Global Warming: we’re on thin ice!

Global Warming: were on thin ice!Evidence of global warmingDenial of global warmingConvergence of evidence

Compton TuckerNASA/Goddard Space Flight Center & Climate Change Science Program Office

Measured Surface Temperature the past 150 years5 warmest years: 1998, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005

Warming greatest at high latitudesAmplification of warming due to decrease of albedo (melting of snow and ice)

Mann, Bradley, & Hughes (1998):The hockey stick surface temperature

Proxy data used by Mann et al. 1998

Tree Ring Dendrochronology

Tree Ring Temperature Reconstructions~40% tree ring variation is due to temperatureBest tree ring chronology is bristlecone pine series from US west that grows >3,000 m & extends >4,000 yearsMuch of the controversy over surface temperature reconstructions has been associated with tree ring proxy temperature

Some ring-width seriesCook, 1989Four red spruce ring-width series from the same stand different trends related to competition and disturbance.

Coral d18O/16O TemperatureReconstruction

Proxy Surface Temperaturesfrom corals, sediments, and ice cores using 18O/16Od18O = (18O/16O)sample - (18O/16O)SMOW x 103 (18O/16O)SMOW

SMOW = Standard Mean Ocean Water

18O: 0.20%17O: 0.04%16O: 99.76%The vapor pressure of H216O is > than that of H218O; conversely H218O passes into the liquid state more readily. Because condensation is the result of cooling, the greater the fall in temperature the lower the 18O concentration in H2O will be. Isotope concentration can thus be considered a function of temperature.

Greenland ice core: high resolution/distinct layers

Greenland ice core--yearly layers

McIntyre and McKitrick 2003a reanalysis with a subset of Mann et al. 1998s data15th century the warmest time in the past 1000 to 2000 years?Same result as Mann et al. 1998 when 5 PCs are used for 15th centurySame result as Mann et al. 1998

Proxy data used by Mann et al. 1998

Total Solar Irradiance

Arctic Sea Ice Trends 2005 summer minima1979 summer minima

Warmer Earth Greener North Arctic Sea Ice Extent 1979 to 1999Claire Parkinson et al. 2002

Majority of Glaciers are receding

Receding Glaciers

Holgate Glacier July 24, 1909Holgate Glacier August 13, 2004

Sea Level Rise from thermal expansion & input of water from melting glaciers20 cm (7 inches) in a century

Bore Hole Temperature Reconstructions

Bore Hole Locationsdifferent physics (thermal diffusivity) & 10s of years time steps

Bore Hole Temp. Reconstructions~500 years

Subsurface Annual Temperature12.8 m depth @ North Dakota

Bore Hole Data for Eastern & Western North America (Huang & Pollack)

Pollack & Huang Bore Hole Data

Bore Hole Cumulative TemperatureFigure 6 from pollack and huang p. 365

National Research Councils June 2006 Report

Data density circa 1000 AD

Data density circa 1500 AD

Equilibrium Climate from Ice Core DataJ. HansenEstimate climate forcing (W/m2) from atmospheric composition changes

Regress Temperature anomalies against climate forcing

c8 = ~ 10k year periodicity

c12 = ~ 400,000 year periodicity

S modes 10 to 13 : 20k, 40k, 100k, & 400k years

Equilibrium Climate from Ice Core DataJ. HansenEstimate climate forcing (W/m2) from atmospheric composition changes

Regress Temperature anomalies against climate forcing

Atmospheric CO2 measurements

Atmospheric CO2 since 1740Different dCO2/dtime slopes reflecttechno-economic conditions

Climate Forcing: expressed as a change in radiative heating (W/m2) at surface for a given change in trace gas composition or other change external to the climate system

Where the rubber hits the roadSurface melt on Greenland ice sheet descending into moulin, a vertical shaft carrying the water to base of ice sheet. Source: Roger Braithwaite

January 31, 2002http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002400/a002421/index.html12 mi20 km

March 7, 2002http://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/vis/a000000/a002400/a002421/index.html12 mi20 km

Gravity Recovery & Climate Experiment500 km orbit220 km separationDistance accuracy 0.001 mm

Greenland Mass Loss from GRACE

Greenland Ice: 70 m thinning in 5 yearsSatellite record melt of 2002 was exceeded in 2005Surging glaciers & melting

> Streaming, >Earthquakes

Its only a matter of time400 km3 ice = 1 mm sea level

Fig1 bar + unconv.

