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Global Reactive Gases
Martin SchultzIEK-8, Forschungszentrum Jülich GmbH
• MACC G-RG (13 partners) combines heritage from GEMS (12 partners) and PROMOTE (5 partners)
• PROMOTE heritage:• level 2 satellite data products (GOME, GOME-2, Sciamachy, OMI)
• decentralized data assimilation for stratospheric (and total column) ozone (SACADA, BASCOE, TM3DAM)
• GEMS heritage:• quasi-operational monitoring of tropospheric and stratospheric
composition with IFS-MOZART and coupling achieved for IFS-TM5 and IFS-MOCAGE
• reanalysis 2003-2008
• support of scientific field campaigns
• a lot of validation activities
Introduction Slide 2
MACC G-RG comprises 4 work packages:
• WP 1: Satellite based monitoring of stratospheric ozone and tropospheric trace gas columns
• WP 2: Consolidation and improvement of integrated global stratospheric ozone service
• WP 3: Consolidation and improvement of integrated service for global tropospheric reactive gases
• WP 4: Development of fully integrated chemistry transport in the ECMWF IFS
Introduction Slide 3
WP 1 objective:
Continue existing decentralized services from PROMOTE that deliver value-added satellite data products related to stratospheric ozone and tropospheric trace gas columns (ozone, NO2, HCHO, CO, SO2) to end users
WP1 Status Slide 4
• Task G-RG_1.1: Near-real time provision of ozone and NO2 data from OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME and GOME-2
• Task G-RG_1.2: Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using SACADA 4D-Var
• Task G-RG_1.3: Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using BASCOE 4D-Var
• Task G-RG_1.4: Total ozone record, monitoring and forecast service Assimilation and forecasts of global stratospheric ozone
• Task G-RG_1.5: Validation of WP G-RG 1 trace gas services
WP1 Status Slide 5
• Main results of first reporting period• Routine provision of satellite based data for European
instruments:GOME-2, OMI and SCIAMACHY
• Quasi-operational application of independent assimilation systems:BASCOE, SACADA, TM3DAM for stratospheric ozone chemistry
• Initial validation of stratospheric (assimilation) services
WP1 Status Slide 6
Provision of satellite based data (level-2)
• Most level-2 data on stratospheric ozone, BrO, tropospheric and total NO2, CH2O and SO2 is now available in NRT via MACC and/or dedicated access points
• Improvements of the trace gas retrieval w.r.t. speed, temperature data, new (standard) absorption spectra
• Reprocessing for GOME(1995-2003) and SCIA(2002-2010)
Task GRG 1.1
WP1 Status Slide 7
Stratospheric ozone services
• SACADA assimilation of SCIA nadir ozone observations since March 2010.
• BASCOE assimilation of MLS AURA data since December 2009.
• Multi-instrumental 30 year reanalysis based on TOMS, GOME, SBUV, SCIA, OMI and GOME-2 data.
• SCIA ozone forecasts are now corrected for instrumental calibration issues, which is especially important for UV products.
Tasks GRG 1.2--1.4
WP1 Status Slide 8
Assimilated total ozone record for the period 1978 – 2008 based on satellite observations of TOMS, SBUV, GOME, SCIAMACHY, GOME-2 and OMI
TM3DAM
R. J. van der A, M. A. F. Allaart, and H. J. Eskes (2010): Multi sensor reanalysis of total ozone, Atmos. Chem. Phys. Discuss., 10, 11401-11448.
WP1 Status Slide 9
BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM: Intercomparison and comparison to independent data(focus on 2003 episode)
• BASCOE and SACADA more similar than TM3DAM.
• Results agree well in regions with good daily data coverage.
• Best correlation with independent data for the middle and high northern latitudes. Worst during ozone hole conditions.
• Most systematic deviations occur in data void regions.
• CTMs are capable to reproduce the Antarctic ozone hole. Though, timing and intensity differs from observations.
