Global Security Defense Index on Climate Change: PreliminaryResults

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Globa

lSecurity

DefenseIndex

www.AmericanSecurityProject.org 1100 New York Avenue, NW Suite 710W Washington, DC

Te Global Security DeenseIndex on Climate Change:

Preliminary ResultsNational Security Perspectives on Climate Change romAround the World

Andrew Holland and Xander Vagg

21 March 2013

KEY POINS:

Climate change is real and it is happening now. Its eects are having animpact on the security and stability o virtually every country around th

world.

Te governments and militaries o an overwhelming majority o countr at least 110 have identied climate change as a threat to their secu-rity. Many have ully integrated it into their deense and national securiplanning documents.

Deense documents and statements by Heads o State are important

signiers o a countrys priorities. Te importance o climate change inthese documents show that the world is demanding action to address thissue.

Introduction

Te American Security Projects Climate Change and Global Security Deense Index seekdetail how governments around the world, and militaries in particular, plan or and anticipthe strategic threats o climate change.

Tis project is seeking to determine to what extent governments around the world consi

climate change to be a national or international security threat, and how have they enshrinsuch a concern in their ocial documents and statements.
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AMERICAN SECURITY PROJECT

Te Index centralizes the varying attitudes o national militaries and security establishments toward climachange in the hopes o providing unique insight into national, regional, and multilateral security approachto the issue. In many nations, the armed orces are the most respected arm o government, and their action oclimate change can raise awareness throughout the country.

Te Index will be published on the internet so that all interested around the world can read and debate. A

quotes and reerences within this preliminary results paper will be available within an online report.

Te Link Between Climate Change and Security

Climate change is a risk to global security because it increases vulnerability in inrastructure, agriculturenergy and other actors. Te security consequences o climate change will be determined by how it aects aninteracts with local political, social, and economic conditions as much as by the magnitudes o the climatshit itsel.

Academic researchers have been debating the links between climate change and confict or decades. Tacademic consensus is that climate change alone is unlikely to be a primary cause o confict, but it is

important secondary cause.

A changing climate will increase vulnerability by exacerbating tensions related to water scarcity and ooshortages, natural resource competition, underdevelopment and overpopulation. It acts as an accelerant instability, which may lead to violence. Tese disruptions will burden civilian and military institutions arounthe world.

Layout o the Index

Te report divides countries into our groups:

1. Countries which denitively state that climate change is a national security threat. For these countries, clima

change has been identied as a threat in either ocial government documents or in statements by high rank

ing government ocials.

2. Countries that label climate change as an environmental issue. Tese countries tend to label climate as an is-

sue o concern or humanitarian or disaster response, but are not comortable with labeling it as a security

threat.

3. Countries that have not dened it as a concern. Tese countries are oten smaller, and lack security planning

documents or apparatus all together.

4. Countries or which there is no inormation available. Tese countries are oten lacking basic government se

vices many o them are post confict, and do not have dened deense strategies at all.

By its nature, this exercise is subjective. Placing countries into specic categories is always going to involvejudgments. Instead o seeing all these categories as denitive, it is important to understand that these are alnecessarily slightly vague.


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Preliminary Results

Climate Change is a National Security Treat110 out o 155* - 71% o countries

Climate Change as an Environmental Concern

32/155* - 21% o countries

Climate Change is Not a Defned Concern13/155* - 8% o countries

No Inormation Available41/196* - 21% o countries

*for which information is available


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Regional Examinations

Central Asia

Central Asian countries are divided about whether climate is a security threat oran environmental issue, with three labeling it as an environmental issue and our

labeling it as a national security threat. Te countries all place climate changermly within the problems o water security and the impacts that climate change

will have on ood production, as is apt or an arid region whos main water sourcesare transboundary rivers. For Central Asia, this is an issue which each countrymust work with its neighbors.

Te Prime Minister o Uzbekistan, Shavkat Mirziyoyev showed this sentiment in a 2009 conerence by notihow the weather in Central Asia was becoming more unpredictable and severe, and linking that with ton-going environmental, social and economic crisis in the Aral Sea Basin. He stressed the importance international cooperation in resolving these problems.

East Asia

Balance o power dynamics in East Asia means that every country in the regionalready has a ull slate o traditional national security challenges, includingnuclear weapons prolieration, contested maritime and land borders, andgreatly expanding conventional military orces. Nevertheless, the countries othe region overwhelmingly identiy climate change as threat to security, otenplacing it among other non-traditional national security threats as potentialcauses o confict.

Perhaps because the countries o East Asia have sophisticated national deense establishments, their ocdocuments are ull o reerences to climate change.

Te 2011 Japanese Deense White Paper, or instance, says that Climate change could also constitute a cauo confict while the 2010 Chinese White Paper mentions climate change as a security threat along wiother non-traditional threats. Te South Korean 2010 White Paper likewise identies climate change as a netype o security threat, and specically blames the rise in natural disasters in Asia on climate change.

Europe

As betting their leadership on climate and environmental issues in general,most o the nations o Europe, as well as the European Union government,have actively integrated climate change into their national security strategies.Only a handul o smaller countries like Moldova, Albania, or Cyprus do nottake into account the threats o climate change.


