Global Warming and Climate Change · Science, Pseudoscience and the Battle over Global Warming David E. Thomas Lifelong Learning for New Mexicans March 18, 2013 Lecture 2 : Global

Science, Pseudoscience and the Battle over Global Warming

David E. ThomasDavid E. Thomas

Lifelong Learning for New MexicansLifelong Learning for New Mexicans

March 18, 2013March 18, 2013

Lecture 2 : Global Warming and Climate Change: For Real?

Agenda

1 Greenhouse Effect and Climate1 Greenhouse Effect and Climate

2 Global Warming: Scandals Revisited2 Global Warming: Scandals Revisited

3 Global Warming: 3 Global Warming: Man-made or Natural?Man-made or Natural?

Global Warming is Here!

Observations at Tuvalu, S.Pacific...

Meteorological Observatory Meteorological Observatory viewed during normal tide heightsviewed during normal tide heights

Observatory during higher Observatory during higher spring tidesspring tides

Melting Ice

Minimum Arctic sea ice concentration Minimum Arctic sea ice concentration 1979 versus 2003 (NASA )1979 versus 2003 (NASA )

Henry Pollack. U. Mich.

““Ice asks no questions, presents Ice asks no questions, presents no arguments, reads no no arguments, reads no newspapers, listens to no newspapers, listens to no debates. It is not burdened by debates. It is not burdened by ideology and carries no political ideology and carries no political baggage as it crosses the baggage as it crosses the threshold from solid to liquid. It threshold from solid to liquid. It just melts.just melts.””


Why is Earth’s ice deteriorating Why is Earth’s ice deteriorating so rapidly?so rapidly?““The atmosphere is warming The atmosphere is warming because of the anthropogenic because of the anthropogenic greenhouse effect. The burning greenhouse effect. The burning of carbon-based fossil fuels emits of carbon-based fossil fuels emits carbon dioxide into the carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, and enhances the atmosphere, and enhances the heat-trapping capability of heat-trapping capability of Earth’s atmosphere. ..”Earth’s atmosphere. ..”


““...ice at the top of high mountains is in ...ice at the top of high mountains is in retreat around the world. Many of the retreat around the world. Many of the tropical and mid-latitude glaciers, such as tropical and mid-latitude glaciers, such as those in Africa, the Andes, the Alps, and in those in Africa, the Andes, the Alps, and in the Rocky Mountains will probably the Rocky Mountains will probably disappear in the next few decades. Ice loss is disappear in the next few decades. Ice loss is also occurring in the Himalayas, but because also occurring in the Himalayas, but because of their greater elevations and larger ice of their greater elevations and larger ice mass, some ice will endure beyond the end of mass, some ice will endure beyond the end of the 21st century.”the 21st century.”


What does the melting of ice mean in terms What does the melting of ice mean in terms of sea level rise?of sea level rise?““Just as an ice cube afloat in a beverage Just as an ice cube afloat in a beverage glass does not raise the water level in the glass does not raise the water level in the glass as it melts, neither does the glass as it melts, neither does the accelerating seasonal melting and breakup accelerating seasonal melting and breakup of the Arctic sea ice raise sea level directly, of the Arctic sea ice raise sea level directly, because that ice is already afloat in the because that ice is already afloat in the Arctic Ocean.”Arctic Ocean.”


““But the melting of Greenland and the But the melting of Greenland and the mountain glaciers around the world mountain glaciers around the world contributes additional water to the oceans, contributes additional water to the oceans, at a rate sufficient to raise sea level at a rate sufficient to raise sea level approximately 12 centimeters over the approximately 12 centimeters over the course of a century. Such a rise in sea level course of a century. Such a rise in sea level would on its own be disruptive but not would on its own be disruptive but not catastrophic. ...”catastrophic. ...”


““But melting ice is not the only cause of an But melting ice is not the only cause of an increase in sea level. Two other factors play an increase in sea level. Two other factors play an even greater role. The first is simply the warming even greater role. The first is simply the warming of ocean water around the globe, which causes the of ocean water around the globe, which causes the sea water to expand. This factor alone contributes sea water to expand. This factor alone contributes more than half of the rise in sea level currently more than half of the rise in sea level currently observed. The second factor is the direct loss of observed. The second factor is the direct loss of ice from Greenland and Antarctica directly into ice from Greenland and Antarctica directly into the sea, without first undergoing melting. Such the sea, without first undergoing melting. Such additions of ice raise sea level the moment the ice additions of ice raise sea level the moment the ice discharges into the sea. ...”discharges into the sea. ...”

Is it just the SUN?

Fred Thompson for Paul Harvey radio Fred Thompson for Paul Harvey radio (March 2007): “(March 2007): “Some people think that Some people think that

our planet is suffering from a fever. Now our planet is suffering from a fever. Now scientists are telling us that Mars is scientists are telling us that Mars is

experiencing its own planetary warming: experiencing its own planetary warming: Martian warming. It seems scientists Martian warming. It seems scientists have noticed recently that quite a few have noticed recently that quite a few planets in our solar system seem to be planets in our solar system seem to be heating up a bit, including Pluto….heating up a bit, including Pluto….””