111.168015689

38.692010039

153.22910940

EIA

IPCC

CO2 (ppmv)

600

400

200

100

300

0

500

*Oil & gas from EIA

**Unconventional oil & gas; uncertain, could be large

Other

MethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands

? **

Emissions (CDIAC)

IPCC coal

Proven reserves*

Reserve growth

Gt C

Fossil Fuel Reservoirs and 17502004 Emissions

Fig1 bar + unconv. 2

111.168015689Oil

38.692010039Gas

153.2291094Coal0Coal

1200

EIA

IPCC

CO2 (ppmv)

600

400

200

100

300

0

500

*Oil & gas from EIA


Other

MethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands

? **

Emissions (CDIAC)

IPCC coal

Proven reserves*

Reserve growth

Unconv. reserves (IPCC)

Gt C


Fig stnd case (BAU)

298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103

298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178

298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483

299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024

299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758

299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181

299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335

299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268

300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226

300.309285.309280.159923280.13309

300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414

300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574

301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741

301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061

301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381

301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801

301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317

302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068

302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706

302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674

302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379

303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245

303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462

303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351

303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013

304.006289.006280.557382280.4782

304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163

304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123

304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778

305.088290.088280.77052280.66074

305.333290.333280.82689280.70785

305.523290.523280.8777280.75119

305.671290.671280.92403280.7907

305.846290.846280.97624280.83575

306.058291.058281.03246280.88352

306.293291.293281.0948280.93671

306.572291.572281.16477280.99591

306.881291.881281.24715281.066

307.149292.149281.32358281.1311

307.435292.435281.40184281.1979

307.766292.766281.48306281.2661

308.104293.104281.56525281.3357

308.437293.437281.6399281.3967

308.787293.787281.72351281.4647

309.126294.126281.82398281.5482

309.352294.352281.92343281.6289

309.615294.615282.02894281.7154

309.95294.95282.14836281.8136

310.313295.313282.2879281.9284

310.642295.642282.42364282.038

311.054296.054282.59141282.173

311.517296.517282.78783282.3295

311.977296.977282.99218282.4915

312.444297.444283.20553282.661

312.908297.908283.42575282.8358

313.443298.443283.67626283.0369

314.024299.024283.94823283.2561

314.628299.628284.23462283.4836

315.242300.242284.52541283.7111

315.898300.898284.84426283.9586

316.586301.586285.19058284.2264

317.26302.26285.5596284.511

317.964302.964285.9626284.8219

318.717303.717286.3963285.1561

319.521304.521286.8679285.5188

320.363305.363287.3722285.9074

321.253306.253287.9215286.3316

322.163307.163288.5124286.7878

323.126308.126289.1597287.2883

324.157309.157289.8604287.8282

325.283310.283290.6277288.4271

326.443311.443291.4351289.0541

327.641312.641292.2791289.7105

328.907313.907293.1935290.432

330.14315.14294.0818291.129

331.334316.334294.8908291.75

332.618317.618295.7795292.443

333.938318.938296.6823293.156

335.251320.251297.575293.85

336.677321.677298.5386294.6

338.036323.036299.424295.272

339.295324.295300.2326295.868

340.512325.512300.9813296.412

341.708326.708301.7162296.945

342.975327.975302.4844297.488

344.294329.294303.2463298.016

345.666330.666304.0489298.592

347.07332.07304.8735299.165

348.547333.547305.7543299.78

350.048335.048306.6563300.407

351.547336.547307.6001301.059

353.055338.055308.596301.749

354.475339.475309.5197302.369

355.867340.867310.4485302.994

357.297342.297311.3811303.624

358.786343.786312.3426304.276

