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Global offshore wind market report 2018
Jon Dugstad, Director Wind & Solar
Offshore wind - a fast growing industry
Offshore expertise applied
Likely contribution to LCOE - Europe
Source: BVG Associates Project development, 3%
Rotor, 9%
Drivetrain, 6%
Electical systems, 10%
Auxillary systems, 3%
Assembly, 1%
Tow er, 4%
Foundation, 14%
Array cable, 2%
Transmission, 10%Turbine, 4%
Foundation, 4%
Array cable, 2%
Transmission, 4%
Planned maintenance,
7%
Unplanned service, 9%
Other OPEX, 3%Transmission OPEX, 5%
Market reports & industry opportunity mapping
Annual Market Report 2018 – 2023 forecastGlobally
Installed capacity by 2023: 61.3GW
- from 18,5 end 2017
19% growth annually
- up from 16% to ‘22
Europe
Installed capacity by 2023: 35.2GW
Annual growth expectations doubled since 2017
report
Asia
Installed capacity by 2023: 23.9GW
North America
Installed capacity by 2023: 2.1GW
0
20
40
60
80
0
3
6
9
12
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Cu
mu
lati
ve i
nsta
lled
cap
acit
y (
GW
)
An
nu
al in
sta
lled
cap
acit
y (
GW
)
Europe Asia North America Cumulative
Source: BVG Associates
19%
© BVG Associates 2018
A € 160 bn market over the 5 years to 2023
Up from €108 for the period from 2018 to 2022 as reported in the 2017 report
Annual average spend of €30 bn to reach
€38 bn in 2023 0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Expenditu
re (
€m
illio
n)
Project development Turbine
Foundation Array cable
Transmission Turbine installation
Foundation installation Array cable installation
Transmission installation OMS
Source: BVG Associates
..outlook to 2030
Source: BVG Associates / GWEC Global Wind 2017 Report
By 2030 the market will be truly global
GW addition/year
Strong growth in established and new offshore wind power markets
Installed capacity, GW
129.0
10.9
2015
43.5
2025
7.1
54.0
67.8
2030
0.7
9.2
29.9
24.3
2005
33.5
11.9
3.9
2020
77.3
+1.1GW
+4.3 GW
+8.8 GW
+10.3 GW
%#
Americas Asia Pacific Europe
CAGR
33%
23%
18%
11%
Source: Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), 1H 2018 offshore wind market outlook
Trends
Ørsted
E.ON
Innogy
Vattenfall
Macquarie Capital
Northland Power
Stadtwerke MünchenIberdrola
Siemens Gamesa Renewable EnergyOcean Breeze Energy
SSEEquinor
MasdarStatkraft
Sumitomo
PKA
Others
European developers share of installed capacity
LCOE focus
Auctions
Merchant market
Size of turbine
Globalisation – supply chain
OPEX
The European market – forecast to 2022
Europe leads globally
Europe’s forecast shows 19.2 GW of total installed capacity in 2018, reaching 35.2 GW by 2023, with a CAGR of 11%
The UK and the Netherlands are likely to contribute the most installed capacity by 2023, with 37% and 20% respectively
0
10
20
30
40
50
0
1
2
3
4
5
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23 Cum
ula
tive insta
lled c
apacity
(G
W)
Annual insta
lled c
apacity
(G
W)
BE DKFR DENL UKOther Europe Cumulative
Source: BVG Associates 11%
0
5
10
15
20
0
500
1000
1500
2000
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Cum
ula
tive insta
lled c
apacity (G
W)
Annual insta
lled c
apacity (M
W)
Year of f irst turbine installation
Annual Cumulative
Source: BVG Associates 10%
The European markets - UK
Capex & Opex• 2023 - €5.5 bn• 2019 - 2023 €25.6 bn• 71 % DEVEX and CAPEX. • 29 % OPEX
Main Players• Ørsted• Vattenfall• SSE• Scottish Power
Renewables • INNOGY• Equinor
• Siemens Gamesa• MHI Vestas• MPI Offshore
The European markets - Germany
0
4
8
12
0
600
1200
1800
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Cum
ula
tive insta
lled c
apacity (G
W)
Annual insta
lled c
apacity (M
W)
Year of f irst turbine installation
Annual Cumulative
Source: BVG Associates 2% Capex & Opex• Expenditure 2023 €3.2 bn• 2019 - 2023 €11.4 bn• 58% DEVEX and CAPEX• 42% OPEX.
