Global Markets Roundup Assets Performance (in $) Number of ... · Emerging Markets Equities Developed Markets Year-to-Date Since October 1st Assets Performance (in $) Source: NBG

See page 12 for disclosures and analyst certification

1

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Gold

Oil

Global Corp Bonds

Global Gov Bonds

EquitiesEmerging Markets

EquitiesDeveloped Markets

Year-to-Date Since October 1st

Assets Performance (in $)

Source: NBG Research, Bloomberg

%-10

-8

-6

-4

-2

0

2

4

6

8

Jan-

17

Mar

-17

May

-17

Jul-

17

Sep-

17

Nov

-17

Jan-

18

Mar

-18

May

-18

Jul-

18

Sep-

18

Nov

-18

Jan-

19

Mar

-19

May

-19

Jul-

19

Sep-

19

# of Central Banks

Rising Rates

Cutting Rates

Number of G20 Central Banks Rising/Cutting Rates

Source: NBG Research, Bank of England Monetary Policy Report

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N A T I O N A L B A N Κ

O F G R E E C E

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Global Markets Roundup

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | November 19, 2019

Trade news flows continue to shape risk-sentiment, with attention now turning to November PMIs

Ilias TsirigotakisAC

Head of Global

Markets Research

210-3341517

[email protected]

Panagiotis Bakalis

210-3341545

[email protected]

Vasiliki Karagianni

210-3341548

[email protected]

Table of Contents

Overview_p1

Economics & Markets_p2,3 Outlook_p4

Forecasts_p5 Event Calendar_p6

Markets Monitor_p7

ChartRoom_p8,9

Market Valuation_p10,11

US Equities continued to rise, with the S&P 500 Index (SPX) at 3120. However, the reflation trade,

that has supported risk assets since early October, weakened in the past week, with Emerging

Market equities down by 1.5% and Speculative Grade corporate spreads increasing. Government

Bond yields declined in core markets, while euro area periphery bond spreads widened across the

board (see Markets).

Risk appetite was curbed by weaker-than-expected Chinese data and trade news. Indeed, October

high-frequency Chinese economic indicators disappointed (see Economics). As Chinese real GDP

growth oscillates around 6%, the Government may respond with modest infrastructure, fiscal and

monetary easing. Indeed, the PBOC surprised markets on Monday, when it cut a key rate slightly (by

5 bps to 2.5%) for the first time since 2015. At the same time, in the past week, President Trump

threatened to raise tariffs significantly on China if a trade agreement was not reached.

Having said that, the US and China plan to conclude their “in depth” talks in the coming weeks, in

order to finalize the “Phase one” agreement reached on October 11th. Such an event would suggest

a low probability of re-escalation in trade tensions, at least until the November 2020 US Presidential

Elections. Recall that the weighted average tariff rate on bilateral trade has increased from 3% to

16% (imports from China) and from 7% to 22% (imports from the US).

The global monetary easing cycle (initiated in July) resulted in a considerable number of G20 central

banks cutting policy interest rates (see graph below). As monetary policy affects the economy with a

time lag, the easing of financial conditions during 2019 is expected to support economic activity

during 2020, despite the fact that the Federal Reserve and the ECB are likely to remain on hold.

Following gains of 20% year-to-date, the MSCI AC World Index trades on a forward P/E ratio of

15.7x, modestly above (+14% or +1.1 STDEV) its 2004-2019 average. Regional differences are

significant, with the US equity market appearing the most expensive (+18% or 1.4 STDEV above

average, while Japan, EMEA and the UK are the preferred value trades based on P/E metrics (see

graphs page 3).

Rising bond yields since early October, with the BBG/Barclays Global Government Bond yield up by

15 bps to 0.9%, did little to curtail the equity rally, as the yield increase mainly reflected better

prospects for the global economy (from a low base), alongside declining expectations for additional

central bank easing.

Higher yields should not impede the equity market rising as long as trade tensions continue to de-

escalate and global growth bottoms out as expected. The correlation between changes in 10-Year

US Treasury yields and the SPX 12-month forward P/E is positive, explaining 35% of the P/E variance

according to our calculations (see graph page 3). A negative scenario for equities includes: i) a

renewed escalation in trade tensions; and ii) political woes, including Trump’s impeachment probe,

Hong Kong, Brexit and Italian politics, resulting in safe-haven demand bids for Government bonds.

mailto:[email protected]


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section

National Bank of Greece | Economic Research Division | Global Markets Analysis

2

US retail sales increased at a healthy pace entering Q4

US nominal retail sales performed broadly as expected in

October. Specifically, in value terms, the so-called “control group”,

as it feeds into the calculation for GDP (i.e., excluding autos, gas,

food services and building materials) rose by 0.3% mom,

compared with a downwardly revised (by 0.1 pp) -0.1% mom in

September, in line with consensus estimates. Annual growth stood

at 4.2% yoy, a still robust reading, albeit having decelerated

compared with a peak of +5.1% yoy in August. Overall, private

consumption appears set to maintain healthy growth in the current

quarter, supported, inter alia, by firm labor market conditions,

albeit the pace of increase will likely ease compared with the

+2.9% qoq saar recorded in Q3:19, probably towards 2% qoq saar.

The decline in US manufacturing output continues

US industrial production was subdued in October, with the

annual pace of growth at -1.1% yoy, a 3–year low. More

importantly, the less volatile manufacturing production (75% of

total) declined by 0.6% mom, largely in line with consensus

estimates (-0.5% mom in September). It should also be noted that

the decline in October was mostly due to the strike by the United

Auto Workers union (which began in mid-September and ended

late in October -- output of motor vehicles and parts fell by 7.1%

mom). Nevertheless, manufacturing production excluding motor

vehicles and parts was also weak (-0.1% mom). The annual pace of

growth for manufacturing production stood at -1.5% yoy, the

weakest outcome since December 2015 and well below a peak of

+3.5% yoy in September 2018. Overall, business investment is

expected to remain subdued in the current quarter, following two

consecutive quarters of decline (by -2% qoq saar on average).

