Global Imbalances in a World of Inflexible Real Exchange Rates and Capital Controls

8/3/2019 Global Imbalances in a World of Inflexible Real Exchange Rates and Capital Controls

1/28

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5/28


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6/28


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7/28


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11/28


9

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12/28


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lf }edcc`r# opx }xicc cdrb` `lfpbk xf ie~cy MD 3 >dlh k`lm` >,A dlh H < >i} cdrb`, K`lm` rA'H < >dlh MD

3 ># }f >,A opx H 3 >i} cdrb`7 }f rA'H 3 ># MD < >dlh >,A 3

Zfl` @ kd} A < > dlh H 3 > }edcc`r# opx cdrb` `lfpbk xf ie~cy MD < > dlh >,A 3

K`lm` zfl`} D# M# B dlh K Wdofq` MD5>U dcc kdq` >A U dcc kdq` >A 3 # kimke`dl} xk` ~frxafcif cil` icc efq` xf xk` càx, Il fxk`r frh}# xk` mprr`lx dmmfplx odcdlm`cil` h`~imx} d }`x fa pl}xdoc` `tpiciorid il xk` }`l}` xkdx# flm` faa ix# ~frxafcif} }xdrx xfdhjp}x dlh xk` ~frxafcif odcdlm` ~f}ixifl} dcc }kiax, Xk` ~frxafcif cil`# oy mflxrd}x# hf`}lfx }kf pl}xdoc` `tpiciorid, Flm` faa ix# `{mkdlb` rdx`} dhjp}x xf ròdcdlm` ofxk xrdh`

dlh xk` d}}`x hi}xriopxifl, Xkp}# ` drriq` dx xk` il`tpdcixi`}# }kiax} dlh hyldeimdhjp}xe`lx} hi}~cdy`h il Aibpr` ?,

Xki} hi}xilmxifl o`x``l xk` ldxprdc il}xdoicixy fa xk` mprr`lx dmmfplx `tpiciorid fl MD5>#dlh xkìr }xdoicixy fl Ô5># i} d ldxprdc mfl}`tp`lm` fa d }xfmg%acf dhjp}xe`lx ~rfm`}},


13/28


44

Aibpr` ?: Dhjp}xe`lx ^dxk} afr xk` _`dc @{mkdlb` _dx` dlh Afrìbl ^frxafcifOdcdlm`}

]fprm`: Dpxkfr}

=,= ]xdoicixy fa xk` dhjp}xe`lx ~rfm`}}

]p~~f}` lf xkdx# afr }fe` r`d}fl# fpr xf `mflfei`} kdh drriq`h dx d ~f}ixifl il zfl`B fa Aibpr` 4 +xkdx i} fl xk` p~~`r }ih` o`x``l xk` xf odcdlm` cil`})# opx xk`r` kd}o``l lf mkdlb` il d}}`x ~rà`r`lm`} fr kfe` oid}`}, Xki} mfpch kdq` kd~~`l`ho`mdp}` fa d h`x`rifrdxifl il kfe`} r`dc `{mkdlb` rdx` +ri}ilb mf}x})7 fr o`mdp}` fa dmkdlb` fa ~fcimy +kfe` rpl}d ai}mdc hàimix# mdp}ilb d xrdh` hàimix)7 fr o`mdp}` fa d }kiaxil r`cdxiq` ~rim`} fr ~rà`r`lm` afr kfe` bffh} +f~`lilb xf mk`d~ ie~frx}# hi}mfq`ry fal` x`mklfcfbi`}),

Kf hf xk` `mflfei`} dhjp}x arfe k`r`6 Kfe`} xrdh` hàimix fpxìbk} k`r l`xilq`}xe`lx `drlilb} +ia dly), Xki} ie~ci`} d mprr`lx dmmfplx hàimix# dlh k`lm` d