The Message: “Global Warming” is due to The Message: “Global Warming” is due to Solar Solar variationsvariations, and not Greenhouse Gases., and not Greenhouse Gases.

Is it just the SUN?

Don Neidig of the National Solar Observatory: Don Neidig of the National Solar Observatory: ““Results show a correlation between reconstructed Results show a correlation between reconstructed

TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) and reconstructed TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) and reconstructed global temperature that is fairly persuasive of a global temperature that is fairly persuasive of a

sun-climate link -- up until the 20th century, when sun-climate link -- up until the 20th century, when again the temperature rises fast and the TSI again the temperature rises fast and the TSI

remains more or less unchanged. … there is as yet remains more or less unchanged. … there is as yet no acceptable evidence for a solar origin for what no acceptable evidence for a solar origin for what

we call global warmingwe call global warming.”.”

Is it just the SUN?

Another Estimate of Solar Effects

The Greenhouse Effect

Absorption Absorption and Emission and Emission of EM of EM EnergyEnergy



Some Facts to Ponder...

Without Without anyany greenhouse phenomena, greenhouse phenomena, Earth's water would all be frozen. Earth's water would all be frozen. Earth would be an Ice Planet.Earth would be an Ice Planet.

““Atmospheric Lifetime” refers to Atmospheric Lifetime” refers to persistence of chemicals /gases – how persistence of chemicals /gases – how long would it take to return to long would it take to return to normal? Water Vapor, Sulfate normal? Water Vapor, Sulfate aerosols~ 1 week; COaerosols~ 1 week; CO

22, 1 century., 1 century.

Weather does not = Climate ...

Despite the protests of FOX anchors and Despite the protests of FOX anchors and local TV meteorologists, a snowstorm or local TV meteorologists, a snowstorm or unusual cold spell does not mean there unusual cold spell does not mean there is no “Global Warming.”is no “Global Warming.”

A warmer climate has more moisture and A warmer climate has more moisture and more storms. Two imminent studies show more storms. Two imminent studies show there can be more giant blizzards, yet less there can be more giant blizzards, yet less snow overall, each year.snow overall, each year.

Weather does not = Climate ...

Weather Predictions are accurate at Weather Predictions are accurate at best a few weeks ahead; analogy is best a few weeks ahead; analogy is like picking exact moment Al Gore like picking exact moment Al Gore will die.will die.

Climate Predictions involve hundreds Climate Predictions involve hundreds of sources and vetted models; analogy of sources and vetted models; analogy is like estimating life expectancy of is like estimating life expectancy of 45-year old heavy smoker for 45-year old heavy smoker for insurance policy.insurance policy.

We We dodo know climate 50 years hence know climate 50 years hence betterbetter than weather 5 weeks hence... than weather 5 weeks hence...

What of past Ice Ages?

How do we know How do we know AGW is man-AGW is man-made, and not just made, and not just Earth doing its Earth doing its natural thing?natural thing?

IPCC: The next large reduction in northern summer insolation, similar to those that started past Ice Ages, is due to begin in 30,000 years.

Comparing Past CO2 and

Temperature““Today, humans have Today, humans have driven up the driven up the concentration of carbon concentration of carbon dioxide to about 380 dioxide to about 380 parts per million—a parts per million—a value much higher than value much higher than our world has seen in our world has seen in more than half a million more than half a million years. (Graph derived years. (Graph derived from data extracted from from data extracted from an ice core recovered an ice core recovered from the Vostok Station from the Vostok Station in Antarctica)”in Antarctica)”

What is the “Hockey Stick?” A Cautionary tale of Politics and Science

1998-9 1998-9 “MBH” “MBH” paper; paper; Michael E. Michael E. Mann (Penn Mann (Penn State), State), Raymond S. Raymond S. Bradley and Bradley and Malcolm K. Malcolm K. Hughes Hughes

ClimateGate? In 2009, In 2009, Scandal Struck...Scandal Struck...

ClimateGate?

More from 2009...More from 2009...

ClimateGate?

The cornerstone of Climategate: The phrase, The cornerstone of Climategate: The phrase, “…hide the decline”“…hide the decline”

From: Phil JonesFrom: Phil JonesTo: ray bradley, Mike Mann, Malcolm HughesTo: ray bradley, Mike Mann, Malcolm HughesSubject: Diagram for WMO StatementSubject: Diagram for WMO StatementDate: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000Date: Tue, 16 Nov 1999 13:31:15 +0000Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,Dear Ray, Mike and Malcolm,Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll Once Tim's got a diagram here we'll send that either later today or first send that either later today or first thing tomorrow.thing tomorrow.I've just completed Mike's Nature I've just completed Mike's Nature tricktrick of adding in the real of adding in the real temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) temps to each series for the last 20 years (ie from 1981 onwards) amd from 1961 for Keith's to amd from 1961 for Keith's to hide the declinehide the decline. .... ...

Phil JonesPhil Jones

ClimateGate?

