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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 1
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
Global Supply, Demand and Prices of Edible Oils - - Outlook 2021
Presentation at the POC Event on March 24, 2021
Thomas Mielke, ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World,Global Market Research on Oilseeds, Oils and Meals
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
Company Profil and Services• ISTA Mielke GmbH – publisher of OIL WORLD - was founded in 1958 • ISTA = International STatistical Agricultural Information
• Leading private authority for global research and market analyses for oilseeds, oils & meals
• Independent, not involved in trading, unbiased information
• We provide a variety of reports - - the daily FLASH, the Weekly and updates from our huge statistical data base (monthly, quarterly and annual data) as well as the Oil World Annual (a 730-page compendium of world statistics), as described on www.oilworld.biz
• A Chinese report in Mandarin on oilseeds & products two times a week
• Individual customer support with conference call and extracts from our detailed data bank
• Take a free 3-week trial and contact [email protected]
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 2
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
3
January 2019 until 18 March 2021Jan19 Apr19 Jly19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jly20 Oct20 Jan21
708090
100110120130140150160170
the five-year average 2015-2019 = 100
Weekly Edible Oil Price Index
January 2019 until 18 March 2021Jan19 Apr19 Jly19 Oct19 Jan20 Apr20 Jly20 Oct20 Jan21
708090
100110120130140150160170
the five-year average 2015-2019 = 100
Weekly Oilmeal Price Index
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
Prices on 22 March 2021versus 3 Aug 2020 in US-$ per T :
- Arg soya oil, fob $ 1253 (vs. 782)- Black Sea sun oil $1575 (vs. 815)
- Indo. crude palmoil $ 1100 (vs. 685)- Palmkern oil, cif Rott $ 1480 (vs. 730)
- Soybeans, cif Rott. $ 582 (vs. 385)- Arg soya meal, fob $ 420 (vs. 338)
Where are we going from here?Bullish factors are to a large extent already discounted.
4
Soybeans Soyameal Soya oil Sun oil Palm oil Palmkernoil0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
3 Aug 2020 22 March 2021
from early Aug until March 2021
PRICES : Steep Increases in 7 Months
+24%
+93%
US-$ / T
+60%+61%
+51%
+103%
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 3
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
Palm oil prices rallied to a 9-year high
Record price spread to fossil fuels
Discretionary palm oil demand for energy almost zero
Monthly prices from Jan 2003 until 11 March 2021Ja03Ja04Ja05Ja06Ja07Ja08Ja09Ja10Ja11Ja12Ja13Ja14Ja15Ja16Ja17Ja18Ja19Ja20Ja21
0100200300400500600700800900
10001100120013001400
Crude mineral oil
Palm oil, crude
Monthly Prices of Palm Oil & Crude Mineral Oil (US-$/T)
5
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
6
Indonesian crude palm oil more than doubled from US $ 500 in May 2020 to US $ 1130 on 23 March 2021, a 9-year high
Palm oil use in biodiesel & HVO still high at 17.3 Mn T in 2020 (23% of total use)
In the 2020/21 season there is, for the first time, a simultaneous tightness of all the 6 major veg oils worldwide Daily prices from 1 July 2020 until 22 March 2021
Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja21 Feb Mar
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300Soya oil, fob, Argentina
Palm oil, crude, fob Indonesia
Daily Prices of 2 Oils (US-$/T)
5
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 4
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
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J/M16A/J
J/SO/D J/M17
A/JJ/S
O/DJ/M18A/J
J/SO/D J/M19
A/JJ/S
O/D J/M20A/J
J/SO/D
J/M21
A/JJ/S
O/D
-3-2,5
-2-1,5
-1-0,5
00,5
11,5
22,5
3Year-On-Year Changes
Quarterly World Palm Oil Output (Mn T)
20212020
2019
201820172016
1st bullish surprise:Lower than expected palm oil production in Jan/Sept 2020 and again in Oct/Dec 2020 and in early 2021. Falling stocks (despite corona-related consumption losses).
World palm oil stocks are currently at a multi-year low and represent only 15.6% of annual usage.
More info is available on www.oilworld.biz
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
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In 2020 palm oil accounted for 32% and soya oil for 25% of world production
Palm oil production has lost its growth momentum.
