Global visions and dreams

Progress in Nuclear Energy, Vol. 32. No. 314. pp. 225-234, 199X 0 1997 PublIshed by Hsev~er Science Ltd

Prmred in Great Bntan 0149-1970198 $19.00 + 0.00

PII:SO149-1970(97)00022-X

GLOBAL VISIONS AND DREAMS

JOHN GRAHAM

Immediate Past President American Nuclear Society, La Grange Park, lllinots, USA

ABSTRACT

The role of nuclear science and technology m socrety today is far greater than tre simple production of electrical energy from nuclear generating plants. Studies of the IJS economy in 1992 showed that the economic benefit in terms of jobs and revenues arising from the use of nuclear science and technology in medicine, manufacturing applications, research, food irradiation, waste management, transport, and the like was approximately four to five times as large as: the economic benefit arising from the nuclear generation power. Thus, when projections for the 2lst Century are made in terms of the Global Environment and the use of nuclear energy, it is important to project ahead In nuclear science and technology in its totality rather than focusing solely on nucler[r power systems. The present status of nuclear science and technology IS discussed in the areas of power. medicine, manufacturing, agnculture and food, genentl consumer fields, space and biological research. The paper then investigates the methodology and limitations of Vrsion, especially when applied to time scales of the order of several decades to half a century. The lessons of history, the effect of social parameters, exponential growth of screnttftc technology and, most importantly, the influence of combinmg non-nuclear technologres are all discussed. In particular it IS noted, that despite making predictions 50-years into the future is almost impossible, it is nevertheless necessary to make the effort. By making predictions one establishes far islands cl possibilities towards which Society and research can advance. Thus, even if the prediction is wrong the very act of moving forward will generate new adv(ances that were never before considered. Within these parameters the paper presents predictrons in each of application areas considered -- predictions which might appear to be science fiction at this time, in the same way that predictions made in 1990 were so much science fiction until some of them came true. These predictions are made with the objective of persuading the reader to generate his or her own vision, his or her own predictions, and his or her own research targets.

0 1997 Published by Elsevier Science Ltd

THE PRESENT STATUS OF NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

Present boundaries frame our behavior and the ability to forecast change -- even the boundancs pro\ ~dcd by the outline of a document confine predictions. The outhne presents the present fields 01 apphcauon. whereas applicatins of radiation and radioactive sources within the next fifty years may have opened enurely new fields that are relevant to the social conditions of that time. The following should be read beanng In mind this restriction on the boundaries of its validity.

In the past fifty years, applications of nuclear science have grown from nothing (zero) to be an mdispensable part of the wealth of developed nations, and to be the hope for under-developed populauons.

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J. Graham

Nuclear fission is employed as a source of heat generation in a large and growing number of countries around the world. In most applications the heat is used to generate electricity and in a few it is used for other applications such as desalination and heating. Electrical generation presently supplies 20% of the total global electrical supplies, ranging from a few percent in some countries up to 78% in France. This variation depends on the availability and cost of alternative generating systems such as the burning of fossil fuels and hydropower. Worldwide, 415 units are in operation generating 330,000 MWe. Most nuclear power plants (341) are based on the Light Water Reactor, either pressurized, boiling, or graphite-moderated, with a few heavy water systems (34) and some gas-cooled systems (36). In three countries liquid metal fast reactors (4) are in operation although presently on a research or demonstration basis. Current nuclear power development suffers from opposition resulting from the cost of new systems, this cost being aggravated by the length of the licensing process in several countries (notably the U.S.) and from vocal opposition groups who play on public fears of radiation and reactor accidents. There have been a small number of reactor accidents with the worst at Chernobyl although their risks compared to other human endeavors are very small. Nevertheless, tire mere possibility of an accident has contributed to a hiatus in nuclear power plant orders in the developed countries. Currently another 91 units are in construction and commissioning. Power programs in the Western Pacific, where power is urgently needed are large and ongoing. China, for example, projects 150,000 MW by the year 2030. The Japanese program, based on a self-sustaining plutonium reprocessing cycle and a mix of fast and thermal reactors, is moving steadily forward with the 1994 criticality of MONJU, the demonstration fast breeder reactor. Nuclear power with is lack of significant gaseous or liquid effluents has proved to be environmentally benign. However, the program produces nuclear waste which must be disposed of. Again the vocal opposition to nuclear power systems uses the disposal of waste issue as an argument for delaying development.