The cornerstone of Climategate, ContinuedThe cornerstone of Climategate, Continued……Mike's series got the annual land and marine values while Mike's series got the annual land and marine values while the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The the other two got April-Sept for NH land N of 20N. The latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for latter two are real for 1999, while the estimate for 1999 for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for NH combined is +0.44C wrt 61-90. The Global estimate for 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. 1999 with data through Oct is +0.35C cf. 0.57 for 1998. Thanks for the comments, Ray.Thanks for the comments, Ray.

CheersCheersPhilPhil

Michael MannMichael Mann

ClimateGate?

Results of Mann investigation(s)Results of Mann investigation(s)

““The so-called ‘trick’ was nothing The so-called ‘trick’ was nothing more than a statistical method used more than a statistical method used to bring two or more different kinds to bring two or more different kinds of data sets together in a legitimate of data sets together in a legitimate fashion by a technique that has fashion by a technique that has been reviewed by a broad array of been reviewed by a broad array of peers in the field.”peers in the field.”

ClimateGate?Results of Mann Results of Mann Investigation(s)Investigation(s)

February 2010: “Of four allegations, three were February 2010: “Of four allegations, three were dismissed with the statement 'there is no substance dismissed with the statement 'there is no substance to this allegation.' The fourth is an academic matter to this allegation.' The fourth is an academic matter and has been referred to a panel of faculty peers.”and has been referred to a panel of faculty peers.”

August 2011: “Finding no 'evidence of research August 2011: “Finding no 'evidence of research misconduct,' the Arlington, Virginia-based National misconduct,' the Arlington, Virginia-based National Science Foundation closed its inquiry into Mann, Science Foundation closed its inquiry into Mann, according to an Aug. 15, 2011 report from its inspector according to an Aug. 15, 2011 report from its inspector general. In February, Pennsylvania State University, where general. In February, Pennsylvania State University, where Mann is a professor of meteorology, exonerated him of Mann is a professor of meteorology, exonerated him of suppressing or falsifying data, deleting e-mails and suppressing or falsifying data, deleting e-mails and misusing privileged information...”misusing privileged information...”

ClimateGate?

[Trick] appears to be a colloquialism for a [Trick] appears to be a colloquialism for a "neat" method of handling data."neat" method of handling data.[hide the decline] was a shorthand for the [hide the decline] was a shorthand for the practice of discarding data known to be practice of discarding data known to be erroneous.erroneous.the scientific reputation of Professor Jones the scientific reputation of Professor Jones and CRU remains intact.and CRU remains intact.- House of Commons Science and Technology Select - House of Commons Science and Technology Select Committee, “The Disclosure of Climate Data from Committee, “The Disclosure of Climate Data from the Climatic Research Unit at the University of the Climatic Research Unit at the University of East Anglia,” March 31, 2010East Anglia,” March 31, 2010

Results of 1Results of 1stst Jones Jones InvestigationInvestigation

ClimateGate?……the CRU tree-ring work has been carried out the CRU tree-ring work has been carried out with integrity, and … allegations of deliberate with integrity, and … allegations of deliberate misrepresentation and unjustified selection of data misrepresentation and unjustified selection of data are not valid.are not valid.……CRU did a public service of great value by CRU did a public service of great value by carrying out much time-consuming meticulous carrying out much time-consuming meticulous work on temperature records at a time when it was work on temperature records at a time when it was unfashionable.unfashionable.We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific We saw no evidence of any deliberate scientific malpractice in any of the work of the Climatic malpractice in any of the work of the Climatic Research Unit...Research Unit...““Report of the International Panel set up by the Report of the International Panel set up by the University of East Anglia to examine the research University of East Anglia to examine the research of the Climatic Research Unit.” April 14, 2010. of the Climatic Research Unit.” April 14, 2010.

Results of 2Results of 2ndnd Jones Jones InvestigationInvestigation

ClimateGate?

What about the What about the theft of email theft of email messages from messages from working working scientists?scientists?

Mann Investigation Update

The Guardian (UK), 2 March 2012:The Guardian (UK), 2 March 2012:The two-year legal pursuit of the climate The two-year legal pursuit of the climate scientist, Michael Mann, by Virginia's climate-scientist, Michael Mann, by Virginia's climate-sceptic attorney general ran into a dead end at sceptic attorney general ran into a dead end at the state supreme court on Friday.the state supreme court on Friday.The court rejected Ken Cuccinelli's demand for The court rejected Ken Cuccinelli's demand for Mann's email, research notes, and even Mann's email, research notes, and even handwritten memos from his time at the handwritten memos from his time at the University of Virginia, ruling that the official University of Virginia, ruling that the official did not have the legal authority to demand such did not have the legal authority to demand such recordsrecords

Mann Investigation Update, Cont

The decision was seen as a victory for academic The decision was seen as a victory for academic freedom, and a personal embarrassment for freedom, and a personal embarrassment for Cuccinelli, who had hoped to use his high-profile Cuccinelli, who had hoped to use his high-profile campaign against the climate scientist to raise his campaign against the climate scientist to raise his political profile ahead of a run for governorship. political profile ahead of a run for governorship. Cuccinelli, who dismisses the existence of climate Cuccinelli, who dismisses the existence of climate change, has spent two years pursuing Mann change, has spent two years pursuing Mann through the courts, demanding access to his through the courts, demanding access to his correspondence with dozens of researchers at other correspondence with dozens of researchers at other institutions and to grant applications for an institutions and to grant applications for an investigation into possible fraud. Mann left the investigation into possible fraud. Mann left the University of Virginia in 2005, and now works at University of Virginia in 2005, and now works at Penn State University.Penn State University.