US core inflation was modestly below expectations in

October

Headline CPI accelerated by 0.1 pp to 1.8% yoy in October,

mainly due to an increase in food prices (+2.1% yoy | 1.8% yoy in

September), while the energy index declined by -4.2% yoy

compared with -4.7% yoy in September. Core CPI declined by 0.1

pp to 2.3% yoy (0.2% mom vs 0.1% mom in September), below

consensus estimates for an unchanged outcome. The weakness

was mainly due to the highly volatile categories of apparel (-2.3%

yoy vs -0.3% in September) and used cars and trucks (+1.4% yoy vs

+2.6% yoy in September). Note that Fed Chair Powell, in his

Congressional testimony, stated that a return of inflation to near

the central bank’s symmetric 2% target is likely, albeit “persistent

below-target inflation could lead to an unwelcome downward slide

in longer-term inflation expectations”. The PCE deflator in

September (the Fed’s preferred measure for gauging inflationary

pressures) stood at 1.3% yoy and the core figure at 1.7% yoy.

According to the Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, PCE growth is

expected to increase to 1.4% yoy in October and its core

counterpart to remain broadly stable at 1.7% yoy.

Japanese GDP growth was weaker than expected in Q3

Japanese GDP increased by 0.2% qoq saar in Q3:19, below

consensus estimates for 0.9%. Nevertheless, on the back of

strong expansion in the previous three quarters (+1.8% qoq saar

on average from Q4:18 to Q2:19), annual growth stood at a

satisfactory 1.4% yoy in Q3:19 from +0.8% yoy in Q2:19. The

modest disappointment compared with expectations in Q3:19 GDP

was mainly due to private consumption that increased by 1.4%

qoq saar (0.8 pps contribution to the headline figure | +2.4% qoq

saar in Q2:19). A larger increase of 2.4% qoq saar was expected by

consensus, supported by frontloading of demand ahead of the

consumption tax hike in October (from 8% to 10%). Business

investment rose by 3.5% qoq saar (+2.8% qoq in the previous

quarter), largely in line with consensus estimates and adding 0.6

pps to overall GDP growth. Government consumption (+2.2%

qoq saar | +0.4 pps contribution to the headline figure),

residential investment (+5.7% qoq saar | +0.2 pps) and public

investment (+3.4% qoq saar | +0.2 pps) were also positive for

overall GDP growth. On the other hand, net exports subtracted

0.6 pps from the headline figure (-1.1 pp in Q2:19), as exports

declined by 2.6% qoq saar and imports rose by 0.9% qoq saar.

Furthermore, substantial inventory destocking occurred in Q3:19

(-1.3 pps to the headline figure). It should be noted that

historically, the GDP components of business investment and

inventories, are meaningfully revised in the 2nd GDP estimate (due

on December 9th), which incorporates much more inclusive data for

the corporate sector. Looking forward, a contraction in GDP is

anticipated in Q4:19 (consensus for -2.7% qoq saar), due to a

fallback in demand in view of the aforementioned consumption tax

increase and natural disasters (typhoons). As a result, annual

growth is expected to ease to slightly below its potential in Q4:19

(consensus: +0.4% yoy | Bank of Japan’s estimate for potential

growth: 0.7% yoy) with Calendar Year 2019 real GDP growth of

0.9% from 0.8% in 2018.

Chinese activity data entered Q4 on a soft note

The latest high frequency activity data came out below

consensus estimates. Specifically, growth in retail sales (in value

terms) was 7.2% yoy in October, compared with 7.8% yoy in

September and expectations for an unchanged outcome (+7.6%

yoy on average in Q3:19). Note, however, that the latest weakness

could, at least in part, be related to consumers deferring purchases

until “Singles Day” (November 11th) -- a day associated with

substantial (mostly) online offers. As the popularity of “Singles

Day” has grown in recent years, purchase deferrals may have been

more profound in October 2019, compared with October 2018,

thus putting downward pressure on the annual growth of retail

sales. More importantly, industrial production growth decelerated

by 1.1 pp to 4.7% yoy, well below expectations for 5.4% yoy

(average of +5.0% yoy in Q3:19). Finally, fixed asset investment

decelerated modestly by 0.2 pps to 5.2% yoy (consensus for an

unchanged outcome). The latest activity readings came in

conjunction with slightly weaker credit growth in October.

Indeed, official total social financing (TSF) rose by 10.7% yoy,

versus 10.8% yoy in September. Bank loan growth was 12.4% yoy

(12.5% in the previous month), while the contraction in “shadow

banking” (comprising mainly acceptance bills, entrusted loans)

continues at a broadly stable pace (-7.8% yoy in October versus -

8.0% yoy in September). Recall that “shadow banking” now

represents 10.2% of total TSF (peak of 15.1% in March 2017).

Overall, the latest data suggest some downside risks for consensus

estimates for GDP growth of 6.0% yoy in Q4:19 (stable compared

with Q3:19). Developments in the trade conflict with the US and

the intensity of domestic policy support (monetary, fiscal) remain

key factors for the economic impetus.


O F G R E E C E

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economics & Markets Section


3

Quote of the week: “We see the current stance of monetary

policy as likely to remain appropriate as long as incoming

information about the economy remains broadly consistent

with our outlook of moderate economic growth, a strong

labor market, and inflation near our symmetric 2%

objective.”, Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, November 13th

2019.

Equities

Global equity markets rose in the past week, with most of the increase

occurring on Friday due to positive trade headlines. Overall, the MSCI ACWI

ended the week up by 0.4% (+20% ytd), with developed markets (+0.6% wow)

over-performing their emerging markets peers (-1.5% wow). Russia (-1.3% wow)

and China (-2.4% wow) led the decline, with the latter hit by weaker-than-

expected economic data (retail sales, industrial production). In the US, the

S&P500 rose by 0.9% wow with Healthcare (+2.4% wow) and Real Estate (+1.9%

wow) supporting the increase. Note that Technology recorded strong gains

(+1.3% wow), even though Cisco (-7.7% wow) weighed on sentiment after

announcing it expects its first quarterly decline in revenue in more than two

years due to increasing global economic uncertainty and weaker demand.

