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© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute
Global Technology Outlook 2004
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 2
Overview
Hardware Technology and Systems
Stochastic Analysis and OptimizationThe Emergence of People ProxiesPervasive ConnectivityLegislation and DataThe Architecture of Business
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 3
Global Technology Outlook“I think there is a world marketfor maybe five computers.”
Thomas Watson, chairman of IBM, 1943
“Computers in the future may weigh no more than 1.5 tons. ”
Popular Mechanics, 1949
“There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home. ”
Ken Olsen, founder of DEC, 1977
“640K ought to be enough for anybody. ”
Bill Gates, 1981
“Prediction is difficult, especially about the future”
Yogi Berra
4
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute
Hardware Technology and Systems
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 5
Base Technology OverviewFaster, Cheaper, Better !
Doubles every 12 month
Doubles ever 12 month (fiber), but access to home much less
CPUStorage
BandwidthDisplay
New Technologies
wired
wirelessOLED
NanoQuantum
fiber Broadband
Gadgets
Super-computing
Memory
Doubles ever 12 month
Doubles ever 18 month
More gadgets than PCs
250 Pixels per inch
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 6
Base Technology ImplicationsFaster, Cheaper, Better !
Already cheaper than storage on paper
High bandwidth access to consumers
homes and branches have the same bandwidth
CPUStorage
BandwidthDisplay
New Technologies
wired
wirelessOLED
NanoQuantum
fiber Broadband
Gadgets
Super-computing
Memory
Portable memory:1000 movies in my pocket
rent blockbuster (not a movie)
Approaching human capacity in 2015
Computing built into the social fabric
Pixels disappear even for those under 30
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 7
jvk1
$1000 Buys
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 20201E-6
1E-3
1E+0
1E+3
1E+6
1E+9
1E+12MechanicalElectro-mechanical
Vacuum tubeDiscrete transistor
Integrated circuit
Year
1,000,000,000,000
1,000,000,000
1,000,000
1,000
1
0.001
0.000001
Com
puta
tions
/ se
c
after Kurzweil, 1999 & Moravec, 1998
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 8
Supercomputing Roadmap
1995 2000 2005 2010 20151
10
100
1000
10000
100000
TeraFlops
Source: ASCI Roadmap www.llnl.gov/asci, IBMBrain ops/sec: Kurzweil 1999, The Ace of Spiritual MachinesMoravec 1998, www.transhumanist.com/volume1/moravec.htm
IBM BlueGene/L®*
Chip(2 processors)
Compute Card(2 chips, 2x1x1)
Node Board(32 chips, 4x4x2)
16 Compute Cards
System(64 cabinets, 64x32x32)
Cabinet(32 Node boards, 8x8x16)
2.8/5.6 GF/s4 MB
5.6/11.2 GF/s0.5 GB DDR
90/180 GF/s8 GB DDR
2.9/5.7 TF/s256 GB DDR
180/360 TF/s16 TB DDR
IBM Deep Blue®*
US Dept. Of Energy ASCI
IBM BlueGene/P
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 9
Active vs. Passive Power
0.010.110.001
0.01
0.1
1
10
100
1000
Gate Length (microns)
Active Power
Passive Power
1994 2004
Pow
er D
ensi
ty (W
/cm
2 )
Power components:Active power
• Gate leakage• Sub-threshold
leakage (source-drain leakage)
Passive power
10S Tox=11AGate Stack
Gate dielectric approaching a fundamental limit (a few atomic layers)
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 10
Apple G5 Heat Sink for IBM’s POWER Technology Air cooling is being pushed to its limitsBox design dictated by heat sink size Two heat sinks per desktop; one for the main board and another for the processor
Heat fins
Pipe brazed to fins
Cu heat pipe brazed to block
Cu heat sink
Forced air from fan
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 11
Lithography Roadmap
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
130
90
65
45
180Technology Generation
(nm)
2-Years / Generation
3-Years / Generation250
350
Year of Production
The lithography roadmap will slow from the accelerated pace of recent years, with an uncertain future
Options:193 nm immersion
45 nm nodeTechnical, tooling and contamination challenges
157 nm 45 & 32 nm nodesMany challenges --new tooling, resists, etc.