FOX NEWS was FOX NEWS was taken in by a taken in by a Hoax... (the fake Hoax... (the fake story has been on story has been on the web since 2006, the web since 2006, according to according to Snopes. ) The Snopes. ) The article vanished article vanished without retraction.without retraction.

The Sargasso Sea Saga

Sargasso Sea paleoclimate data exactly as published by Sargasso Sea paleoclimate data exactly as published by Keigwin in Science (1996). “On centennial and Keigwin in Science (1996). “On centennial and millennial time scales, SST variability has been greater millennial time scales, SST variability has been greater than has been measured over the past four decades at than has been measured over the past four decades at Station 'S'.”Station 'S'.”

Sargasso Sea Saga

Boslough, Keigwin, GSA Annual Meeting, Nov. 2, 2010Boslough, Keigwin, GSA Annual Meeting, Nov. 2, 2010


Sargasso Sea paleoclimate data exactly as published Sargasso Sea paleoclimate data exactly as published as Fig 3. in NIPCC’s (anti AGW) 2008 pamphlet. as Fig 3. in NIPCC’s (anti AGW) 2008 pamphlet. “...“...A value of 0.25 degrees C, which is the change in Sargasso A value of 0.25 degrees C, which is the change in Sargasso Sea temperature between 1975 and 2006, has been added to Sea temperature between 1975 and 2006, has been added to the 1975 data in order to provide a 2006 temperature ...”the 1975 data in order to provide a 2006 temperature ...”


The The Sargasso Sargasso Sea Sea SagaSaga

The Sargasso Sea Saga - Trever

Albuquerque JournalAlbuquerque Journal


““During the past 3,000 years, there have During the past 3,000 years, there have been five extended periods when it was been five extended periods when it was distinctly warmer than today.” Robinson distinctly warmer than today.” Robinson & Robinson, The Wall Street Journal & Robinson, The Wall Street Journal (Dec. 4, 1997). *(Dec. 4, 1997). *

* Presented without attribution* Presented without attribution** Attributed to the 1997 WSJ ** Attributed to the 1997 WSJ article by the Robinsons.article by the Robinsons.


““During the past 3,000 years, there have been During the past 3,000 years, there have been five extended periods when it was distinctly five extended periods when it was distinctly warmer than today.” Raymond Keating, warmer than today.” Raymond Keating, Testimony to House Small Business Committee Testimony to House Small Business Committee (June 4, 1998). **(June 4, 1998). **


““In fact, during the past 3,000 years there have In fact, during the past 3,000 years there have been five extended periods when it was distinctly been five extended periods when it was distinctly warmer than it is today.” Rob Kremer, warmer than it is today.” Rob Kremer, Brainstorm Magazine (April, 1998). *Brainstorm Magazine (April, 1998). *


““During the past 3,000 years, there have been During the past 3,000 years, there have been five distinct periods when it was warmer than five distinct periods when it was warmer than it is today.” National Center for Policy it is today.” National Center for Policy Analysis (NCPA) Idea House, (2001). **Analysis (NCPA) Idea House, (2001). **


““During the past 3,000 years there have been During the past 3,000 years there have been five extended periods when it was distinctly five extended periods when it was distinctly warmer than it is today.” The Fifty Minute warmer than it is today.” The Fifty Minute Hour (Dec. 7, 2001). *Hour (Dec. 7, 2001). *


““In fact, during the past 3,000 years there In fact, during the past 3,000 years there have been five extended periods when it was have been five extended periods when it was distinctly warmer than it is today.” distinctly warmer than it is today.” www.youdebate.com (April, 2003). *www.youdebate.com (April, 2003). *


““In fact, during the past 3,000 years there have In fact, during the past 3,000 years there have been five extended periods when it was been five extended periods when it was distinctly warmer than it is today.” Bhuwan distinctly warmer than it is today.” Bhuwan Prasad, University of Toronto Bulletin (Jan. 13, Prasad, University of Toronto Bulletin (Jan. 13, 2003). *2003). *

Posing as scientists, credentials inflation

Posing as scientists, credentials inflation

Albert S. Abdullah, DVM

Ava V. Ackerman, DVM

George C. Alexander, DVM

Madelyn H. Allen, DVM

Robert G. Allen, DVM

Robert L. Amster, DVM

Lynn C. Anderson, DVM

Donald Applegate, DVM

James R. Armstrong, DVM

Robert Arnold Jr., DVM

Gene H. Abels, MD

Alan V. Abrams, MD

Dwight L. Adams, MD

Anthony W. Adams, MD

Richard W. Adams, MD

Albert H. Adams, MD

Rusty Adcock, MD

Joseph E. Adducci, MD

John H. Adrain, MD

Robert F. Agnew, MD …etc.

