POWER OF DATA

GLOBAL LANDSCAPE OF SSN/SA PROGRAMSKEY PRELIMINARY FINDINGS FROM THE ANALYSIS OF ASPIRE

ADMINISTRATIVE DATA

Power of Data & Nov. 1st, 2019

ASPIRE team:

Alex (Oleksiy) Ivaschenko

Claudia Rodriquez

Usama Zafar

Veronica Lopez

Sofia CordobaSocial Safety Nets and Delivery Course

Table of Contents

✓ASPIRE administrative data universe – Number of SSN/SA

programs;

✓Global number of SSN/SA program beneficiaries;

✓Coverage rates by SSN program category and

region/country;

✓Trends and interesting facts;

ASPIRE administrative data universe

– Number of SSN/SA programs

The ASPIRE administrative data universe – capturing almost

3,000 individual SSN/SA programs from 144 countries

representing 80% of the global population

3

AFR, ECA and LAC are regions with the largest number of programs – together

accounting for 77% of the total

4

Figure: Number of SSN Programs, by Region

Most programs belong to the UCT category (27% of total), with in-kind and social

pensions also significant; other SA (social services) is an elephant in the room

5

Figure: Number of SSN Programs, by Category

793

161

328

140

218

428

275

606

UCT CCT Social pension School feeding /take-home

Public works In kind Fee waivers Other socialassistance

On average, countries have 22 SSN programs; LAC, ECA and SAR have a higher

number of programs than global average

6

Figure: Number of SSN Programs, by Category

22

18

15

26

36

14

26

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

Global AFR EAP ECA LAC MNA SAR

However, significant country variations in the N of programs are hidden behind

averages; in LAC, for example, Bolivia has 12 SSN programs, while Chile has 150!

7

Figure: Number of SSN Programs, by Country within LAC Region

12

13

14

16

17

20

20

22

23

23

27

36

37

41

56

57

57

150

Global Mean, 22

Regional Mean, 36

0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

Bolivia

St. Lucia

Guatemala

Uruguay

Peru

Nicaragua

Panama

Costa Rica

El Salvador

Honduras

Argentina

Brazil

Ecuador

Colombia

Grenada

Dominican Republic

Mexico

Chile

Latin

Am

erica

& C

arrib

ean

(18)

No. of SSN Programs Global Mean Region Mean

There is generally no correlation between N of SSN programs and country’s level of

economic development; countries at a similar development level can have dramatically

different N of programs

8

Figure: Number of SSN Programs vs. per capita GDP

Algeria

Argentina

BelarusBrazil

Bulgaria

Burkina Faso

Cabo Verde

Chad

China

Colombia

Costa Rica

Croatia

Czech Republic

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Estonia

Gabon

Grenada

Hungary

IranIraq

Kazakhstan

Latvia

Lebanon

Lithuania

Macedonia

Malaysia

Mauritius

Mexico

Montenegro

Nepal

Pakistan

Panama

Peru

Poland

Romania

Russia

Seychelles

Slovak Republic

Slovenia

Turkey

Ukraine

Uruguay

Vietnam

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

No.

of S

SN P

rogr

ams

GDP per Capita (USD)

Global number of SSN/SA program

beneficiaries

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The administrative data captures 2.6 billion beneficiaries, which represents the

coverage rate of 43%!(note: this coverage rate is similar to that one estimated from HH surveys (SSN 2018 Report), and the one reported by ILO in their global report)

10

Figure: Global Number of SSN Beneficiaries, Actual (2.6bn) vs. Estimate (3.2bn)