360.314345.314313.3312304.932

361.877346.877314.3537305.631

363.406348.406315.3874306.334

364.831349.831316.3818306.997

366.309351.309317.4374307.704

367.848352.848318.479308.389

369.419354.419319.511309.063

371.102356.102320.566309.751

372.901357.901321.673310.477

374.728359.728322.799311.218

376.586361.586323.947311.975

378.476363.476325.117312.748

380.399365.399326.308313.537

382.358367.358327.523314.343

384.354369.354328.76315.164

386.387371.387330.02316.002

388.459373.459331.305316.858

390.571375.571332.613317.73

392.724377.724333.946318.619

394.918379.918335.305319.527

397.16382.16336.689320.452

399.44384.44338.1321.396

401.76386.76339.538322.359

404.13389.13341.004323.341

406.55391.55342.498324.343

409.01394.01344.02325.364

411.53396.53345.572326.406

414.09399.09347.153327.468

416.66401.66348.723328.509

419.2404.2350.243329.491

421.72406.72351.719330.418

424.22409.22353.156331.297

426.7411.7354.56332.132

429.18414.18355.932332.925

431.66416.66357.278333.681

434.13419.13358.599334.401

436.58421.58359.874335.087

438.98423.98361.083335.741

441.36426.36362.233336.365

443.7428.7363.327336.961

446.01431.01364.368337.528

448.3433.3365.36338.07

450.57435.57366.305338.586

452.82437.82367.205339.077

455.06440.06368.065339.546

457.28442.28368.883339.992

459.49444.49369.663340.417

461.7446.7370.407340.821

463.9448.9371.114341.205

466.09451.09371.788341.57

468.29453.29372.43341.917

470.48455.48373.04342.246

472.68457.68373.62342.558

474.88459.88374.171342.853

477.08462.08374.693343.132

479.29464.29375.19343.397

481.51466.51375.66343.646

483.74468.74376.106343.882

485.98470.98376.527344.104

488.24473.24376.925344.312

490.51475.51377.301344.508

492.8477.8377.656344.692

495.1480.1377.99344.864

497.43482.43378.304345.025

499.77484.77378.599345.175

502.14487.14378.875345.314

504.53489.53379.135345.444

506.95491.95379.376345.563

509.4494.4379.601345.673

511.87496.87379.81345.774

514.38499.38380.004345.867

516.91501.91380.183345.951

519.48504.48380.348346.027

522.08507.08380.499346.095

524.72509.72380.638346.156

527.4512.4380.763346.209

530.12515.12380.876346.256

532.87517.87380.977346.295

535.67520.67381.068346.329

538.51523.51381.146346.356

541.4526.4381.215346.377

544.33529.33381.274346.393

547.2532.2381.322346.402

549.89534.89381.361346.407

552.42537.42381.392346.407

554.82539.82381.413346.401

557.08542.08381.426346.391

559.23544.23381.431346.376

561.26546.26381.429346.357

563.19548.19381.419346.334

565.02550.02381.402346.307

566.75551.75381.377346.275

568.4553.4381.347346.241

569.96554.96381.31346.202

571.44556.44381.267346.16

572.84557.84381.218346.115

574.17559.17381.163346.066

575.42560.42381.103346.015

576.61561.61381.037345.96

577.4562.4380.641345.903

578.17563.17380.273345.843

578.89563.89379.927345.781

579.59564.59379.597345.716

580.24565.24379.282345.649

580.4565.4378.523345.126

580.57565.57377.819344.646

580.73565.73377.16344.201

580.89565.89376.537343.784

581.03566.03375.944343.39

581.16566.16375.377343.015

581.27566.27374.832342.656

581.36566.36374.307342.311

581.43566.43373.799341.979

581.48566.48373.307341.657

581.52566.52372.83341.346

581.53566.53372.365341.043

581.52566.52371.914340.749

581.49566.49371.474340.463

581.45566.45371.045340.184

581.38566.38370.626339.911

581.3566.3370.218339.646

581.2566.2369.818339.386

581.09566.09369.427339.132

580.96565.96369.046338.884

580.81565.81368.673338.642

580.65565.65368.307338.404

580.48565.48367.95338.172

580.29565.29367.6337.945

580.08565.08367.257337.722

579.87564.87366.921337.503

579.64564.64366.591337.289

579.41564.41366.27337.08

579.16564.16365.953336.874

578.9563.9365.642336.672

578.63563.63365.338336.474

578.35563.35365.039336.28

578.06563.06364.746336.089

577.76562.76364.458335.902

577.45562.45364.175335.718

577.13562.13363.897335.537

576.81561.81363.625335.36

576.48561.48363.356335.185

576.14561.14363.093335.014

575.8560.8362.833334.845

575.45560.45362.578334.679

575.09560.09362.328334.516

574.72559.72362.082334.356

574.35559.35361.839334.198

573.98558.98361.601334.043

573.6558.6361.366333.89

573.21558.21361.134333.739

572.82557.82360.907333.591

572.43557.43360.682333.445

572.03557.03360.461333.301

571.63556.63360.243333.159

Oil

Gas

Coal

Biosphere

Business-as-Usual(2% annual growth until 50% depletion, then 2% annual decline)

total fossil+biosphere 15 ppm

gas+oil+coalCO2 ppm + 280

gas+oil CO2 ppm + 280

oil CO2 ppm + 280

Atmospheric CO2 (ppmv)

