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Global Warming: we’re on thin ice!. Compton Tucker NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center & Climate Change Science Program Office. Evidence of global warming Denial of global warming Convergence of evidence. Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 years. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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Global Warming: were on thin ice!Evidence of global warmingDenial of global warmingConvergence of evidence
Compton TuckerNASA/Goddard Space Flight Center & Climate Change Science Program Office
Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 years5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005
Warming greatest at high latitudesAmplification of warming due to decrease of albedo (melting of snow and ice)
Mann, Bradley, & Hughes (1998):The hockey stick surface temperature
Proxy data used by Mann et al. 1998
Tree Ring Dendrochronology
Tree Ring Dendrochronology
Tree Ring Temperature Reconstructions~40% tree ring variation is due to temperatureBest tree ring chronology is bristlecone pine series from US west that grows >3,000 m & extends >4,000 yearsMuch of the controversy over surface temperature reconstructions has been associated with tree ring proxy temperature
Some ring-width seriesCook, 1989Four red spruce ring-width series from the same stand different trends related to competition and disturbance.
Coral d18O/16O TemperatureReconstruction
Proxy Surface Temperaturesfrom corals, sediments, and ice cores using 18O/16Od18O = (18O/16O)sample - (18O/16O)SMOW x 103 (18O/16O)SMOW
SMOW = Standard Mean Ocean Water
18O: 0.20%17O: 0.04%16O: 99.76%The vapor pressure of H216O is > than that of H218O; conversely H218O passes into the liquid state more readily. Because condensation is the result of cooling, the greater the fall in temperature the lower the 18O concentration in H2O will be. Isotope concentration can thus be considered a function of temperature.
Greenland ice core: high resolution/distinct layers
Greenland ice core--yearly layers
McIntyre and McKitrick 2003a reanalysis with a subset of Mann et al. 1998s data15th century the warmest time in the past 1000 to 2000 years?Same result as Mann et al. 1998 when 5 PCs are used for 15th centurySame result as Mann et al. 1998
Proxy data used by Mann et al. 1998
Total Solar Irradiance
Arctic Sea Ice Trends 2005 summer minima1979 summer minima
Warmer Earth Greener North Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1979 to 1999Claire Parkinson et al. 2002
Majority of Glaciers are receding
Receding Glaciers
Holgate Glacier July 24, 1909Holgate Glacier August 13, 2004
Sea Level Rise from thermal expansion & input of water from melting glaciers20 cm (7 inches) in a century
Bore Hole Temperature Reconstructions
Bore Hole Locationsdifferent physics (thermal diffusivity) & 10s of years time steps
Bore Hole Temp. Reconstructions~500 years
Subsurface Annual Temperature12.8 m depth @ North Dakota
Bore Hole Data for Eastern & Western North America (Huang & Pollack)
Pollack & Huang Bore Hole Data
Bore Hole Cumulative TemperatureFigure 6 from pollack and huang p. 365
National Research Councils June 2006 Report
Data density circa 1000 AD
Data density circa 1500 AD
Equilibrium Climate from Ice Core DataJ. HansenEstimate climate forcing (W/m2) from atmospheric composition changes
Regress Temperature anomalies against climate forcing
Data
c8 = ~ 10k year periodicity
c12 = ~ 400,000 year periodicity
S modes 10 to 13 : 20k, 40k, 100k, & 400k years
Equilibrium Climate from Ice Core DataJ. HansenEstimate climate forcing (W/m2) from atmospheric composition changes
Regress Temperature anomalies against climate forcing
Atmospheric CO2 measurements
Atmospheric CO2 since 1740Different dCO2/dtime slopes reflecttechno-economic conditions
Climate Forcing: expressed as a change in radiative heating (W/m2) at surface for a given change in trace gas composition or other change external to the climate system
Where the rubber hits the roadSurface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Source: Roger Braithwaite
January 31, 2002http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002400/a002421/index.html12 mi20 km
March 7, 2002http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002400/a002421/index.html12 mi20 km
Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment500 km orbit220 km separationDistance accuracy 0.001 mm
Greenland Mass Loss from GRACE
Greenland Ice: 70 m thinning in 5 yearsSatellite record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005Surging glaciers & melting
> Streaming, >Earthquakes
Its only a matter of time400 km3 ice = 1 mm sea level
Fig1 bar + unconv.
