Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Global renewable energy
cost trends and the energy sector
transformation
Pablo Ralon
MANDATE To promote the widespread adoption and
sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy
worldwide
OBJECTIVETo serve as a network hub, an advisory resource
and an authoritative, unified, global voice for
renewable energy
SCOPEAll renewable energy sources produced in a
sustainable manner
2
About IRENA
158 Members
24 States in Accession
3
RE expected to dominate the power sector…
Source: IRENA (2018), Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050.
Gross power generation to almost double and RE providing 85% of electricitySolar and wind energy on the path to dominance
4
A virtuous cycle is unlocking the economic, social and
environmental benefits of renewables
Annual energy-related emissions must be reduced by
over 70% to bring temperature rise to below the 2ºC goal.
Renewable energy and energy efficiency measures provide over 90% of the reduction required
Source: IRENA (2018), Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050
…but the whole energy sector is transforming
Decarbonizing the EU energy system
5
REmap Options would deliver a reduction of 412 Mt CO2 (15%) compared to the Reference Case in 2030
Source: IRENA (2018), Renewable Energy Prospects for the European Union. IRENA analysis based on EEA source data for 1990 and 2015 values (EEA, 2017c)
They result in a
42% reduction in
emissions in the
energy sector
compared to 1990.
6
The EU could double the renewable share in its energy mix, cost effectively, by 2030
Source: IRENA (2018), Renewable Energy Prospects for the European Union.
Renewable Energy options in EU
7
Renewable Energy options in EUThe EU could double the renewable share in its energy mix, cost effectively, by 2030
Source: IRENA (2018), Renewable Energy Prospects for the European Union.
assuming the continuation of existing and planned policies
enable to cost-effectively reach the proposed 27% and even go beyond
Range of options across sectorsOn average negative substitution cost More ambition possible!
Recent cost evolution
• Latest trends in the cost and performance of renewable
power generation technologies
• Global results to 2017, country/regional results to 2016
• Detailed analysis of equipment costs and LCOE drivers
• Integration of project LCOE and Auction results to look
at trends to 2020
Recent cost evolution
Remarkable rate of cost deflationfor solar & wind
All commercial RE power to be competitive by 2020/22
Costs continuing to fall for solar and wind power technologies
All technologies falling into competitive range
Drivers: Technology, Competitive Procurement, Exp. Developers
Solar & Wind: LCOE/Auction Price Evolution Overview
Learning Rates: Remarkable Deflation in Costs
14%: Offshore wind
21%: Onshore wind
30%: CSP
35%: Solar PV
A CLOSER LOOK AT PV
13
14
Solar PV module price trends
Module prices in Europe decreased by 83% from the end of Q1 2010 to the end of Q1 2017
Import treatment (e.g. anti-dumping
measures) and market preferences
are varied
=> wide range of module prices (Range
here from USD 0.43 to 0.61/W in 2016).
15
Utility scale PV Europe vs non-Europe trend
• Non-Europe
with
consistently
higher IC
• CF:
significant
gap driven
by better
resources
outside
Europe
• Consistently
lower
LCOE’s
outside
Europe
16
Total installed cost trends in selected markets
Most cost reductions are happening at the balance of system costs level
Markets that significantly reduced the
differential over Chinese installed costs
did so by driving down BoS costs
towards more competitive levels.
Countries with competitive total installed
cost levels have, on average, BoS costs
(excluding the inverter) that make up
about half of the total installed cost.
Breakdown of utility-scale solar PV costs by country in 2016
A CLOSER LOOK AT WIND
17
Higher capacity
factors from improved
technology
Wind turbine cost reductions
Wind power costs are falling….