Task GRG 1.5
WP1 Status Slide 10
D 1.1
Near-real time provision of ozone and NO2 data from OMI, SCIAMACHY, GOME and GOME-2
M4 onwards
D 1.2Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using SACADA 4D-Var
M4 onwards
Since March 2010
D 1.3Stratospheric ozone record and NRT service using BASCOE 4D-Var
M4 onwards
Since Dec 2009
D 1.4Total ozone record, monitoring and forecasting service
M4 onwards
(TM3DAM) continued
D 1.5Validation report on stratospheric ozone services
M18 In preparation
D 1.7Unified web interface for integrated MACC and former PROMOTE services
M15
Deliverable added during first MACC assembly. Integration of stratospheric assimilation services achieved (see Task 2.3), integration of level 2 satellite products and tropospheric services TBD.
WP2 Status Slide 11
WP1 Deliverable Status
o
WP 2 objective:
Consolidate, operate and improve the integrated global reactive gases forecasting for stratospheric ozone developed in the GEMS project with products comprising of ozone, N2O, CH4, BrOx, ClOx and others based on user-consultation, including the extended validation with independent data and through well-defined case studies
WP2 Status Slide 12
Task G-RG_2.1: Preparation of datasets for stratospheric model validation
Task G-RG_2.2: Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation of MACC integrated stratospheric ozone service
Task G-RG_2.3: Development of improved web-based service products and documentation
Task G-RG_2.4: Improvement integrated global stratospheric chemistry model
Task G-RG_2.5: Non-operational validation of continued GEMS stratospheric ozone service (case studies)
Task G-RG_2.6: Technical and scientific documentation of the integrated global stratospheric chemistry model
Task G-RG_2.8: Validation of initial CT-IFS results
WP2 Status Slide 13
• Acquiring and maintenance of necessary datasets• NRT groundbased and satellite observations• NRT and historic model output
• Creation of the Stratospheric Ozone Webpage:
http://macc.aeronomie.be
• Centralized stratospheric ozone products: MACC, BASCOE, SACADA and TM3DAM shown side-by-side, allowing quick comparison
• Initial NRT evaluation of stratospheric services
• Extensive improvement in automated evaluation software allowing for quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation
WP2 Status Slide 14
Major accomplishments in WP2
http
://m
acc.
aero
nom
ie.b
e/
Evaluation with statistical plots in observation space shows:
• IFS-MOZART has not been able to simulate/forecast polar O3 depletion
• Elsewhere: Both BASCOE CTM and IFS-MOZART overestimate (+20%) in the lower stratosphere and underestimate (-20%) in the upper stratosphere
• Monitoring and reanalysis of total O3 columns: very successful
... but vertical distribution of the analyses is wrong (bias ~ 20%)
• in South Pole vortex where model is too biased
• when no profile is assimilated…
WP2 Status Slide 16
Major accomplishments in WP2
ez2m MOZART 3.1, ff0f wetdep bug fix, f3yj Analysis
Antarctic ozone hole problem in MOZART
Monthly mean vertical profiles at Neumayer station, Antarctica
WP2 Status Slide 17
Antarctic ozone hole problem in MOZART
Simulation results with MOZART 3.5.02 showing ozone depletion down to~140 DU in September 2003 (old version had a minimum of ~220 DU)
Offline results with NCAR settings very similar to MACC settings; integration into MACC-IFS ongoing
WP2 Status Slide 18
D 2.1
Inventory of stratospheric composition datasets for validation in NRT and delayed mode
M6, M24
D 2.2
Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation chain for MACC integrated stratospheric ozone service
M6 onwards
Basic system continued from GEMS and side-by-side comparisons with SACADA and BASCOE (from WP1)
D 2.3
Service product catalogue and web documentation of stratospheric ozone evaluation
M12, M24 http://macc.aeronomie.be
D 2.4Updated stratospheric chemistry model
M12
(Delay 6 M)
Albeit the reason for the IFS-MOZART deficiency to simulate Antarctic ozone depletion are still unclear, a new model version (MOZART 3.5.02) which was received from NCAR in September 2010 shows much improved simulation results. The new model is currently integrated in the MACC-IFS system.
