Global Impacts of Emerging Technologies

The Nanofactory:Science Fiction Becoming Reality

Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible Nanotechnology

21.02.2003

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

“A time when no one lacks for any need,

and everyone is enabled to reach

their full potential.”WARNIN

G!Technology can be misused

Advanced technology = Advanced dangers

The Promise of Modern

Technology

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

What Is Nanotechnology?

Two kinds of nanotech Structural nanotechnology (SNT)

Current technology Exploiting properties of nanoscale structures

Molecular nanotechnology (MNT) Near future technology Designing and manipulating individual

molecules Building shapes…machines…products Also known as molecular manufacturing

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

What Is a Nanofactory?

Portable, non-polluting, easy to use machine

Manufactures almost anything in just a few hours –- including copies of itself!

Uses CAD program to design new and improved products

Cost of materials: ~ $1 per pound

Simplest, safest way to make wide use of advanced nanotechnology

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

How Will It Be Built?

Assembler comes first Single assembler builds a two-

assembler device Which builds a four-assembler device Which builds a tiny nanofactory Each small nanofactory makes a bigger

one This scales quickly to tabletop size

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

Is It Really Possible?

“When a distinguished but elderly scientist states that something is possible, he is almost certainly right. When he states that something

is impossible, he is very probably wrong.”

— Arthur C. Clarke

"If you're looking ahead long-term, and what you see looks like science fiction, it might be

wrong. But if it doesn't look like science fiction, it's definitely wrong."

— Christine Peterson

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

When Will It Happen?

Prediction range: 10 years to never Hardest step is assembler After that, it’s only a matter of weeks to

a macroscale nanofactory First nanofactory copies itself, etc. In a few months, you could have billions

of nanofactories –- enough for one in every household in the world!

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

Everyone and everythingWeapons and warfareSecurity and privacyEconomics and human rightsEnvironmental risks and benefits

“The nanotechnology revolution has the potential to change America on a scale equal to, if not greater than, the computer revolution." 

—  Senator Ron Wyden (D-Ore.)

Who Will Be Affected?

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

Who Is Working on It? Institute for Molecular Manufacturing

- Theoretical research into building assemblers

Zyvex- Practical research into building assemblers

Center for Responsible Nanotechnology- Nanofactory design research

University and corporate research

worldwide

Covert programs??

Global, multi-nation project

Leading industrial nation

Huge multinational corporationWealthy non-aligned nationMultinational terrorist organization

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011

Threshold for Beginning a Nanofactory Development Project

Decreasing Projected Cost

$500M

$1B

$2B

$4B

$6B

www.CRNano.orwww.CRNano.orgg

CRN’s Platform1. Effective use of nanotechnology can benefit everyone2. Unwise use of nanotechnology can be very

dangerous3. Nanofactory technology can be used safely4. Preventing nanotechnology is impossible; careful

study will be necessary for wise use5. Effective use of nanotechnology will require

intelligent and prudent policy-making6. The situation is urgent; nanofactories may be

developed within a decade“CRN is addressing the crucial policy issues in advanced nanotechnology—not just responsibly, but creatively."

—  K. Eric Drexler

Thank You!More information: www.CRNano.org

Mike Treder, Executive DirectorCenter for Responsible

Nanotechnology™

© 2003, CRN© 2003, CRN