Medical.

In the medical field, direct radiation fields and nuclear isotopes provide both diagnostic and therapeutic tools for the medical profession. The field now has its own qualifications and its own certified practitioners -- radiologists and the like. Diagnostic tools include x-ray applications -- both medical and dental, CT scans, and, recently, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) facilities. These tools provide the physician with an interpretable image of the internal organs of the body. They each have distinct advantageous applications: X-rays and CT scans provide good bone images but little information on soft tissue; MRI machines, while presently slow and expensive, provide excellent cross-cut imaging of soft tissues including tumors. Magnetic Resonance Imaging has developed from a first image in 1973, to the first live human images in 1977, to normal clinical use today. (Reference 1) Proton MRI is expected to improve the quality and costs. The latest single photon emission tomography @PET) or positron emission tomography (PET) allow scientists to watch color images of chemical reactions in living tissue, and, in particular, to trace opioid molecules (naturally occurring morphine-type drugs) which quell pain within the brain. (Reference 2) Beyond this macro-imaging, isotopes and labeled molecules are used as tracers to identify off-normal bodily processes. About one in three patients hospitalized in a modem hospital will have a diagnostic procedure performed in which a radioactive tracer has an essential role (Reference 3). As a particular example, a patient’s blood flow may be measured by following tracers with an external scintillation camera. Technetium-99m is the radionuclide of choice in 7585% of cases. The development of X-rays during the past 50 years outgrew understanding of the consequences of direct radiation. X-rays were used in shoe shops to visualize the fit of shoes and to provide entertainment for over-active children while Mum chose her purchase. Whole-body X-ray examinations were made far too frequently -- at each diagnostic visit. Dental X-ray machines were equipped with wide-angle applicators rather than specific beams. Protective lead skirts and covers were carelessly used on patients and X-ray machine operators themselves were subject to dangerous levels of background radiation. The development of medical uses of radiation and isotopes has, therefore, required a parallel investigation of the consequences of over exposure and the development of regulation for the use of x-ray diagnosis.

Global visions and dreams 221

Therapeutic tools include direct internal and external radiation by radio-isotopes of various types (kinds, activity levels, half-lives), as well as direct radiation. The use of radiotherapy has the advantage, over chemotherapy, of being specific to the cancer or tumor involved -- being applied directly to the site of the cancer and, thereby, doing less damage to healthy tissue. Direct radiation is also used to induce beneficial biochemical reactions in patients (Reference 4). Radiation sterilization of medical equipment is also in use. While laser (and maser) technology is sometimes classed as being visible-spectrum radiation technology, it is essentially nuclear. Lasers are used in surgery, particularly optical surgery. Nuclear batteries based on thermoelectric conversion and containing promethium-147 and plutonium-238 have been used as micro-watt power sources for pacemakers. A larger plutonium-238 version has been proposed for use in an artificial heart (Reference 5).

