Global Prospects for Cost-Effective Development of Ocean Energy for Island Electrification Dr....
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Global Prospects for Cost-Effective Development of Ocean Energy for Island Electrification Dr. Narasimalu Srikanth OES Represenative Conference on Island
Global Prospects for Cost-Effective Development of Ocean Energy
for Island Electrification Dr. Narasimalu Srikanth OES
Represenative Conference on Island Energy Transitions: Pathways for
Accelerated Uptake of Renewables 22-24 June 2015, IRENA- Martinique
Program Director/ Senior Scientist Energy Research Institutute @NTU
(ERI@N), Singapore
Slide 2
* Need for Island Electrification 2 (Source:
Reiner-Lemoine-Institut) 11% of global population lives on islands
huge potential for hybrid mini-grids in many communities with no
access to electricity
Slide 3
* Landscape of Island Electrification 3 Most islands remain
heavily dependent on conventional sources for electricity supply.
Fossil fuel import cost covers high percentage of GDP: o 20 % of
annual imports of 34 islandic countries within the Small Islands
Developing States network (SIDS), and 5-20 % of their GDP. o
Approximately 15 % of entire import cost of most of the European
Unions 286 islands. Fluctuation of fossil fuel prices cause
uncertainties for island financial planning. Over-exploitation of
fossil fuels globally affects the environment and threatens the
energy security of islandic societies.
Slide 4
e.g.Phillipiness islandic Energy Needs e.g.Phillipiness
islandic Energy Needs 4 Energy Research Institute @ NTU
Confidential Off-grid areas of the Philippines Electrification rate
of the Philippines is about 89.7%. Rural electrification fall on
the Small Powers Utilities Group (SPUG). Supplies power to off grid
areas by utilizing power barges. Challenges dispersed locations
& absence of indigenous energy resources Theoretical capacity
of 170,000MW Over a 1000Sq.km ocean resource area Focus in OTEC and
Tidal & wave power generation. Potential Thousands of miles of
coastline, For ocean energy, an estimated 240,000MW capacity
Electrification Government Potential (2012 MEDP) suggests that
private sector participation be pursued. (2012-2016 MISSIONARY
ELECTRIFICATION DEVELOPMENT PLAN) Existing RE installed capacity:
5400MW (2012) Plans to increase installed capacity to 12700MW
(2020) Source: NREP 2012 report Science (2010)
Slide 5
Technology Issues & Remedies of ORE towards Islandic Needs
Challenges: Lack of detailed resource & siting studies. Too
high capital cost & upfront investment. RE is less promising
due to intermittency. In developing islandic region, presence of
weak grids. Skepticism in terms of impact on other marine users.
Possible solutions: Require disruptive concepts that are
site-specific & scalable to form arrays thru product
modularity. Need low cost installation methods. Should possess
resilience towards weak grid & mitigate interruption by energy
storage & forecasting. Co-evolve regional market, supply chain
& integrate with local skills through inter-industry learning.
Setup standards & procedure for specific markets such as
Tropical islands environmental impact assessment. Trust build in
stakeholders thru test-bedding through collaborative open
innovation network.
Slide 6
Learning curve effects with Product Scaling During the early
phases of product development little is known compared to all the
factors that will eventually contribute to lifecycle cost and
performance. Learning curves represent longer- term cost reductions
for an industry. With every doubling of installations the cost is
expected to decrease. Historically attained learning rates of RE is
~10%-30%. Wind experiences a learning rate of ~15%.
Slide 7
Ocean Energy Potential Energy system modelling to incorporate
future technological advances is to present potential pathways for
new energy technologies to emerge wider energy mix. OES
investigated existing energy system modelling, the Levelised Cost
of Energy (LCOE) for wave, tidal and OTEC technologies. Industrys
state of the art knowledge around the costs to deploy and operate
each technology in its current state, and the cost reductions that
are foreseen on the route to product commercialization. Engaged
stakeholders of OES countries. The work is informed by a series of
in-depth interviews with technology developers, and is built upon
work carried out by different international projects (e.g. SI
Ocean, DTOcean, Equimar, the Danish LCOE Calculation Tool, Carbon
Trust, and US Department of Energy). Costs and operational
parameters of each technology at three development phases:
pre-commercial array, second pre- commercial array and the
commercial scale target. Table: Summary data averaged for each
stage of deployment, and each technology type (Source: OES)
Slide 8
Tidal Energy
Slide 9
Wave Energy
Slide 10
OTEC Energy Source: OES(2015)
Slide 11
Case of SEA Islandic Needs SEA is keen towards rural islandic
electrication. Singapore is keen to be a R&D center for RE
Technologies towards tropical islandic needs and focuses in
disruptive product design & evaluates through test bedding
efforts. Promote spillover of technologies from related industries
& traditional Ocean energy efforts towards islandic needs.
Promote drivers for supply chain development. Knowledge sharing of
islandic states adoption of ocean energy with similar challenges :
50 different island communities
http://www.globalislands.net/greenislands/ 50 different island
communities http://www.globalislands.net/greenislands/
http://www.direkt-project.eu/ http://www.direkt-project.eu/ Exploit
local skills By the People For the People Create new job
opportunities. Setup necessary training to create manpower through
engaging local academic institutions. 11 ERI@N Offshore REIDS
Slide 12
Cost Effective Technology Developments Need to develop low cost
disruptive resource mapping methods: Easily evaluate resource
potential through Remote sensing & meso-scale resource mapping.
Cost effective installation methods of Offshore renewable energy
systems. Easily towable RE systems with easy decommissioning
methods. Environmentally safe RE systems such that marine life is
undisturbed (Corals, Sea based Mamals, nearby Fishfarms, etc).
Setup proper procedures for Environmental impact assessment toward
other marine users. Land based WEC designs are good for islandic
condition e.g. LIMPET & Mutriku case study. LCOEs approx. 0,5
USD/kWh at 12% interest today Source: Bluetec Source: Schotel
Source: Voith Hydro Wavegen
Slide 13
Efforts for affordable RE systems Stakeholders action items:
Government: to identify suitable mechanisms & policies to
support towards technology supply and market demand evolution such
as through technology push and market pull needs. Industry:
Regional firms to understand ocean energy potential and support the
evolution of production chain. Research: To evolve unique products
& technologies for islands technology gaps. Evolve industrial
clusters to promote supply chain and reduce cost Convergence within
the industry need to happen in short time through collaborative
effort to evolve supply chain involvement. Additionally to unlock
the power of energy users (PROSUMERS) to create high demand for RE
which will bring down the cost. Need to be aware of likely impacts
of future ocean industry development on marine eco- systems and
sustainability, the use of ocean space, and the implications for
managing ocean activities 13
Slide 14
Government Catalytic Role in RE adoption
Slide 15
Summary 1.Ocean Energy Technology can meet Islandic energy
needs and ORE Industry is capable to support islandic states
three-fold challenge of energy security, CO 2 emission reduction,
and economic & Job growth for the region. 2.To reduce initial
capital cost, O&M cost & LCOE, Inter-industry learning
should be explored to evolve right technologies & production
chain through identifying technology similarity. 3.Regions should
setup industrial clusters to promote Ocean energy supply chain and
focus on customized ORE disruptive products. 4.Convergence within
the industry need to happen in product architecture to minimize
design variants to enhance accelerated learning. 5.Collaborative
effort needed between stakeholders (technology developers, project
developers, funding agencies) to evaluate risks and mitigate
through early full scale test-bed efforts. 6.OES Part of IEA is
keen towards promoting Ocean Energy Systems for Islandic region
needs. 15