13 nm Extreme UV (EUV)
32 nm node & beyondTool availability uncertain
Source: International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 12
Future CMOS Roadmap: Less Predictive
CMOS device performance will continue to improve rapidly, but in new waysThe concept of a scaled technology as we know it will cease to existInnovation will continue to drive performance improvements, but timing will be harder to predict
19901990 19951995 20002000 20052005 20102010 20152015 20202020
Manufacturing Ramp StartManufacturing Ramp Start
NormalizedSemiconductor
Device Performance
Outlook
11
1010
100100
2000
2002
1995
2004
Molecular Scale Devices
High mobilityNew device structuresNew materials innovations
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 13
SiGe Moving into III-V Semiconductor Market
SiGe’s high performance and mature design tools can be tailored to millimeter wave design to capture III-V dominated applications
Emerging high volume markets
As silicon speeds increase, applications previously requiring III-V semiconductors become feasible
App
licat
ion
com
plex
ity (e
.g.,
Inte
grat
ion)
Frequency (GHz)20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 11010
Highest integration,Low voltage
Medium integration, higher speed
Highest speed, higher voltage,Low integration
SiGeBiPolar
CMOS
GaAsInP III-Vs
77 GHz DistronicAutomobile RADAR
$1,100/sensor
1-10 Gbps today40 Gbps published
10-40 Gbps SiGe Transceiver100 Gbps Published
New SiMarketSpace
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 14
Autonomic Storage - Collective Intelligent Bricks
1 Petabyte Conventional vs CIBusing 300-GB, 3.5" drives in both solutions(6 3.5" drives per brick)
http://www.almaden.ibm.com/StorageSystems/autonomic_storage/CIB/index.shtml
?i
Prototype Measurements3x3x3 bricks 8" edge length per brick324 drives 12, 2.5" 80GB drives per brick26TB(raw capacity)
Could store all the 18 million books of the Library of Congress (2002)
Conventional Collective Intelligent Bricks24 racks in 400sq ft
10x10x7 in 40 sq ft(1/10 of conventional floor space)
133kW Total Power
110 kW Total Power(20% less)
79-85 dB Noise 63-69 dB Noise(conversational voice ~ 70 dB)
Air-cooled Water-cooled
Almaden prototype
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 15
System Performance Stack Performance improvements will increasingly require system level optimization
Application
S/W Development Tools
Middleware
Operating System Hypervisor
SemiconductorsDevice, process, interconnect
PackageI/Os, wiring level cooling, …
Microprocessor Core
Microacrchitecture, logic circuits, design methodology
CacheCache levels,
granularity, latency, throughput
Interconnect
I/O
Compilers
SMP System StructureFabric, switches, busses, memory system, protocols, …
15%-20% CAGR,reducing
70%-80% CAGR,continuing
Uniprocessor approx.50% CAGR,reducing
Virtualization,cluster management,etc., increasing
16
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute
Stochastic Analysis and Optimization
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 17
Stochastic Analysis and Optimization
Data Availabilityand Acquisition
StochasticMethods
ComputationalAdvances
Complex system runtime characterization
Business process monitoring
Fabrication-line data
Data generated by computer experiments
Modeling and optimization methods
Exponential increases in processing power
ability to solve a broad range of business and technical problems
Resulting in:The ability to cope with underlying variability in a wide variety of design, analysis, and decision-making applications
Large reductions in runtimeMuch higher accuracyThe ability to address new problems
Stochastic analysis and optimization will dramatically improve our
Economic and environmental indicators
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 18
Example -- Driving to an Important Appointment
a b
c
e
f
d
10 (5)
15 (1)
15 (2)
20 (12) 10 (6)
25 (2)
Client
Goal: 95% probability
Airport
of arriving on time• a-b-d: 35 min. average• c-d: 30 min. average (map program result)• e-f: 40 min. average
Time Avail.
Routea-b-d ?
Routec-d ?
Routee-f ?