Radioisotope sources are used in a variety of manufacturing processes to provide information, to provide quality control of processes, and to create new material properties. The principle applications are based either on penetration and scattering, or the use of tracers. Calculation of the transmission versus the absorption of radiation allows the user to calculate densities of material and fluids non-invasively. A determination of the thickness of metal pieces, such as turbine vanes, can be used to control quality of the manufacturing processes. Measurements of steam quality are used as part of the control function for steam injection into older wells for residual oil recovery and in well logging. The use of tracers in process and manufacturing control is also a well-established technique. Wear studies can be performed using radioactive tagged tool bits or piston rings. Tracers used in piping systems can be measured to calculate flow rates or to determine leaks in buried portions of pipe. A good way of determining whether mixing is complete is through the use of tracers in liquids -- when random samples show the same radioactive level then mixing is complete (Reference 6). The irradiation of certain materials can transform their inherent hardness, tensile strength, density, and other properties. This is particularly useful for an ever growing list of practical synthetic materials and plastics. Electron-beam irradiation of wire insulated by polyethylene or polyvinyl chloride upgrades the insulation properties at higher temperatures. Polyethylene can be highly cross-linked by irradiation when heated above its melting point -- if stretched it will retain the stretched configuration when cooled for shrink-wrapping a variety of products. Automobile dashboards are coated with a paint that is ‘cold- cured’ by electron bombardment -- a variety of automobile parts are treated thus, replacing one that involved long-heating ovens and release of volatile paint components to the atmosphere (Reference 7). Furniture is often treated in a similar fashion. These uses are possible only because of parallel developments in the field of synthetic materials.

and Food

Small levels of irradiation are used to sterilize insects while leaving other capabilities unchanged. Thus, it is possible to sterilize the males of certain undesirable pests resulting in their long term eradication through sterile procreation. These techniques have been applied widely across the world, particularly in Africa, resulting in large improvements in agricultural production. Such techniques also replace the undesirable use of chemical pesticides. Irradiation techniques are also used in the development of new strains of plants -- new and virus resistant grains -- which have better growth and yield patterns in different locations of the world. These applications have also lead to large improvements in agricultural production. Sterilization of food by irradiation replaces the traditional use of temperature extremes -- cold and hot -- and extreme drying techniques, which allow food to be stored w&rout viral decay. The traditional methods in manv cases had the effect of chaneine the form and taste of the foods while irradiation (which does not make the food radioactive) leaves& food unchanged for the consumer, other than- being sterilized. The capability of providing for long-term food storage without decay contributes to the world’s ability to transport food long distances and to provide food to nations in need (Reference 8). Gamma irradiation in doses ranging from 0.05 to 71 kilogray is used to produce a variety of beneficial effects: sterilization at the higher doses; a reduction in insects and micro-organisms in spices; a delay in

228 J. Graham

spoilage by reducing bacteria and parasites in hesh meats; extending shelf life by delaying mold growth, preventing insects from reproducing in grains; delaying ripening of fruits; inhibiting sprouting of root vegetables; and changing some physical characteristics such as rehydration times and bulk in breads (Reference 8).

General Cv .

The consumer is generally unaware of the use of isotopic sources in the manufacture of materials in common use within the home. Examples include those processes already discussed above -- shrink wrapping being the most common. Other uses include jewelry, the kitchen, and in entertainment. Natural amethysts are usually given their rich distinctive color by firing in charcoal-fueled kilns close to their source of origin, This has been done since their gem-value was first discovered. Presently, better color quality is maintained by careful irradiation of the raw stones either in a reactor or by exposure to accelerator radiation sources. Other gems besides amethyst are also treated in this manner. One of the more common kitchen (and office) appliances today is the microwave oven that has been in use in developed countries for some 15 years. Microwaving food has the advantage of being very rapid and energy efficient while cooking the food internally. Microwave cooking is now combined with convective cooking to provide a spectrum of culinary options. Lasers are used to cut decorative objects, to write and read CDs, and in both these cases to provide enjoyment and entertainment. Nuclear batteries have been produced on the basis of thermo-electric conversion using heat produced by betas from strontium-90 on their absorption in a converter. These batteries have been put in use to power buoys and remote Arctic radio transmitters.

-al Research

Gamma-ray telescopic investigation of the universe’s cosmic fields is allowing great strides to be made in the field of astronomy which exceed the study of visible radiation. Astronomical devices are powered by radionuclides.

Space Research

Nuclear powered rocket planes and space craft, using minimally shielded small reactors, have been designed and tested over the past twenty years. They have not been used because of institutional problems with the recovery of such vehicles either during operation, at the end of their useful life, or after mal-operation. However, they are practical. On the other hand, radioisotope- and radionuclide-powered space vehicles and experiments have been used for some time for a wider range of space tools and experiments than would be possible with the use of diffuse solar power and its storage (for the dark side of planetary travel).

