Global Impacts: Measuring the Impact of UK Consumption on Biodiversity

Overseas

Chris West, Elena Dawkins, Simon Croft, David Raffaelli, William Sheate

6th December 2012

Outline of Global Impacts SessionTime Activity11.15 Presentation: An introduction to preliminary work on developing a

potential Global Impacts methodology

11.30 Questions related to the presentation

11.45 Discussion: Limitations and Assumptions of the methodology

12.25 Discussion: Moving from prototype to indicator

12.55 Discussion: Targets

13.15? Close, and lunch

Defra Project Background• Project Duration: Nov 2011 – March 2013

• The Issue– Growing consumption, increasing reliance on imports– Complex supply chains– Indirect and direct impacts of consumption– Overseas biodiversity impacts

• Project Aim – provide a database-driven methodology for linking UK imports to

geographically-defined impacts on biodiversity

Study Products covered Method Applied Biodiversity Indicator(s)

Trends in EU virtual land flows: EU agricultural land use through international trade, Van Sleen (2009)

Wheat case study Material flow analysis with a multi-criteria assessment of impacts

• Genetic diversity• Species diversity• Overall environmental

utility

Dutch Trade and Biodiversity, Kamphuis et al. (2011)

Soya, palm oil and tropical timber products

Trade flow analysis, combined with land area production data.

• Relative species richness

• Relative species richness of original species

Global Biodiversity Database, Scott Wilson (2007)

Soya, lumber palm oil, cotton, shrimps and wine

Trade flow analysis. Identification of ecoregions (WWF) in the country of production, threats to ecoregion.

• Ecoregion land area apportioned by import demand

The global biodiversity footprint of UK biofuel consumption, JNCC (2009)

Biofuels Trade data; source countries and crops, estimate land use requirement and identify the ecosystems under pressure

• Land use matched to region

Existing studies

Existing studiesStudy Products

coveredMethod Applied Biodiversity Indicator

The global land use impact of the United Kingdom’s biomass consumption, JNCC (2011) Part I

Biomass Material flow data (e.g. domestic material consumption) and biomass import data . Land required to supply products, with crop yields and crop water requirements.

• Matched land area requirements of imports to Biogeographical realms, biomes and specific countries

UK National Ecosystem Assessment Technical Report. Chapter 21: UK Dependence on non-UK Ecosystem Services, UNEP-WCMC (2011)

Biomass Import data from converted to land area requirements using crop yields and matched to the Biogeographical Realms . MFA used to track the history of biomass consumption in the UK.

• Matched land area requirements of imports to Biogeographical realms, biomes and specific countries

Lenzen et al. (2012) MRIO and biodiversity threats

Those that ‘threaten’ species

Multi-regional input-output model linked to listed ‘threats’ within the IUCN Red List.

• IUCN Red List Species under threat

• Our approach:

– Understanding consumption: • Measuring trade and supply chains• Linking production abroad with imports to the UK

– Understanding potential biodiversity impacts: • Selecting indicators of biodiversity • Linking indicators to production abroad

Defra Project Background

Trade information:

• Import, export data exists from HMRC, FAO, UN, Eurostat, OECD...– Physical– Financial

• Input-Output (IO) tables map interactions between industry throughout the whole economy. They are necessary to measure indirect/embedded materials within products. They capture the full supply chains of goods.

• We selected GTAP data based on the criteria: – Availability (current and likely future) – Number of regions covered vs no. of sectors covered– Regularly updated– New version just released

Understanding Trade and Consumption

GTAP/MRIO approach:

• Financial flows between 129 countries (multi-regional), across 57 sectors.

• Interactions between economic sectors (all inputs and outputs of whole economy) mapped out in tables (input-output).

• Limitations:– Limited sector resolution– Released every 4 years (latest version has 2004 and 2007 data)– Financial flows not physical quantities

MRIO data

Linking to detailed production data

• FAO: – Agriculture stats: yield, area harvested, production and trade flows for 236

Countries and over 600 products– ForeSTAT: production, import, export for wood product groups– FishSTAT: total capture, aquaculture, commodities, production and trade

• This is more detailed than the financial data, but lacks information about full supply chains.

• We need a method to link detailed product data to the full supply-chain in input-output models…

Diagram of MRIO physical model adapted from: Brad R. Ewing, Troy R. Hawkins, Thomas O. Wiedmann, Alessandro Galli, A. Ertug Ercin, Jan Weinzettel, Kjartan Steen-Olsen, Integrating ecological and water footprint accounting in a multi-regional input–output framework, Ecological Indicators, Volume 23, December 2012, http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1470160X12000714

Linking production data to MRIO

• Method 1: Allocate physical production of each product and country within FAO to an equivalent producing sector and region within GTAP– Relies solely on financial MRIO data to model trade in commodities

between sectors

• Method 2: Allocate physical production to importing regions in GTAP– Hybrid approach; requires harmonisation of datasets and method for

dealing with re-exports in the physical data

• Method 3: Allocate physical production to regions and sectors in GTAP– Retains product detail to greatest extent but requires seed and feed data

UK Demand for products from:

Product demanded:

Total embedded Brazilian land area used for soybean production

UK Food products nec 184,555UK Trade 34,198

UKBeverages and tobacco products 29,981

UK

Public Administration Defense Education Health 29,697

UKVegetable oils and fats 22,500

China Wearing apparel 10,715

BrazilVegetable oils and fats 10,146

FAO Trade Data

Exports of soybeans to UK

What it tells you:• Exports of raw

materials/commodities to a country.