D 2.5Stratospheric case study model results and evaluation results
M18 In preparation
o
WP2 Status Slide 19
WP2 Deliverable Status
WP 3 objective:
Consolidate, operate and improve the integrated global reactive gases forecasting for tropospheric ozone, ozone precursors (NOx, CO, HCHO, SO2, selected NMVOC and others) and oxidizing capacity developed in the GEMS project, including the extended validation with independent data and through well-defined case studies
WP3 Status Slide 20
Task G-RG_3.1: Prepare datasets for tropospheric model validation
Task G-RG_3.2: Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation of MACC integrated tropospheric trace gas service
Task G-RG_3.3: Improve integrated global tropospheric chemistry model
Task G-RG_3.4: Development of improved web-based service products and documentation
Task G-RG_3.5: Adapt G-RG model to use new vegetation fire emission data and parameterisations from D-FIRE
Task G-RG_3.6: Adapt G-RG model to use new anthropogenic and natural emission data and parameterisations from D-EMIS
Task G-RG_3.7: Non-operational validation of continued GEMS tropospheric trace gas service (case studies)
Task G-RG_3.8: Technical and scientific documentation of the integrated global tropospheric chemistry model
Task G-RG_3.9: Negotiation of an SLA with a key user for tropospheric trace gas service post-MACC
WP3 Status Slide 21
Main achievements:• 4 NRT streams:
• IFS-MOZART with assimilation of CO and ozone
• IFS-TM5 with assimilation of CO and ozone
• IFS-MOZART without assimilation
• IFS with tagged CO-like tracers
• Preparation of the MACC re-analysis with IFS-MOZART • Code and emission update & resolution increase
• Optimisation of AN suite with coupled system
• Tracer forecasts, plume modelling and analysis• Eyjafjalla eruption in April 2010
• Russian fires in July 2010
• Further development of validation metrics and web services
WP3 Status Slide 22
1-2 slides with NRT stream results(could also be tied in with Russian fires…)
For O3, Fbov shows an improvement over f026, however the O3 anomaly from 1-14 August still underestimated.
Fbov underestimates the CO concentration throughout the atmosphere and both IFS runs fail to capture the increase in CO near 5000m due to the urban emissions and forest fires in southern europe.
WP3 Status Slide 24
Ozone CO
GEMS versus MACC reanalysisGEMSMACC
Zonal CO Flux = U * MMR_CO * ρ
WP3 Status Slide 25
MACC reanalysis
CO – long-range transport over Atlantic (30W)
• GEMS&MACC developments allowed for quick implementation of tracer forecast within 24 h after eruption using different injection height assumptions
• Good agreement in shape with forecast from VAAC - Metoffice and others
• Large uncertainty in emission source strength and injection height
• Ongoing experiments with data assimilation of SO2
• Ongoing inter-comparison of plume forecast within ENSEMBLE framework (Dispersion models)
Eyjafjalla eruption: plume modelling
WP3 Status Slide 26
WP3 Status Slide 27
Eyjafjalla eruption: plume modelling
Iceland - Eyjafjallajokull
Banks Islands - Gaua
Congo - Nyamuragira
WP3 Status Slide 28
The potential use of SO2 column datato assimilate volcanic plumes
MACC models currently don‘t account for volcanic emissions in NRT
Time average
WP3 Status Slide 29
Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010:Assimilation of IASI CO
Agreement between IASI and MOPITT is good; IASI slightly higher.
Mean of IASI data used in the assimilation underestimates, because high values get first-guess and varqc rejected
• No CO assimilation for current period
• RETRO/REAS emissions• GFEDv2 climatology
TM5-semi-oper
•Assimilation of MOPITT CO•MACC emissions•GFASv0
TM5-GFASv0 MOPITT-V4
Model is drawn towards observations
Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010
WP3 Status Slide 30
CO column
•No NO2 assimilation•RETRO/REAS emissions•GFEDv2 climatology
TM5-semi-oper
•Assimilation of OMI NO2•MACC emissions,•GFASv0
TM5-GFASv0 OMI
1. Model is drawn towards observations2. Artificial spots of wildfires are suppressed
1 2
WP3 Status Slide 31
Russian forest fires 1-15 August 2010NO2 column
WP3 Status Slide 32
IFS-TM5 modelAssim uses IASI CO columns
GFAS doesn‘t capture burningevents or emission magnitudeleading to „observed“ COenhancement.