&,lo.gical Research

Radioactively labeled molecules have extensive uses as tracers in biological research -- determining the migration of environmental species along bio-chemical pathways; investigating immunology by determining the transmission of materials within animal bodies; and investigating the break-down of pesticides. Each use requires the careful matching of isotopic type (kind, activity, and half-life) for each specific investigation.

FUTURE RADIATION AND SOURCE APPLICATIONS Two fundamental concepts must be addressed in making future predictions: the rate of growth of new ideas that lead to technological advances and the importance of parallel advances in other fields.


Growth of Ideas.

Growth of ideas in an active science and technology should be considered as exponential. In the next fifty years, the number of new applications and the number of advances in older techniques will grow at a scale of progress similar to that of the past fifty years ‘multiplied’ by a similar exponential factor, given stimulation. Wherever one places a reference point on an exponentially rising curve, that part of the curve to the left (history) is relatively flat while that part of the curve to the right (the future) is rising much faster (see diagram below). Thus, knowing what has occurred in the past 50 years is a poor predictor of what will happen in the next. If ideas grew linearly, history would be a valid forecast of the future, but with exponential growth anything is possible! In truth, it is easy to project that in the next 50- vears there could be more growth in develoDiW2 fields, such as nuclear applications of radioisotopes, than bf all prior history, not just”the last 50.

VISION Probable Growth

50 years 100 yr?aXs

Looking at the past fifty years’ changes from today’s vantage point and translating them forward results in a great danger of predicting relatively small changes. One should be looking at the nex: fifty years from an equivalent vantage point of a person making a forward guess in 1946. The vision is very different looking forward in isolation, rather than doing so with the benefit of hindsight. A person in 1946, whose understanding of the state-of-the-art was the cockpit of an airplane and basic tube-radio communication -- would have been crazy (and deemed crazy) to have been able to guess what might happen in the next fifty years -- to have visualized a population confined to the home, watching televised game shows and soap operas! Thus, a 50-year vision is more than simply predicting new applications within presently possible bounds. It requires enormous leaps of the imagination and credibility . . isotopic-powered leisure goods, transmutation and transfer of organic cells as data-fields within an energy beam . . . Crazy! RI ght?

s m Ad!m Fields.

Advances in nuclear science and technology will result from, and within, growth and change in other disciplines and fields. It wasn’t so much, in 1944, what the airplane alone might be able to do, but what it would be able to do once you had the right materials to fly lighter planes in extreme conditions; once you were able to derive a whole new engine mechanism (the jet); once you were able to pressurize. the cabin; once you were able to control navigation through satellites; once you were able to combine the airplane with the rocket; and so on. Advances in any field required advances in adjacent fields to make real progress. Every science expands within an expanding world -- CD-ROM information processes would not be possible without the invention of the laser to produce and read the disc; space exploration was dependent upon advances in lightweight and radiation-immune materials, and even upon advances in human physiology. Thus to produce a true 50-year vision in a technology one needs to develop a whole world of growing interactive technologies. One needs to think of parallel technologies that do not yet exist. Very often it is a parallel scientific advance that inspires change but more often than not, it is a social condition that makes change imperative.

in medicine, advances may truly stress on preserving the aged the

J. Graham

come from medical R&D but if our social mores didn’t pay great direction of R&D might be different since more attention will be

paid to extreme measures.. in exploration, advances, including much nuclear development, came because of international comnetition. This was esneciallv true in the cold war era as the USSR and U.S. entered outer soace -- the r&e to the Moon -- it-saved ‘open warfare;

I

in the electronic world, advances have arisen because of the international market and resulting competition to produce leisure items as the work week decreases (Reference 9). in the age of calculations, we are being dragged forward by leisure time developments too -- the same ideas and programming concepts that produce the next Nintendo advance also contribute technical computing capability; in the information age, the entertainment industry is again the growth leader -- this being also fueled by greater leisure time from the reduced work week.

