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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Global Optimization for Estimation of On/Off
Seasonality in Infectious Disease Spread Using
Pyomo
Carl Laird
Chemical Engineering Dept.Texas A&M University
Gabriel Hackebeil
Chemical Engineering Dept.Texas A&M University
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Introduction
Infectious Diseases Remain Important Understanding Disease
Dynamics
Public Health Program Implementation
Childhood Diseases Useful for Study
Clear Temporal Dynamics Annual and Biennial Drivers Dependent on
Birthrate
Seasonal Patterns
Not Purely Random
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Introduction
4
Seasonality in Transmission Parameter
Previous Results Show Seasonality in Beta Corresponds With
School Terms
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Outline
Problem Formulation
High-level Solution Strategy
Pyomo Implementation
Results
Pyomo Experiences
Acknowledgements
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Disease Model
TSIR Model
Measles Data
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Problem Formulation
Log Transform
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Problem Formulation
Multiplicative Noise in Data Measurement
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Problem Formulation
First-Order Taylor Series Approximation
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
MIP Formulation
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
NLP Formulation
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Global Optimization Algorithm
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Refining the Convex Relaxation
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Disease Model File
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Run File
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Results New York Data
Global Solution Two Years of Case Data
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Results New York Data
Global Solution
On/Off Behavior Matches School Terms
17
Summer
Break
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical EngineeringTexas A&M University
Pyomo Experiences
Convenience of Python
plotting/saving results
lists/dictionaries for data analysis
functions, classes
Data files
previous models built in AMPL
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Artie McFerrin Department of
Chemical Engineering
Acknowledgements
Sandia National Laboratories
National Science Foundation Faculty Early
Career Development (CAREER) Award
Research Group
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