19
Wind cost and performance trends
• Globally, wind turbine costs have
declined by 41-56%, on average, in
2017 in comparison to peaks
observed between 2007 – 2009
LCOE of onshore wind
has declined by 85%
since 1983
The weighted average LCOE is estimated at USD 0.14/kWh in 2017 declining from USD 0.17/kWh in 2010
20
Wind – offshore
• Offshore wind farms are sited
further away from shore and
use larger wind turbines
• Globally, the LCOE of offshore
wind declined by 18% from
2010 to 2016
• Offshore wind auctions in 2016
and 2017 with projects in the
range of USD 0.06/kWh to
USD 0.10/kWh by 2020 to 2022
ELECTRICITY STORAGE:COST AND MARKETS TO 2030
21
22
Multiple drivers of electricity storage
1.2 billion
without
electricity
2050
5445 GW
WindHigh shares of VRE
Electromobility
Off-grid, mini-grids & islands
7122 GW
Solar PV
965 million
Electric
vehicles
57 million
el. buses &
light duty
vehicles.
2160
million
electric 2/3
wheelers
The report analyses and discusses stationary electricity storage options and costs. The focus is placed on batteries.
23
Context
Existing market and technology options
Latest performance and cost data for electricity storage technologies in different geographic markets and market segments/applications.
=> breakdown of costs into components
Cost reduction potential, competitiveness of stationary electricity storage systems for different services
Market growth in detail for electricity storage devices, focusing on batteries to 2030
24
Cost trends for different BES technologies
Central estimates for energy installations costs (USD/kWh)
The total installed cost of a Li-ion storage system could fall by an additional 54-61% by 2030 in stationary applications (to between USD 145 /kWh and USD 480/kWh)
Central estimate in 2016: between USD 150 and USD 1 050/kWhto reduce to between USD 75 and USD 480/kWh by 2030.
25
Opportunities for Europe to lead on many fronts!
▪ Cross-border and integrated European approach to develop sustainable whole value chain capabilities
▪ A coordinated policy approach can result in:▪ Sustainable supply of materials▪ Support to European projects▪ Industrial leadership (research and
innovation support)▪ Skilled workforce▪ Safe and sustainable production
Key takeaways
More ambition is possible at EU level and globallyWith cost effective options across sectors
Costs continuing to fall for solar and wind power technologies
Storage: different applications, storage technologiesand installed costs to fall 50-66% by 2030
All commercial RE power to be competitive by 2020/22
Renewables are increasingly
competitive
The winners are customers, the environment
and our future
28
Solar PV module price trends
Module prices in Europe decreased by 83% from the end of Q1 2010 to the end of Q1 2017
Module costs declined 80% between end of
2010 and end of 2016.
During this period, 87% of the cumulative
global PV capacity installed at the end of 2016
occurred.
Onshore wind and solar PV: LCOE/Auction trends
By 2019, LCOE of best onshore
wind and solar PV projects at
USD 0.03/kWh (or less!)
30
Utility scale PV global trend
• IC: High
costs persist
in some
markets
(JPN, US for
example)
• CF: 28%
relative
increase
• Dramatic fall
in LCOE
31
Total installed costs of solar PV
Between 2010 and 2017 the global weighted average cost of utility-scale PV decreased by 68%
Global capacity weighted average
total installed cost of newly
commissioned utility-scale PV projects
during 2017 at USD 1 388/kW
(a 10% decline from 2016).
Chinese, German and Italian projects
all close to USD 1 100/kW during
2017.
Cost differentials also declining and
increasingly converging to best
practice levels
32
Cost reduction drivers of battery electricity storage systems
▪ Drivers not exclusive to Li-ion, other storage technologies likely to experience a similar dynamic with increased deployment
▪ But the dominance of Li-ion batteries in the EV market and synergies in the development of Li-ion batteries for EVs and stationary applications, make the scale of Li-ion deployment likely to be of magnitude higher
Gross final renewable energy consumption in the EU-28 by source and application (EJ)
33
The EU energy system by 2030The EU could double the renewable share in its energy mix, cost effectively, by 2030
Source: IRENA (2018), Renewable Energy Prospects for the European Union.
Combined share of wind and PV = 21%!
34
The transport sector, looking ahead…
Source: IRENA (2018), Global Energy Transformation: A Roadmap to 2050.