MACC pages at ECMWF
SCIAMACHY val. at IUP
BC service at Jülich
MOZAIC/IAGOS val. at Toulouse
Development of tropospheric GRG services
GEMS-RAQ model: MM5/CAMx
Climatic Boundaries vs. MOZART-GRG f026 boundaries
Comparison with MOZAIC
Use of global boundary conditions for regionalAQ modeling
WP3 Status Slide 35
D 3.1Inventory of tropospheric composition datasets for validation in NRT and delayed mode
M6(+M24)
D 3.2Quasi-operational monitoring and evaluation chain for MACC integrated tropospheric reactive trace gas service
M6 onwards
D 3.3Improved tropospheric chemistry model based on GEMS validation results
M6
D 3.4Service product catalogue and web documentation of tropospheric reactive trace gases evaluation
M12(+M24)
D 3.5Updated tropospheric chemistry model code for use with vegetation fire emissions from D-FIRE
M12
D 3.6Updated tropospheric chemistry model code for use with anthropogenic and natural emissions from D-EMIS
M18Delay 3M
• Definition of upgrades in D-FIRE products
• Needed to fix stratospheric ozone issue
D 3.7Tropospheric reactive gases case study model results and evaluation results
M18 In preparation
WP3 Status Slide 36
WP3 Deliverable Status
o
WP 4 objective:
Begin the development of a fully coupled chemistry transport model based on the ECMWF integrated forecasting system in order to eliminate inconsistencies arising from the coupled set-up in GEMS
WP4 Status Slide 37
Task G-RG_4.1: Design study for the integrated CT-IFS
Task G-RG_4.2: Analysis of IFS transport parameterisations for use with reactive gases
Task G-RG_4.3: Implementation of simplified linear chemistry schemes for CO and its adjoint code
Task G-RG_4.4: Preparation and implementation of chemistry modules
Task G-RG_4.5: Preparation and implementation of emission modules
Task G-RG_4.6: Preparation and implementation of deposition modules
Task G-RG_4.7: Testing and optimizing of the integrated CT-IFS
WP4 Status Slide 38
• Expanded IFS-code to run with 100+ tracers
• Scripts to run C-IFS and to archive results (not in mars yet)
• Global mass, source and sink diagnostic
• Global tracer mass fixer (same relative change in MMR at all grid points to ensure conservation)
• Implementation of TM5 chemistry package for troposphere (provided by KNMI)
• Cariolle-scheme for stratospheric ozone
• Integration of wet-deposition and lightning modules
• Successful completion of first one-year run with good results
WP4 Status Slide 39
C-IFS Development Status
Area-averaged 222Rnprofiles at 12 UTC…
… and at 24 UTC.
C-IFS TM5
222Rn simulation with C-IFS
900 hPa
WP4 Status Slide 40
ObsTM5C-IFS
WP4 Status Slide 41
Surface ozone simulation with C-IFS
Differences to be expected, because of different wet deposition/dry deposition schemes
•Species emitted at surface are increased by non-conservation of semi-lagrange advection•Ozone (and other stratospheric species) tend to be decreased
WP4 Status Slide 42
IFS Tracer Transport
• NO lightning emissions• Three different parameterisations for flash rate density using cloud
height (Price and Rind, 1993) , convective precipitation (Meijer et al, 2001) or updraft velocity & ice cloud height (P. Lopez) implemented
• Wet deposition• Simple parameterisation based on precipitation fluxes and clouds
• Re-evaporation and in-cloud scavenging in convection routine
• Dry deposition• Constant surface flux in vertical diffusion
• More explicit treatment
• Photolysis rates• Look up-table with corrections for cloud optical depth
• Use (extended) SW radiation scheme
C-IFS physical chemistry parameterisations
WP4 Status Slide 43
Price and Rind, 1993Conv. Cloud height
Meijer 2001 (TM5)Conv. Precip.