What it doesn’t tell you:• Where the final/processed

products end up, and whether they are re-exported

• Any ‘hidden’ impacts embedded in products e.g. soya embedded in meat products

DEFRA MODEL

UK Demand for products with ‘embedded’ soybeans

What it tells you:• Impacts (land associated with soybean

production in this case) associated with demand for any products (including ‘hidden’ land embedded in products).

Country TonnesBrazil 619000United States of America 27908Ireland 19539Belgium 14560Ukraine 10418Netherlands 10097Italy 6806Argentina 5063China 4485

• Environmental ‘extensions’ can be added to the production data:– From FAO we have details on yields by country and can therefore

calculate land requirements– We also have data on water consumption and pollution (in the form of

form of green, blue, and grey water– Some fertiliser data is available– IUCN RedList, Important Bird Area databases contain information

about species threats– Other regional information about endemism, habitat types etc.

• These extensions can be viewed in isolation or potentially combined.

Linking production quantity to impact

Sectors linked to physical production and land use data – sector level (e.g. fruit and veg, not mangos)

Physical production linked to environmental drivers of biodiversity loss and indicators

Method Summary• Defra model enables a detailed look at products and land use/ water/

biodiversity impacts etc. of those products.

• Benefits of Defra Model:– Retains product-level detail of FAO. Combines FAO physical data with MRIO financial flow

data.– Calculates all of the ‘hidden’/embedded impacts in products that might be missed in just

direct import/export data of the actual commodity (e.g. captures soya imported via meat products).

– Assesses impacts associated with the final consumption of products, compared to FAO trade data where commodities are likely to go into industry (rather than final consumers) and be processed and either consumed or re-exported elsewhere.

• Defra model:– Still under development, builds on work from OPEN-EU project, adds additional datasets

and indicators for anything associated with production of commodities.– Initial results are starting to become available for UK demand….

• The Hybrid-MRIO model still only contains information to country-level.

• To validate the model, and provide further regionally-specific information we are conducting case studies on Brazilian soybeans and shrimps (probably from Asia).

• It is intended that this approach can be used to drill-down into potential impact ‘hotspots’ inferred in the model.

Case Studies and Knowledge Base

• The following results are (very!) preliminary and therefore only for illustration:– Based on Method 1 (allocating products from FAO to producing

sectors in GTAP).– Available for only a handful of commodities at present.– Some outstanding data issues (e.g. with China data in FAO).– Biodiversity extensions are undergoing further work.

Preliminary results

‘Raw’ data from FAO shows direct imports of soybeans into the UK by exporting country:

Running the data through the hybrid-MRIO model gives us this:

Soybean consumption by the UK (2007)Country TonnesBrazil 619000United States of America 27908Ireland 19539Belgium 14560Ukraine 10418Netherlands 10097Italy 6806Argentina 5063China 4485

Brazil 1424584Argentina 1120954United States of America 535523Paraguay 117199India 44119Canada 39477Ukraine 19371Italy 10307Uruguay 9966Bolivia 5976

We can also look at how demand for different sectors contributes to this production:

Soybean consumption by the UK (2007)Demand from Sector Source Country Tonnes

Food products nec Brazil 688573

Food products nec Argentina 521460

Food products nec United States of America

190930

Vegetable oils and fats Brazil 115469

Beverages and tobacco products

Brazil 106558

Trade Brazil 106072

Vegetable oils and fats Argentina 89162

Public Administration Defense Education Health

Brazil 85703

Trade Argentina 82316

We can also look at how demand for different sectors contributes to this production:

Beyond Production: Top Ten: Seed cotton consumption by the UK (2007)

CountryProduction

(tonnes)Production

RankLand

Use (ha)

Land Use

RankBlue Water

(m3)

Blue Water Rank

Grey Water (m3)

Grey Water Rank

Redlist Species

IBAs (A1)

India 390,124

1

266,967

1

728,122,607

1 376552408 1

121 0

Pakistan 214,580

2

115,439

2

462,589,208

2 152503126 2

17 0

United States of America

164,800

3

68,860

4

148,839,426

5 35181297 3

56 2

Uzbekistan 136,869

4

53,359

5

457,217,578

3 1137 52

11 33

Turkmenistan 34,983

5

23,672

7

166,933,847

4 3861 48

8 26

Brazil 31,314

6

8,578

12

557,141

29 18893396 4 99 19

Greece 16,153

7

5,637

13 19,151,158

11 0 116 12 0

Tajikistan 15,462

8

9,293

10 59,604,994

6 398738 18

9 18

United Republic of Tanzania

13,338

9

29,911

6 5,303,360

15 876390 10 120 15

Australia 12,623

10

2,630

27 23,057,790

9 401987 17

39 64

Beyond Production: Seed cotton consumption by the UK (2007)

Country Land Use (ha) Redlist Species RedList 'Weighting'Old Rank New RankIndia 266,967 121 32,303,044 1 1Pakistan 115,439 17 1,962,457 2 4United States of America 68,860 56 3,856,147 3 2Uzbekistan 53,359 11 586,949 4 6United Republic of Tanzania 29,911 120 3,589,376 5 3Turkmenistan 23,672 8 189,377 6 7Tajikistan 9,293 9 83,635 7 9Brazil 8,578 99 849,232 8 5Greece 5,637 12 67,640 9 10Australia 2,630 39 102,577 10 8

• By SEI:– JNCC/SNH project on material flow analysis for Scottish Biomass and

links to biodiversity impacts– WWF European Policy Office: EU Policy and consumption-related

impacts on WWF Priority Areas for conservation (feasibility study)

• By others: – Manfred Lenzen’s group in Australia– WWF China

Related ongoing and future work

Thank you!