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Te most interesting divide in Europe comes between larger countries with global interests, like the UnitedKingdom, France, or Germany, who see climate change as a threat to security because o its eects on confictaround the world, and more locally-ocused nations like Finland, the Ukraine or Greece that see climatechange as a local threat. Te Finnish 2009 Deense Whitepaper, or example, says Climate change shall betaken into account in land use planning and other activities related to zoning as well as in training while theGerman Deense White paper states the climate change can lead to state ailure and uncontrolled migration

which can have a lasting, negative eect on international security.

Middle East and North Arica

Te MENA region appears to be the most agnostic about thethreats o climate change to security, perhaps unsurprisinglygiven the many pressing challenges aced by every country othe region. Only 5 o 19 countries explicitly state that climatechange is a national security threat, and we can nd noevidence o a statement within ocial deense policy papers.

Meanwhile, many countries actively oppose the securitizationo what they see as an environmental issue.

Te plurality o states in the region, however, have no dened position.

urkey, Israel, Qatar, Jordan, and Kuwait have expressed concern about the security threats o climate change,with the urkish government stating that Climate change posed a severe risk to political and social stability,especially in overpopulated and underdeveloped regions. Te Egyptian governments statement shows theiropposition to securitization o the issue, saying Climate change and its adverse impacts had to be addressedrom the perspective o sustainable development, promoting a comprehensive approach to conront the rootcause o the problem.

North America

Te governments o Canada and the United States strongly linkclimate change to security, citing the links between climate change andconfict. Te Canadian government exhibits a concern about the linkbetween climate change and development, while American documentsstress the threats o climate-related confict. Mexico, Central America,and the Caribbean are all included in the Latin America section below.

Te American statement in the 2010 Quadrennial Deense Reviewthat Climate change is an accelerant o instability or confict is oneo the worlds earliest and best-expressed examples or how to linkclimate change and confict.


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Southeast Asia and Oceania

Te regions o Southeast Asia and Oceania are two o the areas most atrisk rom climate change.

Te Pacic Island States have probably been the most vocal o all

countries in expressing the threat o climate change, with some o thempreparing or their land masses to cease to exist. Te more developedmilitaries around the periphery o the region, like Australia, Singapore,Vietnam, and New Zealand expect that the eects o climate change willhit the Pacic particularly hard, and are preparing or disaster responseand confict prevention throughout the region.

Te highest levels o government or many small Pacic island states have expressed that climate change is existential threat to security. For example, Anote ong, President o Kiribati, says that Rising sea levels, whihave already brought pools o brackish water to the doorsteps o many homes, are consuming our tiny isle

contaminating our vegetable gardens and poisoning our reshwater wells. Meanwhile, countries like Austrastate, with a clear eye to their Pacic backyard, that an increase in requency and severity o natural disastersmay contribute to instability and tension around the globe, especially in ragile states.

Latin America and the Caribbean

Te islands o the Caribbean and the smaller states o Central Americaoverwhelmingly ear that climate change, eaturing sea level rise and more requentstorms, poses an existential threat to their countries. However, the larger countrieso South America continue to express an opposition to the securitization o climate

change. For these countries, climate change is a domestic environmental issue.

In the Caribbean, the ear o climate change has been expressed by the highestlevels o government, with Freundel Stuart, Prime Minister o Barbados sayingTe very existence o small islands States like those in the Caribbean and thePacic could be imperilled and Ralph Gonsalves, Prime Minister o Saint Vincentand the Grenadines saying Te islands o our planet are at war against climatechange, warming temperatures and rising seas.

On the other hand, Brazil shows the predominant view in South America,expressing direct opposition to labeling climate change a security threat by sayingTe possible security implications o climate change were ar less obvious, asenvironmental impacts did not threaten international peace and security on theirown.


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South Asia

South Asian countries as a whole clearly see climate change as a threat to their national security,with the notable exception o the largest country, India. Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Pakistan, andothers have detailed strongly worded statements about the threats o climate change. Teyexpress it most commonly through threats to their own internal security. However, perhaps

because o their historical leadership o the non-aligned movement, the Indian governmentsees climate change through the prism o UN negotiations. Consequently, any expression osecuritization o climate change is a threat to move the issue rom the UN General Assemblyto the Security Council.

Bangladesh, long thought o as ground zero or climate change, states it best by saying Climate change-induced ood insecurity, the uprooting o populations and related adversity threatened international peaceand security. Sea-level rise was another concern or Bangladesh, as it could displace 30 to 50 million peoplerom the countrys coastal belts by 2050.

Sub-Saharan Arica

Arica south o the Sahara is oten described as one o the regions mostat risk rom climate change because o the confuence o poverty, extremeenvironments, and a history o confict. As betting a large region with 45countries, there is a diversity o views. Te countries split almost evenlyinto three parts, with an almost equal number o countries who list climatechange as a security threat, those who see it as a purely environmentalissue, and those or whom no inormation is available.