New Data on Hockey Stickhttp://climatedesk.org/2013/03/a-bigger-badder-climate-hockey-stick/

How “Skeptics” view Climate Change

INTERMISSION

The “Wegman Report”

In 2006 a team of statisticians led In 2006 a team of statisticians led by Edward Wegman, chair of the by Edward Wegman, chair of the National Academy of Sciences’ (NAS) National Academy of Sciences’ (NAS) Committee on Applied and Theoretical Committee on Applied and Theoretical Statistics, was assembled at the request of Statistics, was assembled at the request of U.S. Rep. Joe Barton and U.S. Rep. Ed U.S. Rep. Joe Barton and U.S. Rep. Ed Whitfield.Whitfield.

The “Wegman Report”

Findings: MBH98 and MBH99 were found to Findings: MBH98 and MBH99 were found to be "somewhat obscure and incomplete" and be "somewhat obscure and incomplete" and the criticisms by McIntyre and McKitrick the criticisms by McIntyre and McKitrick were found to be "valid and compelling.";were found to be "valid and compelling.";Overall, the committee rejected Mann’s Overall, the committee rejected Mann’s assessment that the 1990s was the hottest assessment that the 1990s was the hottest decade of the millennium, and that 1998 was decade of the millennium, and that 1998 was the hottest year of the millennium.the hottest year of the millennium.

Cut to 2006, Barton hearing with Wegman

On NPR.org:On NPR.org:http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5569901http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5569901 (2:40) (2:40)

Asked by Rep. Jan Schakowsky about the Asked by Rep. Jan Schakowsky about the greenhouse mechanism, Wegman replied: greenhouse mechanism, Wegman replied: “Carbon dioxide is heavier than air. Where it sits “Carbon dioxide is heavier than air. Where it sits in the atmospheric profile, I don't know. I'm not in the atmospheric profile, I don't know. I'm not an atmospheric scientist to know that. But an atmospheric scientist to know that. But presumably... if the carbon dioxide is close to the presumably... if the carbon dioxide is close to the surface of the earth, it's not reflecting a lot of surface of the earth, it's not reflecting a lot of infra-red back... ” infra-red back... ”

http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=5569901

Cut to 2010 – Cruel Irony

““The actual scandal is associated with the The actual scandal is associated with the Barton investigation. [In Jan. 2010] a Barton investigation. [In Jan. 2010] a blogger called 'Deep Climate' demonstrated blogger called 'Deep Climate' demonstrated that, in a cruel irony, the Wegman team that, in a cruel irony, the Wegman team actually plagiarized from a textbook written actually plagiarized from a textbook written by one of the scientists [Bradley] under by one of the scientists [Bradley] under investigation. Even worse, they changed the investigation. Even worse, they changed the meaning of the text they stole. ...”meaning of the text they stole. ...”Mark BosloughMark Boslough

A word from Heartland Institute

Mark Boslough's column Mark Boslough's column “Climate-change deniers “Climate-change deniers ignore science” in the ignore science” in the January 24January 24thth, 2011 Santa Fe , 2011 Santa Fe New Mexican: New Mexican:

Regarding former astronaut and senator Harrison Regarding former astronaut and senator Harrison Schmitt, who had been nominated for the secretary of Schmitt, who had been nominated for the secretary of Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department by Governor Susana Martinezby Governor Susana Martinez


Boslough: “In 2009, Schmitt submitted a Boslough: “In 2009, Schmitt submitted a white paper to NASA. He stated, 'Artic (sic) white paper to NASA. He stated, 'Artic (sic) sea ice has returned to 1989 levels of sea ice has returned to 1989 levels of coverage.' I wrote to him, politely pointing coverage.' I wrote to him, politely pointing out that this was not true, and directing him out that this was not true, and directing him to the data from the National Snow and Ice to the data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center (the ice extent in 2009 had not Data Center (the ice extent in 2009 had not recovered, and as of this writing is at an all-recovered, and as of this writing is at an all-time winter low). ...”time winter low). ...”


Boslough, continued: “He [Schmitt] Boslough, continued: “He [Schmitt] responded, but never made the necessary responded, but never made the necessary correction. Anyone can make a mistake, correction. Anyone can make a mistake, but scientific integrity requires that but scientific integrity requires that authors own up to mistakes and fix them.”authors own up to mistakes and fix them.”


A week later, Joseph Bast of the A week later, Joseph Bast of the Heartland Institute (which Boslough Heartland Institute (which Boslough describes as a “right-wing organization describes as a “right-wing organization that actively engages in attacks on that actively engages in attacks on objective scientific findings”), published objective scientific findings”), published an opposing op-ed in the New Mexican.an opposing op-ed in the New Mexican.January 31, 2011 January 31, 2011


Bast wrote “Unlike Boslough and his Bast wrote “Unlike Boslough and his allies, global-warming realists don't, by allies, global-warming realists don't, by implication, compare people who disagree implication, compare people who disagree with them to Holocaust with them to Holocaust deniersdeniers. That is a . That is a disgusting rhetorical trick that is likely disgusting rhetorical trick that is likely and perhaps even calculated to inflame the and perhaps even calculated to inflame the emotions of people, some of whom may be emotions of people, some of whom may be mentally unbalanced.”mentally unbalanced.”