h`mr`d}` il kfe`} afrìbl d}}`x} fr dl ilmr`d}` il k`r l`x hòx, Il d frch fa acfdxilb`{mkdlb` rdx`}# xki} c`dh} xf xf àa`mx}: dl ilmr`d}` il afrìbl} kfchilb} fa kfe`}d}}`x} d} afrìbl r`mymc`} k`r }pr~cp} `drlilb} fa kfe`} mprr`lmy fr }xfmg~ic`} xkè ilk`r r`}`rq`}7 dlh xf d h`~r`midxifl fa xk` `{mkdlb` rdx` kimk r`hpm`} xk` xrdh` hàimixia afrìbl }`cc} xkdx }pr~cp} kfe` mprr`lmy, Xk` xf `mflfei`} xk`ràfr` efq` hfl xk`}dhhc` ~dxk il d }fpxk%`d}x`rcy hir`mxifl# d} ilhimdx`h il Aibpr` =# plxic xk` `tpicioripe+}x`dhy }xdx`) ~filx k`r` Ô5>dlh MD5>mrf}} i} r`dmk`h,


14/28


4?

Aibpr` =: Xk` ]xdoc` @tpicioripe

]fprm`: Dpxkfr}

Lf ` }`` }fe`xkilb xkdx fpch lfx lfredccy d~~`dr il ~kd}` hidbrde} }pmk d}xk`}`, ]xdoicixy lfx flcy r`tpir`} efqè`lx} xf xk` }fpxk%`d}x, Ix ep}x dc}f o` xkdx xkìlmr`d}`h ilx`r`}x ~dye`lx} fl kfe`} +lf kibk`r) l`x hòx `{dmxcy edxmk xk`h`mr`d}`} il k`r xrdh` hàimix xf }xf~ xk` efqè`lx}, Ix icc kd~~`l dpxfedximdccy dx xkìlx`r}`mxifl ~filx, Opx xf b`x xf xkdx ~filx h`~`lh} fl kf xk` `cd}ximixi`} fa xk` xrdh`r`}~fl}` edxmk p~ xf xk` }~``h fa ~frxafcif dhjp}xe`lx}, Ia xk` `{mkdlb` rdx` i} }ximgy#fr xk`r` dr` dxxè~x} xf g``~ ix ai{`h# ix edy mfe` dofpx xkrfpbk dl dhjp}xe`lx ~dxk xkdxefq`} efr` `d}x xkdl }fpxk dlh xk`ràfr` kix} xk` ~frxafcif odcdlm` cil` oàfr` xkìlx`r}`mxifl ~filx, Xki} e`dl} xk` `drcy dhjp}xe`lx} xdg` ~cdm` xkrfpbk l`x hòxdmmpepcdxifl fr r`hi}xriopxifl# dlh xk` cdx`r fl`} xkrfpbk `{mkdlb` rdx` mkdlb`}mdp}`h oy ~frxafcif dhjp}xe`lx} il r`}~fl}` xf qdcpdxifl mkdlb`} d} xk` `{~`mx`h r`dcrdx` fa r`xprl fl kfe` d}}`x} adcc} +}`` +1)# dlh xk`l +4>)), Xk`l# flm` ` r`dmk xk`Ô5>cil` ` }cih` hfl ix, Fa mfpr}`# ix edy kd~~`l xk` fxk`r dy, Ia xk` `{mkdlb` rdxì} ac`{ioc` dlh }`l}ixiq`# xk` dhjp}xe`lx} dr` ef}xcy }fpxk# lfx `d}x# d} afrìbl hpe~} ix}}pr~cp} afrìbl mprr`lmy r`}`rq`} plxic xk` MD5> cil` i} r`dmk`h, Xk` xrdh` hàimix kd}o``l r`hpm`h `lfpbk xf odcdlm` mprr`lx ilx`r`}x ~dye`lx} fl l`x hòx# opx l``h} xf adccaprxk`r xf edg` }~dm` afr ilx`r`}x ~dye`lx} fl xk` `{xrd hòx mr`dx`h }ilm` qdcpdxiflmkdlb`} icc kdq` edh` kfe`} d}}`x} cffg ilmr`d}ilbcy dxxrdmxiq`, K`lm`# xki} xie` `}cih` hfl xk` MD5>cil`, Opx# ìxk`r dy# xk` dhjp}xe`lx ~rfm`}} i} }xdoc` dlh h`~`lh}k`dqicy +opx lfx `{mcp}iq`cy) fl qdcpdxifl àa`mx},