Main Players• Orsted• EnBW• Northland Power• E.ON
• Ibedrola• WPD• Innogy• Vattenfall
The Asian Market
0
10
20
30
0
2
4
6
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Cum
ula
tive insta
lled c
apacity
(G
W)
Annual insta
lled c
apacity
(G
W)
CN JPKO TWOther Asia Cumulative
Source: BVG Associates and Renewable Energy Solutions
36%
Capex & Opex• Multicontracting preferred by developers
to gain experience, developers tend to contract a greater number of individual contracts
• Government involvement in projects coupled with support from major local conglomerates
Main Players• China Longyuan
(China GuodianGroup)
• CGN Group• SPIC• China Huaneng
Group
• CNOOC• Goldwind• Dongfang Electric
Corporation• Jiangsu Hangtong
Ship Heavy Industry
• Ming Yang
The North American Market
0
0.6
1.2
1.8
2.4
0.00
0.25
0.50
0.75
1.00
'19 '20 '21 '22 '23
Cum
ula
tive insta
lled c
apacity
(G
W)
Annual insta
lled c
apacity
(G
W)
US Canada Cumulative
106%Source: BVG Associates and Renewable Resources International
Capex & Opex• Ørsted and Equinor etc are likely to
multicontract with mature, global suppliers, which may collaborate with North American partners
• EPCI contracting is likely to be preferred by less experienced US developers
Main Players• Orsted• Dominion Energy• Massachusetts
Clean Energy Centre
• Deepwater Wind
• Equinor• Avangrid
Renewables• US Wind• CiP• GE
Emerging Markets
Estonia
Plan to install up to 500MW of offshore wind capacity by 2018
No offshore wind installed capacity so reaching this target is unlikely. Additional project of 1 100MW expected to be commissioned in 2021
Finland
3 demonstration projects, total capacity of 32MW.
2 GW of planned offshore wind capacity.
Ireland
Approval of Renewable Electricity Support Scheme (RESS) in July 2018
Renewable energy auctions will be held annually from 2019-2025 with auction capacities ranging from 1 GW to 4 GW.
Poland
The total auction budget is PLN 87 600 million (EUR 20 300 million), of which offshore wind farms will be eligible for up PLN 450 per MWh (EUR 121 per MWh).
No offshore wind farms operating or under construction however, the market is likely to grow to 2 GW by 2030.
Australia
Australia's Clean Energy Innovation Fund was established in 2015 to provide AUD $1 billion to support offshore technologies (including offshore wind)
Canada
Canada has no installed offshore wind capacity. In 2016 the government of Ontario, announced it is to keep a moratorium on offshore wind projects until potential environmental impacts are fully understood
India
India has the world’s fourth largest onshore wind market (33 GW of installed capacity).
The government targets for offshore wind are 5 GW by 2022 and 30 GW by 2030.
Vietnam
Vietnam has almost 100 MW of capacity installed in the Bac Lieu offshore wind farm, installed in phases between 2013 and 2015
100 MW is currently under construction with potential for an additional 200 MW to be development at that site
A brief status floating wind
In 2017, the world's largest floating foundation project (Hywind Scotland), was installed.
A second floating demonstration in Scottish waters, Kincardine, is completing the first part of its installation in second half of 2018.
Four floating demonstration projects in France received consent (Golfe du Lion, Groix & Belle-Île, Grussian and Provence Grand Large) with construction beginning from 2020.
Principle Power and Aker Solutions is in the early stages of planning their 150 MW project off the West Coast of the US. They have stated that this is a ‘pre-commercial’ project.
Equinor planning to electrify parts of Tampen O&G field by use of Hywind FWT
There are currently no commercial floating projects in development
Principle Power reports start of construction for “WindPlus’ 25 MW WindFloat Atlantic” approximately 20 km offshore Viana do Castelo in Northern Portugal