111.168015689
38.692010039
153.22910940
EIA
IPCC
CO2 (ppmv)
600
400
200
100
300
0
500
*Oil & gas from EIA
**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large
Other
MethaneHydrates
Shale Oil
Tar Sands
? **
Emissions (CDIAC)
IPCC coal
Proven reserves*
Reserve growth
Gt C
Fossil Fuel Reservoirs and 17502004 Emissions
Fig1 bar + unconv. 2
111.168015689Oil
38.692010039Gas
153.2291094Coal0Coal
1200
EIA
IPCC
CO2 (ppmv)
600
400
200
100
300
0
500
*Oil & gas from EIA
**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large
Other
MethaneHydrates
Shale Oil
Tar Sands
? **
Emissions (CDIAC)
IPCC coal
Proven reserves*
Reserve growth
Unconv. reserves (IPCC)
Gt C
Fossil Fuel Reservoirs and 17502004 Emissions
Fig stnd case (BAU)
298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103
298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178
298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483
299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024
299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758
299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181
299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335
299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268
300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226
300.309285.309280.159923280.13309
300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414
300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574
301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741
301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061
301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381
301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801
301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317
302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068
302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706
302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674
302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379
303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245
303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462
303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351
303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013
304.006289.006280.557382280.4782
304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163
304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123
304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778
305.088290.088280.77052280.66074
305.333290.333280.82689280.70785
305.523290.523280.8777280.75119
305.671290.671280.92403280.7907
305.846290.846280.97624280.83575
306.058291.058281.03246280.88352
306.293291.293281.0948280.93671
306.572291.572281.16477280.99591
306.881291.881281.24715281.066
307.149292.149281.32358281.1311
307.435292.435281.40184281.1979
307.766292.766281.48306281.2661
308.104293.104281.56525281.3357
308.437293.437281.6399281.3967
308.787293.787281.72351281.4647
309.126294.126281.82398281.5482
309.352294.352281.92343281.6289
309.615294.615282.02894281.7154
309.95294.95282.14836281.8136
310.313295.313282.2879281.9284
310.642295.642282.42364282.038
311.054296.054282.59141282.173
311.517296.517282.78783282.3295
311.977296.977282.99218282.4915
312.444297.444283.20553282.661
312.908297.908283.42575282.8358
313.443298.443283.67626283.0369
314.024299.024283.94823283.2561
314.628299.628284.23462283.4836
315.242300.242284.52541283.7111
315.898300.898284.84426283.9586
316.586301.586285.19058284.2264
317.26302.26285.5596284.511
317.964302.964285.9626284.8219
318.717303.717286.3963285.1561
319.521304.521286.8679285.5188
320.363305.363287.3722285.9074
321.253306.253287.9215286.3316
322.163307.163288.5124286.7878
323.126308.126289.1597287.2883
324.157309.157289.8604287.8282
325.283310.283290.6277288.4271
326.443311.443291.4351289.0541
327.641312.641292.2791289.7105
328.907313.907293.1935290.432
330.14315.14294.0818291.129
331.334316.334294.8908291.75
332.618317.618295.7795292.443
333.938318.938296.6823293.156
335.251320.251297.575293.85
336.677321.677298.5386294.6
338.036323.036299.424295.272
339.295324.295300.2326295.868
340.512325.512300.9813296.412
341.708326.708301.7162296.945
342.975327.975302.4844297.488
344.294329.294303.2463298.016
345.666330.666304.0489298.592
347.07332.07304.8735299.165
348.547333.547305.7543299.78
350.048335.048306.6563300.407
351.547336.547307.6001301.059
