Global Warming Teach-In: Global Warming Teach-In:

Human Impacts of Climate ChangeHuman Impacts of Climate Change

Doug OetterDoug OetterHeather Langston Heather Langston

Chuck FahrerChuck FahrerDoreen SamsDoreen SamsChris HobsonChris Hobson

Greenhouse WarmingGreenhouse WarmingNatural mechanism that retains outgoing heat, Natural mechanism that retains outgoing heat, keeping the Earth temperature more moderatekeeping the Earth temperature more moderate

Climate ChangeClimate Change

Long-term changes in Long-term changes in ‘typical’ climate patterns:‘typical’ climate patterns: Surface temperature and Surface temperature and

ocean temperature shifts ocean temperature shifts Changing precipitation Changing precipitation

patternspatterns Expansion and contraction of Expansion and contraction of

ice sheetsice sheets Sea-level variationsSea-level variations Vegetation migrations in Vegetation migrations in

response to climate shiftsresponse to climate shifts

Causes of Climate ChangeCauses of Climate Change

Atmospheric CO2 measured at Mauna Loa, Hawaii.

Source: NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostic Laboratory

CO2,CH4 and estimated global temperature (Antarctic ΔT/2 in ice core era)0 = 1880-1899 mean.

Source: Hansen, Clim. Change, 68, 269, 2005.

Fossil fuel CO2 emissions based on data of Marland and Boden (DOE, Oak Ridge) and British Petroleum.Source: Hansen and Sato, PNAS, 98, 14778, 2001.

Anthropogenic Sources of Anthropogenic Sources of Atmospheric ChangeAtmospheric Change

Radiative ForcingRadiative Forcing

Surface Surface TemperaturesTemperatures

Recent Temperature AnomaliesRecent Temperature Anomalies

Sea Level ChangeSea Level Change

Sea Level RiseSea Level Rise

The Problem with Global WarmingThe Problem with Global Warming

Variation in Predictive Models Variation in Predictive Models Most scientists agree that it is happeningMost scientists agree that it is happening But disagree on the extent and the outcomesBut disagree on the extent and the outcomes

Intergovernmental Panel Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Changeon Climate Change

Climate Change 2007: The Physical BasisClimate Change 2007: The Physical Basis

Why is There Inaction?Why is There Inaction?

Public remains skeptical, doubtful, and even critical, and Public remains skeptical, doubtful, and even critical, and has grown severely accustomed to the life of leisure has grown severely accustomed to the life of leisure driven by fossil fuelsdriven by fossil fuels

Political vision remains unclear, clouded by inconsistent Political vision remains unclear, clouded by inconsistent and opposing views, often fueled by extreme rhetoric and opposing views, often fueled by extreme rhetoric intended to divide the country into entrenched campsintended to divide the country into entrenched camps

There are significant political and economic opportunities There are significant political and economic opportunities on the line, and billions of dollars of investments, jobs, on the line, and billions of dollars of investments, jobs, and opportunities for developmentand opportunities for development

New technologies require development and adoption, New technologies require development and adoption, and there are many barriersand there are many barriers

Criticism of Global WarmingCriticism of Global Warming

““Science, Politics and Death” by Arthur B. Robinson & Jane M. Orient. Science, Politics and Death” by Arthur B. Robinson & Jane M. Orient. 2004. The New American 20(12).2004. The New American 20(12). “… “… influential people who understand very well the benefits of abundant influential people who understand very well the benefits of abundant

usable energy and seek to keep mankind from realizing those benefits not usable energy and seek to keep mankind from realizing those benefits not because they want to save the planet, but because they seek global control. because they want to save the planet, but because they seek global control. They have beguiled millions into believing that too many people and too They have beguiled millions into believing that too many people and too much technology will cause environmental devastation. much technology will cause environmental devastation.

““The latest scare asserts that the Earth is warming as a result of human use The latest scare asserts that the Earth is warming as a result of human use of coal, oil, and natural gas. This myth of "human-caused global warming" of coal, oil, and natural gas. This myth of "human-caused global warming" is promoted by billions of dollars worth of propaganda in the American is promoted by billions of dollars worth of propaganda in the American media today.media today.

““This same cast of characters, in fact, will be found promoting virtually any This same cast of characters, in fact, will be found promoting virtually any scheme that would reduce technological progress, thereby increasing scheme that would reduce technological progress, thereby increasing human misery and death. human misery and death.