Thus, vision restricted to a single discipline is too focused for any form of reality. It requires an inter- disciplinary eye, including social and political change, to produce a valid vision. One cannot have a vision in one discipline and then expect to add it to visions in other disciplines -- they are inextricably intertwined. The following section attempts to provide leaps of imagination as inspiration to those researchers bound by the limits of presently funded programs.

PROSPECTIVE APPLICATIONS IN VARIOUS FIELDS

As discussed above, the vision depends, first, on exponential growth in ideas; second on growth in other fields beyond nuclear science and technology; and finally on the social and political changes that will occur during the coming 50 years. External changes provide the technology drivers. It is assumed that the world population will continue to grow largely unchecked other than by natural disasters, local conflicts, and local birth control measures, principally in developing areas. The only significant check on population growth is assumed to be the occurrence of new virii such as HIV. It is assumed, therefore, that newly developing nations will provide the pressure to distribute wealth (food, technology, information, resources) globally. It is assumed, rightly or wrongly, that no global conflict will occur in the next fifty years that destroys growth, and that regional conflicts encourage growth in spin-off technologies through the development of new offensive weaponry. Most importantly, it is assumed that a Unified Field Theory has been developed which combines the best of the Theories of General Relativity and Quantum Mechanics. The fast macro-theory gave us nuclear energy and the latter micro-theory gave us microelectronics. Unified Field Theory has the potential to provide far more advancement. (Reference 10) It is assumed that most technical development arises in the developed consumer markets and, therefore, a new recognition of sustainable development and an increased proportion of leisure time will provide two development drivers. It is also assumed that major new consumer markets (and new development initiatives) will be limited to the western Pacific Rim (China, Southeast Asia), where the need for improvements in health, sanitation, and energy, provide the development drivers. Projections are not intended to be comprehensive but to indicate possibilities. Further, as visions must have definition the following projections are written in the present tense despite the fact that what follows is, today, science fiction. On to the year 2050.

Leadership in the development of nuclear power has shifted from the United States to the Western Pacific Rim with Japan and China taking major roles in the use of nuclear power generated electricity and in the development of new systems. 40% of the world’s electrical generation needs are now being supplied by nuclear power systems.


In China, over 200,Wl MWe of installed capacity has radically altered the industrial capacity of the nation and, in turn, the standard of living of its population. Chinese nuclear industrial capability have turned to offering new designs to customers throughout south-west Asia: designs with increased modularity, appropriate safety systems, and integrated fuel cycles based on local reprocessing. In Japan, the plutonium cycle is fully developed and reprocessing is one element in a fuel cycle which includes fast reactors, thermal systems, actinide burners, and an integrated waste management component. Co-located facilities in both programs have reduced prior proliferation concerns to a manageable issue. The ability to project large quantities of power to under-developed nations has lead the developed nations to construct power portals for satellite transmission to distant receptors. North and central African nations are now receiving electric power supplies generated in both China and Japan In Europe and the Americas, programs previously in abeyance are now restarting with a new recognition by the politicians that nuclear power is a rational requirement of sustainable development. New designs are being licensed from Chinese suppliers. These programs have become economic since &e licensing process has been so radically shortened. This was possible because tlie populace has been shown, with help from the media, that radiation, far from being a fearful unknown quantity is genuinely beneficial in low doses. The program to develop usable power supplies from the fusion of lighter elements has recently been reorganized following the breakthrough in the development of a Grand Unified Field Theory. It had become apparent that the 20th century brute force approach of higher temperatures and closer confinements was a no-return program, and that new catalyzed approaches bore greater promise. Following the recent laboratory scale success the program is being revitalized on an international scale. It is planned that fusion scientific endeavors will give way to engineering development within the next ten years. This work is centered in the Russian international fusion center.

Medical.