353.055338.055308.596301.749
354.475339.475309.5197302.369
355.867340.867310.4485302.994
357.297342.297311.3811303.624
358.786343.786312.3426304.276
360.314345.314313.3312304.932
361.877346.877314.3537305.631
363.406348.406315.3874306.334
364.831349.831316.3818306.997
366.309351.309317.4374307.704
367.848352.848318.479308.389
369.419354.419319.511309.063
371.102356.102320.566309.751
372.901357.901321.673310.477
374.728359.728322.799311.218
376.586361.586323.947311.975
378.476363.476325.117312.748
380.399365.399326.308313.537
382.358367.358327.523314.343
384.354369.354328.76315.164
386.387371.387330.02316.002
388.459373.459331.305316.858
390.571375.571332.613317.73
392.724377.724333.946318.619
394.918379.918335.305319.527
397.16382.16336.689320.452
399.44384.44338.1321.396
401.76386.76339.538322.359
404.13389.13341.004323.341
406.55391.55342.498324.343
409.01394.01344.02325.364
411.53396.53345.572326.406
414.09399.09347.153327.468
416.66401.66348.723328.509
419.2404.2350.243329.491
421.72406.72351.719330.418
424.22409.22353.156331.297
426.7411.7354.56332.132
429.18414.18355.932332.925
431.66416.66357.278333.681
434.13419.13358.599334.401
436.58421.58359.874335.087
438.98423.98361.083335.741
441.36426.36362.233336.365
443.7428.7363.327336.961
446.01431.01364.368337.528
448.3433.3365.36338.07
450.57435.57366.305338.586
452.82437.82367.205339.077
455.06440.06368.065339.546
457.28442.28368.883339.992
459.49444.49369.663340.417
461.7446.7370.407340.821
463.9448.9371.114341.205
466.09451.09371.788341.57
468.29453.29372.43341.917
470.48455.48373.04342.246
472.68457.68373.62342.558
474.88459.88374.171342.853
477.08462.08374.693343.132
479.29464.29375.19343.397
481.51466.51375.66343.646
483.74468.74376.106343.882
485.98470.98376.527344.104
488.24473.24376.925344.312
490.51475.51377.301344.508
492.8477.8377.656344.692
495.1480.1377.99344.864
497.43482.43378.304345.025
499.77484.77378.599345.175
502.14487.14378.875345.314
504.53489.53379.135345.444
506.95491.95379.376345.563
509.4494.4379.601345.673
511.87496.87379.81345.774
514.38499.38380.004345.867
516.91501.91380.183345.951
519.48504.48380.348346.027
522.08507.08380.499346.095
524.72509.72380.638346.156
527.4512.4380.763346.209
530.12515.12380.876346.256
532.87517.87380.977346.295
535.67520.67381.068346.329
538.51523.51381.146346.356
541.4526.4381.215346.377
544.33529.33381.274346.393
547.2532.2381.322346.402
549.89534.89381.361346.407
552.42537.42381.392346.407
554.82539.82381.413346.401
557.08542.08381.426346.391
559.23544.23381.431346.376
561.26546.26381.429346.357
563.19548.19381.419346.334
565.02550.02381.402346.307
566.75551.75381.377346.275
568.4553.4381.347346.241
569.96554.96381.31346.202
571.44556.44381.267346.16
572.84557.84381.218346.115
574.17559.17381.163346.066
575.42560.42381.103346.015
576.61561.61381.037345.96
577.4562.4380.641345.903
578.17563.17380.273345.843
578.89563.89379.927345.781
579.59564.59379.597345.716
580.24565.24379.282345.649
580.4565.4378.523345.126
580.57565.57377.819344.646
580.73565.73377.16344.201
580.89565.89376.537343.784
581.03566.03375.944343.39
581.16566.16375.377343.015
581.27566.27374.832342.656
581.36566.36374.307342.311
581.43566.43373.799341.979
581.48566.48373.307341.657
581.52566.52372.83341.346
581.53566.53372.365341.043
581.52566.52371.914340.749
581.49566.49371.474340.463
581.45566.45371.045340.184
581.38566.38370.626339.911
581.3566.3370.218339.646
581.2566.2369.818339.386
581.09566.09369.427339.132
580.96565.96369.046338.884
580.81565.81368.673338.642
580.65565.65368.307338.404
580.48565.48367.95338.172
580.29565.29367.6337.945
580.08565.08367.257337.722
579.87564.87366.921337.503
579.64564.64366.591337.289
579.41564.41366.27337.08
579.16564.16365.953336.874
578.9563.9365.642336.672
578.63563.63365.338336.474
578.35563.35365.039336.28
578.06563.06364.746336.089
577.76562.76364.458335.902
577.45562.45364.175335.718
577.13562.13363.897335.537
576.81561.81363.625335.36
576.48561.48363.356335.185
576.14561.14363.093335.014
575.8560.8362.833334.845
575.45560.45362.578334.679
575.09560.09362.328334.516
574.72559.72362.082334.356
574.35559.35361.839334.198
573.98558.98361.601334.043
573.6558.6361.366333.89
573.21558.21361.134333.739
572.82557.82360.907333.591
572.43557.43360.682333.445
572.03557.03360.461333.301
571.63556.63360.243333.159
