Global LeadershipGlobal Leadership

Polarity is the degree to which Polarity is the degree to which military and economic capabilities military and economic capabilities are concentrated in the global are concentrated in the global system that determines the number system that determines the number of centers, or “poles,” of power.of centers, or “poles,” of power.

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Global LeadershipGlobal Leadership

Collective or public goods, such as Collective or public goods, such as clean drinking water, roads, clean drinking water, roads, education, a stable currency, or education, a stable currency, or trade management, benefits trade management, benefits everyone, and is provided by the everyone, and is provided by the group.group.

Sources/Indicators of PowerSources/Indicators of Power

Power = factors that enable a Power = factors that enable a state to persuade or coerce state to persuade or coerce another to do something it would another to do something it would not otherwise donot otherwise do

Military capabilitiesMilitary capabilities Military expendituresMilitary expenditures Relative size of economyRelative size of economy

•character

Sources/Indicators of Power, Con’t….Sources/Indicators of Power, Con’t….

Population sizePopulation size Territorial sizeTerritorial size Geographic positionGeographic position Raw materialsRaw materials Dependence on foreign raw materialsDependence on foreign raw materials Technological level and capacityTechnological level and capacity National characterNational character

Sources/Indicators of Power, con’t….Sources/Indicators of Power, con’t….

IdeologyIdeology Efficiency of government decision makingEfficiency of government decision making Industrial productivityIndustrial productivity Trade volumeTrade volume Savings and investmentSavings and investment Education levelEducation level National moralsNational morals Internal solidarityInternal solidarity

Hard power is the ability to exerciseglobal influence by means of military capabilities.

Soft power is the power to persuade orco-opt via such intangible factors as theattractiveness of one’s ideas, values, culture, and institutions, as opposed to militaryassets. (structural power)

Joseph Nye, BOUND TO LEAD, 1990; SOFT POWER, 2004

A hegemon is a preponderant state capable A hegemon is a preponderant state capable of dominating international political and of dominating international political and economic relations.economic relations.

Hegemonic stability theory maintains that Hegemonic stability theory maintains that the establishment of hegemony or global the establishment of hegemony or global dominance by a single power is a necessary dominance by a single power is a necessary condition for global order in military condition for global order in military security and in commercial interactions.security and in commercial interactions.

Balancing versus bandwagoning (discussed Balancing versus bandwagoning (discussed by classical neorealists)by classical neorealists)

The Great Powers’ National The Great Powers’ National Security StrategiesSecurity Strategies

The United States and Its Unipolar The United States and Its Unipolar MomentMoment The Bush DoctrineThe Bush Doctrine

The European Union’s Search for a The European Union’s Search for a Strategic VisionStrategic Vision Supporter of integration and institutional Supporter of integration and institutional

approaches approaches China’s Ascendance and Global CloutChina’s Ascendance and Global Clout Russia’s Quest for Strategic Revival Russia’s Quest for Strategic Revival

United States Military SpendingUnited States Military Spending1947-20081947-2008

Nuclear Weapons in 2008Nuclear Weapons in 2008

United United StatesStates

55215521

RussiaRussia 56825682

ChinaChina 130130

France France 348348

Great Great Britain Britain

185185

IsraelIsrael 100-200100-200

PakistanPakistan 6060

IndiaIndia 5050

The Changing Character The Changing Character of World Powerof World Power

Decreased utility of military powerDecreased utility of military power Increased importance of technology, Increased importance of technology,

education, and economic growtheducation, and economic growth Military spending:Military spending:

Opportunity costsOpportunity costs Peace dividendPeace dividend Relative burden of military spendingRelative burden of military spending ““Guns versus butter”Guns versus butter”

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America’s Unipolar MomentAmerica’s Unipolar Moment

Caused by end of Cold WarCaused by end of Cold War Unilateralism of the Bush Unilateralism of the Bush

administration administration Bush Doctrine and the war on terrorBush Doctrine and the war on terror Unipolar situation instigates other Unipolar situation instigates other

power centers to form (balancing)power centers to form (balancing) Imperial overstretch?Imperial overstretch? (Paul Kennedy, THE RISE AND FALL OF GREAT (Paul Kennedy, THE RISE AND FALL OF GREAT