Next 5-10 years: palm oil growth to slow by 20-25%
Supply & demand changes of palm & soya oils are key price-determining factors for edible veg oil complex 99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18 20/21F
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
8017 OILS & FATS : World Production (Mn T)
Sun oil
Rape oil
Soya oil
Palm oil
9 Other oils4 Animal Fats
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 5
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
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O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21F-5-4-3-2-10123456789
10Annual Change (Mn T)
PALM OIL : World Production World production of palm oil likely to rebound by 3.2 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2020/21 (but not by as much as four years ago) with Indonesia +3.3 Mn, but Malaysia down 0.5 Mn T
Low opening stocks (-2.5 Mn T) will limit the supply growth to 0.7 Mn T
Only moderate price setback 2021.
Labour shortage (production losses) a major constraint.Rising investments in mechanisation likely in 2021 and 2022
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21F-3-2-10123456789
PALM OIL: Year-on-Year Change in World Consumption
Mn T
10
Prospects of only a moderate recovery in world palm oil supplies andconsumption will limit the price decline for the remainder of 2021
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 6
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
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Big Production Losses in Sunflower Complex
2nd bullish blow:
Drought in July/Sept 2020 severely damaged sunflowerseed crops in the Black Sea region
World sunseed output down 5.5 Mn T in 20/21in Russia down 2.1 Mnin Ukraine down 2.4 Mn
Lower oil content
World production of sun oil down even 3.0 Mn T in Oct/Sept 2020/21. Sun oil exports down 2.9 Mn T.
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
12
Skyrocketing sun oil prices trigger rationing of consumption
Demand shifts have been price-supportive for soya and palm oils
Big Production Losses in Sunflower Complex
Weekly prices from Oct 2019 until 19 March 2021Oct19 Ja20 Apr Jly Oct Ja21 Mar
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900Sun oil, fob Black Sea (Y1)
Prem./discounts (Y2)Soya oil, Arg., fob (Y1)
For nearest forward shipmentWeekly Prices of Sun Oil & Soya Oil (US-$/T)
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 7
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
00/01 01/02
02/03 03/04
04/05 05/06
06/07 07/08
08/09 09/10
10/11 11/12
12/1313/14
14/1515/16
16/1717/18
18/1919/20
20/21F
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
65
70World Production (Mn T) and Area (Mn ha)
RAPESEED & CANOLA
Production
Harvested Area
13
3rd Blow:Tightness in rape oil.
A declining trend in world production since the 2013/14 season
Rapeseed cultivation has lost attractiveness in the European Union and China
High import demand
But prospects point to a price-driven recovery in the years ahead
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
0 6/07 0 8/09 1 0/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 2 0/21
2 00
2 50
3 00
3 50
4 00
4 50
5 00
5 50
6 00
Disa ppe aranc eProdu ctio n
World Output & Consum ption of 10 O ilseeds, M n T4th blow in soybeans & oil
Within 5 months the global soybean balance turned from surplus to tightness.
Downward revisions of US, Indian, Argentine and Brazilian crops
Huge Chinese demand
Global production deficits - of 15 Mn T in 2019/20 - of 12 Mn T in 2020/21
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 8
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
75/76 80/81 85/86 90/91 95/96 00/01 05/06 10/11 15/16 20/210
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200Soybean Crop Trend Since 74/75 (Mn T)
U.S.A.
Argentina, Brazil & Paraguay
Detrimental weather, partly unusual dryness and partly excessive moisture have sharply reduced soybean crops in S.America
My S. Amer. crop estimates are 15 Mn T below potential with this year‘s area
My latest estimates in Mn T for early 2021: Brazil 131 (still too high?)Argentina 44 (too high?) Paraguay 9
15
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
16
Huge disposals in USA. Exports in Sep/Feb 54.5 Mn T or 87% of total (vs. 30.4 Mn)
In Sept 2021 stocks at 7-year low in the US and at 5-year low worldwide.
Word demand shift to S.America from March. What will China do?
Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb M ar Apr M ay Jun July Aug
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
20/21
estim ated exports19/20
U.S.A. : Monthly Exports of Soybeans (Mn T)
Daily futures from 1 Sep 2020 until 22 March 2021Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja21 Feb Mar
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500May 2021
Nov 2021
May and November 2021 positions
CBOT : Daily Soybean Futures (c/bu)
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 9
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Production deficit this season in the 2nd consecutive year
Soybean crushings up 10-11 Mn T
Stocks declining worldwide (5-year low)
On the demand side Chinese buying is key uncertainty to watch
SOYBEANS : World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )20/21F 19/20 18/19 17/18
Opening stocks 98.60 111.35 93.56 93.77
Production 354.49* 339.93 361.36 343.36
Total supply 453.09* 451.28 454.92 437.13
Crush 320.60* 310.00 302.00 302.86
Other use 43.90* 42.68 41.57 40.71
Ending stocks 88.59* 98.60 111.35 93.56 U.S.A. Aug 31 3.20* 14.28 24.74 11.92 Argentina Aug 31 31.80* 32.93* 32.90* 23.60* Brazil Aug 31 25.20* 24.42* 36.63* 35.62* Other countries 28.39* 26.97* 17.08* 22.42*
Stocks/usage 24.3% 28.0% 32.4% 27.2%
SOYBEANS : World Supply and Demand ( Mn T )20/21F 19/20 18/19 17/18
Opening stocks 98.60 111.35 93.56 93.77
Production 354.49* 339.93 361.36 343.36
Total supply 453.09* 451.28 454.92 437.13
Crush 320.60* 310.00 302.00 302.86
Other use 43.90* 42.68 41.57 40.71
Ending stocks 88.59* 98.60 111.35 93.56 U.S.A. Aug 31 3.20* 14.28 24.74 11.92 Argentina Aug 31 31.80* 32.93* 32.90* 23.60* Brazil Aug 31 25.20* 24.42* 36.63* 35.62* Other countries 28.39* 26.97* 17.08* 22.42*
Stocks/usage 24.3% 28.0% 32.4% 27.2%
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r 06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19F 20/21F
7090
110130150170190210230250270290
12 Oilmeals: World Production (Mn T)
Other 11 oilmeals
Soya meal
12/13 13/14 14/15 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21F-6-4-202468
1012141618
Soya meal
11 Other Meals
Change from Previous Season (in Mn T)
12 OILMEALS : World Production
Increasing Dependence on Soya Meal Worldwide
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17
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
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10/11 11/12
12/1313/14
14/1515/16
16/1717/18
18/1919/20
20/21F
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
Rest of world
China,P.R.
Change from Previous Season (in Mn T)
12 OILMEALS : World ConsumptionWe at Oil World anticipate a sharp increase in Chinese soybean crushings by 6.3 Mn T this season (vs 5.2 lyr)
The pork sector has recovered from the crisis caused by the African Swine Fever two years ago
But in Jan/March 2021 soya meal usage fell short of expectations. Rising meal stocks, lower meal prices and crush margins. Higher veg oil imports.
19
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20
Prices from 1 Oct 2018 until 19 March 2021Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep
280300320340360380400420440460480500520540
Weekly Prices of Soya Pellets, 47% Arg., fob (US-$/T)
2020/21
2019/20
2018/19
Soybean crushings are now increasingly driven by soya oil demand.
Seasonally rising South American crushings from March onward
Soya meal prices have come under pressure
Soybeans cannot solve an oil supply tightness without creating a surplus in soya meal
Concluding Statements
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
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21
Daily prices from 1 Sep 2020 until 22 March 2021Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja21 Feb Mar
700
850
1000
1150
1300
1450
1600
1750
(for nearest forward shipment in US-$/T)
Daily Prices of 2 Vegetable Oils
Soya oil, fob Arg.
Sun oil, fob Black Sea
Tight supplies and skyrockting prices of sunflower oil
Consumers switch to soya and palm oils
Soya oil and palm oil prices are being pulled up by sunflower oil tightness
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
22
Daily share from Sept 2020 until 22 March 2021
Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja21 Feb Mar282930313233343536373839404142
May 2021 position in % of total product value
CBOT : Daily Soya Oil Share
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 12
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23
For the first time, world consumption did not increase in 2019/20 (partly due to covid + lockdowns)
Vegetable oils stocks very low.(Exception is China)
Another production deficit in 2020/21, reducing stocks again
Concluding Statements
17 OILS & FATS : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) Forecast O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
20/21F 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17Op'g stocks . . . . . 30.92* 32.79 32.55 28.21 27.61