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biosphere
Business-as-Usual(2% annual growth until 50% depletion, then 2% annual decline)
total fossil+biosphere 15 ppm
gas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280
gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280
oil CO2 ppm + 280
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
Fig coal phaseout
298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103
298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178
298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483
299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024
299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758
299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181
299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335
299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268
300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226
300.309285.309280.159923280.13309
300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414
300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574
301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741
301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061
301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381
301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801
301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317
302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068
302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706
302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674
302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379
303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245
303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462
303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351
303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013
304.006289.006280.557382280.4782
304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163
304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123
304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778
305.088290.088280.77052280.66074
305.333290.333280.82689280.70785
305.523290.523280.8777280.75119
305.671290.671280.92403280.7907
305.846290.846280.97624280.83575
306.058291.058281.03246280.88352
306.293291.293281.0948280.93671
306.572291.572281.16477280.99591
306.881291.881281.24715281.066
307.149292.149281.32358281.1311
307.435292.435281.40184281.1979
307.766292.766281.48306281.2661
308.104293.104281.56525281.3357
308.437293.437281.6399281.3967
308.787293.787281.72351281.4647
309.126294.126281.82398281.5482
309.352294.352281.92343281.6289
309.615294.615282.02894281.7154
309.95294.95282.14836281.8136
310.313295.313282.2879281.9284
310.642295.642282.42364282.038
311.054296.054282.59141282.173
311.517296.517282.78783282.3295
311.977296.977282.99218282.4915
312.444297.444283.20553282.661
312.908297.908283.42575282.8358
313.443298.443283.67626283.0369
314.024299.024283.94823283.2561
314.628299.628284.23462283.4836
315.242300.242284.52541283.7111
315.898300.898284.84426283.9586
316.586301.586285.19058284.2264
317.26302.26285.5596284.511
317.964302.964285.9626284.8219
318.717303.717286.3963285.1561
319.521304.521286.8679285.5188
320.363305.363287.3722285.9074
321.253306.253287.9215286.3316
322.163307.163288.5124286.7878
323.126308.126289.1597287.2883
324.157309.157289.8604287.8282
325.283310.283290.6277288.4271
326.443311.443291.4351289.0541
327.641312.641292.2791289.7105
328.907313.907293.1935290.432
330.14315.14294.0818291.129
331.334316.334294.8908291.75
332.618317.618295.7795292.443
333.938318.938296.6823293.156
335.251320.251297.575293.85
336.677321.677298.5386294.6
338.036323.036299.424295.272
339.295324.295300.2326295.868
340.512325.512300.9813296.412
341.708326.708301.7162296.945
342.975327.975302.4844297.488
344.294329.294303.2463298.016
345.666330.666304.0489298.592
347.07332.07304.8735299.165
348.547333.547305.7543299.78
350.048335.048306.6563300.407
351.547336.547307.6001301.059
353.055338.055308.596301.749
354.475339.475309.5197302.369
355.867340.867310.4485302.994
357.297342.297311.3811303.624
358.786343.786312.3426304.276
360.314345.314313.3312304.932
361.877346.877314.3537305.631
363.406348.406315.3874306.334
364.831349.831316.3818306.997
366.309351.309317.4374307.704
367.848352.848318.479308.389
369.419354.419319.511309.063
371.102356.102320.566309.751
