Global PV Technology Trends for 2017: What Next after PERC? · 13-10-2016 · Ranking PV manufacturers 8. Technology trends & drivers 9. What to expect in 2017 ... tech.org/editors-blog/top-10-solar-manufacturers-disrupting-the-industry-in-2016

Global PV Technology Trends for 2017: What Next after PERC?

Finlay Colville, Head of Market Research

PV-Tech : Solar Intelligence : Solar Media Ltd

13 October 2016

2

Global PV Technology Trends for 2017:

What Next after PERC?

Finlay Colvi l le, Head of Market Research

PV-Tech : Solar Intel l igence : Solar Media Ltd

13 October 2016

© So lar Media L imited, 2016

3 Global PV Technology Trends for 2017: What Next after PERC? © Solar Media Ltd., 2016

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Copyright © 2016 Solar Media Limited


Introduction

Solar Media Ltd

• Solar Media Ltd. is a diversified publishing, events and market intelligence business, servicing the global solar energy supply chain, including the renowned PV-Tech website.

Presenter

• Dr Finlay Colville is Head of Market Research at Solar Media Ltd.

• Previously he was Head of Solar at NPD Solarbuzz between 2010 & 2014.

• His blogs have appeared regularly on PV-Tech.org for more than 10 years.

Data sourcing

• All data & graphics are taken from the October 2016 release of Solar Media Ltd.’s PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report.

• Extra inputs are from PV-Tech market research & PV CellTech 2017 agenda.


What’s happening today?


Contents

1. Global end-market drivers

2. Capacity in the value-chain

3. Southeast Asia cell production

4. Pricing trends & margins

5. Capex cycles

6. R&D from the PV industry

7. Ranking PV manufacturers

8. Technology trends & drivers

9. What to expect in 2017


1. Global end-market drivers

• Demand is defined as the shipment of components (modules, inverters, mounting, etc.).

• Traditionally, the solar industry has seen quarterly demand increase from Q1 to Q4.

• This dynamic changed in 2016, due to the 1H/2H pull from the largest end-market in 2016 – China.

• This has caused created a strong imbalance, and has many consequences.


2. Capacity in the value-chain

• During 2015, ‘overcapacity’ was at acceptable levels of approx. 120-130%.

• Strong demand from China during 1H’16 led to high utilization rates, with overcapacity almost negated during Q2’16 (100% demand).

• This changed in Q3’16, creating a severe overcapacity situation that has caused ASP declines, prompting companies to adjust short-term plans.

• These plans are going to impact capex, and R&D spending, including upgrades.


3. Southeast Asia production

• During 2016, cell capacity across Southeast Asia (including South Korea) had grown to about 20% of global effective cell capacity.

• By the end of 2017, Southeast Asia cell/module capacity is sufficient.


4. Pricing trends & margins

• The Silicon Module Super League (SMSL) represent the dominant module suppliers for 2017:

• Trina Solar, JinkoSolar, Canadian Solar, JA Solar, Hanwha Q-CELLS, GCL Systems Integration, LERRI Solar.

• ASPs & margins from this group set the industry benchmarks.

• Margins ultimately flow into capex & whether technology change wins against cost reduction.


5. Capex cycles

• The SMSL has been accounting for 40-50% of all industry capex in 2015 & 2016.

• Two of the largest contributors to capex during 2015-2017 are GCL (Poly & Systems Integration) & LONGi Silicon Materials (including LERRI Solar).

• How GCL & LONGi / LERRI decide to spend capex is the most important factor in technology roadmaps for the industry today.


6. R&D from the PV industry

• R&D spending by the industry is a strong indicator for technology changes 2-3 years out.

• The graphic highlights increased focus on n-type cell/module.


7. Ranking PV manufacturers

• Recently, we devised a ranking method to allow us to assess the overall impact of each PV manufacturer, regardless of whether they were pure-play or integrated through the value-chain.

• The methodology can be found on PV-Tech at: http://www.pv-tech.org/editors-blog/top-10-solar-manufacturers-disrupting-the-industry-in-2016

• What this grouping does with n-type versus p-type, mono-vs-multi, Al-BSF vs PERC, etc. can set the upgrade paths all others have to follow.


8.1 Technology trends & drivers

• The industry remains dominated by p-type solar cells, packaged into 60 & 72-cell module designs.

• p-type ‘Advanced’ is dominated by PERC, n-type production increases minimal.


8.2 Technology trends & drivers

Stage Other trends/drivers

Wafer Diamond wire saws for multi

Cell

Etching for diamond wire multi wafers (“black silicon”) Heterojunction new entrants. Half-cut cells.

Module

Multi busbar forming. Bifacial. 72 cell designs. 1,500V operation.


9. What to expect in 2017

• Leading indicators for PV technology change moving into 2017 include:

• Annual demand levels not sufficient to change the industry environment being seen

today.

• What Next after PERC?

• Could be a question for 2018, not 2017.

• Cost reduction, yield optimization, 72 cell versus 60 cell, 1,500V modules, multi BB

increases.

• These could all take precedence over ‘black-silicon’, bifacial, p-multi PERC, etc.

• However, the module available to installers & EPCs in 2017 will be:

• Much higher power, Much higher quality, Much lower price...

• And this can only be good for the PV industry as a whole!


Further information

Keep track of PV manufacturing & technology news

www.pv-tech.org/

Sign up to attend PV CellTech 2017 in Penang, Malaysia:

14-15 March 2017

http://celltech.solarenergyevents.com/

Check out our printed journals & magazines on

topical trends

• For questions on the webinar, Email: [email protected] • To subscribe to the PV Manufacturing & Technology Quarterly report,

contact us at: [email protected]

Thank-you!

Documents

Global PV Technology Trends for 2017: What Next after PERC? · 13-10-2016 · Ranking PV manufacturers 8. Technology trends & drivers 9. What to expect in 2017 ... tech.org/editors-blog/top-10-solar-manufacturers-disrupting-the-industry-in-2016