Global Interactions & The Future of Serbia Slobodan Pesic American Public University The Pesic Group International Conference SERBIA IN CONTEMPORARY GEO-STRATEGIC

Global Interactions Global Interactions & &

The Future of SerbiaThe Future of SerbiaSlobodan PesicSlobodan Pesic

American Public UniversityAmerican Public UniversityThe Pesic GroupThe Pesic Group

International ConferenceInternational Conference

SERBIA IN CONTEMPORARY GEO-STRATEGIC SURROUNDINGSSERBIA IN CONTEMPORARY GEO-STRATEGIC SURROUNDINGS

Institute of International Politics and Economics (Belgrade)Institute of International Politics and Economics (Belgrade) Republic of Serbia, Ministry of Defence, Sector for Defence Policy, Strategic Research Institute Republic of Serbia, Ministry of Defence, Sector for Defence Policy, Strategic Research Institute

Hanns Seidel Stiftung Hanns Seidel Stiftung

September 21, 2009September 21, 2009Belgrade, SerbiaBelgrade, Serbia

2204/19/2304/19/23 Copyright by Slobodan Pesic, Global Interactions and the Future of SerbiaCopyright by Slobodan Pesic, Global Interactions and the Future of Serbia

Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline

An Overview of Global Interactions: Paradigms & An Overview of Global Interactions: Paradigms & Key VariablesKey Variables Key Questions for SerbiaKey Questions for Serbia

Serbia Today: Key IssuesSerbia Today: Key Issues

Restoring Strategic Culture Balance: Restoring Strategic Culture Balance: 2020 Constitutional Model of Serbia 2020 Constitutional Model of Serbia


Global InteractionsGlobal Interactions

Key ParadigmsKey Paradigms

Nation-States, Nationalism, NeomercantilismNation-States, Nationalism, NeomercantilismGlobalization(s)Globalization(s)(Clash of?) Civilizations (Belief Systems)(Clash of?) Civilizations (Belief Systems)Regionalism (Cross-border and International)Regionalism (Cross-border and International)


Global Interactions Global Interactions (cont.)(cont.)

Key variablesKey variables

UncertaintyUncertaintyHierarchiesHierarchies

Power projections, power distribution, power sharingPower projections, power distribution, power sharing

Nation-state(s)Nation-state(s)Strategic CultureStrategic CultureSovereignty/GovernanceSovereignty/Governance(Competitive) Identities/Nation Branding(Competitive) Identities/Nation BrandingBargainingBargainingBalancingBalancingEducation/KnowledgeEducation/KnowledgeCommunication including Signal/Noise management and C3ICommunication including Signal/Noise management and C3I

(The lack of) Wisdom(The lack of) Wisdom


NATIONALISMPerceived insecurity/perceived threat levels

independent/dependent variable

SECURITY DILEMMA (Neighbors and non-neighbors)independent/dependent variable

INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM (“International Community”)Interests, objectives & policy outcomes of behavior of more influential

cultures (“consequentiality of history”)independent/intervening variable

Strategic Culture: Environmental MatrixStrategic Culture: Environmental Matrix

More influential cultureMore influential culture: a culture with the : a culture with the willwill, , capacity and capabilitycapacity and capability to affect identities and to affect identities and sovereignties beyond its neighborhoodsovereignties beyond its neighborhood


Nation(alism) Paradox Nation(alism) Paradox Thomas Theorem: “If people define situations as real, they Thomas Theorem: “If people define situations as real, they

(situations) are real in their consequences”(situations) are real in their consequences” (Robert K. Merton)(Robert K. Merton)

Term-usage historically and theoretically contingent upon the nature Term-usage historically and theoretically contingent upon the nature and forms of interaction between more influential culturesand forms of interaction between more influential cultures

Conceptual OriginConceptual OriginLiberal/Neoliberal/Marxist/Neomarxist originLiberal/Neoliberal/Marxist/Neomarxist originXIX century (Since Napoleonic Wars, Habsburg and Ottoman-XIX century (Since Napoleonic Wars, Habsburg and Ottoman-ruled Europeruled EuropeXX centuryXX century

