir 2 uždaviniai
Identifikuoti GEP plėtros problematiką ir parengti gluosnių plėtros veiksnių vertinimo metodiką.
3 uždavinys
Parengti nedestruktyvų GEP antžeminės biomasės nustatymo Lietuvoje metodą ir nustatyti gluosnių antžeminę biomasę komerciniuose objektuose.
Sisteminė ir lyginamoji mokslinės
literatūros analizė
Lauko tyrimai:
biomasės prieaugio tyrimai
Ekonominio efektyvumo
analizė
5 uždavinys
Ištirti GEP plėtros Lietuvoje veiksnius, remiantis augintojų nuomone.
4 uždavinys
Ištirti GEP auginimo ekonominius rodiklius Lietuvoje.
Rezultatas
GEP plėtros
Lietuvoje veiksniai
GEP augintojų nuomonės tyrimas: apklausa ir faktinių duomenų analizė
1 pav. Mokslinio darbo loginė schema
(GEP – gluosnių energetinės plantacijos)
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IŠVADOS 1. Išnagrinėjus gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros tyrimų rezultatus,
identifikuoti pagrindiniai šios plėtros veiksniai. Pirma, gluosnių energetinių plantacijų plėtros ekologiniu požiūriu veiksniai
turi mažiau neigiamą ir daugiau teigiamą poveikį aplinkai, nei dauguma tradicinių žemės ūkio augalų, tačiau pastaruoju metu ES bendra žemės ūkio politika (BŽŪP), orientuota į užtikrinimą Europos piliečius aprūpinti maistu, siekia apriboti žemių naudojimą, skirtą ne maisto produktų auginimui ir tiekimui į rinką.
Antra, gluosnių plėtros ekonominiai veiksniai lemti didelės politinių veiksnių (subsidijų skirstymas) įtakos, taip pat santykinai ilgo investicijų atsipirkimo laikotarpio ir priklauso nuo gluosnių produktyvumo bei biokuro supirkimo kainos.
2. Nustatytas gluosnių auginimo produktyvumas Lietuvoje: Pirma, nustatyta didelė gluosnių stiebų antžeminės masės priklausomybė nuo
jų skersmens (R² = 0,95). Šio pagrindu, taip pat remiantis tuo, kad šios priklausomybės naudojimas lemia mažesnes darbo sąnaudas, parengtas nedestruktyvus gluosnių antžeminės biomasės nustatymo metodas, kuris gali būti taikomas praktikoje. Nustatyta, kad tos pačios veislės gluosnių energetinių plantacijų antžeminė biomasė, nepriklausomai nuo dirvožemio derlingumo sąlygų, aprašoma naudojantis gluosnių stiebų diametro funkcija: 4311,20003,0 DM s ×= .
Antra, gluosnių prieaugis svyruoja gana stipriai (nuo 2 iki 3 tonų sausos masės iš 1 hektaro smėlio dirvožemiuose, nuo 5 iki 9 tonų – netręštuose priemolio dirvožemiuose ir nuo 7 iki 10 tonų – komunaliniu dumbliu tręštuose priemolio dirvožemiuose) ir priklauso nuo augalų amžiaus, dirvožemio, tręšimo, gluosnių auginimo rotacijos. Gluosnių auginimas nederlinguose smėlio dirvožemiuose yra netikslingas dėl mažo biomasės prieaugio. Todėl paplitusi nuomonė, kad galima tikėtis gausaus gluosnių energetinių plantacijų derliaus skurdžiuose nederlinguose dirvožemiuose be tinkamos plantacijų priežiūros, yra nepagrįsta.
Trečia, nustatyta, kad grynasis gluosnių biokuro šilumingumas sudaro 2,4 MWh iš 1 tonos drėgnų gluosnių, o panaudojus gluosnius iš 1 hektaro energetiniams tikslams, galima sutaupyti vidutiniškai apie 2,5 tonų naftos ekvivalento energijos per metus.