if the Same Level of Coverage Holds for Missing Countries

2.62B

3.23B

6.16B

7.59B

-

1,000,000,000

2,000,000,000

3,000,000,000

4,000,000,000

5,000,000,000

6,000,000,000

7,000,000,000

8,000,000,000

Current Estimate

Sum of Beneficiaries Population

EAP (driven by China), SAR (India and Bangladesh) and LAC are the regions with

the highest number of beneficiaries

11

Figure: Total Number of SSN beneficiaries, by Region

2.62B

252M

915M

162M

464M

204M

627M

-

500,000,000

1,000,000,000

1,500,000,000

2,000,000,000

2,500,000,000

3,000,000,000

World ECA EAP AFR LAC MNA SAR

Large (population) countries account for the bulk of beneficiaries; 89 countries

(64%) have few programs than the global average of 22

12

Figure: Total Number of SSN beneficiaries & Number of programs, by country

Brazi l

Chad

China

ColombiaDominican Republic

Egypt

Grenada

India

Indonesia

Mexico

Morocco

Phi l ippines

SudanThailand Ukra ine

Global Mean, 22

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,000

400,000,000

450,000,000

500,000,000

-5 5 15 25 35 45 55 65 75

Tota

l Num

ber

of B

enef

icia

ries

Number of SSN Programs

Coverage rates by SSN program

category and region/country

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In terms of the overall coverage rates, while the global country

average is 43%, regional averages differ from 16% in AFR to 84%

in LAC(Note: The coverage rates based on administrative data are prone to the “noise” due to potential cases of double-counting -- a single person receiving multiple programs)

14

Figure: Coverage - Beneficiaries as % of Population, by Region

In terms of the coverage rates, ECA and LAC lead in cash transfers, while LAC, MNA and

EAP dominate in non-cash assistance(Note: Cash includes UCTs, CCTs and Social Pensions; Non-cash includes school feeding, public works, in-kind, fee waivers and other SA)

15

Figure: Coverage - Beneficiaries as % of Population (Cash vs. Non-Cash), by

Region

In terms of the coverage rates by type of SSN instrument, in-kind social support and fee

waivers are still most significant, followed closely by UCTs

16

Figure: Coverage - Beneficiaries as % of Global Population, by Instrument

12.3%

6.4%

4.1%

7.7%

1.8%

14.3%14.7%

5.6%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

10.0%

12.0%

14.0%

16.0%

UCT CCT Social Pension SchoolFeeding

Public Works In Kind Fee Waivers Other SocialAssistance

Trends and interesting facts

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It is clear though that the relative importance of the cash transfers (vs. non-cash) increases

with the country income status (Note: Cash includes UCTs, CCTs and Social Pensions; Non-cash includes school feeding, public works, in-kind, fee waivers and other SA)

18

Figure: Coverage - Beneficiaries as % of Population, Cash vs. Non-Cash shares

by Income Group

15.2%

27.3%

41.7%

72.7%

84.8%

72.7%

58.3%

27.3%

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

90.0%

Low Income Lower middle income Upper middle income High Income

Cash Non-Cash

Absolute levels of cash assistance coverage also tend to rise with the country income

status (driven mostly by UCT component) (Note: Cash includes UCTs, CCTs and Social Pensions)

19

Figure: Coverage - Beneficiaries (Cash Assistance) as % of Population vs. GDP

per Capita

Argentina

Belarus

Bulgaria

China Costa Rica

Croatia

Dominican Republic

Ecuador

Estonia

Georgia

Guatemala

Honduras Hungary

Indonesia

Kazakhstan

Latvia

Lithuania

Malaysia

Mauritius

Mexico

Mongolia

Nepal

Panama

Poland

Romania

Russia

Seychelles

Slovak RepublicSouth Africa

Sri Lanka

St. Lucia

Sudan

Timor-Leste

Uruguay

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

80.0%

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000 18000 20000

Bene

ficia

ries a

s % o

f Pop

ulat

ion

GDP per Capita (USD)

The reliance on in-kind social assistance tends to first go up as countries develop (until

middle income status), and then goes down as HICs tend to rely predominantly on cash

transfers (Note: Red dots indicate countries where over 60% of the SSN expenditure is driven by donor agencies. Chad & South Sudan are 100% driven by donors.)

20

Figure: Coverage - Beneficiaries (In-kind Assistance) as % of Population vs. GDP

per Capita

Argentina

Bangladesh

Bolivia

BotswanaCentral African Republic

Chad

Chile

ChinaColombia

Ecuador

Estonia

Fiji

Honduras

Hungary

Indonesia

Mexico

Mongolia

Morocco

Peru PolandRomania

Slovak Republic

South Sudan

Sri Lanka

Sudan Swaziland

Turkey

Uruguay

West Bank and Gaza

0.0%

10.0%

20.0%

30.0%

40.0%

50.0%

60.0%

70.0%

0 5000 10000 15000 20000

Bene

ficia

ries a

s % o

f Pop

ulat

ion

GDP per Capita (USD)

Thank you!

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