Extensive studies of low level radiation effects over the past decades have shown that there is a threshold effect for injurious effects. Moreover, there is a cross-over and very low doses have been shown to be beneficial. Thus, preventive medicine includes the application of regular doses of low-level radiation. This therapy is administered at home along with the regular fitness program. Super-shielding materials have made a home radioactive source part of all fitness facilities in much the same manne:r as tanning devices were available in the mid-‘80’s. The lack of public acceptance of things nuclear fifty years ago seems incredible in today’s world. Radiotherapy will join preventive medicine. With a much older population and lower rates of heart disease, pre-emergent cancer therapy will be the major life extender by making cancer-prone tissues more robust. Radiotherapy will be available the world over, using treatment that is both cancer-type and location specific. The range of sources and isotopes produced by the National Isotopic Production Agency (NIPA), including those specifically manufactured by the artificial fission of mid-table elements, will be very large. Radiotherapy for the treatment of pre-emergent cancers will be developed in parallel to chemotherapy, to the extent that the two therapies will be collaborative rather than being supplemental and reactive as they are now. Imaging techniques, X-ray, positron emission tomography (PET), and magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), have all become regularly applied in the physicians’ offices. Their nuclear hardware, allows very specific imaging in real time from all angles, their electronic software and hardware, borrowing heavily from earlier computer games, allows instant imaging to be analyzed automatically and at cursor speed to be redirected.

Manufact

Isotopically-powered devices and sources require shielding. Shielding for sources was, in the past, massive -- either because of the shielding density (lead) or its bulk (hydrogenous material). It was an inhibitor to the use of most isotopic-powered applications. Therefore, the development of a shielding material providing protection within a few millimeter’s thickness was a natural outcome of the desire to use portable power devices other than solid batteries of limited duration. This super-shielding material has been developed partly through bio-engineering and, partly, through the continued development of synthetic fabrics.

232 J. Graham

lrradiation is now more extensively used in the treatment of almost all synthetic materials and plastized materials -- homes are built largely with irradiation hardened plastic beams and boards in place of wooden members. Wood is reserved for truly luxury applications.

Food

Radionuclide-powered equipment has been in use for some time because of the development of super- shielding materials. Thus, agricultural machinery has undergone great changes in the past decades -- whereas trial use of robotic machines failed with gasoline fueled vehicles, the use of robotic machines with nuclear-fueled vehicles has resulted in three crops per growing season in many parts of the world. The sterilization of food, which had once generated opposition, is now the preferred system of foodstuff protection. The use of heat or ice is now considered energy-wasteful and is almost never used, except in the poorest of regions.

The electronic industry did away with communication cords between computers, printers, and other linking components of the electronic network, before the end of the 20th century. The electrical and information industries have followed suit and done away with household power and communication cords -- substituting energy and data beam projection. Most homes and industries are ‘energized’ by supplies from remote electrical generators. Household nuclear electrical-generators, fueled by radionuclides and based on direct conversion, are available for household heat pumps. They have presently been demonstrated but further use and development is needed to encourage their widespread use and the consequent reduction in costs. Pocket nuclide-powered devices have been in use for some time because of the development of super- shielding materials. These have replaced solid batteries of very limited duration.

The recently developed Unified Field Theory has given new insights into nuclear properties and the fine detail of force-field behavior at the low end of the Periodic Table. This has changed the international approach to fusion energy development from brute force to more subtle preparation of the ingredients of fusion. Force fields have been shown to be fundamentally different for low atomic-weight species than for heavier elements -- especially in the final stages of fusion. Since the new understanding has at last resulted in a net increase of energy from fusion, the potential for fusion electrical generation has gained further credibility. However, the potential date for useful power generation has retreated because of the basic non-nuclear engineering challenges involved. Nuclear irradiation continues to be a basic scientific tool -- on the order of the surgeon’s scalpel -- since it can now be finely directed, applied for a specific time, and with a given activity level. Much use is made of irradiation stress in the study of material aging and in the development of memory-metals of all types. Research is being conducted into the possibility of using radioactive micro-implants as pain-killing background stressors, in place of less effective white-noise sound, for use in extreme cases of cancer, particularly for that which has spread to the bones.

