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Global Warming and EnergyGlobal Warming and EnergyConservationConservation
Kyoto Protocol:Kyoto Protocol:
Stimulus for New TechnologiesStimulus for New Technologies
Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions
10/28/02-cc7
Carbon Dioxide Carbon Dioxide ConcentrationsConcentrations
The Smoking GunThe Smoking Gun
Surface Air Temperature Surface Air Temperature AnomalyAnomalyGlobal MeanGlobal Mean
The AtmosphereThe Atmosphere
CCS-2
The 1990s were warmer than at The 1990s were warmer than at anytime during the last 1000 yearsanytime during the last 1000 years
CCS-3
Human activities have changed the Human activities have changed the composition of the atmosphere since composition of the atmosphere since
the industrial erathe industrial era
CCS-4
Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions Projected surface temperatures for the 21st century Projected surface temperatures for the 21st century
would be unheralded in the last 1000 yearswould be unheralded in the last 1000 years
CCS-5
COCO2 2 EmissionsEmissions
10/28/02-cc5
COCO2 2 EmissionsEmissions
10/28/02-cc6
Land areas warm more than the oceans with the greatest Land areas warm more than the oceans with the greatest warming at high latitudeswarming at high latitudes
Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions
10/28/02-cc9
Some areas are projected to become wetter, others Some areas are projected to become wetter, others drierdrier
Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions
10/28/02-cc10
Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions Crop yields are projected to Crop yields are projected to
decrease throughout the decrease throughout the tropics and sub-tropics, but tropics and sub-tropics, but increase at high latitudesincrease at high latitudes
Percentage change in average crop Percentage change in average crop yields for the climate change yields for the climate change scenario. Effects of COscenario. Effects of CO22 are taken are taken
into account. Crops modeled are:into account. Crops modeled are: wheat, maize and rice.wheat, maize and rice.
Jackson Institute, University College London / Goddard Institute for Space Studies / International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
10/28/02-cc11
Surface ConditionsSurface Conditions Run-off is projected to increase in some areas but Run-off is projected to increase in some areas but
decrease in others, especially in the sub-tropicsdecrease in others, especially in the sub-tropics
10/28/02-cc12
N.A
GL
EU
C.A
CCS-13
WHAT DO MODELS SAYWHAT DO MODELS SAYABOUT HUMAN-CAUSEDABOUT HUMAN-CAUSED
GLOBAL WARMINGGLOBAL WARMING
A Doubling of COA Doubling of CO22 Will Produce Will Produce a Warming Between 1.5 - 4.5 a Warming Between 1.5 - 4.5 Degrees C (2.7 - 8.1 degrees F)Degrees C (2.7 - 8.1 degrees F)
The Observed Global Warming is The Observed Global Warming is Generally Consistent With Model Generally Consistent With Model CalculationsCalculations
The CO2/Climate DilemmaThe CO2/Climate DilemmaOver the Next Century:Over the Next Century:
Exceeding 2 x COExceeding 2 x CO2 2 is Almost is Almost GuaranteedGuaranteed
Significant Climate Change is Significant Climate Change is InevitableInevitable
Energy Demand Growth is Very Energy Demand Growth is Very LargeLarge
Current “Non COCurrent “Non CO22” Energy is ” Energy is InsufficientInsufficient
..
..
..
ALL POTENTIAL IMPACTSREMAIN POORLY QUANTIFIED
ALL POTENTIAL IMPACTSREMAIN POORLY QUANTIFIED
Potential Impacts of Potential Impacts of Climate ChangeClimate Change
Agricultural ProductivityAgricultural Productivity Forest ResourcesForest Resources Increased Wet-Area FloodingIncreased Wet-Area Flooding Increased Dry-Area DroughtsIncreased Dry-Area Droughts Water ResourcesWater Resources Unmanaged EcosystemsUnmanaged Ecosystems
Relative Contribution of Relative Contribution of Greenhouse Gases in U.S.Greenhouse Gases in U.S.