Meanwhile, as the US Q3:19 earnings season concludes, with 93% of companies

reporting actual results, 75% have exceeded analyst estimates and EPS growth

stands at -2.3% yoy vs estimates for -3.8% yoy at the beginning of the earnings

season. On the other side of the Atlantic, the EuroStoxx was broadly stable

(+0.3% wow), with Banks recording losses (-1.8% wow). Regarding the Q3

earnings season, with 80% of companies reporting actual results, 58% have

exceeded analyst estimates, with EPS growth at +2% yoy vs estimates for -1%

yoy at the beginning of the earnings season. In Spain, the IBEX35 was down by -

1.4% wow, with the Banking sector leading the decline (-4.7%), due to increased

political uncertainty following the elections outcome. Bankia (-6% wow) and

Caixabank (-5.7% wow) under-performed heavily due to their vast exposure to

the domestic economy.

Fixed Income Government Bond yields declined in the past week, due to concerns over

whether a “Phase-one” US – China trade agreement could be reached as

well as mixed economic data. Specifically, the US 10-year yield fell by 11 bps

wow to 1.83%, while its 2-year counterpart fell by 7 bps wow to 1.61%. Similarly,

in the UK, the 10-year Gilt fell by 6 bps to 0.73%. In Germany, the 10-year Bund

yield fell by 7 bps to -0.33%, while periphery bond spreads over bund rose in

Italy (+11 bps to 157 bps), in Spain (+12 bps to 77 bps) and in Portugal (+12 bps

to 71 bps). In a similar vein, corporate bond spreads widened. Specifically,

euro area HY spreads rose by 10 bps wow to 363 bps, while their US

counterparts rose by 6 bps to 406 bps. In the investment grade spectrum, euro

area spreads were up by 3 bps to 102 bps, while US IG spreads were broadly

stable at 112 bps.

FX and Commodities In foreign exchange markets, the British pound appreciated in the past

week, as developments on the UK political front reinforced the possibility

of a Brexit based on the recent agreement with the EU. Overall, Sterling rose

by 0.6% wow against the euro to €/0.856 and by 1% wow against the US dollar

to $1.29. The Japanese Yen rose slightly (+0.4% against the USD to ¥108.77 and

+0.8% year-to-date), due to increased safe haven demand.

In commodities, oil prices rose moderately in the past week, albeit with

high intra-day volatility due to mixed news on the trade front. US oil

inventories rose for a 3rd consecutive week, by +2.2 million barrels to 449 million

barrels for the week ending November 8th. Overall, Brent ended the week up by

1.5% to $63.9/barrel and WTI rose by 0.8% to $57.7/barrel. Gold prices rose in

the past week (+0.6% to $1468/ounce) benefitting from safe haven demand and

a slightly weaker US Dollar. Note that, since the end of September, gold is

trading in the tight range ($1470-$1510), due to mixed news on trade.

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8

1999-2019 Current

Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datatsream, Bloomberg

S&P500 12-month Forward PE & US 10Y Yield

S&P

500

12-m

on

th F

orw

ard

PE

US 10Y Bond Yield (%)

Graph 3.

Graph 2.

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

22

24

26

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

MSCI ACWI Average 1987-2019

Average 2004-2019

MSCI ACWI 12-month Forward PE

Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datatsream

0,0

2,5

5,0

7,5

10,0

12,5

15,0

17,5

20,0

Current Average 2004-2019

12-month Forward PE across major markets

Source: NBG Research, Thomson Reuters Datasream

Graph 1.

NBG Global Markets Roundup | NBG 12-Month View & Key Factors for Global Markets


4


O F G R E E C E

Eq

uit

y M

ark

ets

G

overn

men

t B

on

ds

Fo

reig

n E

xch

an

ge

US Euro Area Japan UK

Reduced short-term tail

risks

Higher core bond yields

Current account surplus

▬ Sluggish growth

▬ Deflation concerns

▬ The ECB’s monetary

policy to remain extra

loose (Targeted-LTROs,

ABSs, Quantitative

Easing)

Safe-haven demand

▬ Fed is expected to cut rates

in H2:2019

▬ Mid-2018 rally probably out

of steam

Safe haven demand

More balanced economic

growth recovery (long-

term)

Inflation is bottoming out

▬ Additional Quantitative

Easing by the Bank of

Japan if inflation does not

approach 2%

Transitions phase

negotiations

The BoE is expected to

increase short-term policy

rates assuming WA deal

▬ Sizeable Current account

deficit

▬ Elevated Policy

uncertainty to remain due

to the outcome of the

Referendum and the

negotiating process

Valuations appear

excessive compared

with long-term

fundamentals

▬ Political Risks

▬ Fragile growth outlook

▬ Medium-term inflation

expectations remain

low

▬ ECB QE net purchases

▬ ECB QE “stock” effect

Valuations appear rich with

term-premium below 0%

Underlying inflation

pressures if Fed seek

makeup strategies

▬ Global search for yield by

non-US investors continues

▬ Safe haven demand

▬ Fed is expected to cut rates

in H2:2019

Elevated Policy



Brexit negotiating process

Inflation overshooting due

to GBP weakness feeds

through inflation

expectations

The BoE is expected to

increase short-term policy

rates assuming WA deal

▬ Slowing economic growth

post-Brexit

Sizeable fiscal deficits

Restructuring efforts to

be financed by fiscal

policy measures

▬ Safe haven demand

▬ Extremely dovish

central bank

▬ Yield-targeting of 10-

Year JGB at around 0%

Still high equity risk

premium relative to other

regions

Credit conditions gradual

turn more favorable

Small fiscal loosening in

2019

▬ 2020 EPS estimates may

turn pessimistic due to

plateuning economic

growth

▬ Political uncertainty (Italy,

Brexit) could intensify

Fiscal loosening will support

the economy & companies’

earnings

2019 EPS growth

expectations have stabilized

Cash-rich corporates will

lead to share buybacks and

higher dividends (de-

equitization)

