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Slide no. 1/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
GSM/3G MARKET UPDATEas per May 17, 2005
Global mobile Suppliers Associationwww. gsacom.com
byPeter Reinisch
Vice President GSA
Slide no. 2/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Many of the charts in this document are downloadable by registered site users at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Worldwide GSM subscribers counter running 24/7 at www.gsacom.com
IMPORTANT NOTE
Slide no. 3/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Open standardized technologyInteroperability, roaming, competition, roadmap security, end-to-end efficiency
Economies of scale 1.36 billion GSM users currently GSM has more advanced learning curve GSM has sustainable cost advantage
Growth GSM > 80% of all new users
Source: EMC 2003
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
Millions
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
Mobile subscriptions
GSM
CDMA
9001000
2004
(Feb)
Business fundamentals driving GSM success
Slide no. 4/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Mobile technology growth, market share
GSM/3G statistics and downloadable charts at www.gsacom.com/news/statistics.php4
Slide no. 5/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Mobile subscribers growth– China, India
Slide no. 6/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Mobile subscriber growth- Latin and Central America
Slide no. 7/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
cdmaOnecdmaOne
GSMGSM
TDMA TDMA
2G
PDC PDC
CDMA2000 1x
CDMA2000 1x
First Step into 3G
GPRSGPRS 90%
10%
Evolution of Mobile Systems to 3G- drivers are capacity, data speeds, lower cost of delivery for revenue growth
EDGEEDGE
WCDMA
WCDMA
CDMA2000 1x EV/DV
CDMA2000 1x EV/DV
3G phase 1 Evolved 3G
3GPP CoreNetwork
CDMA2000 1x EV/DO
CDMA2000 1x EV/DO
HSDPA
HSDPA
Expected market share
EDGEEvolution
EDGEEvolution
Slide no. 8/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Performance evolution of cellular technologies
Slide no. 9/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Laptop Browsing ( Downloads) CDMA – The average download speed was about 50 kbps. EDGE – The average download speed was about 160 kbps.
Internet Streaming (Live TV)
CDMA – The TV was not playing continuously but with breaks. EDGE – The TV was playing continuously and smoothly.
Video Streaming on Mobile (Live Videos)
CDMA – not possible at present. EDGE – A smooth play of movie trailer.
Practical performance of EDGE and CDMA2000 1X- Observations from a GSM/EDGE and CDMA market
Slide no. 10/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Wildstrom (columnist)
I found downloads consistently hit speeds at a bit over 300 kilobits per second, at the low end of Verizon's claimed range of 300 to 500 kbps.
No standardized QoS mechanisms
Only best-effort services, e.g. bearers for video telephony or streaming not supported.
Over-dimensioning of 50-150% required for delivery of real time services (e.g. streaming or video-telephony
Typical speed for packet data services are 300-350 kbps in commercial networks (includes reduction from packet overheads)
Standardized QoS mechanisms for conversational, streaming, interactive and background services
WCDMA delivers efficiently virtually any service, including video telephony
QoS management and wideband signal deliver highest spectral and cost- efficiency
EVDOWCDMA
Performance of WCDMA and EV-DO
Slide no. 11/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
First steps to 3G 270 commercial GPRS networks 141 networks deploying GPRS/EDGE 84 commercial EDGE networks (source: GSA, May 16, 2005) 121 commercial Cdma2000 1x networks (source: CDG, May 13, 2005)
3G WCDMA: 134 licenses awarded 71 commercial WCDMA networks (source: GSAMay 12, 2005) 22 commercial CDMA 1x EV-DO networks (source: CDG, May 13, 2005)
Adoption of different mobile standards
Evolved 3G HSDPA: all WCDMA operators expected to upgrade to HSDPA (SW upgrade to BTS) CDMA 1x EV-DV: limited industry support
No. of commercial networks per mobile data standard
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
EDGE/GPRS CDMA2000-1x WCDMA 1xEV-DO
Slide no. 12/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Data revenue from mobile services
Cumulative revenue from mobile data services earned by the 30 leading operators reached USD 10 billion during Q3/2004. Data services revenue is growing on a wide front.
Source: Informa Telecoms and Media
Slide no. 13/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Global mobile data subscriber growth
Source: Informa Telecoms and Media
Mo
bil
e d
ata
sub
scr i
be
r s
mil
lio
ns
Slide no. 14/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Over 270 operators have launched MMS
A dramatic shift towards camera phones in EMEA market in 2004, achieving 56% of the market. During Q3/2004, close to 40 million of 62 million phones shipped (Source: Canalys)i.e. two-thirds, were camera phones.
