Global equities 2020 & beyond€¦ · Large Growth category as of 31 May 2019 ... stocks they think will outperform in the short term, and selling stocks that they think will under

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Global equities 2020 & beyondA world of opportunity for growth and value investors.

SYDNEY – FEBRUARY 11

MELBOURNE – FEBRUARY 12

BRISBANE – FEBRUARY 13

PERTH – FEBRUARY 25

ADELAIDE – FEBRUARY 26

2 3

Across the world there Across the world there are now more than are now more than 600,000 publicly 600,000 publicly traded companies. traded companies.

From New York to the From New York to the Nordics, opportunities Nordics, opportunities are abundant. But so are abundant. But so are threats. are threats.

How can investors gain How can investors gain an edge? an edge?

Across the world there are now more than 600,000 publicly traded companies.

From New York to the Nordics, opportunities are abundant.

But so are threats.

How can investors gain an edge?

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• Antipodes Global Fund (also available in NZ

PIE format)

• Antipodes Global – Long (also available in NZ

PIE format)

• Antipodes Asia Fund

• Antipodes Global Investment Company

(ASX: APL)

• Antipodes Global Shares (Quoted

Managed Fund) (ASX: AGX1)

Opportunity set

Why invest with Antipodes?

Protect your portfolio

during volatile markets2

Highly differentiated

global shares portfolio1

Attractive long-term excess

return opportunities

Ratings & Awards

Fund Manager of the Year

International Equities (Global)

Global Equities (Broad Cap)

As at 12/03/2019 As at 04/03/2019

Antipodes Global Fund

Antipodes Asia FundAntipodes Global Fund - Long

Jacob Mitchell CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER

Alison Savas CLIENT PORTFOLIO MANAGER

1. High conviction portfolio, strong regional tilts, thematic bets, shorting and active currency management. 2. Variable net exposure to equity markets through the use of shorting.

6 7

APL AGX1

NAMEAntipodes Global Investment

Company Limited

Antipodes Global Shares (Quoted

Managed Fund)

VEHICLE Listed Investment Company (LIC) EQMF (active ETF)

LEGAL

STRUCTURECompany Trust

LISTING DATE 18-Oct-16 7-Nov-18

MANAGEMENT STYLE Active Active

STRATEGY Global equities, long-short Global equities, long only

TAX Taxed at company tax rate of 30% Flow-through for tax purposes

PRICINGLive pricing on the ASX - Can trade

at a premium or discount to NTA

Live pricing on the ASX - Trades at

a tight spread to NAV

HOW TO INVEST Buy on the ASX Buy on the ASX

Listed investment opportunity set Notes:

8 9

But, despite what the headlines might say, we

question the consensus and ask are growth

and inflation really dead? The biggest change

in global markets today is a rise in populism,

not lower interest rates.

By Jacob Mitchell, Antipodes Founder, CIO and Lead Portfolio Manager

Across the world central banks are seemingly committed to monetary stimulus and bonds are telling us that we are living in a low-growth world.

A rise in populism has encompassed global

politics and we don’t think this is going away.

This is an unintended consequence of central bank

policy which has inflated asset prices, rather than

delivering a sustainable recovery in economic

activity.

Think about the real-world implications of this;

inflated asset prices have put the property market

out of reach for many and low rates have reduced

the interest retirees are able to earn on their

savings.

Politicians are taking advantage of this - a rise in

populism also leads to protectionist policies and

greater regulation, both of which feed back into

weaker economic growth. Central banks continue

to respond with more monetary stimulus, which

continues to fail to create sustainable economic

activity.

Here we find ourselves in a negative feedback loop.

Countries will seek to break this by looking inward

to stimulate growth via fiscal policy. Ultimately,

economic reforms, lower levels of regulatory

burden and adaptation to shifts in technology

are required to generate sustainable productiv-

ity growth, but we expect to see a growing call

for fiscal stimulus as the expedient response to a

rise in populism. This is the beginning of a longer-

term trend.

What does this mean for global equities?

First, we must understand which jurisdictions

have the most fiscal stimulus firepower.

As you can see on the fiscal surplus chart on the

following page, China and Europe have the most

dry powder, while the US is running emerging

market-style twin deficits.