▬ Peaking profit margins

▬ Protectionism and trade

wars

Still aggressive QE and “yield-

curve” targeting by the BoJ

Upward revisions in corporate

earnings

▬ Signs of policy fatigue

regarding structural reforms

and fiscal discipline

▬ Strong appetite for foreign

assets

▬ JPY appreciation in a risk-off

scenario could hurt exporters

65% of FTSE100 revenues

from abroad

Undemanding valuations

in relative terms

High UK exposure to the

commodities sector

assuming the oil rally re-

emerges

▬ Elevated Policy



Brexit negotiating process

Neutral Neutral/Positive Neutral

Slightly higher yields

expected

Higher yields expected

Stable yields expected

Higher yields expected but

with Brexit risk premia

working on both directions

Broadly Flat EUR

against the USD with

upside risks towards

$1.15

Neutral/Negative

Higher GBP expected but

with Brexit risk premia

working on both directions

Broadly Flat USD

against the EUR with

upside risks towards

$1.15

Slightly higher JPY

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic & Markets Forecasts


5


O F G R E E C E

2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19a Q4:19f 2019f

2,3 2,9 3,2 3,1 2,5 2,9 2,7 2,3 2,0 2,2 2,3

- 2,6 3,5 2,9 1,1 - 3,1 2,0 1,9 1,6 -

Private Consumption 2,6 1,7 4,0 3,5 1,4 3,0 1,1 4,6 2,9 2,1 2,6

Government Consumption 0,7 1,9 2,6 2,1 -0,4 1,7 2,9 4,8 2,0 1,9 2,3

Investment 4,2 5,5 5,2 0,7 2,7 4,6 3,2 -1,4 -1,3 2,8 1,4

Residential 3,5 -5,2 -3,7 -4,0 -4,6 -1,5 -1,1 -2,9 5,1 2,7 -1,7

Non-residential 4,4 8,8 7,9 2,1 4,8 6,4 4,4 -1,0 -3,0 1,9 2,3

Inventories Contribution 0,0 0,2 -1,5 2,5 0,1 0,1 0,5 -1,0 0,0 -0,2 0,2

Net Exports Contribution -0,4 0,0 0,7 -2,4 -0,4 -0,4 0,8 -0,8 -0,1 -0,1 -0,3

Exports 3,5 0,8 5,8 -6,2 1,5 3,0 4,2 -5,7 0,7 1,6 -0,1

Imports 4,7 0,6 0,3 8,6 3,5 4,4 -1,5 0,0 1,2 1,6 1,6

Inflation (3) 2,1 2,2 2,7 2,6 2,2 2,4 1,6 1,8 1,7 2,1 1,8

2017a Q1:18a Q2:18a Q3:18a Q4:18a 2018a Q1:19a Q2:19a Q3:19f Q4:19f 2019f

2,5 2,6 2,2 1,6 1,2 1,9 1,3 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,2

- 1,1 1,5 0,8 1,4 - 1,7 0,8 0,9 1,1 -

Private Consumption 1,8 1,7 0,7 0,7 1,5 1,4 1,4 0,8 1,5 1,4 1,2

Government Consumption 1,5 0,6 1,5 0,5 1,6 1,1 1,7 1,4 1,8 1,5 1,5

Investment 3,8 1,7 5,1 3,1 6,5 2,4 1,9 24,6 -15,4 0,9 4,5

Inventories Contribution 0,1 0,4 0,1 0,6 -0,8 0,0 -1,1 -0,1 -0,3 -0,2 -0,4

Net Exports Contribution 0,5 -0,7 -0,3 -0,9 -0,3 0,4 1,4 -4,6 3,7 0,0 -0,3

Exports 5,7 -2,3 4,0 1,6 3,6 3,3 4,3 0,7 1,1 1,3 2,5

Imports 5,0 -1,1 5,1 3,9 4,7 2,7 1,6 11,5 -6,5 1,4 3,4

Inflation 1,5 1,3 1,7 2,1 1,9 1,8 1,4 1,4 0,9 1,2 1,3

a: Actual, f: Forecasts, 1. Seasonally adjusted YoY growth rate, 2. Seasonally adjusted annualized QoQ growth rate, 3. Year-to-year average % change

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar) (2)

Euro Area

Real GDP Growth (YoY)

Real GDP Growth (QoQ saar)

United States

Real GDP Growth (YoY) (1)

Economic Forecasts

November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month

Germany -0,33 -0,30 -0,20 0,00 Euro area 0,00 0,00 0,00 0,00

US 1,83 1,80 1,90 2,00 US 1,75 1,75 1,75 1,50

UK 0,73 0,79 0,78 0,82 UK 0,75 0,70 0,65 0,60

Japan -0,07 -0,16 -0,17 -0,11 Japan -0,10 -0,14 -0,14 -0,14

Currency November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month November 15th 3-month 6-month 12-month

EUR/USD 1,11 1,13 1,15 1,15 USD/JPY 109 107 106 104

EUR/GBP 0,86 0,86 0,86 0,86 GBP/USD 1,29 1,32 1,34 1,34

EUR/JPY 121 121 122 120

Official Rate (%)10-Yr Gov. Bond Yield (%)

Forecasts at end of period

Interest Rates & Foreign Exchange Forecasts

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Economic News & Events Calendar


6


O F G R E E C E

rat

Tuesday 12 Wednesday 13 Thursday 14

UK S A P US S A P US S A P

ILO Unemployment Rate September 3.9% + 3.8% 3.9% CPI (YoY) October 1.7% + 1.8% 1.7% Initial Jobless Claims (k) November 9 215 - 225 211

GERMANY Core CPI (YoY) October 2.4% - 2.3% 2.4% Continuing Claims (k) November 2 1683 1683 1693

ZEW survey current situation November -22.3 - -24.7 -25.3 UK UK

ZEW survey expectations November -13.0 + -2.1 -22.8 CPI (YoY) October 1.6% - 1.5% 1.7% Retail sales Ex Auto MoM October 0.2% - -0.3% 0.2%

Core CPI (YoY) October 1.7% 1.7% 1.7% JAPAN

EURO AREA GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 0.2% - 0.1% 0.4%