POWERS, 1987)POWERS, 1987)

“ “As treasury secretary, I observed that the As treasury secretary, I observed that the global economy depended on the US global economy depended on the US economy, that the US economy depended economy, that the US economy depended on the consumer, that the consumer on the consumer, that the consumer depended on the stock market, and that the depended on the stock market, and that the stock market depended increasingly on 30 stock market depended increasingly on 30 or 40 stocks. I also remarked that the main or 40 stocks. I also remarked that the main thing we had to fear was the lack of fear thing we had to fear was the lack of fear itself, and that the world economy could not itself, and that the world economy could not fly forever on a single American engine.” fly forever on a single American engine.”

Lawrence H. Summers, US Secretary of the Lawrence H. Summers, US Secretary of the Treasury, 1999-2001Treasury, 1999-2001

Economic LeadershipEconomic LeadershipThe European UnionThe European Union

What is the European Union?What is the European Union? How does it work?How does it work? Sources/indicators of economic Sources/indicators of economic

powerpower Sources/indicators of military powerSources/indicators of military power Soft powerSoft power

What is the European Union?What is the European Union?

an intergovernmental organization?an intergovernmental organization? a federation…“the United States of a federation…“the United States of

Europe?”Europe?” a confederation?a confederation? a supranational entity?a supranational entity?

pooled/shared sovereigntypooled/shared sovereignty a hybrid organization?a hybrid organization?

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Exam 1Grade Distribution Exam 1Grade Distribution

As = 26%Bs = 43%Cs = 22%Ds = 7%Es = 1%

Institutional Development of the EUInstitutional Development of the EU

1952 the Treaty of Paris 1952 the Treaty of Paris

creation of the European Coal and Steel Communitycreation of the European Coal and Steel Community

original members: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the original members: Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, LuxembourgNetherlands, Luxembourg

1957 the Treaties of Rome 1957 the Treaties of Rome

creation of the European Atomic Energy Community creation of the European Atomic Energy Community (Euratom)(Euratom)

creation of the European Economic Community (the EEC)creation of the European Economic Community (the EEC) 1967 the Merger Treaty enters into force1967 the Merger Treaty enters into force

creation of the European Communities (EC)creation of the European Communities (EC) 1992 the Maastricht Treaty1992 the Maastricht Treaty

creation of the European Union (EU)creation of the European Union (EU)

3 Goals of the EC 3 Goals of the EC the 1957 Treaties of Romethe 1957 Treaties of Rome

Creation of a common/single marketCreation of a common/single market

Freedom of movement of goods, Freedom of movement of goods, services, capital, peopleservices, capital, people

Creation of a customs unionCreation of a customs union Creation of a Common Agriculture Creation of a Common Agriculture

PolicyPolicy

Bodies of the EC/EUBodies of the EC/EU

Executive: the Commission (Brussels)Executive: the Commission (Brussels) Legislative: the European Council (the Legislative: the European Council (the

Heads of Government and State meeting Heads of Government and State meeting in summit), the Council of Ministers in summit), the Council of Ministers (Brussels), the European Parliament (Brussels), the European Parliament (Strasbourg)(Strasbourg)

Judicial: the European Court of Justice Judicial: the European Court of Justice (Luxembourg City)(Luxembourg City)

Central Bank: the European Central Bank Central Bank: the European Central Bank (Frankfurt) (Frankfurt)

Factors Contributing to the EU’s Factors Contributing to the EU’s Growing Economic and Political Power Growing Economic and Political Power

1987-1992 implementation of the Single 1987-1992 implementation of the Single European ActEuropean Act 1990 the unification of Germany1990 the unification of Germany 1992 the Maastricht Treaty1992 the Maastricht Treaty addition of the 2addition of the 2ndnd (foreign policy and (foreign policy and security cooperation) and 3security cooperation) and 3rdrd (home and (home and justice affairs) “pillars;” agreed to create the justice affairs) “pillars;” agreed to create the European Central Bank and to adopt the European Central Bank and to adopt the

euroeuro enlargement to 27 member statesenlargement to 27 member states

The EU in the Global EconomyThe EU in the Global Economy% World Population % World Population % World % World