Oregon PetitionOregon PetitionOregon Institute of Science and Medicine (1998-2001)Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine (1998-2001)

We urge the United States government to reject the global warming We urge the United States government to reject the global warming agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and agreement that was written in Kyoto, Japan in December, 1997, and any other similar proposals. any other similar proposals.

There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the dioxide, methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the Earth's atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate.atmosphere and disruption of the Earth's climate.

Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the atmospheric carbon dioxide produce many beneficial effects upon the natural plant and animal environments of the Earth. natural plant and animal environments of the Earth. http://www.oism.org/pproject/http://www.oism.org/pproject/

Other views:Other views: Wikipedia.orgWikipedia.org Sourcewatch.orgSourcewatch.org

Criticism Gets in the MediaCriticism Gets in the Media "Global warming alarmism is not justified by science," said James Taylor, "Global warming alarmism is not justified by science," said James Taylor,

senior fellow for environment policy at the conservative Heartland Institute, senior fellow for environment policy at the conservative Heartland Institute, a Chicago-based nonprofit organization that promotes free-market solutions a Chicago-based nonprofit organization that promotes free-market solutions to social and economic problems.to social and economic problems.

Taylor cited a recent National Registry of Environmental Professionals Taylor cited a recent National Registry of Environmental Professionals survey that found 41 percent of those surveyed disagree that planet's survey that found 41 percent of those surveyed disagree that planet's recent warmth can be largely attributed to human activity.recent warmth can be largely attributed to human activity.

He also cited the Oregon Petition, which maintains that no scientific He also cited the Oregon Petition, which maintains that no scientific consensus exists about the cause of global warming. It was signed by consensus exists about the cause of global warming. It was signed by 20,000 scientists, he said.20,000 scientists, he said.

"Essentially, Al Gore is cherry-picking data and misrepresenting facts" and "Essentially, Al Gore is cherry-picking data and misrepresenting facts" and duping volunteers … into "spreading more harm than good," Taylor said. duping volunteers … into "spreading more harm than good," Taylor said. The Roanoke Times, 25 Jan 07The Roanoke Times, 25 Jan 07

Criticism in the SenateCriticism in the SenateSenator James M. InhofeSenator James M. Inhofe Environment News (October 1, 2003) Environment News (October 1, 2003) The Heartland InstituteThe Heartland Institute

““Global warming alarmists see a future plagued by catastrophic flooding, war, Global warming alarmists see a future plagued by catastrophic flooding, war, terrorism, economic dislocations, droughts, crop failures, mosquito-borne terrorism, economic dislocations, droughts, crop failures, mosquito-borne diseases, and harsh weather--all caused by man-made greenhouse gas diseases, and harsh weather--all caused by man-made greenhouse gas emissions.emissions.

““Without proper knowledge and understanding, alarmists will scare the country Without proper knowledge and understanding, alarmists will scare the country into enacting their ultimate goal: making energy suppression, in the form of into enacting their ultimate goal: making energy suppression, in the form of harmful mandatory restrictions on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse harmful mandatory restrictions on carbon dioxide and other greenhouse emissions, the official policy of the United States.emissions, the official policy of the United States.

““Such a policy would induce serious economic harm, especially for low-income Such a policy would induce serious economic harm, especially for low-income and minority populations. Energy suppression … means higher prices for food, and minority populations. Energy suppression … means higher prices for food, medical care, and electricity, as well as massive job losses and drastic reductions medical care, and electricity, as well as massive job losses and drastic reductions in gross domestic product, all the while providing virtually no environmental in gross domestic product, all the while providing virtually no environmental benefit. benefit.

Global Political WarmingGlobal Political Warming

Pro-BusinessPro-Business Competitive Enterprise InstituteCompetitive Enterprise Institute George C. Marshall InstituteGeorge C. Marshall Institute Heartland InstituteHeartland Institute Heritage FoundationHeritage Foundation

The economic burdens of Kyoto, especially on already-stagnant The economic burdens of Kyoto, especially on already-stagnant economies, have proven unacceptable.economies, have proven unacceptable.

Estimates of the cost for U.S. compliance ranged from $100 to $400 Estimates of the cost for U.S. compliance ranged from $100 to $400 billion dollars annually--enough to have a serious impact on billion dollars annually--enough to have a serious impact on employment and economic growth. employment and economic growth.

And even assuming the IPCC is right, the Kyoto Protocol would only And even assuming the IPCC is right, the Kyoto Protocol would only avert 0.07 degrees Celsius of warming by 2050, an amount too small avert 0.07 degrees Celsius of warming by 2050, an amount too small too measure.too measure.