Early, Mid, LateEarly, Mid, Late

Nationalism (N) = Nationalism (N) = (f)(f) (Perceived) Threat Level (Perceived) Threat Levela function of perceived threat within a groupa function of perceived threat within a group


(Perceived) Threat (Perceived) Threat LevelLevel

Na

tio

na

lism

Na

tio

na

lism

Nationalism FunctionNationalism Function


StrategyStrategy

A matter of adaptation to perceived realityA matter of adaptation to perceived reality What is rational for one state can be irrational for anotherWhat is rational for one state can be irrational for another Each state has a unique, distinctive, historyEach state has a unique, distinctive, history Each state learns (or mislearns) from its assessment of that unique, distinctive Each state learns (or mislearns) from its assessment of that unique, distinctive history history

Strategic CultureStrategic Culture

The persisting (though not eternal) socially transmitted ideas, attitudes, traditions, The persisting (though not eternal) socially transmitted ideas, attitudes, traditions, habits of mind, and preferred methods of operation that are more or less specific to a habits of mind, and preferred methods of operation that are more or less specific to a particularly geographically based security community that has had a necessarily particularly geographically based security community that has had a necessarily unique historical experienceunique historical experience

Lord identifies elements or dimensions of a strategic culture: the geopolitical setting, Lord identifies elements or dimensions of a strategic culture: the geopolitical setting, military history, international relationships, political culture and ideology, the nature of military history, international relationships, political culture and ideology, the nature of civil-military relations and military technology (Lord, 2000)civil-military relations and military technology (Lord, 2000)

Strategic culture and national style that failed to meet objective tests of adequacy Strategic culture and national style that failed to meet objective tests of adequacy imposed by external security environments (polities) would lead inevitably to the imposed by external security environments (polities) would lead inevitably to the political, if not always physical, demise of the nationpolitical, if not always physical, demise of the nation

Strategic Culture Strategic Culture


WhoWho or or whatwhat defines Serbia’s (strategic) culture? defines Serbia’s (strategic) culture?

What are Serbia’s core values?What are Serbia’s core values?

Have the Have the existing institutionsexisting institutions of Serbia been the optimal of Serbia been the optimal framework for Serbia’s strategic culture?framework for Serbia’s strategic culture?1.1. If yes, why?If yes, why?2.2. If not, why not?If not, why not?

How does Serbia’s (strategic) culture develop How does Serbia’s (strategic) culture develop hypotheseshypotheses to test to test historical propositions historical propositions (“(“consequentiality of consequentiality of historyhistory”)”), , predict futurepredict future, and social-experiment, to arrive , and social-experiment, to arrive at the predicted future at the predicted future without threatening others?without threatening others?

Key Questions for Serbia Key Questions for Serbia


Key Questions for Serbia Key Questions for Serbia (cont.)(cont.)

Is “first line of (Serbia’s strategic culture) defense” to look globally? Is “first line of (Serbia’s strategic culture) defense” to look globally? Why? How?Why? How?Why not?Why not?

Is sovereignty over Kosovo-Metohija necessary condition for Is sovereignty over Kosovo-Metohija necessary condition for Serbia’s stability? Existence?Serbia’s stability? Existence?

How important is Republika Srpska for Serbia? Why?How important is Republika Srpska for Serbia? Why?

What does “What does “nation brandingnation branding” (of Serbia) mean? What is Serbia’s ” (of Serbia) mean? What is Serbia’s Competitive Identity?Competitive Identity?

How does Serbia restore its strategic culture’s value system How does Serbia restore its strategic culture’s value system balance?balance?