Fig coal phaseout

298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103

298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178

298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483

299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024

299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758

299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181

299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335

299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268

300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226

300.309285.309280.159923280.13309

300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414

300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574

301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741

301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061

301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381

301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801

301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317

302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068

302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706

302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674

302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379

303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245

303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462

303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351

303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013

304.006289.006280.557382280.4782

304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163

304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123

304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778

305.088290.088280.77052280.66074

305.333290.333280.82689280.70785

305.523290.523280.8777280.75119

305.671290.671280.92403280.7907

305.846290.846280.97624280.83575

306.058291.058281.03246280.88352

306.293291.293281.0948280.93671

306.572291.572281.16477280.99591

306.881291.881281.24715281.066

307.149292.149281.32358281.1311

307.435292.435281.40184281.1979

307.766292.766281.48306281.2661

308.104293.104281.56525281.3357

308.437293.437281.6399281.3967

308.787293.787281.72351281.4647

309.126294.126281.82398281.5482

309.352294.352281.92343281.6289

309.615294.615282.02894281.7154

309.95294.95282.14836281.8136

310.313295.313282.2879281.9284

310.642295.642282.42364282.038

311.054296.054282.59141282.173

311.517296.517282.78783282.3295

311.977296.977282.99218282.4915

312.444297.444283.20553282.661

312.908297.908283.42575282.8358

313.443298.443283.67626283.0369

314.024299.024283.94823283.2561

314.628299.628284.23462283.4836

315.242300.242284.52541283.7111

315.898300.898284.84426283.9586

316.586301.586285.19058284.2264

317.26302.26285.5596284.511

317.964302.964285.9626284.8219

318.717303.717286.3963285.1561

319.521304.521286.8679285.5188

320.363305.363287.3722285.9074

321.253306.253287.9215286.3316

322.163307.163288.5124286.7878

323.126308.126289.1597287.2883

324.157309.157289.8604287.8282

325.283310.283290.6277288.4271

326.443311.443291.4351289.0541

327.641312.641292.2791289.7105

328.907313.907293.1935290.432

330.14315.14294.0818291.129

331.334316.334294.8908291.75

332.618317.618295.7795292.443

333.938318.938296.6823293.156

335.251320.251297.575293.85

336.677321.677298.5386294.6

338.036323.036299.424295.272

339.295324.295300.2326295.868

340.512325.512300.9813296.412

341.708326.708301.7162296.945

342.975327.975302.4844297.488

344.294329.294303.2463298.016

345.666330.666304.0489298.592

347.07332.07304.8735299.165

348.547333.547305.7543299.78

350.048335.048306.6563300.407

351.547336.547307.6001301.059

353.055338.055308.596301.749

354.475339.475309.5197302.369

355.867340.867310.4485302.994

357.297342.297311.3811303.624

358.786343.786312.3426304.276

360.314345.314313.3312304.932

361.877346.877314.3537305.631

363.406348.406315.3874306.334

364.831349.831316.3818306.997

366.309351.309317.4374307.704

367.848352.848318.479308.389

369.419354.419319.511309.063

371.102356.102320.566309.751

372.901357.901321.673310.477

374.728359.728322.799311.218

376.586361.586323.947311.975

378.476363.476325.117312.748

380.399365.399326.308313.537

382.358367.358327.523314.343

384.354369.354328.76315.164

386.387371.387330.02316.002

388.459373.459331.305316.858

390.555375.555332.613317.73

392.677377.677333.946318.619

394.826379.826335.305319.527

397382336.689320.452