372.901357.901321.673310.477
374.728359.728322.799311.218
376.586361.586323.947311.975
378.476363.476325.117312.748
380.399365.399326.308313.537
382.358367.358327.523314.343
384.354369.354328.76315.164
386.387371.387330.02316.002
388.459373.459331.305316.858
390.555375.555332.613317.73
392.677377.677333.946318.619
394.826379.826335.305319.527
397382336.689320.452
399.21384.21338.1321.396
401.45386.45339.538322.359
403.72388.72341.004323.341
406.02391.02342.498324.343
408.35393.35344.02325.364
410.72395.72345.572326.406
413.11398.11347.153327.468
415.48400.48348.723328.509
417.78402.78350.243329.491
419.96404.96351.719330.418
422.03407.03353.156331.297
424409354.56332.132
425.87410.87355.932332.925
427.66412.66357.278333.681
429.36414.36358.599334.401
430.96415.96359.874335.087
432.45417.45361.083335.741
433.82418.82362.233336.365
435.08420.08363.327336.961
436.24421.24364.368337.528
437.3422.3365.36338.07
438.27423.27366.305338.586
439.14424.14367.205339.077
439.93424.93368.065339.546
440.63425.63368.883339.992
441.25426.25369.663340.417
441.79426.79370.407340.821
442.25427.25371.114341.205
442.64427.64371.788341.57
442.94427.94372.43341.917
443.18428.18373.04342.246
443.35428.35373.62342.558
443.44428.44374.171342.853
443.47428.47374.693343.132
443.5428.5375.19343.397
443.54428.54375.66343.646
443.57428.57376.106343.882
443.59428.59376.527344.104
443.61428.61376.925344.312
443.62428.62377.301344.508
443.62428.62377.656344.692
443.61428.61377.99344.864
443.6428.6378.304345.025
443.57428.57378.599345.175
443.54428.54378.875345.314
443.49428.49379.135345.444
443.44428.44379.376345.563
443.38428.38379.601345.673
443.31428.31379.81345.774
443.24428.24380.004345.867
443.15428.15380.183345.951
443.06428.06380.348346.027
442.96427.96380.499346.095
442.86427.86380.638346.156
442.75427.75380.763346.209
442.63427.63380.875346.255
442.5427.5380.977346.295
442.37427.37381.068346.329
442.23427.23381.146346.356
442.09427.09381.215346.377
441.94426.94381.274346.393
441.79426.79381.322346.402
441.63426.63381.361346.407
441.46426.46381.392346.407
441.3426.3381.413346.401
441.12426.12381.426346.391
440.95425.95381.431346.376
440.77425.77381.429346.357
440.58425.58381.419346.334
440.39425.39381.402346.307
440.2425.2381.377346.275
440.01425.01381.347346.241
439.81424.81381.31346.202
439.61424.61381.267346.16
439.4424.4381.218346.115
439.2424.2381.163346.066
438.99423.99381.103346.015
438.77423.77381.037345.96
438.23423.23380.641345.903
437.72422.72380.273345.843
437.24422.24379.927345.781
436.77421.77379.597345.716
436.32421.32379.282345.649
435.88420.88378.976345.579
435.01420.01378.236345.063
434.2419.2377.549344.59
433.42418.42376.903344.15
432.69417.69376.292343.738
431.99416.99375.71343.348
431.31416.31375.153342.977
430.66415.66374.618342.622
430.02415.02374.101342.281
429.41414.41373.602341.952
428.81413.81373.118341.634
428.23413.23372.648341.326
427.66412.66372.191341.026
427.11412.11371.746340.735
426.57411.57371.313340.452
426.04411.04370.89340.175
425.52410.52370.477339.905
425.02410.02370.074339.642
424.52409.52369.68339.385
424.04409.04369.295339.133
423.57408.57368.919338.888
423.1408.1368.55338.647
422.64407.64368.19338.412
422.2407.2367.837338.182
421.76406.76367.491337.956
421.33406.33367.153337.735
420.9405.9366.82337.518
420.49405.49366.496337.306
420.08405.08366.177337.098
419.68404.68365.864336.894
419.29404.29365.558336.694
418.9403.9365.256336.497
418.52403.52364.962336.305
418.15403.15364.671336.115
417.78402.78364.386335.929
417.42402.42364.107335.747
417.07402.07363.832335.567
416.72401.72363.562335.391
416.37401.37363.297335.218
416.03401.03363.036335.048
415.7400.7362.779334.88
415.37400.37362.528334.716
415.05400.05362.28334.554
414.73399.73362.035334.394
414.42399.42361.795334.237
414.11399.11361.559334.083
413.8398.8361.326333.931
413.5398.5361.097333.781
413.21398.21360.871333.634
412.91397.91360.649333.489
412.63397.63360.43333.346
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biosphere
Alternative Case: Coal Phaseout(+2%/yr to 2012; +1%/yr to 2022; linear shutdown between 2025-2050)
total fossil+biosphere 15 ppm
gas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280
gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280
oil CO2 ppm + 280
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
What, me worry?
Fig1 bar + unconv.