Serbia TodaySerbia TodayStrategic environment is complex, unpredictable, unstable, and (still) threateningStrategic environment is complex, unpredictable, unstable, and (still) threatening

Serbia does not control its own strategic decisionmakingSerbia does not control its own strategic decisionmakingElites are (still) confused and mutually in conflictElites are (still) confused and mutually in conflictKosovo & Metohija - protectorateKosovo & Metohija - protectorateLearning is slowLearning is slowProblems & dilemmas of identity and strategic orientationProblems & dilemmas of identity and strategic orientationEconomy is (still) mismanaged, underutilized, not transparent, lacks focusEconomy is (still) mismanaged, underutilized, not transparent, lacks focusPolicy Errors (I, II & III)Policy Errors (I, II & III)

E I: Accepting the null hypothesis when it is falseE I: Accepting the null hypothesis when it is falseE II: Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is trueE II: Rejecting the null hypothesis when it is trueE III‘: Solving’ the wrong problem’E III‘: Solving’ the wrong problem’

Strategic Culture Negative Value ImbalanceStrategic Culture Negative Value Imbalance

Serbia is not an actor with power and capability to affect the dynamics in the Serbia is not an actor with power and capability to affect the dynamics in the regionregion

Cognitive closures and misperceptionsCognitive closures and misperceptions

Unsustainable bureaucracy (26 Ministries)Unsustainable bureaucracy (26 Ministries)

Election-drivenElection-driven

Absorbed and distracted with its own “nationalism”Absorbed and distracted with its own “nationalism”


Restoring the Balance of Serbia’s Restoring the Balance of Serbia’s Strategic CultureStrategic Culture

““It is not just sufficient to be a good neighbor. It is not just sufficient to be a good neighbor. One must also be a good ancestor” One must also be a good ancestor” Simon Anholt Simon Anholt


Understand causes and consequences of Strategic Culture’s Understand causes and consequences of Strategic Culture’s Negative Value ImbalanceNegative Value Imbalance

Reconstruct/Repair Serbian IdentityReconstruct/Repair Serbian Identity Harmonize and synchronize “old” (Serbia) and “new” (Serbia)Harmonize and synchronize “old” (Serbia) and “new” (Serbia) Harmonize and synchronize “East” and “West” in SerbiaHarmonize and synchronize “East” and “West” in Serbia Restore Strategic Value Transfer /Transplant Balance (“value Restore Strategic Value Transfer /Transplant Balance (“value

exports vs. value imports”)exports vs. value imports”) Develop policy analytical tools and expertiseDevelop policy analytical tools and expertise

Problem structuring, forecasting/policy alternatives, policy recommendations, Problem structuring, forecasting/policy alternatives, policy recommendations, policy monitoring, and policy evaluationpolicy monitoring, and policy evaluation

invest in civil service education, training and expertiseinvest in civil service education, training and expertise

Restoring the BalanceRestoring the Balance


Develop branding strategy Develop branding strategy (“Competitive Identity”) of Serbia (“Competitive Identity”) of Serbia

Nation branding - “interface” linking governance, statecraft, economic Nation branding - “interface” linking governance, statecraft, economic development, and planningdevelopment, and planning

Brand identity, brand image, brand purpose, brand equity”Brand identity, brand image, brand purpose, brand equity”

Educate and train (meta) leadersEducate and train (meta) leaders

Develop a different context for interaction between Develop a different context for interaction between (strategic) culture and government(strategic) culture and government

Develop constructive and more effective Develop constructive and more effective institutional institutional proceduresprocedures and and mechanismsmechanisms for perceiving and dealing with the for perceiving and dealing with the realities Serbia experiencesrealities Serbia experiences

Change the nature and type of transactions between branches of Change the nature and type of transactions between branches of government (legislative, executive, judicial)government (legislative, executive, judicial)

Restoring the Balance Restoring the Balance (cont.)(cont.)


Restoring the Balance Restoring the Balance (cont.)(cont.)

Toward Serbia 2020: Toward Serbia 2020:

A New Constitutional Model A New Constitutional Model


Documents

Global Interactions & The Future of Serbia Slobodan Pesic American Public University The Pesic Group International Conference SERBIA IN CONTEMPORARY GEO-STRATEGIC