Production. . . . . 239.77* 235.49* 237.67 233.22 220.30 Annual change +1.8% -0.8% +1.9% +5.9% +6.9%
Imports . . . . . . . . 95.62* 96.22* 97.04 89.31 88.69Exports . . . . . . . . 95.37* 99.39* 97.46 90.28 89.47
Consumption. . . 240.28* 237.20* 237.02 227.89 218.92 Annual change. +1.3% +0.1% +4.0% +4.1% +3.3%
End stocks . . . . . 30.66* 30.92* 32.79 32.55 28.21
Stocks/usage . . . 12.8% 13.0% 13.8% 14.3% 12.9%
17 OILS & FATS : World Supply & Demand ( Mn T ) Forecast O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r
20/21F 19/20 18/19 17/18 16/17Op'g stocks . . . . . 30.92* 32.79 32.55 28.21 27.61
Production. . . . . 239.77* 235.49* 237.67 233.22 220.30 Annual change +1.8% -0.8% +1.9% +5.9% +6.9%
Imports . . . . . . . . 95.62* 96.22* 97.04 89.31 88.69Exports . . . . . . . . 95.37* 99.39* 97.46 90.28 89.47
Consumption. . . 240.28* 237.20* 237.02 227.89 218.92 Annual change. +1.3% +0.1% +4.0% +4.1% +3.3%
End stocks . . . . . 30.66* 30.92* 32.79 32.55 28.21
Stocks/usage . . . 12.8% 13.0% 13.8% 14.3% 12.9%
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
24
O c t o b e r / S e p t e m b e r12/13
13/1414/15
15/1616/17
17/1818/19
19/2020/21F
-4-202468
101214
Production Consumption
Change From Year Ago in Mn T17 OILS & FATS: Production & Use Another below-average
consumption growth this season
17 oils: Biggest usage increases in 2020/21:->US, Braz & Indonesia up 2.2 Mn combined
-> China up 1.0 Mn T-> India up 0.3-0.4 Mn-> Oth ctries down 0.5
Details released in the new Oil World Monthly www.oilworld.biz
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 13
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18 20/21F05
1015202530354045505560
Soy, Rape, Sun Oils4 Animal FatsPalm Oil 9 Other
17 OILS & FATS : World Exports (Mn T)
25
World trade of oils & fats is declining in 2020/21 for the second consecutive year.
The shortage of export supplies is occuring in sun oil, palm oil and soya oil to varying degress and has been price supportive in recent months
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
99/00 02/03 05/06 08/09 11/12 14/15 17/18 20/21F0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35Indonesia
MalaysiaArgentina
U.S.A.Canada
Ukraine
Russia
17 OILS & FATS: Exports of Major Countries (Mn T)
26
25
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06/07 08/09 10/11 12/13 14/15 16/17 18/19 20/21F
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
22
24Palm OilSun Oil
Soya Oil17 Oils/Fats
Annual Stocks / Usage Ratios (%)
17 OILS & FATS
27
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Biodiesel policies are an uncertainty to watch
28
Daily prices from Oct 2019 until Mar 22, 2021
Oct19 Ja20 Apr Jly Oct Ja21 Mar
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200Daily Prices of Palm Oil & Gas Oil (US-$/T)
Crude palm oil (cif Rotterdam)
CPO vs. Gas oil (y2)
Nearby gasoil futures(ICE)
The spread between palm oil and gas oil reached record levels in recent months
Biodiesel production and usage are still high in Indonesia, the US & Brazil. Some rationing in the EU
Indonesian palm oil producers & consumers in the import countries partly finance Indonesian biodiesel program
Will there be temporary adjustments of mandates in 2021?
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BIODIESEL & HVO : World Production ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2021F 2020 2019 2018EU-27 . . . . . 14.75* 14.45* 14.64 14.07U.S.A. . . . . . 8.10* 7.85 7.35 7.20Argentina. . . 1.56* 1.16 2.15 2.43Brazil . . . . . . 6.30* 5.62 5.16 4.68Colombia. . . .56* .51* .58 .57China. . . . . . 1.50* 1.30* 1.03 .98Indonesia. . . 7.70* 7.35* 7.48 5.37Malaysia . . . 1.00* 1.10* 1.42 1.09Singapore . . 1.83* 1.80* 1.75 1.35Thailand. . . . 1.70* 1.65* 1.65 1.32Oth. ctries.. . 2.50* 2.51* 2.81 2.67Total . . . . . . 47.50* 45.30* 46.02 41.73
Change . . . . . +2.20* -.72* +4.29 +5.09
BIODIESEL & HVO : World Production ( Mn T )J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r
2021F 2020 2019 2018EU-27 . . . . . 14.75* 14.45* 14.64 14.07U.S.A. . . . . . 8.10* 7.85 7.35 7.20Argentina. . . 1.56* 1.16 2.15 2.43Brazil . . . . . . 6.30* 5.62 5.16 4.68Colombia. . . .56* .51* .58 .57China. . . . . . 1.50* 1.30* 1.03 .98Indonesia. . . 7.70* 7.35* 7.48 5.37Malaysia . . . 1.00* 1.10* 1.42 1.09Singapore . . 1.83* 1.80* 1.75 1.35Thailand. . . . 1.70* 1.65* 1.65 1.32Oth. ctries.. . 2.50* 2.51* 2.81 2.67Total . . . . . . 47.50* 45.30* 46.02 41.73
Change . . . . . +2.20* -.72* +4.29 +5.09
2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021F
0
10
20
30
40
50others used oils
tallow rape oil
palm oil soya oil
Biodiesel Use of Major Feedstock (Mn T)
17.9
12.6
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
30
Apr MJ JAS OND
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100nearby and deferred in US-$/T
Palm Olein, Fob Mal, 18 Mar 2021
Inverted market for vegetable oils
World supplies tighter than expected in Jan/Mar 2021.