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3. Nustatytas gluosnių auginimo ekonominis efektyvumas Lietuvoje: Pirma, gluosnių biokuro gamybos kaštai per 22 metus (5 auginimo
rotacijos) Lietuvoje siektų 3317 Eur/ha. Įveisimo sąnaudos sudarytų 25 proc. visų sąnaudų, priežiūros sąnaudos – 13 proc., derliaus nuėmimo – 31 proc., transportavimo – 25 proc. ir kitos sąnaudos sudarytų 6 proc. bendroje sąnaudų struktūroje. Sąnaudas didina nuosavos technikos trūkumas. Tačiau veikla nereikalauja priežiūros kiekvienais metais, todėl augintojas vienu metu gali valdyti kitus ūkius. Taip pat augintojas turi galimybę atidėti derliaus nuėmimą, pratęsiant plantacijos rotacijos laiką, o po kiekvieno derliaus nuėmimo, įvertinus investicijas ir pajamas, nuspręsti, ar tęsti gluosnių auginimo veiklą.
Antra, apskaičiuota, kad vadovaujantis esamais makroekonominiais rodikliais ir naudojant dabartinę ES paramą, investicijos į gluosnių auginimą atsipirktų 9-ais metais, vidinė grąžos norma sudarytų 16 proc., o 22–jų metų veiklos grynoji dabartinė vertė siektų 1800 Eur/ha. Apskaičiuotas nominalusis tiesioginės paramos koeficientas rodo, kad gautos subsidijos padidina ūkio savarankiškai sukurtas pajamas beveik keturiais kartais. Rezultatai rodo, kad gluosnių auginimo projektas ekonominiu požiūriu yra perspektyvus ir be subsidijų.
Trečia, gauti tyrimo rezultatai suteikia pagrindą pagrįsti politinius sprendimus dėl gluosnių energetinių plantacijų auginimo plėtros Lietuvoje, taip pat praktinės informacijos ūkininkams, tačiau kiekvienas investuotojas turi padaryti asmeninį sprendimą dėl gluosnių auginimo veiklos, priklausomai nuo jų asmeninių finansinių lūkesčių. Būtina žinoti apie santykinai ilgą atsipirkimo laikotarpį ir tai, kad pajamos iš veiklos gaunamos ne kiekvienais metais, todėl projektas gali būti ne visiems ekonomiškai patrauklus, ypač auginant nedidelius plotus, o ir subsidijų nutraukimo grėsmė gali mažinti veiklos teigiamus pinigų srautus.
4. Atlikus gluosnių energetinių plantacijų augintojų apklausą,
identifikuoti pagrindiniai šių plantacijų plėtros Lietuvoje veiksniai. Pirma, išryškėjo, kad gluosnių auginimo veiklai Lietuvoje labiausiai trukdo
ekonominiai veiksniai: stambių energiją prekiaujančių įmonių konkurencija, didelės biokuro surinkimo išlaidos, derliaus nuėmimo technikos trūkumas, maža biokuro supirkimo kaina. Šią nuomonę patvirtina ir ekonominio tyrimo rezultatai.
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Antra, skatinančių ir trukdančių veiksnių analizė, remiantis augintojų nuomone, leido spręsti, kad mažiausiai gluosnių plantacijų augintojams Lietuvoje trukdo socialiniai ir ekologiniai veiksniai. Tačiau nustatyta, kad dėl socialinių veiksnių (žinių trūkumo arba dėl nepakankamai atsakingo požiūrio į plantacijų auginimą) dažnu atveju neužtikrinama tinkama plantacijų priežiūra. Tai mažina plantacijos derlingumą. Taip pat pažymėtina, kad derliaus nuėmimo technika dažnai neįvažiuoja į plantacijas dėl oro sąlygų. Tai didina derliaus nuėmimo ir transportavimo sąnaudas ir daro įtaką galutiniam ekonominiam veiklos rezultatui.
Trečia, politiniai veiksniai dėl įsipareigojimų Europos Sąjungai šiuo metu skatina gluosnių auginimą, tačiau, augintojų nuomone, subsidijos galėtų būti didesnės. Teigiama, kad šiuo metu labiausiai skatinantis gluosnių plėtros veiksnys Lietuvoje yra ES parama. Tačiau atlikti tyrimai rodo, kad dažnu atveju tai neužtikrina derliaus nuėmimo ir galutinio produkto patekimo į rinką. Todėl būtų tikslinga keisti ES paramos skirstymo tvarką: išmokas arba jų dalį susieti su realizuota produkcija.