EconomicEconomicProductionProduction

EU-27 7.6% EU-27 7.6% 30.2%30.2%United States 4.6% United States 4.6% 28.1% 28.1%Japan .2% Japan .2% 10.2%10.2%China 20.2% China 20.2% 5% 5%India 17% India 17% 1.8% 1.8%

Source: World Development Indicators database Source: World Development Indicators database

World Bank, 2005World Bank, 2005http://www.worldbank.org http://www.worldbank.org

The EU Share of World TradeThe EU Share of World Trade

Merchandise Trade – ExportsMerchandise Trade – ExportsEUEU 39.4%39.4% China 7.5%China 7.5%US 8.9%US 8.9% Japan 5.9%Japan 5.9%

Trade in Commercial Services – ExportsTrade in Commercial Services – ExportsEU 43.3%EU 43.3% JapanJapan 4.9%4.9%US 18.7%US 18.7% China/Hong KongChina/Hong Kong 4.7%4.7%

Source: World Trade Organization, 2005 Source: World Trade Organization, 2005 datadata

American Dollars to 1 EUR (invert,data)

American Dollar to 1 EUROAmerican Dollar to 1 EURO

      

                                                    

120 days

latest (Oct 10)1.3471

lowest (Oct 10)1.3471

highest (Jul 15)1.5923

Currency Composition of Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange ReservesOfficial Foreign Exchange Reserves

20002000 0101 0202 0303 0404 0505 0606 0707 $ 70.5%$ 70.5% 70.7%70.7% 66.5%66.5% 65.8%65.8% 65.9%65.9% 66.4%66.4% 65.7%65.7%

63.963.9

E 18.8%E 18.8% 19.8%19.8% 24.2%24.2% 25.3%25.3% 24.9%24.9% 24.3%24.3% 25.2%25.2%26.526.5

Source: International Monetary FundSource: International Monetary Fund

1992 Maastricht Treaty1992 Maastricht Treaty

“ “to assert its identity on the international to assert its identity on the international scene, in particular through the scene, in particular through the implementation of a common foreign and implementation of a common foreign and security policy including the eventual security policy including the eventual framing of a common defense policy, framing of a common defense policy, which might in time lead to a common which might in time lead to a common defense.” (Article 2[exB])defense.” (Article 2[exB])

Created High Representative for CFSP, Created High Representative for CFSP, Javier SolanaJavier Solana

5 Objectives of the CFSP5 Objectives of the CFSP To strengthen the common values, To strengthen the common values,

fundamental interests, and independence of fundamental interests, and independence of the Unionthe Union

To strengthen the security of the Union, and To strengthen the security of the Union, and its member states in all waysits member states in all ways

To preserve peace and strengthen To preserve peace and strengthen international security, in accordance with the international security, in accordance with the principles of the United Nations charter as principles of the United Nations charter as well as the principles of the Helsinki Final Actwell as the principles of the Helsinki Final Act

To promote international cooperationTo promote international cooperation To develop and consolidate democracy and To develop and consolidate democracy and

the rule of law, respect for human rights, and the rule of law, respect for human rights, and fundamental freedomsfundamental freedoms

HUMAN SECURITY HUMAN SECURITY

is freedom from is freedom from

fear and want.fear and want.

Soft Power Soft Power The Copenhagen CriteriaThe Copenhagen Criteria

Commitment to democracyCommitment to democracy Adherence to the rule of lawAdherence to the rule of law Respect for human rights and minoritiesRespect for human rights and minorities Bureaucratic effectiveness, including Bureaucratic effectiveness, including

addressing problems of corruptionaddressing problems of corruption The presence of a functioning market The presence of a functioning market

economyeconomy Willingness to adopt the Willingness to adopt the acquis acquis

communitairecommunitaire