111.168015689
38.692010039
153.22910940
EIA
IPCC
CO2 (ppmv)
600
400
200
100
300
0
500
*Oil & gas from EIA
**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large
Other
MethaneHydrates
Shale Oil
Tar Sands
? **
Emissions (CDIAC)
IPCC coal
Proven reserves*
Reserve growth
Gt C
Fossil Fuel Reservoirs and 17502004 Emissions
Fig1 bar + unconv. 2
111.168015689Oil
38.692010039Gas
153.2291094Coal0Coal
1200
EIA
IPCC
CO2 (ppmv)
600
400
200
100
300
0
500
*Oil & gas from EIA
**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large
Other
MethaneHydrates
Shale Oil
Tar Sands
? **
Emissions (CDIAC)
IPCC coal
Proven reserves*
Reserve growth
Unconv. reserves (IPCC)
Gt C
Fossil Fuel Reservoirs and 17502004 Emissions
Fig stnd case (BAU)
298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103
298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178
298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483
299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024
299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758
299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181
299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335
299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268
300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226
300.309285.309280.159923280.13309
300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414
300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574
301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741
301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061
301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381
301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801
301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317
302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068
302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706
302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674
302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379
303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245
303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462
303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351
303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013
304.006289.006280.557382280.4782
304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163
304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123
304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778
305.088290.088280.77052280.66074
305.333290.333280.82689280.70785
305.523290.523280.8777280.75119
305.671290.671280.92403280.7907
305.846290.846280.97624280.83575
306.058291.058281.03246280.88352
306.293291.293281.0948280.93671
306.572291.572281.16477280.99591
306.881291.881281.24715281.066
307.149292.149281.32358281.1311
307.435292.435281.40184281.1979
307.766292.766281.48306281.2661
308.104293.104281.56525281.3357
308.437293.437281.6399281.3967
308.787293.787281.72351281.4647
309.126294.126281.82398281.5482
309.352294.352281.92343281.6289
309.615294.615282.02894281.7154
309.95294.95282.14836281.8136
310.313295.313282.2879281.9284
310.642295.642282.42364282.038
311.054296.054282.59141282.173
311.517296.517282.78783282.3295
311.977296.977282.99218282.4915
312.444297.444283.20553282.661
312.908297.908283.42575282.8358
313.443298.443283.67626283.0369
314.024299.024283.94823283.2561
314.628299.628284.23462283.4836
315.242300.242284.52541283.7111
315.898300.898284.84426283.9586
316.586301.586285.19058284.2264
317.26302.26285.5596284.511
317.964302.964285.9626284.8219
318.717303.717286.3963285.1561
319.521304.521286.8679285.5188
320.363305.363287.3722285.9074
321.253306.253287.9215286.3316
322.163307.163288.5124286.7878
323.126308.126289.1597287.2883
324.157309.157289.8604287.8282
325.283310.283290.6277288.4271
326.443311.443291.4351289.0541
327.641312.641292.2791289.7105
328.907313.907293.1935290.432
330.14315.14294.0818291.129
331.334316.334294.8908291.75
332.618317.618295.7795292.443
333.938318.938296.6823293.156
335.251320.251297.575293.85
336.677321.677298.5386294.6
338.036323.036299.424295.272
339.295324.295300.2326295.868
340.512325.512300.9813296.412
341.708326.708301.7162296.945
342.975327.975302.4844297.488
344.294329.294303.2463298.016
345.666330.666304.0489298.592
347.07332.07304.8735299.165
348.547333.547305.7543299.78
350.048335.048306.6563300.407
351.547336.547307.6001301.059
353.055338.055308.596301.749
354.475339.475309.5197302.369
355.867340.867310.4485302.994
357.297342.297311.3811303.624
358.786343.786312.3426304.276
360.314345.314313.3312304.932
361.877346.877314.3537305.631
363.406348.406315.3874306.334
364.831349.831316.3818306.997
366.309351.309317.4374307.704
367.848352.848318.479308.389
369.419354.419319.511309.063
371.102356.102320.566309.751
372.901357.901321.673310.477
374.728359.728322.799311.218
376.586361.586323.947311.975
378.476363.476325.117312.748
