AN INTER-INSTITUTIONAL EU PROJECT

#espas18

Programme

SHAPING THE FUTURE IN A FAST-CHANGING WORLD

GLOBAL TRENDS TO 2030

European Commission, Berlaymont, 5th Floor Open Space, Rue de la Loi 200, Brussels

28/11/ 2018

József Antall Building Room 2Q2, Rue de Trèves 1A 1000 Brussels

29/11/ 2018

The European Strategy and Policy Analysis System (ESPAS) is an inter-institutional collaboration among the European Parliament, the Council of the EU, the European Commission and the European External Action Service, with the support of the European Economic and Social Committee, the Committee of the Regions and the European Investment Bank. It monitors global trends and offers strategic foresight to the EU’s decision-makers.

Convening under the theme Global Trends to 2030: Shaping the Future in a Fast-Changing World, this two-day event will focus on the major social, economic, technological and geopolitical trends that will shape Europe and the world over the coming decade.

This year’s conference is dedicated to generating fresh insights for the next edition of the ESPAS Global Trends to 2030 Report, which will be published in spring 2019.

Day one of the conference – devoted to the question of ‘Future of Democracy and Governance’ – will be hosted by the European Political Strategy Centre, the European Commission’s in-house think tank, at its headquarters, the Berlaymont. Focusing on key trends and drivers of change shaping the future of Europe and the world, the programme will examine the state of democracy globally. It will shed light on pressing contemporary issues, such as: whether technology will remain at the service of democracy or instead empower authoritarian regimes; what the future holds for think tanks and expertise in a world of disinformation; the likelihood of a new ‘Clash of Civilisations;’ and how to make liberal democracies more resilient for the future.

Day two will be devoted to ‘The Future of Economics, Society and Global Power.’ It will take place in the European Parliament, hosted by its own internal think tank, the European Parliamentary Research Service. Governance will be a central focus, with speakers delving into issues such as: What steps are needed at global level to mitigate humankind’s impact on our planet? How can we rebalance economic and social policy to advance both equity and convergence? How should the EU respond to shifts in international power? Other sessions will examine how the humanities can become more, rather than less, important as technology progresses, and how strategic foresight can enhance decision-making. The conference will end with a look at the role played by ESPAS thus far and in the coming years.

Since its first edition in 2015, the ESPAS Annual Conference has explored a broad range of topics, drawing insights from the ESPAS report Global Trends to 2030: Can the EU Meet the Challenges Ahead? The 2015 conference Global Trends to 2030: The Economic and Technological Revolution explored the challenges and opportunities that the digital revolution will create for economies and societies. The 2016 event Global Trends to 2030: Society and Governance discussed innovations in the world of work and welfare, public services and governance, with a particular focus on inequalities, trust, sustainable growth and inclusive prosperity. The 2017 edition Global Trends to 2030: The Making of a New Geopolitical Order? zoomed in on key trends shaping geopolitics and the multilateral order, highlighting the importance of strategic foresight in policy- and decision-making.

3

Registration and Welcome Coffee

WELCOMING REMARKS • Ann Mettler, Head, European Political Strategy Centre and

Chair, European Strategy and Policy Analysis System• Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament

SETTING THE SCENEModerator: Ann Mettler, Head, European Political Strategy Centre and Chair, European Strategy and Policy Analysis System

European Democracy: How Can We Make It Future-Proof?A Conversation with: Frans Timmermans, First Vice-President of the European Commission

‘Into the Future: Has the West Lost It?’Video Message by:Kishore Mahbubani, Senior Advisor (University & Global Relations); Professor in the Practice of Public Policy, National University of Singapore

Autocrats, Plutocrats and Datacrats: Are Democracy and Governance as We Know Them Doomed?Keynote:Daniel W. Drezner, Author; Professor of International Politics, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Tufts UniversityDaniel W. Drezner is a Professor of International Politics at the Fletcher School, a prolific writer and a contributor to the Washington Post. His latest book, The Ideas Industry: How Pessimists, Partisans, and Plutocrats are Transforming the Marketplace of Ideas, was published in 2017.