399.21384.21338.1321.396

401.45386.45339.538322.359

403.72388.72341.004323.341

406.02391.02342.498324.343

408.35393.35344.02325.364

410.72395.72345.572326.406

413.11398.11347.153327.468

415.48400.48348.723328.509

417.78402.78350.243329.491

419.96404.96351.719330.418

422.03407.03353.156331.297

424409354.56332.132

425.87410.87355.932332.925

427.66412.66357.278333.681

429.36414.36358.599334.401

430.96415.96359.874335.087

432.45417.45361.083335.741

433.82418.82362.233336.365

435.08420.08363.327336.961

436.24421.24364.368337.528

437.3422.3365.36338.07

438.27423.27366.305338.586

439.14424.14367.205339.077

439.93424.93368.065339.546

440.63425.63368.883339.992

441.25426.25369.663340.417

441.79426.79370.407340.821

442.25427.25371.114341.205

442.64427.64371.788341.57

442.94427.94372.43341.917

443.18428.18373.04342.246

443.35428.35373.62342.558

443.44428.44374.171342.853

443.47428.47374.693343.132

443.5428.5375.19343.397

443.54428.54375.66343.646

443.57428.57376.106343.882

443.59428.59376.527344.104

443.61428.61376.925344.312

443.62428.62377.301344.508

443.62428.62377.656344.692

443.61428.61377.99344.864

443.6428.6378.304345.025

443.57428.57378.599345.175

443.54428.54378.875345.314

443.49428.49379.135345.444

443.44428.44379.376345.563

443.38428.38379.601345.673

443.31428.31379.81345.774

443.24428.24380.004345.867

443.15428.15380.183345.951

443.06428.06380.348346.027

442.96427.96380.499346.095

442.86427.86380.638346.156

442.75427.75380.763346.209

442.63427.63380.875346.255

442.5427.5380.977346.295

442.37427.37381.068346.329

442.23427.23381.146346.356

442.09427.09381.215346.377

441.94426.94381.274346.393

441.79426.79381.322346.402

441.63426.63381.361346.407

441.46426.46381.392346.407

441.3426.3381.413346.401

441.12426.12381.426346.391

440.95425.95381.431346.376

440.77425.77381.429346.357

440.58425.58381.419346.334

440.39425.39381.402346.307

440.2425.2381.377346.275

440.01425.01381.347346.241

439.81424.81381.31346.202

439.61424.61381.267346.16

439.4424.4381.218346.115

439.2424.2381.163346.066

438.99423.99381.103346.015

438.77423.77381.037345.96

438.23423.23380.641345.903

437.72422.72380.273345.843

437.24422.24379.927345.781

436.77421.77379.597345.716

436.32421.32379.282345.649

435.88420.88378.976345.579

435.01420.01378.236345.063

434.2419.2377.549344.59

433.42418.42376.903344.15

432.69417.69376.292343.738

431.99416.99375.71343.348

431.31416.31375.153342.977

430.66415.66374.618342.622

430.02415.02374.101342.281

429.41414.41373.602341.952

428.81413.81373.118341.634

428.23413.23372.648341.326

427.66412.66372.191341.026

427.11412.11371.746340.735

426.57411.57371.313340.452

426.04411.04370.89340.175

425.52410.52370.477339.905

425.02410.02370.074339.642

424.52409.52369.68339.385

424.04409.04369.295339.133

423.57408.57368.919338.888

423.1408.1368.55338.647

422.64407.64368.19338.412

422.2407.2367.837338.182

421.76406.76367.491337.956

421.33406.33367.153337.735

420.9405.9366.82337.518

420.49405.49366.496337.306

420.08405.08366.177337.098

419.68404.68365.864336.894

419.29404.29365.558336.694

418.9403.9365.256336.497

418.52403.52364.962336.305

418.15403.15364.671336.115

417.78402.78364.386335.929

417.42402.42364.107335.747

417.07402.07363.832335.567

416.72401.72363.562335.391

416.37401.37363.297335.218

416.03401.03363.036335.048

415.7400.7362.779334.88

415.37400.37362.528334.716

415.05400.05362.28334.554

414.73399.73362.035334.394

414.42399.42361.795334.237

414.11399.11361.559334.083

413.8398.8361.326333.931

413.5398.5361.097333.781

413.21398.21360.871333.634

412.91397.91360.649333.489

412.63397.63360.43333.346

Oil

Gas

Coal

Biosphere

Alternative Case: Coal Phaseout(+2%/yr to 2012; +1%/yr to 2022; linear shutdown between 2025-2050)




oil CO2 ppm + 280


What, me worry?

Fig1 bar + unconv.

111.168015689

38.692010039

153.22910940

EIA

IPCC

CO2 (ppmv)

600

400

200

100

300

0

500

*Oil & gas from EIA


Other

MethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands

? **

Emissions (CDIAC)

IPCC coal

Proven reserves*

Reserve growth

Gt C


Fig1 bar + unconv. 2

111.168015689Oil

38.692010039Gas

153.2291094Coal0Coal

1200

EIA

IPCC

CO2 (ppmv)

600

400

200

100

300

0

500

*Oil & gas from EIA


Other

MethaneHydrates

Shale Oil

Tar Sands

? **

Emissions (CDIAC)

IPCC coal

Proven reserves*

Reserve growth

Unconv. reserves (IPCC)

Gt C


Fig stnd case (BAU)