The pain being felt in the German industrial heart-

land is leading to political shifts that should not

be underestimated. Power is shifting towards

both greens and nationalists who are making

increased demands.

We have already seen some action. The recent

announcement from the German coalition for a

€50b package to reduce carbon-dioxide emis-

sions targeting transport and heating is a step in

the right direction. At over 1% of GDP this proposal

is significant, and it’s a similar size to the stimu-

lus packages announced in 2009, following the

global fiscal crisis.

Elsewhere in Europe, the famously tight Dutch

government has indicated €3bn (0.4% GDP) in

additional investment and tax cuts for house-

holds to protect the country’s economic growth,

and the potential to create a special investment

fund of up to €50b which will focus on infrastruc-

ture, education and innovation.

The signs point to infrastructure spend with

a ‘green’ tilt and potentially schemes with a

pro-worker stance given the state of the auto

sector, one of the largest employers in Germany.

European stocks such as Siemens (utility scale gas

turbines, renewables and smart grid), Electricite

de France (nuclear and renewable energy),

Continental (key components for electrification

of vehicles) are examples of attractively valued

cyclical companies we believe will benefit from

infrastructure stimulus measures.

Looking to China, we believe the trade war will

accelerate the path of rebalancing the Chinese

economy toward internal growth and a smaller

current account surplus.

Chinese fiscal stimulus will target lower income

demographics. For example, discretionary

consumption stimulus on top of the income

tax and VAT cuts, as well as some infrastructure

spending, which we have already seen to date.

This stimulus will increasingly require funding

by higher wealth, luxury and property taxes and

effectively take the form of income redistribution

from rich to poor.

Businesses such as Alibaba, Yum China and

Ping An Life Insurance are all well positioned for

Chinese policies targeting income stimulus and a

strengthening of the social safety net.

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We see a path towards a cyclical rebound in global

economic activity emerging as trade uncertainty

falls and credit multipliers inflect with rate cuts and

fiscal stimulus gaining traction.

Accordingly, we believe investors can reap hand-

some long term rewards by looking into less

obvious parts of the market and identifying attrac-

tively valued (or even unloved) cyclical stocks,

hiding major structural growth opportunities.

In 2020 and beyond?

Notes:

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Why invest in the Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund?

Trust in an investment process proven over 23 years

Invest in the #1 ranked global equities strategy1

Focused on long-term earnings growth

• Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund

• Hyperion Australian Growth Companies Fund

• Hyperion Small Growth Companies Fund

3 high conviction funds

Tim SamwayEXECUTIVE CHAIR

Awarded to Hyperion Asset Management for Fund Manager of the Year, Domestic Equities – Large Caps Category Winner and Domestic Equities – Small Caps Category Winner, Australia.

Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund

Hyperion Small Growth Companies Fund

Hyperion Australian Growth Companies Fund

1 Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund B ranked the #1 global equities strategy by the Morningstar Australian Institutional Sector Survey across 1,3 and 5-year periods as of 31 May 2019 Source: https://www.hyperion.com.au/wp-content/uploads/Australian_Institutional_Sector_Survey_-_May_2019.pdf

Overall rating out of 78 funds in the Equity World Large Growth category as of 31 May 2019

Overall rating out of 50 funds in the Equity Australia Mid/Small Growth Category as of 31 May 2019

Ratings and Awards

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When it comes to stock choice, at Hyperion, we

seek to identify growth-oriented companies which

will produce predictable medium to long-term

earnings streams, have above-average growth

potential, and high-quality business franchises in a

large and/or growing addressable market.

As for portfolio construction, we rely on a propri-

etary, research-based process, which exploits

non-fundamental short-term price volatility while

keeping a weather eye on long-term fundamen-

tals, and ignoring short-term market noise.

Our performance over time is evidence of the

success of our strategy. Since 1996, we have

achieved annual outperformance, or alpha, of

approximately 4.6% p.a.[1] from our Broad Cap

Composite, and since inception in 2014, our Global

Growth Fund has outperformed by approximately

9.3% p.a.[2]

While much of our outperformance can be

attributed to our ability to successfully identify

quality, structural growth companies, a signifi-

cant portion can also be attributed to our portfolio

construction process.

Conviction investment and the importance of portfolio construction in generating long-term alpha.