380.399365.399326.308313.537
382.358367.358327.523314.343
384.354369.354328.76315.164
386.387371.387330.02316.002
388.459373.459331.305316.858
390.571375.571332.613317.73
392.724377.724333.946318.619
394.918379.918335.305319.527
397.16382.16336.689320.452
399.44384.44338.1321.396
401.76386.76339.538322.359
404.13389.13341.004323.341
406.55391.55342.498324.343
409.01394.01344.02325.364
411.53396.53345.572326.406
414.09399.09347.153327.468
416.66401.66348.723328.509
419.2404.2350.243329.491
421.72406.72351.719330.418
424.22409.22353.156331.297
426.7411.7354.56332.132
429.18414.18355.932332.925
431.66416.66357.278333.681
434.13419.13358.599334.401
436.58421.58359.874335.087
438.98423.98361.083335.741
441.36426.36362.233336.365
443.7428.7363.327336.961
446.01431.01364.368337.528
448.3433.3365.36338.07
450.57435.57366.305338.586
452.82437.82367.205339.077
455.06440.06368.065339.546
457.28442.28368.883339.992
459.49444.49369.663340.417
461.7446.7370.407340.821
463.9448.9371.114341.205
466.09451.09371.788341.57
468.29453.29372.43341.917
470.48455.48373.04342.246
472.68457.68373.62342.558
474.88459.88374.171342.853
477.08462.08374.693343.132
479.29464.29375.19343.397
481.51466.51375.66343.646
483.74468.74376.106343.882
485.98470.98376.527344.104
488.24473.24376.925344.312
490.51475.51377.301344.508
492.8477.8377.656344.692
495.1480.1377.99344.864
497.43482.43378.304345.025
499.77484.77378.599345.175
502.14487.14378.875345.314
504.53489.53379.135345.444
506.95491.95379.376345.563
509.4494.4379.601345.673
511.87496.87379.81345.774
514.38499.38380.004345.867
516.91501.91380.183345.951
519.48504.48380.348346.027
522.08507.08380.499346.095
524.72509.72380.638346.156
527.4512.4380.763346.209
530.12515.12380.876346.256
532.87517.87380.977346.295
535.67520.67381.068346.329
538.51523.51381.146346.356
541.4526.4381.215346.377
544.33529.33381.274346.393
547.2532.2381.322346.402
549.89534.89381.361346.407
552.42537.42381.392346.407
554.82539.82381.413346.401
557.08542.08381.426346.391
559.23544.23381.431346.376
561.26546.26381.429346.357
563.19548.19381.419346.334
565.02550.02381.402346.307
566.75551.75381.377346.275
568.4553.4381.347346.241
569.96554.96381.31346.202
571.44556.44381.267346.16
572.84557.84381.218346.115
574.17559.17381.163346.066
575.42560.42381.103346.015
576.61561.61381.037345.96
577.4562.4380.641345.903
578.17563.17380.273345.843
578.89563.89379.927345.781
579.59564.59379.597345.716
580.24565.24379.282345.649
580.4565.4378.523345.126
580.57565.57377.819344.646
580.73565.73377.16344.201
580.89565.89376.537343.784
581.03566.03375.944343.39
581.16566.16375.377343.015
581.27566.27374.832342.656
581.36566.36374.307342.311
581.43566.43373.799341.979
581.48566.48373.307341.657
581.52566.52372.83341.346
581.53566.53372.365341.043
581.52566.52371.914340.749
581.49566.49371.474340.463
581.45566.45371.045340.184
581.38566.38370.626339.911
581.3566.3370.218339.646
581.2566.2369.818339.386
581.09566.09369.427339.132
580.96565.96369.046338.884
580.81565.81368.673338.642
580.65565.65368.307338.404
580.48565.48367.95338.172
580.29565.29367.6337.945
580.08565.08367.257337.722
579.87564.87366.921337.503
579.64564.64366.591337.289
579.41564.41366.27337.08
579.16564.16365.953336.874
578.9563.9365.642336.672
578.63563.63365.338336.474
578.35563.35365.039336.28
578.06563.06364.746336.089
577.76562.76364.458335.902
577.45562.45364.175335.718
577.13562.13363.897335.537
576.81561.81363.625335.36
576.48561.48363.356335.185
576.14561.14363.093335.014
575.8560.8362.833334.845
575.45560.45362.578334.679
575.09560.09362.328334.516
574.72559.72362.082334.356
574.35559.35361.839334.198
573.98558.98361.601334.043
573.6558.6361.366333.89
573.21558.21361.134333.739
572.82557.82360.907333.591
572.43557.43360.682333.445
572.03557.03360.461333.301
571.63556.63360.243333.159
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biosphere
Business-as-Usual(2% annual growth until 50% depletion, then 2% annual decline)
total fossil+biosphere 15 ppm
gas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280
gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280
oil CO2 ppm + 280
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
Fig coal phaseout
298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103
298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178
298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483
299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024
299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758
299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181
299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335
299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268
300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226
300.309285.309280.159923280.13309
300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414
300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574