R` mdl x`cc `{dmxcy xk` }de` }xfry il r`q`r}` ia ` }xdrx arfe d ~filx il zfl` @# o`x``lxk` cil`} fl xk` cf`r }ih` il Aibpr` 4, Opx }xdrxilb arfe dly fxk`r ~f}ixifl# }xdoicixy i} lfx


15/28


4=

d}}pr`h, Ix h`~`lh} fl xk` `{mkdlb` rdx` oìlb efr` }`l}ixiq` dlh ac`{ioc` xkdl xk` l`xhòx dmmpepcdxifl ~rfm`}}: }`` Aibpr` ?, Xki} mdllfx o` bpdrdlx``h afr dcc ~drde`x`rqdcp`}, Opx ia ix i} xrp`# xk`l xk` dhjp}xe`lx} icc ìxk`r kix xk` Ô5>cil`# ia ` }xdrx arfedofq`# fr xk` MD5>cil` ia ` }xdrx arfe o`cf# dlh xk` dhjp}xe`lx} icc xk`l efq` dcflbxk` r`c`qdlx cil` d} xkf}` qdcpdxifl àa`mx} dhjp}x d} il xk` ~r`qifp} ~drdbrd~k, Il dccfxk`r md}`}# }xdoicixy icc o` cf}x,

Aildccy# ix i} `d}y xf }`` xkdx ia xk` r`cdxiq` }cf~`} fa xk` Ô5>dlh MD5> cil`} o`mfe`r`q`r}`h +xk` MD5>cil` i} }x``~`r)# xk`l }xdoicixy i} dc}f cf}x, Xk` ~fx`lxidc `tpiciorid dr`dcdy} pl}xdoc` il xki} md}`, Aibpr` 8# kimk i} h`riq`h arfe xk` }de` ilafredxifl d}Aibpr` ?# }kf} xki} hir`mxcy,

Aibpr` 8: Xk` Pl}xdoc` @tpicioripe

]fprm`: Dpxkfr}

Xk`r` i} fl` tpdciayilb rèdrg xf edg` oàfr` ` bf fl xf }~`miaim ~fcimy r`bie`}, Xki}dldcy}i} kd} dcc o``l mflhpmx`h ixk cfmdc cil`drizdxifl} dofpx fl` ~drximpcdr `tpicioripe~filx, Il d lfl%cil`dr frch ix i} ~f}}ioc` xf kdq` epcxi~c` }x`dhy }xdx`}# }fe` }xdoc` cigÀibpr` = dlh }fe` pl}xdoc` cig` Aibpr` 8, Il }`mxifl 0 ` ailh xkdx xki} icc il admx o` xk`

}xdlhdrh fpxmfe` +}`` aibpr`} 1 dlh 2),


16/28


48

=,8 L`m`}}dry dlh }paaimi`lx mflhixifl} afr }xdoicixy

Xkp} xf `l}pr` }xdoicixy il ofxk xrdh` dlh ilx`rldxifldc md~ixdc edrg`x}# ` l``h xk`}cf~` fa xk` ~frxafcif odcdlm` cil` xf `{m``h xkdx fa xk` mprr`lx dmmfplx cil`, P}ilb +;)

dlh +44)# xki} defplx} xf r`tpirilb:

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Kpbk`} Kdcc`xx dlh Edrxil`z Fciqd

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oy rdi}ilb r*+dccfilb xk` r`dc `{mkdlb` rdx` xf ri}`) ixkfpx rdi}ilb ix} kfe` oid}# dlhoy ilmr`d}ilb ix} d}}`x od}`,

8) Xkdx }dih# @kd} xf o` ar`` xf dhjp}x d} epmk d} r`tpir`h, ]ilm` @i} d r`dc `{mkdlb`rdx`# xki} icc kdq` }xrflb hfe`}xim ~fcimy ie~cimdxifl} afr `mflfei`} ixk hiaa`r`lxh`br``} fa ilacdxifl mflxrfc fr ixk edldb`h fr }ximgy +ilac`{ioc`) lfeildc `{mkdlb`

rdx`},

8, AI[@H @[MKDLB@ _DX@] DLH MDÎXDC MFLX_FC]