Lopez p.c.Updraft & Ice Cloud height
ObservationsLIS OTD
WP4 Status Slide 44
Lightning NOx: Flash frequency parameterisations
Lopez p.c.Updraft & Ice Cloud height
ObservationsLIS OTD
WP4 Status Slide 45
Lightning NOx: Flash frequency parameterisations
Grewe et al., 2001Updraft & Conv. Cloud height
ECHAM5-MOZ
• Implement MOZART and MOCAGE chemistry modules
• Consolidate input/output data handling for C-IFS
• Continue work on mass diagnostics and simple mass fixers • Family advection to reduce gradients
• Test different interpolation options
• Improve wet-deposition scheme and lightning
• Implement and test linear CO scheme
• Prepare C-IFS for data assimilation
WP4 Status Slide 46
C-IFS development plans for P2
D 4.1Planning document on design outline and interface standards of CT-IFS
M4
D 4.2 IFS transport study results M12(Delay 6 M)
• Acute work on Eyjafjalla eruption/plume modeling
• Testing more extensive due to use of more realistic tracers (TM5 chemistry)
D 4.3Simplified linear chemistry scheme for CO and adjoint code integrated
M16Code delivered from CERFACS, but not yet implemented
D 4.4 Chemistry module integrated M16 TM5 module is integrated and tested
D 4.5 Emission module integrated M20C-IFS interfaced with inventories and GFAS data
o
WP4 Status Slide 47
WP4 Deliverable Status
o
( )
( )
Outstanding issues:
• Harmonisation („one-stop access“) of tropospheric GRG products
• Underestimation of CO got worse in MACC D-EMIS, D-FIRE
• Testing and use of additional/new satellite observations
• Some elements of validation work have not functioned very efficiently new VAL sub project in MACC-2
• Further development of C-IFS remains challenging (but also exciting)
Outstanding Issues Slide 48
Additional slides
Joint work CNRM-BIRA on strat. chemistry
BIRA wanted to upgrade PSC chemistry representation in BASCOE. In the process, an error was found in MOCAGE PSC routine (from the REPROBUS original scheme), impacting specially HNO3 in the polar vortex : sedimentation and thus removal was previously much underestimated.
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GAW site list for NRT validation (CO and O3)
Station NRT interval lat lon alt
1 Hohenpeissenberg 1 day 47.8 11.02 985
2 Jungfraujoch 1 day (12h) 46.55 7.99 3580
3 Monte Cimone 1 month 44.18 10.70 2165
4 Moussala 1 month 42.2 25.40 2925
5 Ryori 1 month 39.03 141.82 260.00
6 Waliguan 1 week 36.28 100.90 3842
7 Santa Cruz (Tenerife) 1 day 28.5 -16.30 50
8 Izana (Tenerife) 1 day 28.3 -16.50 2367
9 Yonagunijima 1 month 24.47 123.02 30.00
10 Minamitorishima 1 month 24.29 153.98 8.00
11 Assekrem/Tamanraset 1 month 23.17 5.42 2728
12 Cape Point 1 month -34.35 18.48 230
13 Ushuaia 1 month -54.85 -68.32 18.00
14 Neumayer 1 month -70.65 -8.25 42
New sites since GEMS
Submission via FTP
Submission via Email
Currently no data transfer
Offline validation performed for following runs:
f93i: 09/2009 – 07/2010
f1kd: 10/2008 – 08/2009
f9nd: 11/2009 – 07/2010
fdrl: 05/2010 – 07/2010
GAW NRT data delivery
WP3 Status Slide 51
Comparison of F9nd (IFS TM5) and F93i (IFS MOZ) for Antarctica (Neumayer):
SH Summer SH Winter
f9nd does capture the level of O3, however, in the winter time the correlation decreases.
strong underestimation of surface O3 for Neumayer in winter and summer!
NRT validation with GAW data
Jan 2004
Jul 2004
Anthropogenic CO emission ratio MACC/GEMS
• Emission and deposition preprocessor SUMO
• Reggrid original emission datasets to working domain and convert to a reduced set of activity
sector (optionally apply month/season/day temporal profiles)
• Global or regional datasets accepted
• 1 file per specie and per activity sector (NetCDF format) at domain resolution
• Aggregate emission to model species (optionally apply hourly profile) and calculate
deposition velocities
• Meteorological fields from ECMWF or Météo-France for deposition velocities
• Wesely Ganzeveld-modified parameterization
• DV and emissions at domain resolution in 1 or 2 separate files (NetCDF format)
• !!! Output fields are in lat-lon coordinates !!!
Prep-Emis
SUMO
january july
SUMO
IFS-CTM(TM5)
O3 deposition velocities in cm.s-1
(monthly means)