55 99% 97% 99.9%
Average timeVariation in time
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 19
Applications of SAO
Known (internal) UncertaintyTraditional Chip Design
Computer Architecture
Software Integration
Revenue Forecasting
Analytics for WBIStorage System Monitor
Pricing
Call Center Management
Asset Liability
Resource Allocation
Software Engineering
Static Web Hosting
Chip Yield Optimization
Business Processes
Simulation Design
Exog
enou
s (e
xter
nal)
Unc
erta
inty Clinical Trials
BCRS
Electrical Power Scheduling
Workforce Management
Statistical Chip Design
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 20
Example -- Electric Power Scheduling and TradingStochastic optimization methods to schedule generating units
New York
MaineMichigan
KentuckyVirginia
Iowa
Wisconsin
Illinois
Missouri
Oklahoma ArkansasTennessee
Spectrum of problems from low-level scheduling to high-level planning and power trading
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 21
Power Scheduling Analysis CapabilitiesDeregulation led to the need for new optimization methods
1977 1988 1991 1996 1998 2000Year
1000
Integer Variables per Minute of Execution Time
Stochastic
10
100
Varia
bles
per
Min
ute
Deterministic
1
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 22
Example -- Business Continuity and Recovery
23
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute
The Emergence of People Proxies
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 24
The Evolution of Organizational Productivity
A new wave of enterprise productivity will emerge in which we optimize business processes using information about people
19701960
Prod
uctiv
ity
1980 1990 2000 2010
TransactionsTransactions
2020
e-Businesse-Business
People & ProcessIntegration
People & ProcessIntegration
Business Process Integration
Business Process Integration
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 25
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Time
Ric
hnes
s/Sc
ope
of a
Per
son'
s A
ttrib
utes
UID Finger/Whois
LDAP
Work Flow ApplicationsPersonalization (Lexus Nexus)
Person Tag (Lotus Workspace)
Liberty
Passport
Pointcast
PeopleProxies
Web Services Federation
A History of Human Attribute Representation in Systems
AOL IMCRM
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 26
The Evolution of Integration of Information About People
1970’s 1985 2000
Sequential
Concurrent
Visually Coordinated
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 27
The Emergence of People Proxies
Richness/ScopeRichness/Scope
UID UNIX Finger/Whois
LDAP
Work FlowPersonalization
On Demand Workplace
LibertyPassport
Pointcast
PeopleProxies
WS-Federation
0
1.5
3
4.5
6
7.5
9
10.5
12
1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005 2015 2025
Time
Ric
hnes
s of
a P
erso
n's
Attr
ibut
es
FederationFederation
Unstructured
Structured
Single View of Access
IntegrationIntegration
1970’s 1985 2000
Mainframe Application
Windows Applications
Portal
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 28
Where Are Your Digital Attributes Today?Human Resources
Demographic Information Employment HistoryHealth Care Benefits/EnrollmentDental PlanAssessment HistoryAward HistorySalary HistoryPension AccountPersonal Business Commitments
Databases (team rooms)GroupsAccess Control Lists
CommunicationsE-mailInstant MessagingCellphone PhonebookPager
Miscellaneous ApplicationsLibraryPublication SystemPatent Tracking System
DesktopApplication PreferencesCookiesEmployee Portal Preferences
DirectoryBlue Pages (Persona)Blue People (Persona)Callup
Login ID’sWindowsVMIntranetEtc.
Security (site)Professional InterestsProject DescriptionsDepartmental Systems (MANY)Development Systems (MANY)Access Control Lists (MANY)
FinancialHCRA Account401KStock Purchase PlanStock OptionsLife InsuranceTravel Expense AccountsMiscellaneous Expense AccountsPosition HistoryTuition Reimbursement
Skills/Knowledge/TrainingTechnical SkillsBusiness SkillsPersonal SkillsEducation HistoryCareer GoalsManagement DevelopmentExecutive DevelopmentMentoring
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 29
I6
Enhanced W3 On Demand Workplace: On-the-Glass Integration
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 30
EnterpriseDatabases
Finance
Teamrooms
DevelopmentSystems
Skills
Human ResourcesCommunica-
tions
People Proxies Will Provide Federated Virtual Identity and Attribute Management
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 31
Stochastic Workforce Optimization
Automotive
Fi
Life Sciences
Telecommunications
nancial
Programming Workforce
External Hires, Outsourcing, Acquisitions
Departing (Resign, Retire, Layoffs)
IT ArchitectsIT Architects
Senior C++ ProgrammersSenior C++
ProgrammersSenior Java
ProgrammersSenior Java
Programmers
Entry Java Programmers
Entry Java Programmers
Entry C++ Programmers
Entry C++ Programmers
ServicesEngagement
ServicesEngagement
PipelinePipeline
Government
People Proxies
Skill types, levelsLocationDomain expertiseCurrent engagements
New stochastic methods to optimize workforce
Meet contractual obligations at minimum costOptimize bidding given current workforceAdjust workforce skills
profile over time
32
© 2002 IBM Corporation
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute
Pervasive Connectivity
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 33
Affordable Applications Expand
1
MIP
S*
10
100
1,000
10,000
100,000
1,000,000
1 10 100 1,000MPU Price (US $)
20042009*
Wireless sensor
RF tag
Real-time speech recognition
Real-time Natural Language Understanding w/100M axioms
Real-time handwriting reco
Real-time videoscene detection
PDATV*
* Hypothetical examples,not predictions
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 34
So
The Pervasive Internet --- Medical Example
urce: Harbor Research 2003
MEDICALHospital
– Wireless Monitoring– ER (Equipment Tracking)– Mobile Point-of-Care
Doctor Office/Care Facility– Communication– Lab Facilities
Home– Point-of-Care monitoring
In Vivo Diagnostics– Implants– Smart Pills
Devices: Diagnostic Devices, PDAs, ImplanEquipment, Pumps, Monitors, etc.