GDP Private Consumption Q3:19 0.6% - 0.4% 0.6%

GDP Business Spending (QoQ) Q3:19 0.9% 0.9% 0.7%

EURO AREA

Employment (QoQ) Q3:19 .. 0.1% 0.2%

Employment (YoY) Q3:19 .. 1.0% 1.2%

GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 0.2% 0.2% 0.2%

GDP (YoY) Q3:19 1.1% + 1.2% 1.2%

GERMANY

GDP (QoQ) Q3:19 -0.1% + 0.1% -0.2%

Friday 15 Monday 18 GDP (wda, YoY) Q3:19 0.5% 0.5% 0.3%

US S A P US S A P CHINA

Empire Manufacturing November 6.0 - 2.9 4.0 Industrial production (YoY) October 5.4% - 4.7% 5.8%

Retail Sales Advance MoM October 0.2% + 0.3% -0.3% Retail sales (YoY) October 7.8% - 7.2% 7.8%

Retail sales ex-autos (MoM) October 0.4% - 0.2% -0.1%

Industrial Production (MoM) October -0.4% - -0.8% -0.4%

EURO AREA

Trade Balance SA (€ bn) September 18.7 - 18.3 19.7

Tuesday 19 Wednesday 20 Thursday 21

US S A P US S A P US S A P

Building permits (k) October 1380 .. 1391 FOMC Minutes October 30

Housing starts (k) October 1320 .. 1256 JAPAN

Exports YoY October -7.5% .. -5.2% Initial Jobless Claims (k) November 16 218 .. 225

Imports YoY October -15.2% .. -1.5% Continuing Claims (k) November 9 1683 .. 1683

EURO AREA

Friday 22 Monday 25

US S A P EURO AREA S A P GERMANY S A P

Existing home sales (mn) October 5.49 .. 5.38 IFO- Business Climate Indicator November .. .. 94.6

UK IFO-Expectations November .. .. 91.5

Markit Eurozone Services PMI November 52.4 .. 52.2 IFO- Current Assesment November .. .. 97.8

Markit Eurozone Composite PMI November 50.9 .. 50.6

Markit/CIPS UK Services PMI November 50.1 .. 50.0

JAPAN

CPI (YoY) October 0.3% .. 0.2%

Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food October 0.4% .. 0.3%

PMI manufacturing November .. .. 48.4


S: Bloomberg Consensus Analysts Survey, A: Actual Outcome, P: Previous Outcome

November

November ..-7.3

-

October 0.6% .. 0.5%

NAHB housing market

confidence index

49.6

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing

PMI46.4November 45.9..

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing

SANovember 48.8 ..

Core CPI (YoY) - ex. Fresh Food

and Energy

Consumer Confidence Indicator

November

Industrial Production (wda, YoY) September -2.3% -1.7% -2.8%

Economic News Calendar for the period: November 12 - November 25, 2019

Net Long-term TIC Flows ($ bn) September .. -49.5 -41.2

Industrial Production (sa, MoM) September -0.2% 0.1% 0.4%+

+

-7.6

71 70 71

Philadelphia Fed Business

Outlook5.6..6.0

In the US, the minutes of the latest Fed meeting are released on

Thursday. Note that on October 30th, Fed cut its policy rate for a 3rd

consecutive time by 25bps to 1.5%-1.75%, while Chair Powell cited that

following that, the current monetary policy “is likely to remain

appropriate”.

In the Euro area, attention turns to PMIs for November, as they will

provide valuable insight regarding the current economic momentum.

Recall that PMI Manufacturing remains below the expansion/contraction

threshold of 50 for 9 consecutive months.

In Japan, November PMI manufacturing is released on Friday. Inflation

data for October are released at the same day. Inflation remains below

the Bank of Japan target of 2% (CPI yoy: 0.2% on September).

Economic Calendar

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

Jan

-15

Ma

y-1

5

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

Ma

y-1

6

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

Ma

y-1

7

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

Ma

y-1

8

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

Ma

y-1

9

Sep

-19

Jan

-20

France Germany Euro Area


Manufacturing PMIs

Estimates

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Financial Markets Monitor


7


O F G R E E C E

Developed MarketsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)Emerging Markets

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

US S&P 500 3120 0,9 24,5 14,3 21,7 MSCI Emerging Markets 58577 -1,2 9,6 7,6 -1,9

Japan NIKKEI 225 23303 -0,4 16,4 6,9 5,8 MSCI Asia 866 -1,4 10,4 7,4 -5,0

UK FTSE 100 7303 -0,8 8,5 3,8 -0,9 China 78 -3,3 10,4 5,8 -10,2

Canada S&P/TSX 17028 0,9 18,9 12,4 7,2 Korea 675 1,5 11,7 7,0 -11,9

Hong Kong Hang Seng 26327 -4,8 1,9 0,9 -8,8 MSCI Latin America 95482 -0,6 10,5 10,9 17,8

Euro area EuroStoxx 400 0,3 21,8 13,8 3,8 Brazil 340794 -1,0 18,0 19,4 41,6

Germany DAX 30 13242 0,1 25,4 16,6 2,0 Mexico 40138 -0,5 3,7 4,2 -10,8

France CAC 40 5939 0,8 25,5 18,0 12,0 MSCI Europe 6228 -1,1 17,3 16,6 18,4

Italy FTSE/MIB 23589 0,2 28,7 24,8 6,5 Russia 1324 -1,8 24,6 23,1 38,5

Spain IBEX-35 9261 -1,4 8,4 2,1 -7,5 Turkey 1414560 1,5 13,0 11,0 -5,3

Equity Markets (in local currency)

in US Dollar termsCurrent

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)in local currency

Current

Level

1-week

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

2-year

change (%)

Energy 192,2 -0,6 5,1 -6,6 -8,3 Energy 198,7 -0,8 5,1 -6,3 -6,6

Materials 263,8 0,0 15,9 8,7 -0,4 Materials 255,5 -0,2 16,6 9,3 2,3

Industrials 275,2 0,7 25,2 15,5 11,1 Industrials 273,8 0,5 25,8 15,3 12,3

Consumer Discretionary 269,4 0,0 20,7 12,8 19,3 Consumer Discretionary 261,0 -0,1 21,1 12,5 19,9