298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103

298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178

298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483

299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024

299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758

299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181

299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335

299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268

300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226

300.309285.309280.159923280.13309

300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414

300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574

301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741

301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061

301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381

301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801

301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317

302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068

302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706

302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674

302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379

303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245

303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462

303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351

303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013

304.006289.006280.557382280.4782

304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163

304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123

304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778

305.088290.088280.77052280.66074

305.333290.333280.82689280.70785

305.523290.523280.8777280.75119

305.671290.671280.92403280.7907

305.846290.846280.97624280.83575

306.058291.058281.03246280.88352

306.293291.293281.0948280.93671

306.572291.572281.16477280.99591

306.881291.881281.24715281.066

307.149292.149281.32358281.1311

307.435292.435281.40184281.1979

307.766292.766281.48306281.2661

308.104293.104281.56525281.3357

308.437293.437281.6399281.3967

308.787293.787281.72351281.4647

309.126294.126281.82398281.5482

309.352294.352281.92343281.6289

309.615294.615282.02894281.7154

309.95294.95282.14836281.8136

310.313295.313282.2879281.9284

310.642295.642282.42364282.038

311.054296.054282.59141282.173

311.517296.517282.78783282.3295

311.977296.977282.99218282.4915

312.444297.444283.20553282.661

312.908297.908283.42575282.8358

313.443298.443283.67626283.0369

314.024299.024283.94823283.2561

314.628299.628284.23462283.4836

315.242300.242284.52541283.7111

315.898300.898284.84426283.9586

316.586301.586285.19058284.2264

317.26302.26285.5596284.511

317.964302.964285.9626284.8219

318.717303.717286.3963285.1561

319.521304.521286.8679285.5188

320.363305.363287.3722285.9074

321.253306.253287.9215286.3316

322.163307.163288.5124286.7878

323.126308.126289.1597287.2883

324.157309.157289.8604287.8282

325.283310.283290.6277288.4271

326.443311.443291.4351289.0541

327.641312.641292.2791289.7105

328.907313.907293.1935290.432

330.14315.14294.0818291.129

331.334316.334294.8908291.75

332.618317.618295.7795292.443

333.938318.938296.6823293.156

335.251320.251297.575293.85

336.677321.677298.5386294.6

338.036323.036299.424295.272

339.295324.295300.2326295.868

340.512325.512300.9813296.412

341.708326.708301.7162296.945

342.975327.975302.4844297.488

344.294329.294303.2463298.016

345.666330.666304.0489298.592

347.07332.07304.8735299.165

348.547333.547305.7543299.78

350.048335.048306.6563300.407

351.547336.547307.6001301.059

353.055338.055308.596301.749

354.475339.475309.5197302.369

355.867340.867310.4485302.994

357.297342.297311.3811303.624

358.786343.786312.3426304.276

360.314345.314313.3312304.932

361.877346.877314.3537305.631

363.406348.406315.3874306.334

364.831349.831316.3818306.997

366.309351.309317.4374307.704

367.848352.848318.479308.389

369.419354.419319.511309.063

371.102356.102320.566309.751

372.901357.901321.673310.477

374.728359.728322.799311.218

376.586361.586323.947311.975

378.476363.476325.117312.748

380.399365.399326.308313.537

382.358367.358327.523314.343

384.354369.354328.76315.164

386.387371.387330.02316.002

388.459373.459331.305316.858

390.571375.571332.613317.73

392.724377.724333.946318.619

394.918379.918335.305319.527

397.16382.16336.689320.452

399.44384.44338.1321.396

401.76386.76339.538322.359

404.13389.13341.004323.341

406.55391.55342.498324.343

409.01394.01344.02325.364

411.53396.53345.572326.406

414.09399.09347.153327.468

416.66401.66348.723328.509

419.2404.2350.243329.491

421.72406.72351.719330.418

424.22409.22353.156331.297

426.7411.7354.56332.132

429.18414.18355.932332.925

431.66416.66357.278333.681

434.13419.13358.599334.401

436.58421.58359.874335.087

438.98423.98361.083335.741

441.36426.36362.233336.365

443.7428.7363.327336.961

446.01431.01364.368337.528

448.3433.3365.36338.07

450.57435.57366.305338.586

452.82437.82367.205339.077

455.06440.06368.065339.546

457.28442.28368.883339.992

459.49444.49369.663340.417

461.7446.7370.407340.821

463.9448.9371.114341.205

466.09451.09371.788341.57

468.29453.29372.43341.917

470.48455.48373.04342.246

472.68457.68373.62342.558

474.88459.88374.171342.853

477.08462.08374.693343.132

479.29464.29375.19343.397

481.51466.51375.66343.646

483.74468.74376.106343.882

485.98470.98376.527344.104

488.24473.24376.925344.312

490.51475.51377.301344.508

492.8477.8377.656344.692

495.1480.1377.99344.864

497.43482.43378.304345.025

499.77484.77378.599345.175

502.14487.14378.875345.314

504.53489.53379.135345.444

506.95491.95379.376345.563

509.4494.4379.601345.673

511.87496.87379.81345.774

514.38499.38380.004345.867

516.91501.91380.183345.951

519.48504.48380.348346.027

522.08507.08380.499346.095

524.72509.72380.638346.156

527.4512.4380.763346.209

530.12515.12380.876346.256

532.87517.87380.977346.295

535.67520.67381.068346.329

538.51523.51381.146346.356

541.4526.4381.215346.377

544.33529.33381.274346.393

547.2532.2381.322346.402

549.89534.89381.361346.407

552.42537.42381.392346.407

554.82539.82381.413346.401

557.08542.08381.426346.391

559.23544.23381.431346.376

561.26546.26381.429346.357

563.19548.19381.419346.334

565.02550.02381.402346.307

566.75551.75381.377346.275

568.4553.4381.347346.241

569.96554.96381.31346.202

571.44556.44381.267346.16

572.84557.84381.218346.115

574.17559.17381.163346.066

575.42560.42381.103346.015

576.61561.61381.037345.96

577.4562.4380.641345.903

578.17563.17380.273345.843

578.89563.89379.927345.781

579.59564.59379.597345.716

580.24565.24379.282345.649

580.4565.4378.523345.126

580.57565.57377.819344.646

580.73565.73377.16344.201

580.89565.89376.537343.784

581.03566.03375.944343.39

581.16566.16375.377343.015

581.27566.27374.832342.656

581.36566.36374.307342.311

581.43566.43373.799341.979

581.48566.48373.307341.657

581.52566.52372.83341.346

581.53566.53372.365341.043

581.52566.52371.914340.749

581.49566.49371.474340.463

581.45566.45371.045340.184

581.38566.38370.626339.911

581.3566.3370.218339.646

581.2566.2369.818339.386

581.09566.09369.427339.132

580.96565.96369.046338.884

580.81565.81368.673338.642

580.65565.65368.307338.404

580.48565.48367.95338.172

580.29565.29367.6337.945

580.08565.08367.257337.722

579.87564.87366.921337.503

579.64564.64366.591337.289

579.41564.41366.27337.08

579.16564.16365.953336.874

578.9563.9365.642336.672

578.63563.63365.338336.474

578.35563.35365.039336.28

578.06563.06364.746336.089

577.76562.76364.458335.902

577.45562.45364.175335.718

577.13562.13363.897335.537

576.81561.81363.625335.36

576.48561.48363.356335.185

576.14561.14363.093335.014

575.8560.8362.833334.845

575.45560.45362.578334.679

575.09560.09362.328334.516

574.72559.72362.082334.356

574.35559.35361.839334.198

573.98558.98361.601334.043

573.6558.6361.366333.89

573.21558.21361.134333.739

572.82557.82360.907333.591

572.43557.43360.682333.445

572.03557.03360.461333.301

571.63556.63360.243333.159

Oil

Gas

Coal

Biosphere

Business-as-Usual(2% annual growth until 50% depletion, then 2% annual decline)