The economic damage of energy rationing to developing nations The economic damage of energy rationing to developing nations would be severe, strangling growth and imposing hardships on would be severe, strangling growth and imposing hardships on billions who are already barely subsisting. billions who are already barely subsisting.

Global Political WarmingGlobal Political Warming

Pro-EnvironmentPro-Environment Campus Climate ChallengeCampus Climate Challenge Environmental DefenseEnvironmental Defense Natural Resources Defense CouncilNatural Resources Defense Council Stop Global Warming.orgStop Global Warming.org

Global Political WarmingGlobal Political Warming

Union of Concerned ScientistsUnion of Concerned Scientists ExxonMobil company, like the tobacco industry in previous ExxonMobil company, like the tobacco industry in previous

decades, has:decades, has: Raised doubts about even the most indisputable scientific evidenceRaised doubts about even the most indisputable scientific evidence Funded an array of front organizations to create the appearance of Funded an array of front organizations to create the appearance of

a broad platform for a tight-knit group of vocal climate change a broad platform for a tight-knit group of vocal climate change contrarians who misrepresent peer-reviewed scientific findingscontrarians who misrepresent peer-reviewed scientific findings

Attempted to portray its opposition to action as a positive quest for Attempted to portray its opposition to action as a positive quest for "sound science" rather than business self-interest"sound science" rather than business self-interest

Used its access to the Bush administration to block federal policies Used its access to the Bush administration to block federal policies and shape government communications on global warmingand shape government communications on global warming

Smoke, Mirrors & Hot AirSmoke, Mirrors & Hot Air: How ExxonMobil Uses Big Tobacco's : How ExxonMobil Uses Big Tobacco's Tactics to "Manufacture Uncertainty" on Climate ChangeTactics to "Manufacture Uncertainty" on Climate Change

The Costs and Benefits of Addressing The Costs and Benefits of Addressing Climate ChangeClimate Change

Costs of Implementing ChangesCosts of Implementing Changes Retrofitting energy production, delivery, and Retrofitting energy production, delivery, and

consumption technologiesconsumption technologies Developing and engaging new technologiesDeveloping and engaging new technologies

Consumer costs vs. Loss of market shareConsumer costs vs. Loss of market share

Proposals to spend billions of dollars to reduce Proposals to spend billions of dollars to reduce or remove COor remove CO22 from the atmosphere from the atmosphere

And some worry that it may not make a And some worry that it may not make a difference anyway!!difference anyway!!

The Costs of KyotoThe Costs of Kyoto

Wharton Econometric Forecasting AssociatesWharton Econometric Forecasting Associates Kyoto would cost 2.4 million U.S. jobs and reduce GDP by 3.2 percent, about Kyoto would cost 2.4 million U.S. jobs and reduce GDP by 3.2 percent, about

$300 billion annually$300 billion annually American consumers would face higher food, medical, and housing costsAmerican consumers would face higher food, medical, and housing costs

Food, an increase of 11 percentFood, an increase of 11 percent Medicine, an increase of 14 percentMedicine, an increase of 14 percent Housing, an increase of 7 percentHousing, an increase of 7 percent

Energy and electricity prices would nearly doubleEnergy and electricity prices would nearly double Gasoline prices would go up an additional 65 cents per gallonGasoline prices would go up an additional 65 cents per gallon Kyoto will cost 511,000 jobs held by Hispanic workers and 864,000 jobs Kyoto will cost 511,000 jobs held by Hispanic workers and 864,000 jobs

held by Black workersheld by Black workers Poverty rates for minority families will increase dramaticallyPoverty rates for minority families will increase dramatically Because Kyoto will bring about higher energy prices, many minority Because Kyoto will bring about higher energy prices, many minority

businesses will be lost.businesses will be lost.

A Different ViewA Different View James P. Barrett, James P. Barrett, Economic Policy InstituteEconomic Policy Institute WEFA model was based on three faulty assumptions:WEFA model was based on three faulty assumptions:

Assumes a renewable energy development response rate 27% lower than actualAssumes a renewable energy development response rate 27% lower than actual ““Delivered energy efficiency" would have to respond 43% slower than it did Delivered energy efficiency" would have to respond 43% slower than it did

between 1973 and 1985between 1973 and 1985 Assumes virtually no sensible policies will be used to implement the ProtocolAssumes virtually no sensible policies will be used to implement the Protocol

Conservative but more reasonable estimates can reduce the projected loss Conservative but more reasonable estimates can reduce the projected loss of GDP to almost zero for the target year of 2010of GDP to almost zero for the target year of 2010

““Americans stand to gain much from enhanced energy efficiency and Americans stand to gain much from enhanced energy efficiency and increased supply of non-polluting, renewable energy sources. Such increased supply of non-polluting, renewable energy sources. Such developments will developments will cut global warming pollutioncut global warming pollution reduce dependency on imported oil and improve our balance of tradereduce dependency on imported oil and improve our balance of trade and will likely create little negative - or perhaps even a positive - impact on the and will likely create little negative - or perhaps even a positive - impact on the

economy.”economy.”