Color screens on over 80% of devices in Europe (compared to 49% in Q3/2003). Almost three quarters of new European mobiles are camera-phones, according to IDC. Camera phones achieved year-on-year growth of over 600% to total 72% of phones sold (compared to 11% in Q3/ 2003). The volume of mega pixel camera phones also began to grow in Q3/2004.
Slide no. 15/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
GSA research to April 12, 2005 confirms:
134 WCDMA licenses in 48 countries
71 commercial WCDMA operators in 31 countries
6 operators at pre-commercial stage
WCDMA subscribers: 24.1 millions*
166 WCDMA/HSDPA devices models in the market
*(WCMDA subs at March 31, 2005 source Informa Telecoms & Media)
WCDMA - mature technologyglobally deployed in commercial service
Registered GSA website users from suppliers who are member organisations of GSAand other qualified site users can download the list of commercial and pre-commercial networks
Contained in 3G/ WCDMA Deployments Worldwide - www.gsacom.com
Slide no. 16/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
166 WCDMA models in the market
Subscriber growth is now driven by a wider range of competitive service offerings, a wider variety of terminals in the market, and maturing technology
Slide no. 17/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
WCDMA – 25 device suppliers
Amoi
BenQ
Fujitsu
Hisense
HTC
Huawei
LG
Mitsubishi
Motorola
NEC
Nokia
Novatel Wireless
NTT DoCoMo (Raku Raku)
Panasonic
Pantech
Samsung
Sanyo
Seiko
Sharp
Siemens
Sierra Wireless
Sony Ericsson
Toshiba
Vodafone (Option Wireless PC card)
ZTE
Slide no. 18/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
EDGE - strong take up globally
141 operators in 79 countries are deploying EDGE 84 commercial networks in 52 countries now on all continents
Slide no. 19/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
EDGE devices shipping or announced
113 GSM/EDGE devices are in the market (May 1, 2005)
EDGE is standard in most new data- enabled phones
21 suppliers are in the market
Slide no. 20/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
EDGE (Enhanced GPRS) uses existing spectrum and sites Incremental investment for triple GPRS data rates, more voice capacity Natural evolution for all GSM operators - fastest path to 3G WCDMA in new IMT 2000 spectrum for highest rate 3G services/applications e.g. video calls WCDMA leverages GSM scale plus Japan/Korea markets for global service Gradual investment; step-by-step evolution; builds on existing applications/service portfolios GSM/EDGE/WCDMA for simple service migration, similar user experience, service continuity, roaming; high investment re-usability Integrated EDGE/WCDMA devices available; EDGE/WCDMA handover is commercial reality
GSM Operators path to 3G – combining EDGE & WCDMA
complementaryproven
mature
opentechnologies
Slide no. 21/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Combined WCDMA-EDGE networks
AIS, ThailandÅlands Mobiltelefon, Finland
Batelco, BahrainCellcom, Israel
Cingular Wireless, USACSL, Hong Kong
Dialog GSM, Sri LankaElisa, FinlandEMT, Estonia
Eurotel Praha, CzechEurotel Bratislava, Slovak
GPTC, LibyaMaxis, Malaysia
Mobilkom AustriaMobitel, Bulgaria
Mobily, Saudia ArabiaMTC Vodafone, Bahrain
MTN, South AfricaNetcom, NorwayOrange, France
Orange, RomaniaOrange Slovensko, Slovak
Oskar Mobile, CzechPannon GSM, Hungary
Polkomtel, PolandRogers Wireless - Fido, Canada
Si. Mobil – Vodafone, Slovenia
Swisscom, SwitzerlandTelenor, NorwayT-Mobile, CroatiaT-Mobile, Czech
T-Mobile, HungaryT-Mobile, USA
Telfort, NetherlandsTeliaSonera, DenmarkTeliaSonera, FinlandTeliaSonera, SwedenTIM Hellas, Greece
TIM, ItalyVIP Net, Croatia
At least 40 operators are delivering 3G services on combined WCDMA-EDGE networks. WCDMA and EDGE are comple-mentary technologies ensuring lower capital cost, optimum flexibility and efficiencies
Slide no. 22/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
HSDPA(High Speed Downlink Packet Access)
HSDPA performance improvements are achieved by:
bringing key functions e.g. scheduling of data packet transmission and processing of retransmissions into the base station – i.e. closer to the air interface using a short frame length to further accelerate packet scheduling for transmission employing incremental redundancy for minimizing the air-interface load caused by retransmissions adopting a new transport channel type - High Speed Downlink Shared Channel (HS-DSCH) to facilitate air interface channel sharing between several users adapting the modulation scheme and coding according to the quality of the radio link.