It’s Politics, Stupid: Dealing With Risk in a Volatile WorldGuest Speakers:• Antonio Barroso, Managing Director, Teneo• Benedetta Berti, Head, Policy Planning, Office of the Secretary-General, NATO• Pei Shan Lim, Head, Centre for Strategic Futures, Singapore• John D. Podesta, Founder, Center for American Progress

Coffee Break

08h00-09h00

09h00-09h15

09h15-09h45

09h45-09h50

09h50-10h20

11h00-11h30

10h20-11h00

The Future of Democracy and Governance

European Commission, Berlaymont

28/11/ 2018

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4

GLOBAL TRENDS IN FOCUSOutlook(s) to 2030: Trends and Drivers that Will Shape our Future Moderator: Florence Gaub, Deputy Director, European Union Institute for Security Studies

Special guests:• Elissa Golberg, Assistant Deputy Minister for Strategic Policy, Department of

Global Affairs, Canada• E. Gyimah-Boadi, Executive Director and Co-Founder, Afrobarometer; Founder and

former Executive Director, CDD-Ghana• Annette Idler, Director of Studies, Changing Character of War Centre,

Oxford University• Casper Klynge, Tech Ambassador, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Denmark• Erin Sikorsky, Deputy Director, Strategic Futures Group, National Intelligence Council

ESPAS-Talk: Do You Think the World is In Bad Shape? Well, Think AgainAnna Rosling Rönnlund, Vice-President, Gapminder Anna Rosling Rönnlund founded Gapminder, a Fact-Tank, together with Hans Rosling and Ola Rosling. Gapminder’s mission is to fight ignorance, providing a fact-based worldview. Anna is co-author of best-selling book Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World-and Why Things Are Better Than You Think.

Networking Lunch (3rd floor open space)

VISIONING Moderator: Ann Mettler, Head, European Political Strategy Centre andChair, European Strategy and Policy Analysis System

Liberal Democracy: Is There a Blueprint for the Future?Introduced by: Carlos Moedas, European Commissioner for Research, Science and Innovation

Special Guest: Radosław Sikorski, Senior Fellow, The Minda de Gunzburg Center for European Studies, Harvard University.

SCANNING THE HORIZON Moderator: Paweł Świeboda, Deputy Head of European Political Strategy Centre

Great Minds Think Unlike: The Future of Evidence, Expertise and Think TanksFutures Conversation with:• Anthony Gooch, Director, Public Affairs and Communications, Organisation for

Economic Co-operation and Development• Jakub Janda, Director, European Values Think-Tank; Head, Kremlin Watch Program• Antonella Mei-Pochtler, Head, Strategy Unit - Think Austria, Federal Chancellery• Kristel Van der Elst, Director-General, Policy Horizons Canada

13h00-14h00

14h00-14h45

14h45-15h35

12h40-13h00

11h30-12h40

5

Back to the Future: A New Clash of Civilisations?Futures Conversation with:• Tarek Osman, Author and Broadcaster• Zuzanna Radzik, Theologian; Executive Board Member, Forum for Dialogue, Poland• Daniel Schwammenthal, Director, AJC Transatlantic Institute

Coffee Break

FROM HINDSIGHT TO FORESIGHTModerator: Ann Mettler, Head, European Political Strategy Centre and Chair, European Strategy and Policy Analysis System

The ‘Elephants’ in the China Shop: Did We Get It Wrong? How can We Fix It?Guest speakers:• Daniel H. Rosen, Founding Partner, Rhodium Group • Kristin Shi-Kupfer, Director, Research Area on Politics, Society and Media,

Mercator Institute for China Studies• Jie (Cherry) Yu, Research Fellow on China, the Royal Institute of International

Affairs, Chatham House

ESPAS-Talk: Intellectuals in Exile: A Metaphor of the Future?Alev Scott, Author and JournalistAlev Scott is a British-Turkish journalist and writer. She contributes regularly to the Financial Times, The Guardian and Politico. In a recent FT piece The agonies of writing from exile, she explores the role of writers banished from their countries. Her latest book, Ottoman Odyssey: Travels through a Lost Empire, was published in October 2018.