301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741
301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061
301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381
301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801
301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317
302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068
302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706
302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674
302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379
303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245
303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462
303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351
303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013
304.006289.006280.557382280.4782
304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163
304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123
304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778
305.088290.088280.77052280.66074
305.333290.333280.82689280.70785
305.523290.523280.8777280.75119
305.671290.671280.92403280.7907
305.846290.846280.97624280.83575
306.058291.058281.03246280.88352
306.293291.293281.0948280.93671
306.572291.572281.16477280.99591
306.881291.881281.24715281.066
307.149292.149281.32358281.1311
307.435292.435281.40184281.1979
307.766292.766281.48306281.2661
308.104293.104281.56525281.3357
308.437293.437281.6399281.3967
308.787293.787281.72351281.4647
309.126294.126281.82398281.5482
309.352294.352281.92343281.6289
309.615294.615282.02894281.7154
309.95294.95282.14836281.8136
310.313295.313282.2879281.9284
310.642295.642282.42364282.038
311.054296.054282.59141282.173
311.517296.517282.78783282.3295
311.977296.977282.99218282.4915
312.444297.444283.20553282.661
312.908297.908283.42575282.8358
313.443298.443283.67626283.0369
314.024299.024283.94823283.2561
314.628299.628284.23462283.4836
315.242300.242284.52541283.7111
315.898300.898284.84426283.9586
316.586301.586285.19058284.2264
317.26302.26285.5596284.511
317.964302.964285.9626284.8219
318.717303.717286.3963285.1561
319.521304.521286.8679285.5188
320.363305.363287.3722285.9074
321.253306.253287.9215286.3316
322.163307.163288.5124286.7878
323.126308.126289.1597287.2883
324.157309.157289.8604287.8282
325.283310.283290.6277288.4271
326.443311.443291.4351289.0541
327.641312.641292.2791289.7105
328.907313.907293.1935290.432
330.14315.14294.0818291.129
331.334316.334294.8908291.75
332.618317.618295.7795292.443
333.938318.938296.6823293.156
335.251320.251297.575293.85
336.677321.677298.5386294.6
338.036323.036299.424295.272
339.295324.295300.2326295.868
340.512325.512300.9813296.412
341.708326.708301.7162296.945
342.975327.975302.4844297.488
344.294329.294303.2463298.016
345.666330.666304.0489298.592
347.07332.07304.8735299.165
348.547333.547305.7543299.78
350.048335.048306.6563300.407
351.547336.547307.6001301.059
353.055338.055308.596301.749
354.475339.475309.5197302.369
355.867340.867310.4485302.994
357.297342.297311.3811303.624
358.786343.786312.3426304.276
360.314345.314313.3312304.932
361.877346.877314.3537305.631
363.406348.406315.3874306.334
364.831349.831316.3818306.997
366.309351.309317.4374307.704
367.848352.848318.479308.389
369.419354.419319.511309.063
371.102356.102320.566309.751
372.901357.901321.673310.477
374.728359.728322.799311.218
376.586361.586323.947311.975
378.476363.476325.117312.748
380.399365.399326.308313.537
382.358367.358327.523314.343
384.354369.354328.76315.164
386.387371.387330.02316.002
388.459373.459331.305316.858
390.555375.555332.613317.73
392.677377.677333.946318.619
394.826379.826335.305319.527
397382336.689320.452
399.21384.21338.1321.396
401.45386.45339.538322.359
403.72388.72341.004323.341
406.02391.02342.498324.343
408.35393.35344.02325.364
410.72395.72345.572326.406
413.11398.11347.153327.468
415.48400.48348.723328.509
417.78402.78350.243329.491
419.96404.96351.719330.418
422.03407.03353.156331.297
424409354.56332.132
425.87410.87355.932332.925
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429.36414.36358.599334.401
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432.45417.45361.083335.741
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415.7400.7362.779334.88
415.37400.37362.528334.716
415.05400.05362.28334.554
414.73399.73362.035334.394
414.42399.42361.795334.237
414.11399.11361.559334.083
413.8398.8361.326333.931
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412.63397.63360.43333.346
Oil
Gas
Coal
Biosphere
Alternative Case: Coal Phaseout(+2%/yr to 2012; +1%/yr to 2022; linear shutdown between 2025-2050)
total fossil+biosphere 15 ppm
gas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280
gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280
oil CO2 ppm + 280
Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)
J. Hansen