Consumer Staples 245,1 0,6 17,3 9,7 8,0 Consumer Staples 247,6 0,4 17,8 9,7 9,6

Healthcare 264,6 1,9 15,1 9,4 19,8 Healthcare 262,7 1,7 15,4 9,3 20,7

Financials 121,7 -0,5 18,1 7,7 0,7 Financials 123,0 -0,6 18,5 8,1 2,6

IT 295,7 1,3 38,9 27,5 35,3 IT 287,0 1,3 39,1 27,4 35,5

Telecoms 75,8 1,1 22,8 18,1 14,0 Telecoms 79,3 1,0 23,0 18,0 15,4

Utilities 144,5 0,9 14,7 13,6 8,9 Utilities 149,2 0,8 15,4 14,0 10,8

World Market Sectors (MSCI Indices)

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

average

Government Bond Yield

Spreads (in bps)Current Last week Year Start

One Year

Back

10-year

average

US 1,83 1,94 2,69 3,11 2,42 US Treasuries 10Y/2Y 22 27 20 26 147

Germany -0,33 -0,26 0,24 0,36 1,16 US Treasuries 10Y/5Y 18 20 17 17 77

Japan -0,07 -0,05 0,00 0,11 0,49 Bunds 10Y/2Y 30 35 85 95 121

UK 0,73 0,79 1,28 1,37 2,02 Bunds 10Y/5Y 25 27 55 60 75

Greece 1,47 1,33 4,40 4,58 10,04

Ireland 0,07 0,12 0,90 0,97 3,52

Italy 1,23 1,19 2,74 3,49 3,21

Spain 0,44 0,39 1,42 1,63 3,01 EM Inv. Grade (IG) 159 155 213 188 214

Portugal 0,37 0,32 1,72 1,97 4,78 EM High yield 519 512 586 517 650

US IG 112 111 159 133 152

Current Last week Year StartOne Year

Back

10-year

averageUS High yield 406 400 533 411 504

30-Year FRM1 (%) 4,0 4,0 4,8 5,2 4,2 Euro area IG 102 99 154 136 141

vs 30Yr Treasury (bps) 173 161 183 181 114 Euro area High Yield 363 353 506 434 493

10-Year Government

Bond Yields

US Mortgage Market

(1. Fixed-rate Mortgage)

One Year

Back

10-year

average

Corporate Bond Spreads

(in bps)Current Last week Year Start

Bond Markets (%)

Current1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)Commodities Current

1-week

change (%)

1-month

change (%)

1-Year

change (%)

Year-to-Date

change (%)

Euro-based cross rates

EUR/USD 1,11 0,3 -0,2 -2,4 -3,6 Agricultural 329 -0,9 -1,5 -7,8 -5,7

EUR/CHF 1,09 -0,4 -0,7 -4,1 -3,0 Energy 475 0,9 6,3 -0,4 23,9

EUR/GBP 0,86 -0,6 -0,7 -3,4 -4,7 West Texas Oil ($) 58 0,8 8,2 2,2 27,1

EUR/JPY 120,20 -0,2 -0,2 -6,6 -4,4 Crude brent Oil ($) 64 1,5 9,2 -2,8 20,2

EUR/NOK 10,04 -0,2 -1,2 4,4 1,4 Industrial Metals 1197 -3,1 -0,3 -2,6 0,7

EUR/SEK 10,66 -0,3 -1,5 3,8 5,0 Precious Metals 1727 0,4 -1,7 19,8 13,5

EUR/AUD 1,62 1,0 -1,0 4,2 -0,3 Gold ($) 1468 0,6 -1,5 21,0 14,5

EUR/CAD 1,46 0,3 0,0 -2,1 -6,5 Silver ($) 17 1,0 -2,5 18,7 9,5

USD-based cross rates Baltic Dry Index 1357 -1,5 -28,5 33,0 6,8

USD/CAD 1,32 0,0 0,2 0,3 -3,0 Baltic Dirty Tanker Index 1119 24,5 -31,8 1,8 -10,6

USD/AUD 1,47 0,5 -0,9 6,7 3,4

USD/JPY 108,77 -0,4 0,0 -4,3 -0,8

Foreign Exchange

Foreign Exchange & Commodities

Source: Bloomberg, as of November 15th, S&P/Goldman Sachs Indices for Agricultural, Energy,

Industrial & Precious Metals, BofA/ML Indices for Corporate Bond Spreads

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


8


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for Assets

Under Management, Data as of November 15th

Source: Bloomberg, NBG estimates, Cumulative flows since January 2014, AUM stands for

Assets Under Management, Data as of November 15th

Global Cross Asset ETFs: Flows as % of AUM Equity ETFs: Flows as % of AUM

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th – Rebased @ 100

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th – Rebased @ 100


94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

94

96

98

100

102

104

106

108

110

112

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

14-N

ov

S&P500 EuroStoxx FTSE 100 Nikkei 225

-7

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1400

1440

1480

1520

1560

1600

1640

1680

1720

1760

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11

-Ju

l

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-S

ep

19

-Sep

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

31

-Oct

14

-No

v

Small Cap/Large Cap Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000-Small cap (left)Russell 1000-Large Cap (left)

Equity Market Performance - G4 Equity Market Performance - BRICs

Russell 2000 Value & Growth Index

Russell 2000 & Russell 1000 Index

-15-10-50510152025303540455055606570

-15-10

-505

10152025303540455055606570

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

DM Equities Bonds

EM Equities Commodities% %

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

120

124

92

96

100

104

108

112

116

120

124

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

14-N

ov

Brazil China Russia India

-6

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

1500

1600

1700

1800

1900

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11

-Ju

l

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-S

ep

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

31

-Oct

14

-No

v

Value/Growth Relative Performance during the previous 6 months (right)Russell 2000 Value (left)Russell 2000 Growth (left)