81%
11%3% 2% 3%
CO2
CH4
N20
HFCs, PFCsand SF6Others
Climate ForcingClimate Forcing(Since year 1765)(Since year 1765)
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
YearYear
1990 2010 2030 20501990 2010 2030 2050
United Nations Environmental ProgramUNEP / EPA (1994) Scenario for HFCsIPCC (IS92a) Scenario for all other gases
United Nations Environmental ProgramUNEP / EPA (1994) Scenario for HFCsIPCC (IS92a) Scenario for all other gases
Carbon Dioxide
Nitrous OxideNitrous Oxide
MethaneMethane
CFCs & HCFCs HFCsHFCs
Global Warming Potential (GWP)
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A
HFC-407C
HFC-245fa
GW
P (
CO
2=
1.0
)
Climate Change Science
CCS-9
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Sets Greenhouse GasSets Greenhouse Gas
Emissions LimitsEmissions Limits
Signed December 1997Signed December 1997
Agreement reached by 181 Agreement reached by 181 CountriesCountries
Annex I and Non-Annex I Fossil Fuel Carbon Annex I and Non-Annex I Fossil Fuel Carbon Emissions:Emissions:
20.020.0
18.018.0
16.016.0
14.014.0
12.012.0
10.010.0
8.08.0
6.06.0
4.04.0
2.02.0
001990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
BAUBAU
Annex I Emissions = Non-Annex I Emissions in 2035
Annex I Emissions = Non-Annex I Emissions in 2035
PgC
/yr
PgC
/yr
Non-Annex I(Developing Countries)
Annex I(Developed Countries)
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Controls EMISSIONS (no phase out) of Controls EMISSIONS (no phase out) of greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases
COCO22, N, N22O, CHO, CH44, HFCs-PFCs-SF, HFCs-PFCs-SF66
No Developing Country controls No Developing Country controls requiredrequired
Basket of gases – each country/region Basket of gases – each country/region determine own responsedetermine own response
CCI-2
Global Climate Change - Global Climate Change - Berlin MandateBerlin Mandate
Science AssessmentScience Assessment– ““discernible human influence on global climate”discernible human influence on global climate”– Increase of 2Increase of 2ooC from 1990 - 2100C from 1990 - 2100– Sea Level rise by 50 cm 1990 - 2100Sea Level rise by 50 cm 1990 - 2100– Stabilization at 2x pre-industrial levels requires Stabilization at 2x pre-industrial levels requires
50% reduction50% reduction Technical and Economic AssessmentTechnical and Economic Assessment
– Reductions are technically possibleReductions are technically possible– Reductions are economically feasibleReductions are economically feasible– ““No-Regrets” opportunities are availableNo-Regrets” opportunities are available
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto ProtocolGreenhouse Gas CoverageGreenhouse Gas Coverage
Six (6) GasesSix (6) Gases– Carbon Dioxide -- COCarbon Dioxide -- CO22
– Methane -- CHMethane -- CH44
– Nitrous Oxide -- NNitrous Oxide -- N22OO– Hydrofluorocarbons -- HFCsHydrofluorocarbons -- HFCs– Perfluorocarbons -- PFCsPerfluorocarbons -- PFCs– Sulfur hexafluoride -- SFSulfur hexafluoride -- SF66
Base PeriodBase Period– 1990 for CO1990 for CO22 , CH , CH44 , and N , and N22OO
– 1990 or 1995 for HFCs, PFCs, and SF1990 or 1995 for HFCs, PFCs, and SF66
Kyoto Protocol --Kyoto Protocol --Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries
Targets & TimetablesTargets & Timetables– 34 Countries34 Countries– Differentiated TargetsDifferentiated Targets– 5.2 Percent Avg. reduction (versus 5.2 Percent Avg. reduction (versus
1990)1990)– 6 Greenhouse gases6 Greenhouse gases– Commitment period 2008 - 2012Commitment period 2008 - 2012
Kyoto Protocol --Kyoto Protocol --Country TargetsCountry Targets
CountryCountry % of base% of baseAustraliaAustralia 108x 108x
AustriaAustria 92 92
BelgiumBelgium 92 92
BulgariaBulgaria 92 92
CanadaCanada 94 94
CroatiaCroatia 92x 92x
Czech RepublicCzech Republic 92 92
DenmarkDenmark 92 92
EstoniaEstonia 92 92
European CommunityEuropean Community 92 92
FinlandFinland 92 92
FranceFrance 92 92
GermanyGermany 92 92
GreeceGreece 92 92
HungaryHungary 94 94
IcelandIceland 110 110
CountryCountry % of base% of baseItalyItaly 92 92
JapanJapan 94 94
LithuaniaLithuania 92 92
NetherlandsNetherlands 92 92
New ZealandNew Zealand 100 100
NorwayNorway 101 101
Poland Poland 94 94
PortugalPortugal 92 92
RomaniaRomania 92 92
Russian FederationRussian Federation 100 100
SpainSpain 92 92
SwedenSweden 92 92
SwitzerlandSwitzerland 92 92
UkraineUkraine 100 100
United KingdomUnited Kingdom 92 92
