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23/11/2018
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Global Warming and Climate Change
Tim CooperPhys 111 Oct 18
Global Warming
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Satellites measure
• Heat from Sun to Earth• Heat from Earth to Space
• -Subtract => Global Warming
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Nasa Data: Note Flow of Heat from Oceans to Atmosphere (La Nina and El Nino… every few years)
Global Warming Ended in 1998!
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Up to 2016
2017 …. A tad below 2016 so far
Including 2017
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Climate Change
Why the poles are cold
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The Earth’s climate/weather system is a heat engine!
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Effect of Rotation (Coriolis force)
Ice and SnowIce reflects 90% of light energyWater Absorbs 90% of light energy
Hotter => ice becomes water => less sunlight reflected => hotter Earth
A positive feedback
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So Pole Warms more than equatorAs we lower the temperature difference,The “heat engine” falters and slows.
Cells become less stableJet Stream wanders more(“Polar Vortex”)
Weather patterns move more slowlyWeather patterns stick in one place longerDroughts and Floods
Calgary AB, 2013
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Was the flooding in Calgary caused by global warming?
Pause for dramatic effect, and possibly an answer
99%Yes
Hansen’s Analysis
Science and History
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All countries’ scientific councils
• Agree on three points
• The planet is warming• We are causing it• It is very, very dangerous
… is this a proof???
Rigg’s Glacier: Muir Inlet. Alaska’s Glacial Bay Nat. Pk;(1941.. 70m feet thick)
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Rigg’s Glacier in 2004
But is it a proof?
Scientists are split on Global Warming?
But is that a proof?
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1824: Joseph Fourier Calculated Earth’s temp to be -18C
Experiment => average of +14C Fourier Deduced…
The Earth received energy from the Sun.
5500oC
14oC
Something in the air is blocking heat escape!
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John Tyndall measures the heat absorbing propertiesof carbon dioxide
1859
1896 Arrhenius:
Doubling carbon dioxide levels in the earth’s atmosphere (290ppm->580ppm)would raise global temperatures 5-6C
Consistent with today’s calculations!
Included ice and water vapour feedbacks
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A tale of two planets….
Venus, 460C Earth 14C
Moon, -18CV. Moon, 7C
For the last 1000 years
403ppm in Feb 29 2016408.5 ppm May 2nd 2017411 ppm in June 2018
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Where did the Carbon Dioxide come from?
Anthropogenic Greenhouse Effect
Coal (electricity) Oil (transportation)
And Natural Gas
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Carbon Dioxide Flows (2005-2014)
Total: Human activity =>10.8 GT Carbon(9.9 GT Fossil Fuels and Cement, 0.9 GT Deforest.)
Oceans absorb 2.8 GTLand plants absorb 3.3 GTAtmosphere accumulates 4.8GT
Ice Ages and Carbon Dioxide
Humans appeared 200 Thousand years agoCivilisation started 10kya, in the Holocene
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The last time CO2 was 400ppm : 3MYA, the Pliocene
Looking ahead by looking back…
Carbon Dioxide increasing 200x faster than in history
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Looking Ahead
Pliocene(3MYA): 400ppm Carbon Dioxide
Sea level was about 15-25m higher (and the temperature 2-3C warmer)
Why are London, NY, Shanghai and Chilliwack still here?
The Earth is not in radiative equilibrium.
Just give it time… it will get there.
Current sea level rise about 3mm/year, so25m/(3mm/year)=8000 years.
Or feedbacks and/or new emissions speed it up
Hanson recently pointed out the oceans in the past havenever taken more than 200 years to respond.. So Chwk?
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The State of the Art in Modeling the Climate (2005)
Global Climate Models
Carbon Dioxide Effect vs data
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Aerosols (aka Smogs)
Aerosols vs data
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All factors vs data
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2015-whats-warming-the-world/
Carbon Dioxide isn’t the only problemMethane traps heat too!
Carbon Dioxide, half life of hundreds of years
Methane (natural gas), half life of 10 years (increasing).
Over 100 years, one kg of methane traps 33 times one kg of carbon dioxide.
But over 20 years, it is 84 times
Methane from Fracking=> 3-5% escape.So… actually worse than coal for <100yrs
About 23% of the warming so far from Methane
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Land warms more than water (hence IPPC preds look smaller)
So with present government policies..
… actually we now expect by 2060
Why so Hot??? After 2C…
• Water Vapour Feedback• Ice/Snow feedback• Carbon dioxide in oceans feedback• Soil Warming feedback• Tundra Melting feedback(not in models)• Not included: Methane Hydrates, 3rd world meat,
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Water Vapour….an almost 50% effect!
Earth’s atmosphere contains 4-5% more water vapour than before we burned fossil fuels! It traps heat.
Carbon Dioxide from Oceans Feedback
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Carbon Dioxide from Oceans Feedback
The Holocene; we should be going icy!
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Numbers in GT or GT/yr.
Note: Ocean AcidificationSoil Warming
Plant Respiration and Soil Activity
Fridge or Table???
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Permafrost melting => decay => Methane/CO2
1672 GTonnes of Carbon: note the compost effect
Could triple the Carbon in the atmosphere!
Composting!!!
Food Supply• Fraser Valley dryer summers• Bigger freshets (30% says Vanc)• Californian food to be clobbered as
glaciers gone from mountains• India (25% food loss at 2C)• China (35% food loss at 2C)• Spain, Italy, Australia…. All deserts
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Does this have to happen?