oil CO2 ppm + 280


Fig coal phaseout

298.5478283.5478280.075407280.062103

298.7087283.7087280.082885280.068178

298.8709283.8709280.090525280.074483

299.0527284.0527280.098348280.081024

299.2321284.2321280.107318280.088758

299.4254284.4254280.116417280.096181

299.6338284.6338280.125193280.10335

299.8714284.8714280.136072280.11268

300.0844285.0844280.147495280.1226

300.309285.309280.159923280.13309

300.5436285.5436280.173316280.14414

300.7793285.7793280.187161280.15574

301.0299286.0299280.201472280.16741

301.3045286.3045280.217208280.18061

301.5261286.5261280.232859280.19381

301.7385286.7385280.249914280.20801

301.9778286.9778280.268307280.22317

302.2389287.2389280.289405280.24068

302.4839287.4839280.308759280.25706

302.6624287.6624280.331339280.27674

302.9015287.9015280.361699280.30379

303.0746288.0746280.393098280.33245

303.2686288.2686280.42844280.36462

303.5206288.5206280.471853280.40351

303.7627288.7627280.513766280.44013

304.006289.006280.557382280.4782

304.2488289.2488280.601759280.5163

304.5242289.5242280.653661280.56123

304.7899289.7899280.70785280.60778

305.088290.088280.77052280.66074

305.333290.333280.82689280.70785

305.523290.523280.8777280.75119

305.671290.671280.92403280.7907

305.846290.846280.97624280.83575

306.058291.058281.03246280.88352

306.293291.293281.0948280.93671

306.572291.572281.16477280.99591

306.881291.881281.24715281.066

307.149292.149281.32358281.1311

307.435292.435281.40184281.1979

307.766292.766281.48306281.2661

308.104293.104281.56525281.3357

308.437293.437281.6399281.3967

308.787293.787281.72351281.4647

309.126294.126281.82398281.5482

309.352294.352281.92343281.6289

309.615294.615282.02894281.7154

309.95294.95282.14836281.8136

310.313295.313282.2879281.9284

310.642295.642282.42364282.038

311.054296.054282.59141282.173

311.517296.517282.78783282.3295

311.977296.977282.99218282.4915

312.444297.444283.20553282.661

312.908297.908283.42575282.8358

313.443298.443283.67626283.0369

314.024299.024283.94823283.2561

314.628299.628284.23462283.4836

315.242300.242284.52541283.7111

315.898300.898284.84426283.9586

316.586301.586285.19058284.2264

317.26302.26285.5596284.511

317.964302.964285.9626284.8219

318.717303.717286.3963285.1561

319.521304.521286.8679285.5188

320.363305.363287.3722285.9074

321.253306.253287.9215286.3316

322.163307.163288.5124286.7878

323.126308.126289.1597287.2883

324.157309.157289.8604287.8282

325.283310.283290.6277288.4271

326.443311.443291.4351289.0541

327.641312.641292.2791289.7105

328.907313.907293.1935290.432

330.14315.14294.0818291.129

331.334316.334294.8908291.75

332.618317.618295.7795292.443

333.938318.938296.6823293.156

335.251320.251297.575293.85

336.677321.677298.5386294.6

338.036323.036299.424295.272

339.295324.295300.2326295.868

340.512325.512300.9813296.412

341.708326.708301.7162296.945

342.975327.975302.4844297.488

344.294329.294303.2463298.016

345.666330.666304.0489298.592

347.07332.07304.8735299.165

348.547333.547305.7543299.78

350.048335.048306.6563300.407

351.547336.547307.6001301.059

353.055338.055308.596301.749

354.475339.475309.5197302.369

355.867340.867310.4485302.994

357.297342.297311.3811303.624

358.786343.786312.3426304.276

360.314345.314313.3312304.932

361.877346.877314.3537305.631

363.406348.406315.3874306.334

364.831349.831316.3818306.997

366.309351.309317.4374307.704

367.848352.848318.479308.389

369.419354.419319.511309.063

371.102356.102320.566309.751

372.901357.901321.673310.477

374.728359.728322.799311.218

376.586361.586323.947311.975

378.476363.476325.117312.748

380.399365.399326.308313.537

382.358367.358327.523314.343

384.354369.354328.76315.164

386.387371.387330.02316.002

388.459373.459331.305316.858

390.555375.555332.613317.73

392.677377.677333.946318.619

394.826379.826335.305319.527

397382336.689320.452

