Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)

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Thomas JungAlfred Wegener Institute, Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research25 February 2014

A short introduction to GIPPS Implementation of GIPPS

• WWRP Polar Prediction Project• WCRP Polar Climate Predictability Initiative

• Presentation by Vladimir Ryabinin Coordination

Outline

Global Integrated Polar Prediction System• Global: International effort and poles have

global influences• Integrated: Interconnection between systems

and system will be integrated (research, observations and services)

• Polar prediction will be central Three time scales

• Short-term prediction (hours to seasonal)• Medium-term predictability (seasonal to

decadal)• Long-term projection of ice mass balance and

sea level (centuries)

GIPPS

Improved understand of key processes that drive polar weather and climate

Improved models Improved data assimilation systems Optimized observing system Improved services (e.g. shipping and long-term

planning)

Benefits

The WWRP Polar Prediction Project(2013-2022)

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Some statements from the report: The Arctic is likely to attract

substantial investment over the coming decade ($100 bn)

The environmental consequences of disasters in the Arctic are likely to be worse than in other regions

Significant knowledge gaps across the Arctic need to be closed urgently

http://www.lloyds.com/news-and-insight/risk-insight/reports/climate-change/arctic-report-2012

Opportunities and Risks

PPP Mission Statement

„Promote cooperative international research enabling development of improved weather and environmental prediction services for the polar regions, on time scales from hourly to seasonal“

An important addition:„This constitutes the hourly to seasonal research component of the WMO Global Integrated Polar Prediction System (GIPPS)“

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The WWRP-PPP Steering Group

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Jonny Day (APECS liasion) Neil Gordon (WMO consultant)

SG4, Boulder, 1-3 October 2013

Thomas Jung (chair) Peter Bauer David Bromwich Paco Doblas-Reyes Chris Fairall Marika Holland Trond Iversen Brian Mills Pertti Nurmi Don Perovich Phil Reid Ian Renfrew Gregory Smith Gunilla Svensson Mikhail Tolstykh

WWRP-PPP Plans

Research Areas

Source: PPP Implementation Plan

Connections – p24 of PPP IP

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Observational Challenges

Polar data coverage of conventional observations in the ECMWF operational analysis on 1 January 2012

Synop, AIREP, DRIBU, TEMP and PILOT

P. Bauer (ECMWF)

Role of Sea Ice in Weather Prediction

T2m Difference: Observed Minus Persisted Sea Ice

P. Bauer (ECMWF)

Sea ice prediction

MITgcm @ 4km resolution, Simulation desribed in Nguyen et al (2012) and Rignot et al. (2012)

Mean September sea ice concentrations (1979-2007)

PPP Flagship Activities

Sea ice prediction• Explore predictability• Develop prediction systems

Linkages between polar regions and lower-latitudes• Determine mechanisms and strengths• Implications for predictions in the mid-latitudes

Improved availability of observations from polar regions

The Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

Preparation Phase2013 to mid-2017

Consolidation Phase

mid-2019 to 2022Community engagement

Liaise with funders

Align with otherplanned activities

Preparatory research

Summer schoolWorkshops

Develop imple- mentation plan

Intensive observing periods

Dedicated model experiments

Research into use & value of forecasts

Intensive verification effort

Model developments

Dedicated reanalyses

Operational implementation

YOPP publications

Data denial experiments

Preparation Phase 2013 to mid-2017

YOPP mid- 2017 to mid-

2019

Consolidation Phase mid-

2019 to 2022

YOPP conference

Summer school

Year of Polar Prediction (YOPP)

YOPP Key Elements

Comprehensive observational snapshot• In situ and satellite data• Observing system design (data denial experiments)• Supersites (model grid boxes MOSAiC)

Model development (e.g. Transpose-CMIP)Community data sets (reforecasts, special archiving

etc.)Frontier experiments (e.g. high-resolution modelling)

See draft YOPP Implementation Plan – Inf. 12-1

Immediate Plans – ASSW / AOS-2 Helsinki

8 April 2014One day YOPP Planning meeting – emphasis on

observations and many partners invited (including IICWG)

9 April 2014 Thomas Jung will take part in Stakeholders Panel

as part of AOS-2 on 9 April “Town Hall Meeting” with panel discussing

PPP/YOPP in evening (panelists include Gilbert Brunet, Thomas Jung and Mark Drinkwater)

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Immediate PlansWWOSC & Linkages

16-21 August 2014PPP session at World WeatherOpen Science Conference, MontréalPPP-SG-5 meeting in association with this

will “finalise” YOPP Plan 10-12 December 2014

International Workshop on Polar-lower Latitudes Linkages and Their Role in Weather and Climate Prediction – being planned for Barcelona. Invitation only; collaboration between PPP and PCPI

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PPP – Take home messges

Polar prediction is a topic of increasing importanceDecision making in the high-latitudes Implications for the lower-latitudes

PPP promotes research in polar prediction PPP also promotes research into the use and value of

polar predictions in decision making PPP has a strong educational component PPP flagship themes

Sea ice predictionLinkages between polar and non-polar regionsYOPP (see draft YOPP Implementation Plan)

Coordination

EC-PORS International Polar Partnership Initiative (IPPI)PPP and PCPI

International Coordination Office for Polar Prediction

Recommendations of EC-PORS to Cg-17

Points Raised Earlier:Regular feedback on progressCoordination between PPP and PCPI, and role of

ICO for Polar Prediction at AWICoordination with other organisationsPromote GIPPS with

Member states (Trust Fund) Funding agencies

Consider GIPPS funding from regular WMO budgetSuggestion: Draft proposal to be discussed and possibly revised in

Research break out groupDiscussion of the outcome with all panel members

Thank you!

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