Market Strategies for Dealing with Market Strategies for Dealing with Greenhouse GassesGreenhouse Gasses

Create a market for ‘trading’ carbon offset from Create a market for ‘trading’ carbon offset from emission, and for capturing and sequestering carbon in emission, and for capturing and sequestering carbon in sinkssinks International Emissions Trading AssociationInternational Emissions Trading Association CO2e- Global Hub for Carbon CommerceCO2e- Global Hub for Carbon Commerce

Create opportunities to profit from removing or reducing Create opportunities to profit from removing or reducing carbon releasecarbon release National Energy Technology LaboratoryNational Energy Technology Laboratory Geologic & ocean storageGeologic & ocean storage ForestationForestation MineralizationMineralization Ocean FertilizationOcean Fertilization Stable SolidsStable Solids Useful ProductsUseful Products

Summary so far…Summary so far…

Global Warming may not be happeningGlobal Warming may not be happening

And if it is, it would be too expensive to do And if it is, it would be too expensive to do anything about, and it might not work anywayanything about, and it might not work anyway

And if we did want to do enough to take care of And if we did want to do enough to take care of the problem, there are lots of market-driven the problem, there are lots of market-driven solutions…solutions…

Costs of InactionCosts of Inaction

Storm Damage to Life and PropertyStorm Damage to Life and Property Heat WavesHeat Waves Coastal Protection/RelocationCoastal Protection/Relocation Loss of Natural Services Loss of Natural Services Human Health Human Health Agricultural ImpactsAgricultural Impacts RefugeesRefugees Markets and Economies Markets and Economies

Storm and Weather ImpactsStorm and Weather Impacts Greater variability in temperature and Greater variability in temperature and

precipitationprecipitation Wetter and drier responsesWetter and drier responses More extreme eventsMore extreme events

Hotter overall weatherHotter overall weather 2001-2005: 5 of 6 hottest years on record2001-2005: 5 of 6 hottest years on record Hottest years: 1998 and 2005Hottest years: 1998 and 2005

Natural HazardsNatural Hazards Insured disaster losses in 2004 totaled $44 billionInsured disaster losses in 2004 totaled $44 billion Overall disaster losses were $114.5 billionOverall disaster losses were $114.5 billion

$40 billion in 1980 $40 billion in 1980 $10.5 billion in 1951$10.5 billion in 1951

Heat WavesHeat Waves

Increase in heat-related deaths particularly among older Increase in heat-related deaths particularly among older adults and urban pooradults and urban poor

Increased heat stress in livestock and wildlifeIncreased heat stress in livestock and wildlife Shifts in tourismShifts in tourism Increased risk of damage to some cropsIncreased risk of damage to some crops Increased cooling demandIncreased cooling demand Decreased risk of damage to some crops and increased Decreased risk of damage to some crops and increased

risk to othersrisk to others Increased range of some pests and diseasesIncreased range of some pests and diseases

Decrease in cold-related deathsDecrease in cold-related deaths Reduced heating demandReduced heating demand

Moregreenhouse

gases

Increasedtemperatures

More use of airconditioning

Moreenergy

use

Air Conditioning LoopAir Conditioning Loop

2005 Hurricanes2005 Hurricanes 2,280 deaths2,280 deaths >$120 billion damages>$120 billion damages First storm June 8First storm June 8 Last storm Jan 6 (record, by far)Last storm Jan 6 (record, by far) 28 storms (record, by far)28 storms (record, by far) 15 Hurricanes (record, by far)15 Hurricanes (record, by far) 7 Major (3+) hurricanes7 Major (3+) hurricanes Lowest barometric pressure ever Lowest barometric pressure ever

recorded (Wilma)recorded (Wilma) 3 of 6 lowest-pressures ever recorded3 of 6 lowest-pressures ever recorded