Slide no. 23/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Backed by leading vendors including:
Ericsson, Nokia, and Siemens
Supported by leading operators including:
• Cingular Wireless,
• TeliaSonera
• Telecom Italia Mobile
EDGE Evolution - first steps taken
PRESS RELEASE March 10th 2005
www.gsacom.com/news/gsa_174.php4
GSA announces its support for the new 3GPP study items on EDGE Evolution.
EDGE Evolution is envisaged to bring on average 2 – 3 fold data speeds com-pared to EDGE rates today, higher voice and data capacity and improved spectral efficiency.
The first standardization release, 3GPP Release 7, is envisaged to be ready in 2006
Operators have expressed strong interest and need !
Slide no. 24/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Market take-up
Open standards & systems
proprietary systems
Note: conceptual illustration
TerminalTerminal
ServerServer
Open & Standardized
interfaces
Openness fuelling market growth and innovation
Slide no. 25/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
In comparison, there are virtually no local developers for any single proprietary service standard, and only a maximum of a few thousands in each globally. Meeting the evolving consumer demands in all segments with
a proprietary platform is not possible in practice Prohibitive cost and time required to recruit and maintain a
proprietary developer community
Over 4 Million Java-developers
Over 500 Million
Java-enabled GSM terminals
Customers want locally relevant applications- enabled only with an open, globally adopted platform
There are millions of application developers globally, using OMA - standardized development tools This community is able to produce any service that is demanded from various local consumer segments
Slide no. 26/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Global average roaming revenue is today 4%Typically up to 25% of revenues may be contributed from roamingIn the GSM community over 20,000+ roaming agreements are in place
Indirect impact of roaming plays a major role in customer acquisition Virtually all potential data users require roaming as a basic part of service
offering.
Only GSM provides automatic roaming facilities globally
Service roaming globally is also required with 3G
Service roaming globally possible only with GSM-family
Slide no. 27/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
Improved performance, decreasing cost of delivery
Typical average bit rates (peak rates higher)
WEB browsingCorporate data accessStreaming audio/video
Voice & SMS Presence/location
xHTML browsingApplication downloadingE-mail
MMS picture / video
Multitasking
3G-specific services take advantage of higher bandwidth
and/or real-time QoS
3G-specific services take advantage of higher bandwidth
and/or real-time QoS
A number of mobile services are bearer
independent in nature
A number of mobile services are bearer
independent in nature
HSDPA1-10Mbps
WCDMA128-384
kbps
EGPRS80-160kbps
GPRS30-40kbps
GSM10-40kbps
Push-to-talk
Broadbandin wide area
Video sharing Video telephonyReal-time IPmultimedia and gamesMulticasting
Services roadmap
CD
MA
200
0-E
VD
O
CD
MA
200
0-E
VD
V
CD
MA
200
0 1
x
Slide no. 28/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
3G is relevant today for all markets
Capacity booster; operational and spectrum efficiencies
Higher data speeds; all data services improve with speed enhances user experience
Revenue growth with new data-enabled services
Key for competitive differentiation
DGE: small upgrade to GPRS, big lift in performance, fast market entry
WCDMA: in new spectrum at 2GHz (IMT-2000 core band)
EDGE + WCDMA complementary and long term
Evolved WCDMA (HSDPA/HSUPA) for mass market mobile IP multimedia
Slide no. 29/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
About GSA - Global mobile Suppliers Association-representing GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers globally
GSA is the only representative body for the GSM/3G supplier industry, bringing together all views on GSM/EDGE/WCDMA
Objectives to strengthen promotion of GSM world-wide in new and existing markets to support operators and promote the evolution of GSM as the platform for delivery of third-generation (3G) multimedia services
GSA Executive Committee in 2005 comprises the leading GSM/EDGE/WCDMA suppliers: Ericsson, Lucent, Nokia, and Siemens
Benefits of membership/join GSA – see www.gsacom.com/about/index.php4
Slide no. 30/32Canto 2005 in St. Kitts
Global mobile Suppliers Association © 2005
GSM/3G Resources- GSM/EDGE/WCDMA/HSDPA
GMD™Newsletter
www.gsacom.com
GSM/3G Operators Zone for GSM-family operatorsregister at www.gsacom.com
Push to Talk on a Mobile Phone (Opinion Paper)
www.gsacom.com
GSM/3G Network Update
www.gsacom.com
Services/market/technology updateswww.gsacom.com/gmd/index.php4
WCDMA Databank – deployments, deviceswww.gsacom.com
EDGE Databank – deployments, devices, platforms
www.gsacom.com