United StatesUnited States 93)x 93)x
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto ProtocolPolicies and MeasuresPolicies and Measures
Enhancement of energy efficiencyEnhancement of energy efficiency Increase use of new and renewable Increase use of new and renewable
forms of energyforms of energy Phase out market imperfectionsPhase out market imperfections Limit or reduce emissions of Limit or reduce emissions of
greenhouse gasesgreenhouse gases
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto ProtocolClean Development MechanismsClean Development Mechanisms
Emission reduction credits for Emission reduction credits for projects between projects between allall parties parties
Sharing TechnologiesSharing Technologies Exporting TechnologiesExporting Technologies
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol
Emissions TradingEmissions Trading
Developed CountriesDeveloped Countries Details at COP - 10Details at COP - 10
Kyoto ProtocolKyoto Protocol RatificationRatification
– February 16, 2005February 16, 2005– 55 countries ratify (112 ratified)55 countries ratify (112 ratified)– 55% of Developed Country Emissions 55% of Developed Country Emissions
Second Commitment PeriodSecond Commitment Period
DENMARKDENMARKHFC PHASEOUT LAWHFC PHASEOUT LAW
GENERAL HFC BAN - 2006GENERAL HFC BAN - 2006 COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR
CONDITIONING PLANTS HFC BAN FOR CONDITIONING PLANTS HFC BAN FOR SYSTEMS WITH 10kg OR HIGHER - SYSTEMS WITH 10kg OR HIGHER - 20072007
EXEMPT FROM BANEXEMPT FROM BAN– COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR COOLING PLANTS, HEAT PUMPS & AIR
CONDITIONING PLANTS WITH 0.15 - 10kg.CONDITIONING PLANTS WITH 0.15 - 10kg.– COOLING SYSTEMS FOR PROCESS HEAT COOLING SYSTEMS FOR PROCESS HEAT
RECOVERY WITH CHARGE LESS THAN 50kg.RECOVERY WITH CHARGE LESS THAN 50kg.
AUSTRIA AUSTRIA HFC PHASEOUT LAWHFC PHASEOUT LAW
APPLIANCE HFC BAN - 2008APPLIANCE HFC BAN - 2008 AIR CONDITIONING AND MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING AND MOBILE
REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 2008REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 2008
SWITZERLANDSWITZERLANDHFC PHASEOUT LAWHFC PHASEOUT LAW
DOMESTIC REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - DOMESTIC REFRIGERATION HFC BAN - 20032003
AIR CONDITIONERS HFC BAN - 2005AIR CONDITIONERS HFC BAN - 2005 MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING HFC BAN - MOBILE AIR CONDITIONING HFC BAN -
20082008
EUROPEAN UNIONEUROPEAN UNIONDRAFT HFC REGULATIONDRAFT HFC REGULATION CONTAINMENT OF HFCsCONTAINMENT OF HFCs
– PREVENT AND MINIMIZE LEAKAGEPREVENT AND MINIMIZE LEAKAGE– MANDATORY INSPECTIONSMANDATORY INSPECTIONS– LEAKAGE DETECTION SYSTEMSLEAKAGE DETECTION SYSTEMS– MAINTENANCE OF RECORDSMAINTENANCE OF RECORDS
RECOVERY OF HFCsRECOVERY OF HFCs TRAINING AND CERTIFICATIONTRAINING AND CERTIFICATION AUTOMOBILE HFC-134a BANAUTOMOBILE HFC-134a BAN
– No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in No new vehicles with HFCs - GWP greater than 150 in 20122012
– Prohibit sale of vehicles with HFCs greater than 150 in Prohibit sale of vehicles with HFCs greater than 150 in 20182018
ODP versus GWPODP versus GWPCFC-11
12113114115
HCFC-22123124
141b142b
HFC-32125
134a143a152a
227ea236fa245fa
ODP (relative to R-11) GWP (relative to CO2)
0.00.00.20.40.60.81.0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000
J. M. Calm and G. C. Hourahan, “Refrigerant Data Summary,” Engineered Systems, 18(11):74-88, November 2001 (based on 1998 WMO and 2001 IPCC assessments) © JMC 2001
Arthur D. LittleGlobal Comparative Analysis
of HFC Technologies forRefrigeration, AirConditioning, Foam,Solvent, AerosolPropellant, and FireProtection Applications
This report was prepared by Arthur D. Little, Inc. for theaccount of the Alliance for Responsible AtmosphericPolicy. The material in it reflects Arthur D. Little’sbest judgment in light of information available to it atthe time of preparation. Any use which a third partymakes of this report, or any reliance on or decisionsto be based on it, are the responsibility of such thirdparties. Arthur D. Little accepts no responsibility fordamages, if any, suffered by any third party as a resultof decision s made or actions taken based on thisreport
Final Report to the Alliance for ResponsibleAtmospheric Policy
March 21, 2002
Prepared by:John DieckmannArthur D. Little, Inc.