Super-shielding materials has made nuclear propulsion a new option for manned space vehicles as well as for unmanned missions. Currently, a mix of methods is used which includes the older mechanical systems of expanding solar panels for the less costly missions that do not require high reliability.


With large increases in city population in developing nations, both stationary and transportable nuclear power systems are being considered -- the former for mass transport systems, and the I(ltter for the limited car traffic that is allowed.

Biology.

In addition to the well-established use of labeled molecule tracers, extensive use is made of irradiation induced genetic conversions and cloning in which irradiation is used in combination with chemical separations as a specific-stress inducer.

Leisure and SDO~

In the ‘80’s, an adult car driver could process information, while traveling at 80 miles per hour, from a myriad of sources -- passing signs, oncoming and side-road traffic, lights and reflections, rear- and front- view mirror scenes, engine sounds, dashboard signals, road surface information -- to make instant driving and steering decisions, all while listening to a radio station over the conversation of passengers. This ability to process information is a learned ability. Sixty years before, even driving on an empty road at 4 miles per hour was terrifyingly fast for any decision to be taken. In the ‘80’s it was only the youngsters who were proficient in placing a computer cursor instantaneously where it is required on the Nintendo screen. Now, this ability is world-wide -- manipulative manual skills have replaced locomotive skills. Thus, portable isotopic-powered virtual computer-based games have replaced 70% of all leisure activities. These games, more than anything else, have given rise to the public acceptance of nuclear sources of energy.

. Other Potential fields of Appllcatron,

Just as households were freed from the bonds of its hard-wired appliances before the end of the 20th- century, so too, use of national power grids have almost disappeared in favor of line-less power projection. On a national and global scale there is no need to site power producers on the basis of transmission efficiency. Energy transfer by satellite around the world is common practice. Thus, large nuclear generating plants are now sited in areas that are already subject to institutional regulatory and safety controls, while the energy is beamed for use to small receiving-facilities in developing nations.

CONCLUSION

Can a valid 50-Year Visionary prediction of the future be developed? The Club of Rome can do no better than change their assumptions each decade as their successive forecasts are shown to be wrong. However, the act of trying to form a ‘vision’ is valuable in its own right . . . it provides forward planning to guide the pathway of the next 5-year effort. Moreover, if one accepts the premise that growth in any technology depends on growth in adjacent technologies, then the act of trying to establish a ‘vision’ must also force one to look around corners at changes in adjacent fields. No 50-year vision can possibly be correct; even five years is almost impossible. At best, a few persons of remarkably perceptive and unrestrained foresight have existed who have had the abilit:y to make remarkable predictions. The author does not pretend to emulate Jules Verne. However, the foregoing predictions are offered as stimulation to the imagination. Often, knowing a potential destination can result in the discovery of the path.

234 J. Graham

REFERENCES

I Bydder G. M. and Steiner R. E., (1986) p __ a New D&n& Technique.” Oxford Companion to Medicine: Vol. II N-Z, page 870, Oxford University Press.

2 Laurence Jeremy, (1993) “Thinking The London Times, Home News, page 7, Friday, September 24.

3 Wagner H. N., (1986) “Nuclmg 9, __ a New WC Teem Oxford Companion to Medicine: Vol. II N-Z, page 874, Oxford University Press.

. . 4 Silverman Joseph, The Macmillan Encyclopedia of Science, mactivity and Rti . . &&&mC page 121.

5 Ibid page 122.

6 Ibid page 121.

7 Ibid page 122.

8 med Foods. A Report by the American Council on Science and Health, Third Edition, December 1988.

9 U.S.: 40 hours, Canada: 37.5 hours, U.K.: 35 hours, and France and Germany seek to move towards 32 hours over just four days.

10 HawkingStephen, (1988) “A Brief_ Bantam Books.

Documents

Global visions and dreams