Lf ` mfe` xf xk` xf }~`miaim ~fcimy r`bie`} xkdx kdq` o``l ih`cy p}`h il xk` lde`fa bpdrdlx`ìlb }xdoicixy il xk` afrìbl `{mkdlb` dlh ilx`rldxifldc md~ixdc edrg`x}: air}x#ai{`h `{mkdlb` rdx`} +d} il xk` `prfzfl` `mflfei`}7 h` admxf o`x``l xk` P] dlh xk`^_M# fr afr dly mfplxry xkdx hfccdriz`}# `prf%iz`} fr fxk`ri}` ~`b} ix} mprr`lmy)7 dlh#}`mflh# xk` ih`d xkdx xrdhilb `mflfei`} }kfpch r`}xrimx# ia lfx mfe~c`x`cy mflxrfc# xkìlacf fr fpxacf fa afrìbl md~ixdc, Xki} i} dl fch ih`d# ~f~pcdr il edly h`q`cf~`h dlhh`q`cf~ilb mfplxri`} il xk` 490>}49;>}# afr ~rfx`mxilb dl `mflfey} l`x afrìbl hòx~f}ixifl, Opx ix kd} kdh d rèdrgdoc` r`qiqdc il xk` è`rbilb dlh h`q`cf~ilb `mflfei`}il r`m`lx y`dr}# d} d e`dl} xf }xdoiciz` xkìr l`x afrìbl cidoicixi`}ixkfpx dlyfl` r`dccyglfilb xk` ie~dmx fl `mflfeim ~`rafredlm`# fr k`xk`r xk` `mflfei`} icc o` }kiax`hxf d l` +dlh ~f}}iocy c`}} }dxi}admxfry) `tpicioripe ~f}ixifl dcxfb`xk`r, Afr `{de~c`#mfpch xk`}` ~fcimi`} kdq` xk` àa`mx fa r`hpmilb }kfrx x`re acpmxpdxifl} dx xk` mf}x failmr`d}ilb cflb x`re acpmxpdxifl}# }f xkdx xk` mkdlb`# k`l ix mfe`}# icc o` cdrb`r dlhefr` }`q`r` xkdl ix l``h kdq` o``l6 Xk`}` dr` hiaa`r`lx tp`}xifl} xf xkf}` dofpxàa`mxiq`l`}} fr `lafrmè`lx fa xk` mflxrfc}# fr xk` ilmr`d}`h }xdoicixy il l`x afrìblcidoicixi`} dmki`q`h,

Aibpr` 0 }kf} xk` ie~cimdxifl} fa ie~f}ilb r`bie`} }pmk d} xk`}`, Xki} hidbrde i}

aibpr` ? arfe }`mxifl =,? dofq` ixk ìxk`r d ai{`h `{mkdlb` rdx` #@ fr d ai{`h l`x afrìbl

cidoicixi`} cieix ,A

Afr `d}` fa `{~f}ixifl# ` d}}pe` xkdx kimk`q`r mfl}xrdilx d~~ci`} i}

oilhilb, Il fxk`r frh}# ` do}xrdmx arfe i}}p`} fa àa`mxiq`l`}} il ie~cè`lxdxifl dlh`lafrmè`lx,


18/28


41

Aibpr` 0: Dhjp}xe`lx ixk ai{`h `{mkdlb` rdx`} dlh md~ixdc mflxrfc}

]fprm`: Dpxkfr}

Il x`re} fa fpxmfe`} dlh ~`rafredlm`# xk` ie~cimdxifl} dr` d} afccf}:

4) Dx d ~filx }pmk d} D# il xk` ai{`h `{mkdlb` rdx` r`bie`# kfe`} mprr`lx dmmfplx i} ilhàimix dlh k`r l`x afrìbl hòx i} ilmr`d}ilb, ]f xk` Ô5> cil` icc }kiax ribkx# dlh iccmflxilp` xf hf }f afr d} cflb d} xk` ai{`h `{mkdlb` rdx` qdcp` rèdil} il ~cdm` ixkfpxh`~r`midxifl}, Xk` ~rfm`}} fa dhjp}xe`lx i} `{dmxcy xkdx h`}mrio`h il }`mxifl =,=# k`r`xk` `drcy }xdb` efqè`lx} ilqfcq` dhjp}xe`lx} il xk` l`x hòx&d}}`x} ~f}ixifl oàfr`xk` qdcpdxifl dlh `{mkdlb` rdx` àa`mx} xkdx mdp}` p} xf }cih` hfl xk` Ô5> cil` gimgil, Opx xk` hiaa`r`lm` i} xkdx ` l`q`r tpix` b`x xf D o`mdp}` lf `{mkdlb` rdx`

h`~r`midxifl} dr` dccf`h, ]f xk` Ô5>cil` efq`} fpx# dlh xk` dhjp}xe`lx} xf Aafccf+kfrizflxdccy xf xk` ribkx) ixkfpx `q`r apccy mdxmkilb p~ ixk xkdx cil`, Xki} r`bie` i} lfx}p}xdildoc` o`mdp}` kfe`} afrìbl hòx ilmr`d}`} ixkfpx cieix, Xkdx mdllfx o`}p}xdil`h afr `q`r7 hàdpcx icc or`dg xk` `{mkdlb` rdx` ~`b k`l xk` c`q`c fa hòx mdllf cflb`r o` }`rqim`h, Rk`l xkdx kd~~`l}# xk` `mflfey icc dhjp}x hfl xk` Ô5>cil`xicc ` r`dmk M, Opx xk` cflb`r xk` ~`b i} edilxdil`h# xk` aprxk`r xk` Ô5> cil` icc kdq`}kiax`h# xk` br`dx`r xk` ilmr`d}` il hòx dlh `q`lxpdc mprr`lmy mrd}k, Ia ` i}k xf dqfihxkf}` fpxmfe`}# kfe` fr afrìbl ep}x ilxrfhpm` md~ixdc mflxrfc} xf fq`rmfe` xk`


19/28


42

ie~f}}ioc` xrilixy;

?) ]ieicdrcy# dx ~filx O# ixk lf ai{`h `{mkdlb` rdx` mfl}xrdilx# kfe`} mprr`lx dmmfplx i}

il hàimix dlh l`x afrìbl hòx i} ilmr`d}ilb, ]p~`raimidccy xki} cffg} d} ia ix i} bfilb xf c`dhxf dl dhjp}xe`lx ~rfm`}} cig` xkdx il aibpr` =, Opx ix i} hiaa`r`lx7 air}x o`mdp}` ` bfx xf~filx O oy mfl}xrdilx# lfx d} d r`}pcx fa d jpe~ il @mdp}`h oy xk` edrg`x `{~`mxdxifl} fadb`lx} kf afr`}`` dhjp}xe`lx} hfl d }dhhc` ~dxk xf d l` `tpicioripe dx M, ]`mflh#` dr` faa xk` ~frxafcif odcdlm` cil` `q`l dx xk` }xdrxkimk e`dl} ilq`}xfr} dr`dhjp}xilb xkìr kfchilb} fa kfe`} l`x hòx# A# `q`l oàfr` d} `cc d} hprilb xk`xrdl}ixifl xf xk` l` `tpicioripe, K`lm` A dhjp}x} aprxk`r dlh ad}x`r xkdl il aibpr` =#ie~cyilb xkdx Ô5>efq`} rd~ihcy xf xk` ribkx,

7 fr xk`y ep}x c`x xk` `{mkdlb` rdx` ~`b bf7 fr afrìbl ep}x ilhpcb` il`q`r ilmr`d}ilb }x`ricizdxifl fa afrìbl mprr`lmy r`}`rq`} +plp}`h afrìbl d}}`x}), Ilfxk`r frh}# xk` pcxiedx` mflxrfc kd} xf o` ~cdm`h fl xk` md~ixdc dmmfplx# lfx xk` mprr`lxdmmfplxplxic ` dr` afrm`h xf dmm`~x d mkdlb` il xk` `{mkdlb` rdx`,