Rwanda explicitly acknowledges the environmental component oconfict, with Secretary o Deense James Kabarebe saying that Mostconficts in Arica are caused or triggered by environmental issues.

A number o states dene climate change as a threat to security in orderto use it as a weapon to blame the developed world or their plight, withRobert Mugabe o Zimbabwe stating that climate change is caused by the

West and harming Aricans. Countries like Ethiopia and Mozambiqueshow the other side, expressing concern about how climate change willimpact development.


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Authors Discussion

In examining the preliminary results o the Index, it is clear that the majority o states (over 100) have madeither an explicit reerence to the direct security dangers caused by climate change or, indirectly through tsecurity challenges that it creates (i.e. fooding, lack o water resources, over-pollution, natural disasters, etc

Most countries with a more detailed national security planning apparatus and with more resources or planninsuch as the United States, Great Britain, China, and Scandinavian states, have specically listed climate chanas a threat to national security in ocial National Security Strategies, Deense White Papers, or other ocigovernment documents.

For example, the United States Quadrennial Deense Review says that climate change may act as an accelerao instability or confict. Te Chinese 2010 Deense White Paper list climate change as one o several globchallenges or which non-traditional security threats are on the rise. In the Russian 2009 National SecuriStrategy, global climate changes are said to negatively aect the depletion o world reserves o mineral, watand biological resources.

For many o the countries that have not enshrined climate change within similar documents, this appears to because they simply do not have such documents and processes, and not necessarily because they deem it leo a security threat. For these countries, we have substituted statements rom Heads o State or Government other high ranking ocials. For example, Prime Minister Spencer Baldwin o Antigua and Barbuda summup the views o many likeminded small island states in a speech to the UN in 2009, saying Our ate, our veexistence, hangs on the outcome o such a [climate] agreement.

Most were less strident than this, but almost all countries were comortable listing climate change as anemerging, non-traditional threat, along with global pandemics, transnational crime networks, and terror-ism.

O those countries linking climate change to security, the most common label is to call climate change athreat multiplier capable o intensiying established threats like orced migration and natural disasters. Anexcerpt rom Australias 2012 Deense White Paper sums up this view well:

Te more severe eects o climate change, in particular the increase in requency andseverity o natural disasters, compounded by competition over scarce natural resources, maycontribute to instability and tension around the globe, especially in ragile states.

Tere was no country or which inormation was available that challenged the acts or the science o climatechange. A vocal minority o states have contested the direct relationship between national security andclimate change. Importantly, they still arm the importance o the issue, but they object to a securitizatioo what they view as an environmental problem. Special Representative Maria Luiza Ribeiro Viotti o Brazioutlined this view in last months push to have the Security Council address climate change:

Te possible security implications o climate change were ar less obvious, as environmentalimpacts did not threaten international peace and security on their own. However, that


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indirect relationship between security and climate change in no way diminished the urgencyo supporting the most vulnerable countries. Tose challenges required political, economicand humanitarian approaches, not necessarily a security response.

Tose countries skeptical o the link between climate and security were ar more comortable stressingthe need to protect the environment in order to avoid natural disasters or training or disaster response.

Opposition may also stem rom political disputes within the UN about the proper jurisdiction ordiscussing climate change with those opposed to bringing it up in the UN Security Council opposing alinkage with national security.

Next Steps: aking the Index Forward

Currently, this index only exists as an internal document within ASP. We intend to link to its results on ourwebsite, and have a clickable map in which all interested rom around the world can click on their countryto learn how their governments has identied the threats o climate change.

We anticipate, in the uture, that we will be able to dene in more detail which part o each nationsgovernment identies the threat o climate change.

Importantly, this index will be a living document that will be continuously updated as governments updatetheir policies and positions over time.

Andrew Holland is a Senior Fellow for Energy and Climate and Xander Vagg is a Junior Fellowat the American Security Project
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Building a New American Arsenal

Te American Security Project (ASP) is a nonpartisan initiative to educate the

American public about the changing nature o national security in the 21st

century.

Gone are the days when a nations strength could be measured by bombers

and battleships. Security in this new era requires a New American Arsenal

harnessing all o Americas strengths: the orce o our diplomacy; the might o

our military; the vigor o our economy; and the power o our ideals.

We believe that America must lead other nations in the pursuit o our common

goals and shared security. We must conront international challenges with

all the tools at our disposal. We must address emerging problems beore

they become security crises. And to do this, we must orge a new bipartisan

consensus at home.

ASP brings together prominent American leaders, current and ormer members

o Congress, retired military ocers, and ormer government ocials. Sta

direct research on a broad range o issues and engages and empowers the

American public by taking its fndings directly to them.

We live in a time when the threats to our security are as complex and diverse

as terrorism, the spread o weapons o mass destruction, climate change, ailedand ailing states, disease, and pandemics. Te same-old solutions and partisan

bickering wont do. America needs an honest dialogue about security that is as

robust as it is realistic.

ASP exists to promote that dialogue, to orge consensus, and to spur constructive

action so that America meets the challenges to its security while seizing the

opportunities the new century oers.

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Documents

Global Security Defense Index on Climate Change: PreliminaryResults