Who else calls those who Who else calls those who support Heartland support Heartland ”Deniers” ?”Deniers” ?


National Snow and Ice Data Center, Santa National Snow and Ice Data Center, Santa Fe New Mexican, Feb. 7, 2011:Fe New Mexican, Feb. 7, 2011:Regarding Mark Boslough's Jan. 25 My View, Regarding Mark Boslough's Jan. 25 My View, 'Climate-change deniers ignore science,' and in 'Climate-change deniers ignore science,' and in subsequent responses, there was discussion of subsequent responses, there was discussion of Harrison Schmitt's statement in 2009 that Arctic sea Harrison Schmitt's statement in 2009 that Arctic sea ice had recovered to 1989 levels. Since data from the ice had recovered to 1989 levels. Since data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center were cited, we feel National Snow and Ice Data Center were cited, we feel it worthwhile to clarify the issue for readers.it worthwhile to clarify the issue for readers.


National Snow and Ice Data Center, cont'dNational Snow and Ice Data Center, cont'dSea ice conditions can vary from month to month, Sea ice conditions can vary from month to month, but overall we see the continuation of a strong but overall we see the continuation of a strong downward trend. You can read our 2009 season downward trend. You can read our 2009 season analysis at analysis at nsidc.org/news/press/20091005_minimumpr.html.nsidc.org/news/press/20091005_minimumpr.html. While 2009 Arctic sea ice extent did briefly exceed While 2009 Arctic sea ice extent did briefly exceed 1989 levels in April and May, it was substantially 1989 levels in April and May, it was substantially less than 1989 the rest of the year.less than 1989 the rest of the year.


National Snow and Ice Data Center, cont'dNational Snow and Ice Data Center, cont'd The 2009 maximum extent, minimum extent, and The 2009 maximum extent, minimum extent, and annual average extent values were all well below annual average extent values were all well below 1989. Based on these facts, it would be incorrect 1989. Based on these facts, it would be incorrect to suggest that 2009 represented a recovery of to suggest that 2009 represented a recovery of Arctic sea ice to 1989 levels. ...Walt Meier and Arctic sea ice to 1989 levels. ...Walt Meier and Mark Serreze are senior research scientists at Mark Serreze are senior research scientists at National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of National Snow and Ice Data Center, University of Colorado at Boulder.”Colorado at Boulder.”


The The GraphGraph

And Schmitt's nomination?

The Albuquerque Journal reported on Feb. 10th that The Albuquerque Journal reported on Feb. 10th that “Harrison Schmitt, a former NASA astronaut who was “Harrison Schmitt, a former NASA astronaut who was chosen by Gov. Susana Martinez to head up the state's chosen by Gov. Susana Martinez to head up the state's Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, Energy, Minerals and Natural Resources Department, has withdrawn his nomination after a squabble with the has withdrawn his nomination after a squabble with the Senate Rules Committee over background checks. Senate Rules Committee over background checks. Martinez's office just announced the news, which comes Martinez's office just announced the news, which comes slightly more than one month since Schmitt's slightly more than one month since Schmitt's appointment was first announced. ...”appointment was first announced. ...”

New NCSE Initiative

New from Heartland: “FakeGate”

Peter Gleick conned Peter Gleick conned Heartland into Heartland into revealing sensitive revealing sensitive strategy documents.strategy documents.

As part of NCSE's expansion to defend the As part of NCSE's expansion to defend the teaching of climate science, Gleick had teaching of climate science, Gleick had earlier agreed to join NCSE's board of earlier agreed to join NCSE's board of directors. His resignation was accepted.directors. His resignation was accepted.


What was obtained from Heartland?What was obtained from Heartland?

"Leaked documents suggest that an "Leaked documents suggest that an organization [Heartland] known for attacking organization [Heartland] known for attacking climate science is planning a new push to climate science is planning a new push to undermine the teaching of global warming in undermine the teaching of global warming in public schools, the latest indication that climate public schools, the latest indication that climate change is becoming a part of the nation’s change is becoming a part of the nation’s culture wars," reported The New York Times culture wars," reported The New York Times (February 15, 2012).(February 15, 2012).


From Heartland's own site:From Heartland's own site:http://heartland.org/media-library/QPR/QPR-2012-1Q-web.pdfhttp://heartland.org/media-library/QPR/QPR-2012-1Q-web.pdf

““In 2012 we are pursuing four projects on global In 2012 we are pursuing four projects on global warming. … warming. … The second project is creation of a global The second project is creation of a global warming curriculum for K-12 schools. Many people warming curriculum for K-12 schools. Many people lament the absence of educational material that isn’t lament the absence of educational material that isn’t alarmist or overtly political. Late last year, we found a alarmist or overtly political. Late last year, we found a curriculum expert who is also an expert on the global curriculum expert who is also an expert on the global warming controversy. We think he can finally break warming controversy. We think he can finally break the code on getting sound science and economics into the code on getting sound science and economics into classrooms. ...”classrooms. ...”