Prices at multi-year highs. How long?Risk: Fund liquidation.Demand destruction.
Some price pressure likely in Apr/Jun for soya + palm oils.
Lower prices forecast for July/Dec 2021
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Price forecasts Jan/Dec 2021 (average of range forecast)
Soya oil, Arg. fob, US $ 1100
RBD palm olein, Mal fob, US $ 950
Selected Nearby and Deferred Prices ( US-$/T )Nearby D e f e r r e d P o s i t i o n s
As of March 18, 2021: 1. 2. 3. 4.Soybeans, cif Rot . . . . . . . 579 Ap 579 My 588 Je 519 OSoya pell, Arg, fob. . . . . . . 422 Ap 422 My 421 Je/Jy 424 Ag
Soya oil, Arg, fob. . . . . . 1213 Ap 1198 My 1152 Je/Jy 1096 Ag/SSun oil, Black Sea,fob . . 1590 Ap 1610 My/Je
Palm oleinRBD fob Mal . . 1055 Ap 1000 My/Je 915 Jy/S 840 O/DCoconut oil, cif Rott. . . . . . 1555 Ap/My1550 My/Je 1545 Je/Jy
Selected Nearby and Deferred Prices ( US-$/T )Nearby D e f e r r e d P o s i t i o n s
As of March 18, 2021: 1. 2. 3. 4.Soybeans, cif Rot . . . . . . . 579 Ap 579 My 588 Je 519 OSoya pell, Arg, fob. . . . . . . 422 Ap 422 My 421 Je/Jy 424 Ag
Soya oil, Arg, fob. . . . . . 1213 Ap 1198 My 1152 Je/Jy 1096 Ag/SSun oil, Black Sea,fob . . 1590 Ap 1610 My/Je
Palm oleinRBD fob Mal . . 1055 Ap 1000 My/Je 915 Jy/S 840 O/DCoconut oil, cif Rott. . . . . . 1555 Ap/My1550 My/Je 1545 Je/Jy
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
Daily prices from 2 Jan 2020 until 22 March 2021Ja20 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jly Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Ja21Feb Mar
500
650
800
950
1100
1250
1400
1550
1700LAURIC OILS: Daily Prices in Rotterdam (US-$/T)
Coconut oil, cif. Rott.
Palmkernel oil, cif. Rott.
32
Coconut oil prices doubled during the past 10 months
CNO & PKO production lower than expected, but recovery in July/Dec 2021Coconut oil premium set to narrow relative to PKO
Price forecasts J/D 2021:Coconut oil - US $ 1380Palmkern oil - US $ 1310
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How long will current tightness last? Uncertainties:
• 1) The weather. 2) Chinese policies (imports & reserve stocks)
• Covid-19 pandemic. How quickly can the vaccination be done?
• Several Governments apply export restrictions to curb
domestic food-price inflation. More to come?
– this is a disincentive for producers to expand (contra-productive)
• Impacts of current very high prices on consumption
– In many developing countries edible oil consumption will be affected
• High volatility from rising fund activity and money flows
• Farmers will increase plantings and investments for 2021/22
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Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
• Prices are likely to stay elevated and above average throughout
2021, but weaken from current levels, if world production of
10 oilseeds rebounds in 2021/22 (on the assumption of higher
plantings and normal to favourable weather) and a global
production surplus becomes likely.
• My 2021/22 world production forecasts (tentative):
– soybeans to 379 Mn T (against 354 in 2020/21), of which the USA 122
Mn T (vs. 113), Brazil 138 (vs. 131), Arg. 50 (vs. 44).
– Rapeseed & canola 66 (64) and sunflowerseed 56 Mn T (vs. 50).
• I currently expect a recovery of oilseed stocks in 2021/22.
• Veg oil stock recovery may take longer if palm oil growth is low
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Thomas Mielke, for more info www.oilworld.biz POC Conference - - 24 March 2021
Source: ISTA Mielke GmbH, Oil World 18
Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
J a n u a r y / D e c e m b e r2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021F
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
-1000
-500
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500production (Y1)
mat. area (Y2)
Annual Changes
PALM OIL : World Production & Area
Thd ha
Mn T
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Your Global Information Provider - www.oilworld.biz24 Mar 2021
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