ts, Surgical
IndustrialIndustrial RetailRetailConsumerConsumerBuildingsBuildings
The Pervasive InternetThe Pervasive Internet
Transpor-tation
Transpor-tation
Government/Security
Government/SecurityPowerPowerMedicalMedical
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 35
Wireless Sensors and RFID Tags
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Market Forecast (M$)
RFID Wireless sensors
Breakdown of RFID Market
Source: RFID from Venture Development Corp, Wireless sensor data from Frost & Sullivan
Wireless sensors and RFIDs growing rapidly, fueled by industry initiatives and government mandates
835.3
294.3264.9
1051.9
355.9316.8
1270.7
436.7
382.7
1513.4
525.5
463.4
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2002 2003 2004 2005
Transponders Readers Software Services
Venture Development Corp., 2000-06
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 36
Advanced Radio Technologies
Near Future
Far FutureSystem-on-Chip
MEMS BBDSP
AFE
Multi- or SingleStandard Radio(MSR or SSR)
Advanced Radio Technologies
Tomorrow
Source: IBM modified after Intel Source: IBM
MSR: Data Concentrator SSR-MSR: Control PointSSR: Sensor or Actuator
Link to Network Infrastructure
Meshed Sensor, RFID and Control Networks
Wireless capability will be incorporated into devices, appliances, sensors, etc. as “standard equipment”
Multi-standard radios (MSR) supporting all types of wireless computing platforms will enable anytime, anywhere connectionsLow power single-standard radios (SSR) will enable sensor networks
Emerging radio technologies will penetrate non-PC devices and accelerate pervasive connectivity
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 37
Personal Mobile Health Hub
Peekflow
InhalationRegistration
Body WeightActivity
Heart Rate
Blood Pressure
Glucose ECG MonitorTablet Dispensing
AuscultationInjection Registration
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 38
1 Billion Users, 1 Trillion Devices
Weather forecasting 1960s – weather shipsWeather forecasting 2000 – satellites, Doppler radar, balloon sondes, a myriad sensorsPlus:
• Super-computers• Validated thermodynamic models
Result: 7 day weather forecastsConsequences: Construction, farming, sports events . . .
Underwriting 2000 – static tables, historical dataUnderwriting 2005 – rule-based, real-time assessment, update from a myriad sensorsPlus:
• Super-computers Desktop computers• New statistics • Automated rule-discovery
E.g. Underwriting Profitability Analysis produced $2M/year benefit in 1US state from only 6 rulesResult: Better classification of risk groups, real-time assignment of risk to groupConsequences: More accurate premiums…
…a billion people and a trilliondevices – all interconnected.
IBM Research
Global Technology Outlook 2004 Do Not Distribute © 2004 IBM Corporation 39
Security and Privacy
Increased bandwidth and richer applications (e.g., VoIP) will lead to complexity, amplifying the vulnerability of the network
Location-based services are often viewed as privacy-invading technologies
New security and privacy policies will be required
Establishment of “trusted” devices, servers and gateways will be required to accommodate dynamic network infrastructure and roaming
Pervasive connectivity will increase security and privacy concerns, requiring new software and hardware solutions