From John Mashey at Desmogblog.com:From John Mashey at Desmogblog.com:http://www.desmogblog.com/fakeducation-years-heartlandhttp://www.desmogblog.com/fakeducation-years-heartland

The NY Times, LA Times and many others criticized The NY Times, LA Times and many others criticized Heartland’s inept plan to hire David Wojick to create Heartland’s inept plan to hire David Wojick to create an alternate-reality K-12 climate science curriculum. an alternate-reality K-12 climate science curriculum. But Heartland's school ground attack on science is But Heartland's school ground attack on science is nothing new … One of the best known Heartland nothing new … One of the best known Heartland incursions into the schoolyard occurred in 2008, when incursions into the schoolyard occurred in 2008, when the institute mailed teaching materials the institute mailed teaching materials to 11,250 schools in Canada. to 11,250 schools in Canada.


Mashey: Mashey: In 2009, Science derided Heartland for In 2009, Science derided Heartland for sending copies of The Skeptic’s Handbook to 14,000 US sending copies of The Skeptic’s Handbook to 14,000 US school board officials. Heartland's Environment and school board officials. Heartland's Environment and Climate New[s] mocked one school board president for Climate New[s] mocked one school board president for his refusal to use it. But Heartland began its classroom his refusal to use it. But Heartland began its classroom misinformation campaign much earlier. During 2002-misinformation campaign much earlier. During 2002-2003, E&CN ran ads exhorting readers to “discuss an 2003, E&CN ran ads exhorting readers to “discuss an E&CN article with your school-age child… and his or E&CN article with your school-age child… and his or her teacher.” I hope parents avoided the common her teacher.” I hope parents avoided the common “Smoker’s Lounge” ads in those issues.“Smoker’s Lounge” ads in those issues.

Fact-checking Nugget:

Mashey, March 27, 2012: Mashey, March 27, 2012: And it's always worth remembering that Heartland And it's always worth remembering that Heartland President Joe Bast vigorously defended Joe Camel (the President Joe Bast vigorously defended Joe Camel (the most successful campaign to get kids to smoke younger) most successful campaign to get kids to smoke younger) ... And then asked for more money. The only real ... And then asked for more money. The only real surprise for me in 2012 documents was fact that surprise for me in 2012 documents was fact that Heartland is now getting more cigarette money than in Heartland is now getting more cigarette money than in 2001. 2001. Let us know how the class goes.Let us know how the class goes.(Back to skiing.)(Back to skiing.)

Heartland and Joe Camel

New from Heartland

““State Farm is ending its association with the State Farm is ending its association with the Heartland Institute. This is because of a recent Heartland Institute. This is because of a recent billboard campaign launched by the Institute.” billboard campaign launched by the Institute.” LA Times, May 9, 2012LA Times, May 9, 2012

Climate Denial Crock of the Week

“spOILed” the Movie

Local filmmaker Mark Mathis has Local filmmaker Mark Mathis has

a new movie, “spOILed.”a new movie, “spOILed.” Science or Science or

Pseudoscience?Pseudoscience?

“spOILed”

Train ClipTrain Clip

“spOILed”

In “spOILed,” Randal O'Toole, author of In “spOILed,” Randal O'Toole, author of “Gridlock: Why We're Stuck in Traffic”: is put “Gridlock: Why We're Stuck in Traffic”: is put on-screen to disparage light rail, saying on-screen to disparage light rail, saying “Americans ride rail transit 88 miles a year; an “Americans ride rail transit 88 miles a year; an average western European rides rail transit 96 average western European rides rail transit 96 miles a year. 10% more, for having four times miles a year. 10% more, for having four times the investment. So they're very energy wasteful; the investment. So they're very energy wasteful; and financially, enormously expensive to move and financially, enormously expensive to move people around.”people around.”

“spOILed”

I checked around for information on I checked around for information on several websites, including several websites, including en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_usage_statistics_by_countryen.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rail_usage_statistics_by_country

, and found that, contrary to Mathis's , and found that, contrary to Mathis's expert, German rail travel exceeds US expert, German rail travel exceeds US rates by rates by many timesmany times. Specifically, Germany . Specifically, Germany had 1.95 Billion passengers in 2010; had had 1.95 Billion passengers in 2010; had 910 passenger km per head; and racked up 910 passenger km per head; and racked up 78.58 B passenger-km in that year. 78.58 B passenger-km in that year.

“spOILed”

The USA, on the other hand, had less than The USA, on the other hand, had less than half a billion passengers in a year (25% of half a billion passengers in a year (25% of Germany), along with only 80 passenger Germany), along with only 80 passenger km per head (9% of Germany), and a total km per head (9% of Germany), and a total of 17.21 B passenger-km (22% of of 17.21 B passenger-km (22% of Germany).Germany).

“spOILed”

Germans don't ride the rails a mere “10% Germans don't ride the rails a mere “10% more than Americans,” per person, they more than Americans,” per person, they ride more than 10 times what the average ride more than 10 times what the average American travels by rail in a single year. American travels by rail in a single year. One wonders what other facts were One wonders what other facts were slaughtered in the making of this film.slaughtered in the making of this film.