399.21384.21338.1321.396

401.45386.45339.538322.359

403.72388.72341.004323.341

406.02391.02342.498324.343

408.35393.35344.02325.364

410.72395.72345.572326.406

413.11398.11347.153327.468

415.48400.48348.723328.509

417.78402.78350.243329.491

419.96404.96351.719330.418

422.03407.03353.156331.297

424409354.56332.132

425.87410.87355.932332.925

427.66412.66357.278333.681

429.36414.36358.599334.401

430.96415.96359.874335.087

432.45417.45361.083335.741

433.82418.82362.233336.365

435.08420.08363.327336.961

436.24421.24364.368337.528

437.3422.3365.36338.07

438.27423.27366.305338.586

439.14424.14367.205339.077

439.93424.93368.065339.546

440.63425.63368.883339.992

441.25426.25369.663340.417

441.79426.79370.407340.821

442.25427.25371.114341.205

442.64427.64371.788341.57

442.94427.94372.43341.917

443.18428.18373.04342.246

443.35428.35373.62342.558

443.44428.44374.171342.853

443.47428.47374.693343.132

443.5428.5375.19343.397

443.54428.54375.66343.646

443.57428.57376.106343.882

443.59428.59376.527344.104

443.61428.61376.925344.312

443.62428.62377.301344.508

443.62428.62377.656344.692

443.61428.61377.99344.864

443.6428.6378.304345.025

443.57428.57378.599345.175

443.54428.54378.875345.314

443.49428.49379.135345.444

443.44428.44379.376345.563

443.38428.38379.601345.673

443.31428.31379.81345.774

443.24428.24380.004345.867

443.15428.15380.183345.951

443.06428.06380.348346.027

442.96427.96380.499346.095

442.86427.86380.638346.156

442.75427.75380.763346.209

442.63427.63380.875346.255

442.5427.5380.977346.295

442.37427.37381.068346.329

442.23427.23381.146346.356

442.09427.09381.215346.377

441.94426.94381.274346.393

441.79426.79381.322346.402

441.63426.63381.361346.407

441.46426.46381.392346.407

441.3426.3381.413346.401

441.12426.12381.426346.391

440.95425.95381.431346.376

440.77425.77381.429346.357

440.58425.58381.419346.334

440.39425.39381.402346.307

440.2425.2381.377346.275

440.01425.01381.347346.241

439.81424.81381.31346.202

439.61424.61381.267346.16

439.4424.4381.218346.115

439.2424.2381.163346.066

438.99423.99381.103346.015

438.77423.77381.037345.96

438.23423.23380.641345.903

437.72422.72380.273345.843

437.24422.24379.927345.781

436.77421.77379.597345.716

436.32421.32379.282345.649

435.88420.88378.976345.579

435.01420.01378.236345.063

434.2419.2377.549344.59

433.42418.42376.903344.15

432.69417.69376.292343.738

431.99416.99375.71343.348

431.31416.31375.153342.977

430.66415.66374.618342.622

430.02415.02374.101342.281

429.41414.41373.602341.952

428.81413.81373.118341.634

428.23413.23372.648341.326

427.66412.66372.191341.026

427.11412.11371.746340.735

426.57411.57371.313340.452

426.04411.04370.89340.175

425.52410.52370.477339.905

425.02410.02370.074339.642

424.52409.52369.68339.385

424.04409.04369.295339.133

423.57408.57368.919338.888

423.1408.1368.55338.647

422.64407.64368.19338.412

422.2407.2367.837338.182

421.76406.76367.491337.956

421.33406.33367.153337.735

420.9405.9366.82337.518

420.49405.49366.496337.306

420.08405.08366.177337.098

419.68404.68365.864336.894

419.29404.29365.558336.694

418.9403.9365.256336.497

418.52403.52364.962336.305

418.15403.15364.671336.115

417.78402.78364.386335.929

417.42402.42364.107335.747

417.07402.07363.832335.567

416.72401.72363.562335.391

416.37401.37363.297335.218

416.03401.03363.036335.048

415.7400.7362.779334.88

415.37400.37362.528334.716

415.05400.05362.28334.554

414.73399.73362.035334.394

414.42399.42361.795334.237

414.11399.11361.559334.083

413.8398.8361.326333.931

413.5398.5361.097333.781

413.21398.21360.871333.634

412.91397.91360.649333.489

412.63397.63360.43333.346

Oil

Gas

Coal

Biosphere

Alternative Case: Coal Phaseout(+2%/yr to 2012; +1%/yr to 2022; linear shutdown between 2025-2050)




oil CO2 ppm + 280


J. Hansen

Documents

Global Warming: we’re on thin ice!