Rk`xk`r xk` mfeoildxifl fa xk`}` xf hiaa`r`lm`} icc dccf p} xf r`dmk# dlh }xdrx hfl#d }dhhc` ~dxk xf d l`# lfl%}xdxifldry `tpicioripe h`~`lh} fl xieilb, Xkdx i}# fl xkìlx`r~cdy fa hiaa`r`lm`} o`x``l xk` ad}x`r dhjp}xilb hòx +k`lm` p~drh ~r`}}pr` fl xk`mprr`lx dmmfplx hàimix)# q}, xk` }cf`r }kfrx rpl dhjp}xe`lx} fa xk` xrdh` mfe~fl`lx

+hfldrh ~r`}}pr` fl xk` mprr`lx dmmfplx hàimix), Ia xk` afre`r hfeildx`}# d} ` eibkx`{~`mx# ` icc lfx b`x odmg xf xk` >MD 5 mfl}xrdilxefqilb il}x`dh hfl d ~drdcc`c cil`dofq` ix# dx o`}x9

Fl xk` fxk`r kdlh# ia xk` xrdh` dmmfplx mkdlb`} hfeildx`# xk`l ` icc c`dq` xk` ilixidcmprr`lx dmmfplx hàimix dlh }xdrx hfl d mflq`lxifldc }dhhc` ~dxk il xk` p}pdc dy,

# plxic ` b`x mcf}` xf xk` ~frxafcif odcdlm` cil`7 d}}peilb fa mfpr}` xkdxxk` }cf`r efqilb xrdh` dhjp}xe`lx} lfl`xk`c`}} dccf p} xf mdxmk p~ ixk efqè`lx}il xk` ~frxafcif odcdlm`}, @q`lxpdccy dx Ô5># }kfpch ` `q`r b`x xk`r`# Aicc o` efqilb}cf`r xkdl xk` xrdh` odcdlm` dlh ix o`mfe`} ~f}}ioc` xf }cih` hfl xk` ~frxafcifodcdlm` cil` xf xk` l` `tpicioripe dx M, Opx xk`r` i} lf bpdrdlx`` xkdx }pmk d mdxmk p~icc o` ~f}}ioc`: ix h`~`lh} fl xk` ~r`mi}` xieilb dlh }iz`} fa xk` mkdlb`}# fl xkìe~frx&`{~frx ~rim` `cd}ximixi`}# fl Edr}kdcc%C`rl`r mflhixifl} q}, `qdcpdxifl àa`mx}# dlhfl `{~`mx`h r`cdxiq` rdx`} fa r`xprl&md~ixdc bdil} il hiaa`r`lx d}}`x}, Dlh xk`r` i} lf`{~`mxdxifl} jpe~ xf }xdrx p} faa, ]f xk`r` mdl o` lf bpdrdlx`` xkdx d l` `tpicioripefpch o` r`dmk`h,

K`lm`# dl `tpicioripe il xki} r`bie` i} m`rxdilcy ~f}}ioc`, Opx k`xk`r ` mfpch dmxpdccyr`dmk ix arfe dly ~drximpcdr md~ixdc fpxacf&ilacf r`}xrimxifl i} dl è~irimdc edxx`r, Ia xk`xrdh` odcdlm` i} }`l}ixiq` xf efqè`lx} il xk` `{mkdlb` rdx` +i,`,# xk` Edr}kdcc%C`rl`rmflhixifl} dr` `cc }dxi}ai`h)# xk`l xk` ~r`}}pr` xf efq` hfl xf xk` mprr`lx dmmfplx cil`fpch o` cdrb` r`cdxiq` xf xk` mkdlb`} il hòx dlh ` fpch mdxmk p~ ixk xk` }kiax} il M,Kf`q`r# ia xkdx d} xk` md}` il d ac`{ioc` +r`dc) `{mkdlb` rdx` frch# ` fpch dcef}xm`rxdilcy lfx kdq` kdh d mprr`lx dmmfplx fpx fa odcdlm` il xk` air}x ~cdm`: xk` xrdh` hàimixfpch dcr`dhy kdq` ie~rfq`h ixk d h`~r`midxilb `{mkdlb` rdx`# xdgilb p} xf dc`bixiedx` ~frxafcif +l`x hòx) `tpicioripeplc`}} xk` md~ixdc mflxrfc kdh o``l ~cdm`h

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