Politics
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The planet’s Top Climate Scientist
Says if the Tar sands are fully developed it is ‘game-over’ for the climate; a 40% increase in CO2
The BC government is subsidising LNG facilities up north(900k EV), the Federal government is supporting Dilbit pipeline extension to fully develop the tar sands.
Does this have to happen?
A recent IMF report estimates that Canada subsidisesfossil fuels by $34 Billion per year.
$1 Billion Direct Federal Support ($1.3?)$5 Billion Direct Federal and Provincial Support$28 Billion in Indirect Subsidies .
http://www.imf.org/external/np/fad/subsidies/
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Climate Action Network Europe calculates…
Feb 2015
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What SHOULD N-America be doing?
Only 15% of Canada’s Carbon Dioxide emissions comeFrom you and me!
So…. 85% from industry.
To influence industry requires an incentive…..
Literally one days work for the feds
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Tweaking the Tax System!
Use a Pigouvian system- Tax people when they do bad(sin taxes)
- Don’t tax them when they do good(create jobs, serve the public)
So reduce business and income taxes, and Start taxing pollution...i.e. a carbon tax
Millions of 1995$
Cumulative GDP Loss
Change from prior
period
Change/year
GDP (1997$)
Impact per year as %
of GDP
2010 4,773 - 4,773 - 1,193 1,326,000 - 0.090%
2015 4,889 - 116 - 23 1,464,011 - 0.002%
2020 4,551 + 338 + 68 1,616,387 + 0.004%
2030 3,829 + 722 + 72 1,970,366 + 0.004%
The Fed. Cons said a carbon tax will ruin the economy
Canada’s economic community (M. Jaccard) say:
For $50 per tonne of carbon dioxide equivalent(BC carbon tax frozen at $35 per tonne)
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Can we substitute for Fossil Fuels?
Top priority, eliminate burning coalfor electricity
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Photo-Voltaic Panels… work on the ground too
Solar Energy Progress up to 2015
UAE contract for 2.5c/kWhr!(cite C… 8c/kWhr) (China 2017 50GW)
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Generate Electricity From Wind!
7 Megawatt TurbineIn Germany
Cost about theSame as coal (4c/kWhr)
BUT
Cheaper overall!!
(40,000/yr dead from coal in US)
June ‘16. Mexico. 3c/kWhr
Cost of Wind Energy
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Global New Energy Generation Installed in 2015
70% renewable for 2017!
During 2017 China added 50GW of PV
Global New Energy Generation 2016
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In 2015, Denmark generated 42% of its electricityFrom wind/solar (mostly wind). It will increaseThis in the future.
31/3/16: Holland has passed a law to ban all sales of gasoline or diesel powered cars by 2025. India by 2027(ish)
California 100% renewable by 2050
California could meet its energy needs with renewables alone, according to Stanford University researchers. The authors of a recent study say a transition scenario is economically as well as technically feasible.
http://www.dw.de/100-percent-renewable-energy-scenario-for-california/a-17808841?maca=en-rss-en-all-1573-rdf
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• The same group also say…
• After measuring Canada's clean-energy resources, the Stanford team says Canada can reach this goal through the following breakdown:
• 58 per cent wind.• 22 per cent solar.• 16 per cent hydro.• Two per cent wave.• Two per cent geothermal.
JOBSThere were 23,700 people directly employed by the clean energy industry in 2013, compared to 22,340 jobs in the
oilsands, the report found. Those green jobs include people employed in clean power production, energy efficiency,
biofuels and manufacturing of green energy technologies.
Clean Energy Canada, 2014.
McDonalds Canada employs 80,000
Kinder Morgan Pipeline.. About 80 permanent jobs
2017 : N. America wide now more jobs in solar than oil, coal & gas combined!
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Or (Gen III or IV) Nuclear Energy
Or geothermal, tidal, hydro….
Next priority; Stop using Oil!
Canada has signed an internation agreement to stop subsidizing oil….but…
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Nissan Leaf – 160km range‘full tank’ about $2
$18k-$22k in Chwk for 2 year old
El Cheapo and his car
Tesla 3 or Chevy Bolt, Huyndai Kona 4-500km
Why Electric Vehicles get cheaper…
Britain, France, Germany, Norway, the Netherlands, Scotland and China have all announced they will eventually prohibit the sale of gas- and diesel-fuelled vehicles.
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To Conclude:
The planet is warming dangerously
We are causing it with (mostly) Carbon Dioxide
Stopping it (might be) just barely possible now…
but not later
And don’t ask me about ocean acidification
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What can I do??
Write to your MP Vote appropriately
That’s (almost) all Folks!
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The End
Thorium Fuel Cycle
- Thorium more abundant than Uranium- Leaves less long lived waste than Uranium- Does not generate Plutonium in the cycle
FissionUn
UPaThThn
23392
23392
23391
23390
23290 )()(
Note: needs neutron source to start.
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..and in the USA
El Nino Events
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World-Wide Fossil Fuel Subsidies 2015(International Monetary Fund)
Local Pollution US$2.734TGlobal Warming US$1.268TDirect Subsidy US$0.333TOther Local Factors US$0.969TTotal US$5.304T
Total subsidy for renewable energy US$0.12T
http://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2016/12/31/How-Large-Are-Global-Energy-Subsidies-42940