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

Jan

-14

May

-14

Sep

-14

Jan

-15

May

-15

Sep

-15

Jan

-16

May

-16

Sep

-16

Jan

-17

May

-17

Sep

-17

Jan

-18

May

-18

Sep

-18

Jan

-19

May

-19

Sep

-19

US Emerging Markets Europe exUK% %

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Chartroom


9


O F G R E E C E

Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th Source: Bloomberg, Data as of November 15th

1,08

1,09

1,10

1,11

1,12

1,13

1,14

1,08

1,09

1,10

1,11

1,12

1,13

1,14

16

-May

30

-May

13

-Ju

n

27

-Ju

n

11

-Ju

l

25

-Ju

l

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-S

ep

19

-Se

p

3-O

ct

17

-Oct

31

-Oct

14

-No

v

EUR-USD €/$€/$

Stronger USD

EUR/USD

JPY/USD

Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th

LA:Left Axis RA:Right Axis


Source: Bloomberg - Data as of November 15th


-0,8

-0,7

-0,6

-0,5

-0,4

-0,3

-0,2

-0,1

0,0

0,0

0,2

0,4

0,6

0,8

1,0

1,2

1,4

1,6

1,8

2,0

2,2

2,4

2,6

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

14-N

ov

US (LA) UK (LA) Japan (RA) Germany (RA) %%

1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570

1.2301.2501.2701.2901.3101.3301.3501.3701.3901.4101.4301.4501.4701.4901.5101.5301.5501.570

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

14-N

ov

Gold $/ounch$/ounch

10- Year Government Bond Yields 10- Year Government Bond Spreads

West Texas Intermediate ($/brl)

Gold ($/ounch)

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

104

105

106

107

108

109

110

111

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

14-N

ov

USD-JPY $/¥$/¥

Stronger JPY

50

100

150

200

250

300

50

100

150

200

250

300

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22

-Au

g

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

14-N

ov

Italy Portugal Spain bpsbps

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

64

16-M

ay

30-M

ay

13-J

un

27-J

un

11-J

ul

25-J

ul

8-A

ug

22-A

ug

5-Se

p

19-S

ep

3-O

ct

17-O

ct

31-O

ct

14-N

ov

WTI $/brl$/brl

NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


10


O F G R E E C E

US Sectors Valuation

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

Hea

lth

Car

e

Uti

litie

s

Re

al E

stat

e

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Fin

anci

als

S&P

50

0 IT

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary

Ind

ust

rial

s

Mat

eri

als

Ener

gy

2019

12-month forward

%

1-month revisions to 2019 & 12-month Forward EPSEarnings Revisions indicate 1-month change in 2019 & 12-month Forward EPS

-5

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

Hea

lth

Car

e IT

Co

nsu

me

r St

aple

s

Uti

litie

s

Re

al E

stat

e

Fin

anci

als

S&P

50

0

Mat

eri

als

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

Ener

gy

Ind

ust

rial

s

Co

ns

Dis

cret

ion

ary

2019

12-month forward

%


P/BV Ratio

15/11/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

S&P500 3120 0,9 18,0 4,4 2,0 1,9 17,4 19,2 17,7 15,0 3,2 3,5 3,3 2,5

Energy 440 -1,3 64,4 -12,7 3,2 4,0 19,9 20,4 17,4 19,5 1,8 1,5 1,5 1,8

Materials 378 0,2 23,5 -16,3 1,9 2,1 16,7 20,2 18,0 14,7 2,6 2,4 2,3 2,5

Financials

Diversified Financials 721 0,3 28,2 5,9 1,3 1,5 16,0 15,5 14,7 13,8 1,9 1,8 1,7 1,5

Banks 361 -1,0 24,6 9,9 2,2 2,7 13,0 11,9 11,6 11,3 1,4 1,3 1,3 1,0

Insurance 434 0,2 33,6 3,7 2,2 2,1 12,2 13,0 12,2 10,7 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,1

Real Estate 238 1,9 5,8 3,2 3,8 3,1 16,7 20,7 19,7 18,2 3,1 3,7 3,8 2,9

Industrials

Capital Goods 735 1,0 15,3 -4,3 2,0 1,9 19,1 20,9 17,6 15,5 4,7 5,4 4,7 3,3

Transportation 789 -1,4 25,0 9,6 1,8 1,9 14,0 14,4 13,6 13,6 3,6 4,3 3,9 3,3

Commercial Services 334 1,6 16,7 8,2 1,5 1,3 22,8 26,9 25,1 19,6 4,1 5,6 5,3 3,3

Consumer Discretionary

Retailing 2383 -0,6 22,4 18,8 0,8 0,8 31,1 31,4 28,1 20,8 10,2 12,1 10,7 5,9

Media 635 1,7 18,7 10,7 0,4 0,4 23,6 25,4 22,1 19,5 4,1 3,9 3,4 3,2

Consumer Services 1230 0,7 16,4 9,8 2,2 2,3 20,8 22,2 20,3 19,1 8,8 13,6 12,9 6,1

Consumer Durables 352 1,4 15,0 -0,8 1,5 1,5 16,7 18,4 17,0 16,8 3,3 3,8 3,5 3,1

Automobiles and parts 118 -3,5 -5,4 -20,6 3,7 4,0 7,8 8,8 7,5 8,5 1,6 1,4 1,3 1,7

IT

Technology 1472 0,5 17,0 2,4 1,8 1,5 15,1 19,2 17,9 12,5 5,2 8,7 8,9 3,5

Software & Services 2215 2,2 14,0 10,4 1,3 1,0 22,5 27,0 24,4 16,9 6,8 7,4 7,0 5,0

Semiconductors 1174 0,0 16,1 -3,4 1,9 1,9 14,8 17,8 17,0 13,9 4,3 5,3 4,9 3,0

Communication Services 178 1,3 17,7 7,9 1,4 1,2 19,1 20,6 18,6 17,0 3,4 3,3 3,0 2,8

Consumer Staples

Food & Staples Retailing 501 0,5 12,1 3,4 2,1 1,7 17,4 22,0 21,2 15,9 3,6 4,7 4,4 3,1

Food Beverage & Tobacco 689 1,2 12,5 -2,6 3,3 3,4 18,3 19,1 18,1 17,3 5,1 5,1 4,9 4,9