Successful equity investors understand that

there are two fundamental, yet intrinsically

linked processes, which must operate in

tandem to achieve long-term outperformance.

The first is stock choice, the process by which

equities are assessed and chosen, and the

second is portfolio construction, the process

by which equities are combined over time.

Hyperion’s portfolio construction process explained

Our investment process is designed to generate

long-term alpha for our clients by systematically

comparing current share prices that are heavily

influenced by short-term, non-fundamental vola-

tility, to relatively stable but structurally growing

long-term intrinsic value estimates.

In order to explain how we do this, it is import-

ant to first explain what we mean by short-term

volatility and long-term alpha. It sounds simple,

but the reality is that many market participants

do not understand the difference between short-

term opportunities and long-term fundamentals,

or that exploiting short-term alpha opportunities

is profoundly different from exploiting long-term

alpha opportunities.

Short-termism is rife in equity markets

Most market participants are obsessed with

short-term alpha and share price-based returns.

To maximise short-term alpha, they try to predict

short-term share price movements by buying

stocks they think will outperform in the short

term, and selling stocks that they think will under-

perform over a similar time period. In essence,

these traders are trying to predict the short-term

direction of share prices, which requires them to

constantly reassess their short-term directional

thesis.

Our view is that this is very difficult to do consis-

tently, because share prices are highly unpredict-

able in the short term. In addition, when investors

have a short-term mindset, they tend to focus

less on the long-term fundamentals of the stock,

and more on news flow and meeting or beating

short-term consensus expectations as the domi-

nant reasons for going long or short a stock.

To add to the problem, most market participants

are trying to do the same thing at the same time.

Many short-term alpha generating processes are

well known, and commonly used by participants

– which makes it a very competitive space to play

in. Short-termism is a very crowded trade and

becoming more so over time.

Focusing on the short term can have unin-tended negative consequences

Investors who do not have a good understanding

of the underlying fundamentals of the compa-

nies they buy and sell, are unlikely to understand

a business’ intrinsic value, and so can be forced

out of the stock, or hastily buy in, at the worst

possible times.

The market is directionally efficient in terms of

news flow in the short-term. That is, if stock-spe-

cific news is negative or positive, then the share

price will generally go down, or up, as a result,

relative to the market. The challenge for inves-

tors in this scenario is that the news flow tends

to be unpredictable at the individual company

level, the industry level and the macro level. In

fact, financial markets and economies are inher-

ently random and unpredictable in the short term

due to the influence of crowd-based behavioural

factors and the general complexity of these

systems. Markets and economies are complex

adaptive systems, heavily influenced by human

sentiment and behaviour and thus, extremely

difficult to consistently predict in the short term.

Unfortunately, investors tend to overweigh the

importance and meaning of recent share price

movements, which are largely random and driven

by non-fundamental market noise over short

time periods. In order to overcome this problem,

we have built multiple risk adjustments into the

process to limit behavioural biases. In addition,

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we use the investment team’s knowledge, under-

standing and collective experience to assess the

long-term fundamental relevance of the negative

price momentum and associated negative news

flow.

The difficult reality is that short sellers have

become very effective at influencing the financial

media as well as the short-term sentiment, regard-

less of the long-term fundamentals of a stock. It

can be very difficult to retain and grow positions

in the face of short seller and media-driven nega-

tive feedback loops and price momentum, if you

don’t understand why you own the stock and

don’t have a strong knowledge-based conviction.

Value investing requires conviction and a long-term focus

Our investment process aims to actively avoid

falling into the trap of short-termism, but instead

to focus maximising long-term returns, long-term

capital preservation and long-term alpha.

We do not attempt to generate short-term alpha

through trading strategies such as momentum,

near-term news flow, feedback loops, short-

ing or short-term macro trends. Our focus is on

long-term business fundamentals and long-term

valuation.

This is not to say that our investment process

does not incorporate short-term share price vola-

tility – it does – but we do not attempt to predict

the direction and/or quantum of future short-

term share price movements to generate alpha.

In other words, our investment process is not

predicated on accurately forecasting short-term

share price movements. Instead, we take advan-

tage of non-fundamental short-term price vola-

tility to maximise long-term alpha for our clients.