Total Equivalent Warming Impacts Total Equivalent Warming Impacts (TEWI)(TEWI)
300 Ton Chillers And Cooling Towers At Two Cost 300 Ton Chillers And Cooling Towers At Two Cost LevelsLevels
00
5050
100100
150150
Direct - RefrigerantDirect - RefrigerantIndirect - ElectricIndirect - Electric
R-11R-11 R-123R-123 R-22R-22R-12R-12 R-134aR-134a
Com
para
tive W
arm
ing
(%
)C
om
para
tive W
arm
ing
(%
)
©JMC - Dec 92©JMC - Dec 92
Chiller Efficiency ProgressChiller Efficiency Progress Efficiency - kW/ton Efficiency - kW/ton
YearYear AverageAverage GoodGood19791979 .80.80 .72.72
19801980 .72.72 .68.68
19901990 .65.65 .62.62
19931993 .63.63 .55.55
19951995 .61.61 .52.52
19971997 .60.60 .49.49
19991999 .59.59 .48.48
20032003 .56 .45 .56 .45
* * 1979 - 2003 . . . Over 35% improvement.1979 - 2003 . . . Over 35% improvement.
Ozone Depletion Potential and Global Ozone Depletion Potential and Global Warming Potential of CFC AlternativesWarming Potential of CFC Alternatives
22142b
143a125134a32152a
123
141b
0.00
0.02
0.04
0.06
0.08
0.10
0.12
0.14
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
GWP (100 year)
OD
P
Refrigerant Options
R-170 (Eth)
R-600 (But)R-717 (NH3)
R-32R-290(PropR-600a(Isobut)
R-11
R-123
R-125
R-134a
R-12R-22
R-744(CO2)
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
5
5.5
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200Condensing Pressure - PSIA
COP
FlammableNon-FlammableTE = 5FTC = 86F
Refrigerants Tested in AREPRefrigerants Tested in AREPR-22 AlternativesR-22 Alternatives
R-134aR-134a
R-290 (propane)R-290 (propane)
R-717 (ammonia)R-717 (ammonia)
R-410aR-410a (R-32/125 [50/50]) (R-32/125 [50/50])
R-32/134a [20/80]R-32/134a [20/80]
R-32/134a [25/75]R-32/134a [25/75]
R-32/134a [30/70]R-32/134a [30/70]
R-32/134a [40/60]R-32/134a [40/60]
R-32/134a [45/55]R-32/134a [45/55]
R-32/125/134a [10/70/20]R-32/125/134a [10/70/20]
R-407cR-407c ( (R-32/125/134aR-32/125/134a [[23/25/5223/25/52])])
R-32/125/134a [24/26/60]R-32/125/134a [24/26/60]
R-32/125/134a [25/20/55]R-32/125/134a [25/20/55]
R-32/125/134a [30/10/60]R-32/125/134a [30/10/60]
R-32/125/290/134a R-32/125/290/134a {20/55/5/20]{20/55/5/20]
Efficiency for Chillers (COP)
5.4
5.6
5.8
6
6.2
6.4
6.6
6.8
CFC-11 CFC-12 HCFC-22 HCFC-123 HFC-134a HFC-410A
HFC-407C
HFC-245fa
CO
P
Substitute RefrigerantsSubstitute RefrigerantsThe Refrigerants for air conditioning are:The Refrigerants for air conditioning are:
HCFC-22HCFC-22 High PressureHigh Pressure
HFC-134AHFC-134A Medium PressureMedium PressureReplacement for CFC-12Replacement for CFC-12
HCFC-123HCFC-123 Low PressureLow PressureReplacement for CFC-11Replacement for CFC-11
HFC-407cHFC-407c High PressureHigh PressureReplacement for HCFC-22Replacement for HCFC-22
HFC-410aHFC-410a High PressureHigh PressureReplacement for HCFC-22 EquipmentReplacement for HCFC-22 Equipment
Emissions
EnergyEfficiency
Focusing on Emissions and Efficiency Focusing on Emissions and Efficiency is fundamental to doing what’s right.is fundamental to doing what’s right.
The Future
Future Means Thinking Future Means Thinking GreenGreen
Designing “best value versus Designing “best value versus lowest cost” buildinglowest cost” building
The green of energy efficiencyThe green of energy efficiency The green of resource The green of resource
sustainabilitysustainability
““Green” Opportunities are Green” Opportunities are Tremendous for:Tremendous for:
ManufacturersManufacturers Consulting EngineersConsulting Engineers ContractorsContractors Facility EngineersFacility Engineers
Summary and Summary and ExpectationsExpectations
Energy Efficiency will be Strongly Energy Efficiency will be Strongly EncouragedEncouraged– Replacement of Inefficient HVAC, Replacement of Inefficient HVAC,
Lighting, and other appliancesLighting, and other appliances– Life Cycle Cost purchasing will be the Life Cycle Cost purchasing will be the
preferable process for obtaining preferable process for obtaining energy efficient systems, appliances, energy efficient systems, appliances, buildings, and automobilesbuildings, and automobiles