ESPAS YOUNG TALENT NETWORK: Insights and TakeawaysFacilitators:Joshua Polchar and Julia Staudt, Policy Analysts, Strategic Foresight Unit, OECD General Secretariat

Cocktail Reception

17h40-18h00

18h00-18h15

18h15-19h00

16h50-17h40

15h35-16h20

16h20-16h50

6

Registration and Welcome Coffee

WELCOMING REMARKS• Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament• Ann Mettler, Head, European Political Strategy Centre and Chair,

European Strategy and Policy Analysis System

SETTING THE SCENEThinking about the future: ESPAS and Global Trends to 2030Ramón Valcárcel Siso, MEP, Vice-President, European Parliament

Keynote Discussion

Global governance in the Anthropocene age: Potential and limitationsProfessor (Lord) Martin Rees, Cosmologist and astrophysicist; UK Astronomer Royal; Director, Centre for the Study of Existential Risk, Cambridge University; Author of “On the Future: Prospects for Humanity” (2018)

Introduced by Eva Kaili, MEP, Chair, EP Panel for the Future of Science and Technology (STOA)

Networking Break

ECONOMY AND SOCIETY IN 2030Panel Discussion Chair: Jiří Buriánek, Secretary-General, European Committee of the Regions

Panellists:• Mikołaj Dowgielewicz, Permanent Representative, European Investment Bank

(EIB), Brussels• Heather Grabbe, Director, Open Society European Policy Institute• Daniel Gros, Director, Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS)• Bruce Stokes, Director, Global Economic Attitudes, PEW Research Center

Keynote Discussion

The future of the social sciences and their contribution to policy-makingProfessor Brigid Laffan, Director, Robert Schuman Centre for Advanced Studies, European University Institute (EUI)

Introduced by: Anthony Teasdale, Director-General, European Parliamentary Research Service (EPRS)

The Future of Economics, Society and Global Power

European ParliamentJózsef Antall Building

29/11/ 2018

08h30-09h00

09h10-09h30

09h30-10h00

10h00-10h45

10h45-11h00

11h00-12h15

12h15-13h00

7

Lunch Break

GLOBAL POWER IN 2030Panel DiscussionChair: Giuseppe Iuliano, Head of International Policy Department, CISL; Member of the European Economic and Social Committee (EESC)

Panellists: • Bérénice Guyot-Réchard, Lecturer in 20th Century International History,

King's College London• Shada Islam, Director for Europe and Geopolitics, Friends of Europe• Nicolas Miailhe, Co-Founder and President, The Future Society• Maciej Popowski, Deputy Director-General, European Neighbourhood Policy and

Enlargement Negotiations, European Commission (EC)

Networking Break

ESPAS YOUNG TALENT NETWORKImagining 2030

FORESIGHT: THINKING ABOUT TOMORROW TODAYPanel DiscussionChair: Ann Mettler, Chair of ESPAS; Head, European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC), European Commission

Panellists:• Mathew Burrows, Director, Strategic Foresight Initiative, Atlantic Council• Florence Gaub, Deputy Director, European Union Institute for Security Studies (EUISS)• Pei Shan Lim, Head, Centre for Strategic Futures, Singapore• Catarina Tully, Co-founder, School of International Futures (SOIF)

ESPAS: WHAT HAVE WE DONE SO FAR?ESPAS foresight in perspective• Frank Debié, Deputy Head of Cabinet of the Secretary-General, European Parliament• Ricardo Borges de Castro, Advisor on Strategic Foresight, European Political

Strategy Centre (EPSC)

ESPAS: 2019 AND BEYONDConcluding sessionChair: James Elles, Honorary President, ESPAS; MEP 1984-2014

• Klaus Welle, Secretary-General, European Parliament• Jim Cloos, Deputy Director-General, Secretariat of the Council of the EU• Ann Mettler, Chair of ESPAS; Head, European Political Strategy Centre (EPSC),

European Commission

14h15-15h30

15h30-15h45

15h45-16h00

13h00-14h15

16h00-17h00

17h00-17h30

17h30-18h15

AN INTER-INSTITUTIONAL EU PROJECT

#espas18