Katrina, Rita, WilmaKatrina, Rita, Wilma 4 category 5 storms4 category 5 storms

double double previous recordprevious record

Avg.Avg. OldOldRecordRecord

20052005

StormsStorms 1010 2121 2828

HurricanesHurricanes 66 1212 1515

Cat. 3+Cat. 3+ 22 88 77

Cat. 5+Cat. 5+ .3.3 2 (tie)2 (tie) 44

Coastal Protection and RelocationCoastal Protection and Relocation

Loss of Natural ServicesLoss of Natural Services

Actual Costs Could be GreaterActual Costs Could be Greater

Cumulative EffectsCumulative Effects Feedback LoopsFeedback Loops Time LagsTime Lags

Population IncreasePopulation Increase Loss of Natural ServicesLoss of Natural Services Long-term Damage to Long-term Damage to

Ecological SystemsEcological Systems

Moregreenhouse

gases

Increasedtemperatures

Meltingpermafrost

Methane loopMethane loop

Stern ReviewStern ReviewSir Nicholas Stern, Former Chief Economist for World Bank (Sir Nicholas Stern, Former Chief Economist for World Bank (BBC NewsBBC News))

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT Melting glaciers will increase flood riskMelting glaciers will increase flood risk Crop yields will decline, particularly in AfricaCrop yields will decline, particularly in Africa Rising sea levels could leave 200 million people permanently displacedRising sea levels could leave 200 million people permanently displaced Up to 40% of species could face extinctionUp to 40% of species could face extinction There will be more examples of extreme weather patternsThere will be more examples of extreme weather patterns

ECONOMIC IMPACTECONOMIC IMPACT Extreme weather could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 1%Extreme weather could reduce global gross domestic product (GDP) by up to 1% A two to three degrees Celsius rise in temperatures could reduce global economic output by 3%A two to three degrees Celsius rise in temperatures could reduce global economic output by 3% If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up to 10% of global output could be lost. If temperatures rise by five degrees Celsius, up to 10% of global output could be lost. In the worst case scenario global consumption per head would fall 20%In the worst case scenario global consumption per head would fall 20% To stabilise at manageable levels, emissions would need to stabilise in the next 20 years and fall between To stabilise at manageable levels, emissions would need to stabilise in the next 20 years and fall between

1% and 3% after that. This would cost 1% of GDP1% and 3% after that. This would cost 1% of GDP

OPTIONS FOR CHANGEOPTIONS FOR CHANGE Reduce consumer demand for heavily polluting goods and servicesReduce consumer demand for heavily polluting goods and services Make global energy supply more efficientMake global energy supply more efficient Act on non-energy emissions - preventing further deforestationAct on non-energy emissions - preventing further deforestation Promote cleaner energy and transport technologyPromote cleaner energy and transport technology

Benefits of ActionBenefits of Action

Energy savingsEnergy savings Cleaner airCleaner air Reduced dependence on foreign oilReduced dependence on foreign oil Jobs, jobs, jobsJobs, jobs, jobs

More Benefits of ActionMore Benefits of Action

Reduced reliance on expensive energyReduced reliance on expensive energy U. S. consumed 3,883 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2005U. S. consumed 3,883 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2005

$349 billion at residential rate (9$349 billion at residential rate (9¢/kwh)¢/kwh) $194 billion at industrial rate (5$194 billion at industrial rate (5¢/kwh)¢/kwh)

U. S. consumed 7627 million barrels of petroleum in 2005U. S. consumed 7627 million barrels of petroleum in 2005 $381 billion at $50/bbl$381 billion at $50/bbl

United States annual savings (at $50/barrel, today’s dollars) in 2030 for alternative automotive efficiency improvements.

Source: On the Road to Climate Stability, Hansen, J., D. Cain and R. Schmunk., to be submitted.

ProgressProgress

UK has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 14% since UK has reduced greenhouse gas emissions by 14% since 1990 1990 and and grown its economy by 40%grown its economy by 40%

Germany has reduced GHG 19% since 1990 – while Germany has reduced GHG 19% since 1990 – while creating 450,000 new jobs in the alternative energy creating 450,000 new jobs in the alternative energy sectorsector

California has already saved consumers more than $50B California has already saved consumers more than $50B in energy expenditures; expects to save another $57B by in energy expenditures; expects to save another $57B by 20112011

Salt Lake City reached 2012 Kyoto target (7% GHG Salt Lake City reached 2012 Kyoto target (7% GHG reduction) years in advance – and saved city and reduction) years in advance – and saved city and consumers hundreds of millions in processconsumers hundreds of millions in process Rockefeller Brothers Fund 2005 Annual ReportRockefeller Brothers Fund 2005 Annual Report