Household Goods 714 0,4 9,9 4,5 3,1 2,4 19,3 24,8 23,4 19,0 5,4 8,5 8,4 4,9

Health Care

Pharmaceuticals 922 1,4 8,3 13,4 2,2 2,2 15,1 14,6 14,0 14,3 4,2 5,0 4,2 3,5

Healthcare Equipment 1327 3,7 13,1 16,1 1,1 1,0 18,0 19,3 17,9 15,0 3,3 3,5 3,2 2,5

Utilities 318 1,5 5,2 4,0 3,9 3,2 16,4 20,2 19,3 15,5 1,7 2,2 2,1 1,6

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

EPS Growth (%) P/E RatioPrice ($) Dividend Yield (%)

Source: Factset, Data as of November 15th

12-month forward EPS are 12% of 2019 EPS and 88% of 2020 EPS



NBG Global Markets Roundup | Equity Market Valuation Metrics


11


O F G R E E C E

Euro Area Sectors Valuation

-6

-4

-2

0

2

Ch

emic

als

Uti

litie

s

Rea

l Est

ate

Ret

ail

Insu

ran

ce

Ind

ust

rial

Euro

Sto

xx

Mat

eria

ls

Tech

no

logy

Foo

d&

Bev

erag

e

Trav

el a

nd

Lei

sure

Med

ia

Fin

/al S

ervi

ces

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

Au

tos

and

par

ts

He

alth

car

e

Ho

use

ho

ld G

oo

ds

Ban

ks

Ene

rgy

Bas

ic R

eso

urc

es

2019

12-month Forward

%


-18%

-70-65-60-55-50-45-40-35-30-25-20-15-10

-505

101520

Uti

litie

s

Insu

ran

ce

Foo

d&

Bev

erag

e

Med

ia

Fin

/al S

ervi

ces

Mat

eria

ls

Ho

use

ho

ld G

oo

ds

Ret

ail

He

alth

car

e

Ind

ust

rial

Rea

l Est

ate

Tech

no

logy

Euro

Sto

xx

Ban

ks

Co

mm

Ser

vice

s

Ch

emic

als

Trav

el a

nd

Lei

sure

Au

tos

and

par

ts

Ene

rgy

Bas

ic R

eso

urc

es

2019

12-month Forward

%


15/11/2019 % Weekly Change 2018 2019 2018 2019 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg 2018 2019 12m fwd 10Yr Avg

EuroStoxx 400 0,3 7,3 -4,6 3,2 3,2 14,8 16,2 15,0 13,1 1,6 1,7 1,6 1,4

Energy 331 -0,2 7,3 8,4 4,8 4,9 13,6 13,3 11,5 11,4 1,2 1,2 1,2 1,2

Materials 485 1,3 10,1 8,3 3,1 3,2 15,1 15,5 14,2 14,1 1,7 1,9 1,8 1,4

Basic Resources 202 -0,4 -4,3 -53,7 2,2 3,2 12,7 20,6 13,5 13,7 1,2 0,8 0,8 0,9

Chemicals 1168 1,0 5,1 -21,5 2,8 2,7 16,0 21,7 19,8 15,0 2,4 2,1 2,0 2,2

Financials

Fin/al Services 498 0,4 15,4 4,6 2,5 2,4 15,9 16,5 16,2 14,0 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,3

Banks 94 -1,8 12,1 -11,0 4,1 5,9 11,5 9,0 8,7 10,1 0,9 0,6 0,6 0,7

Insurance 303 0,0 14,2 9,2 5,0 4,9 10,8 10,9 10,4 9,2 1,0 1,1 1,0 0,9

Real Estate 243 0,9 9,3 3,4 4,2 4,3 18,7 18,8 18,0 16,6 1,0 1,0 1,0 1,0

Industrial 941 1,3 12,1 4,1 2,6 2,4 18,1 19,8 17,8 15,1 2,8 3,1 2,9 2,3

Consumer Discretionary

Media 224 -1,4 0,2 8,2 3,7 3,7 17,6 16,1 15,2 15,5 2,3 2,3 2,2 2,1

Retail 566 1,9 11,4 5,8 2,7 2,7 20,3 22,7 20,7 18,4 2,8 3,5 3,4 2,7

Automobiles and parts 509 -1,9 4,6 -22,9 3,3 3,6 8,2 9,0 8,2 8,9 1,2 0,9 0,9 1,0

Travel and Leisure 206 0,8 2,1 -30,4 1,7 2,1 12,0 15,4 12,8 16,2 2,0 1,9 1,8 1,8

Technology 589 0,9 2,7 1,6 1,6 1,2 21,4 25,0 22,7 17,9 3,6 4,0 3,7 2,9

Communication Services 304 -0,1 -1,1 -8,8 4,4 4,2 14,4 16,3 14,9 14,0 1,8 1,9 1,9 1,8

Consumer Staples

Food&Beverage 609 1,7 15,5 5,7 2,9 2,1 20,6 20,4 19,6 18,3 2,9 2,7 2,5 2,6

Household Goods 1055 -0,5 7,8 9,8 1,9 1,7 23,2 28,6 26,0 20,5 4,3 5,9 5,4 3,6

Health care 837 0,9 5,0 -3,6 2,5 2,2 17,0 18,8 17,5 14,9 2,1 2,3 2,2 2,1

Utilities 338 -0,2 -4,1 14,0 5,2 4,6 14,0 15,7 14,6 12,5 1,2 1,5 1,5 1,1

Price (€) P/BV RatioDividend Yield (%)EPS Growth (%)

Source Factset, Blue box indicates a value more than +2standard devation from average, light blue a value more than +1standard devation from average. Orange box indicates a value less than -2standard devation from

average, light orange a value less than -1standard devation from average

P/E Ratio





NBG Global Markets Roundup | Disclosures & Analyst Certification


12


O F G R E E C E

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Global Markets Roundup Assets Performance (in $) Number of ... · Emerging Markets Equities Developed Markets Year-to-Date Since October 1st Assets Performance (in $) Source: NBG