“spOILed”

JW Madison, the train JW Madison, the train expert who spoke to NMSR expert who spoke to NMSR earlier this year, suggests the earlier this year, suggests the following websites as sources following websites as sources of reliable information: his of reliable information: his group's website, group's website, www.nmrails.org, and also www.nmrails.org, and also www.lightrailnow.org/mythbusters www.lightrailnow.org/mythbusters

“spOILed” vs Trains

Bottom Line – Who's Right?




Global Warming Consensus

Anderegg et al, PNAS, PNAS June 21, 2010Anderegg et al, PNAS, PNAS June 21, 2010http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107

““Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate Here, we use an extensive dataset of 1,372 climate researchers and their publication and citation data to show researchers and their publication and citation data to show that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively that (i) 97–98% of the climate researchers most actively publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined publishing in the field support the tenets of ACC outlined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, and (ii) the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the relative climate expertise and scientific prominence of the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially the researchers unconvinced of ACC are substantially below that of the convinced researchers.”below that of the convinced researchers.”

http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/06/04/1003187107


Doran in EOS, 20 January 2009Doran in EOS, 20 January 2009http://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdfhttp://tigger.uic.edu/~pdoran/012009_Doran_final.pdf

2. Do you 2. Do you think human think human activity is a activity is a significantsignificantcontributing contributing factor in factor in changingchangingmean global mean global temperatures?temperatures?


James Lawrence Powell James Lawrence Powell searched the Web of searched the Web of Science for peer-reviewed Science for peer-reviewed scientific articles scientific articles published between 1 published between 1 January 1991 and 9 January 1991 and 9 November 2012 that have November 2012 that have the keyword phrases the keyword phrases "global warming" or "global warming" or "global climate change." "global climate change." The search produced The search produced 13,950 articles.13,950 articles.

Military Concern

Climate Change Is the Biggest Threat in the Pacific, Says Climate Change Is the Biggest Threat in the Pacific, Says Top U.S. AdmiralTop U.S. Admiral By Spencer Ackerman, wired.com, 03.11.13By Spencer Ackerman, wired.com, 03.11.13““Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III is no smelly hippie. He Adm. Samuel J. Locklear III is no smelly hippie. He became chief of U.S. Pacific Command last year after became chief of U.S. Pacific Command last year after running the maritime portion of NATO’s 2011 war running the maritime portion of NATO’s 2011 war against Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi. To against Libyan dictator Muammar Gadhafi. To Locklear, the consequences of a warming planet are Locklear, the consequences of a warming planet are likely to 'cripple the security environment, probably likely to 'cripple the security environment, probably more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk more likely than the other scenarios we all often talk about.'”about.'”

New Sea Lanes in Arctic

New Sea Lanes in Arctic

Conclusions

At NMSR, Henry Pollack talked about the At NMSR, Henry Pollack talked about the need for leveling the playing field between need for leveling the playing field between carbon-based and non-carbon-based energy carbon-based and non-carbon-based energy sources; currently, he said carbon-based fuels sources; currently, he said carbon-based fuels are dumping CO2 into the atmosphere as if it are dumping CO2 into the atmosphere as if it were an 'open sewer,' with no penalties were an 'open sewer,' with no penalties assessed for this very real pollution. assessed for this very real pollution.

Conclusion

Regarding those who say that climate Regarding those who say that climate warming will continue even if carbon warming will continue even if carbon emissions were stopped today, Pollack said it emissions were stopped today, Pollack said it is a matter of degree. If we act now, the is a matter of degree. If we act now, the oceans may rise several inches, displacing oceans may rise several inches, displacing millions of people. But, failing to act now millions of people. But, failing to act now could mean the oceans will rise several feet, could mean the oceans will rise several feet, displacing perhaps billions.displacing perhaps billions.

Conclusion

In regards to the East Anglia e-mail “scandal”, In regards to the East Anglia e-mail “scandal”, Pollack pointed out that global climate science is Pollack pointed out that global climate science is performed by many agencies and universities performed by many agencies and universities besides this small school. Even if every scientist at besides this small school. Even if every scientist at East Anglia was a conniving cheater, many East Anglia was a conniving cheater, many scientists at NOAA, NSF, IPCC, and universities scientists at NOAA, NSF, IPCC, and universities worldwide are not. While some of the leaked worldwide are not. While some of the leaked exchanges were quite rude, Henry pointed out that exchanges were quite rude, Henry pointed out that Isaac Newton may have also been rude, but he was Isaac Newton may have also been rude, but he was correct about gravity regardless.”correct about gravity regardless.”

Boslough – Let's Bet!

Resources

http://www.nmsr.org/http://www.nmsr.org/

http://ncse.comhttp://ncse.com

http://realclimate.org/http://realclimate.org/

http://www.skepticalscience.comhttp://www.skepticalscience.com

http://puckerclust.wordpress.com/http://puckerclust.wordpress.com/

Just for Fun...

Documents

Global Warming and Climate Change · Science, Pseudoscience and the Battle over Global Warming David E. Thomas Lifelong Learning for New Mexicans March 18, 2013 Lecture 2 : Global