Predicting short-term share price direction and

quantum is not key to our ability to generate

long-term alpha.

Our investment process has consistently added

long-term alpha regardless of the direction and

quantum of short-term share price movements.

This is in stark contrast to how most market

participants try to generate alpha – by imple-

menting investment processes that are reliant on

correctly predicting the direction and duration of

short-term share price movements.

Instead of aiming to predict stock price direction,

we take advantage of short-term share price vola-

tility, by using a portfolio construction process

which shifts stock weights up and down as appro-

priate, typically from less than 1% to a maximum

of 13%.

A contrarian portfolio construction system

Hyperion’s portfolio construction system tends

to be contrarian in nature and provides liquidity to

the market. We tend to be buying when individual

share prices are weak and selling when they are

strong. This is the opposite to most short-term

alpha seeking investors who are sucking liquid-

ity out of the market because they are trying to

buy positive momentum stocks and sell negative

momentum stocks.

Our proprietary portfolio construction system

uses both long-term valuations and a collec-

tion of quantitative and qualitative fundamental

risk adjustments. Many of these risk adjustment

factors have been extensively tested, and shown

to add significant value over the long term. They

do however rely heavily on the collective experi-

ence and skills of our investment team, because

their success or failure is a result of the quality and

accuracy of the inputs from the team. Our team

has 80 years collective experience at Hyperion

and 130 years in the industry, and a track record

of performance and accuracy.

Portfolio construction expertise is essential to

long-term success, yet many market partici-

pants underestimate the importance of right-siz-

ing porfolios and how much this contributes to

overall risk-adjusted returns.

Despite what some believe, simply investing in

some of the stocks we hold will not produce the

investment returns that our process produces. An

essential foundation of the process is our ability to

retain positions against the crowd, based on our

knowledge-based conviction. And as short-ter-

mism becomes ever more prevalent, and short

sellers ever more aggressive, conviction, based

on fundamental analysis, has become even more

important.

The Hyperion difference

We have a different mindset from the many

other investment managers, who follow invest-

ment processes which attempt to generate alpha

immediately, by predicting short-term share price

movements. Our investment process benefits

from share price volatility. Our portfolio construc-

tion system is designed to generate long-term

alpha from short-term share price volatility,

without needing to predict the direction of that

short-term price volatility.

We believe this is a significant competitive advantage.

Hyperion’s investment process, including its

proprietary portfolio construction process, has

been successfully implemented by the invest-

ment team for over two decades. Yet even with

decades of experience, it is a challenge to hold

and shift weights to appropriate levels because

this quite often involves going against short-term

news flow and short-term share price move-

ments. However, our in-built proprietary system

and experienced team mean we have the neces-

sary structure, and focus on fundamentals to

consistently benefit from portfolio construction

and avoid the trap of short-termism.

18 19

Notes:

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Get in touch

Ramsin Jajoo— HEAD OF RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

+61 2 8970 7756 [email protected]

Mark Cormack— DIRECTOR, RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

QLD & NSW


Gerald Willeston— ASSOCIATE DIRECTOR, RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

NSW


Andrew Reidy— ASSOCIATE, RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

VIC & TAS


Matthew Dell— DIRECTOR, RETAIL DISTRIBUTION


Ed Reekie— DIRECTOR, RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

NATIONAL


Simon McIlwaine— ASSOCIATE, RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

NSW, WA & SA


Amelia McKinnon— ASSOCIATE | RETAIL DISTRIBUTION,

NSW & ACT


Jolon Knight— BUSINESS DEVELOPMENT MANAGER


Chris Meyer, CFA— DIRECTOR, LISTED INVESTMENTS


David Batty— DIRECTOR, RETAIL DISTRIBUTION

NZ

+64 (0) 21 288 0303 [email protected]

Chloe Tilley— ASSOCIATE, LISTED INVESTMENTS


22 23

Disclaimer

This communication is for general information only and was prepared for multiple distribution. Whilst Pinnacle believe the information contained in this communication is

reliable, no warranty is given as to its accuracy, reliability or completeness and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the relevant laws, Pinnacle disclaim all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information.The information is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. The information in this communication has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Any persons relying on this information should obtain professional advice before doing so. The issuer is not licensed to provide financial product advice. Please consult your financial adviser before making a decision. Any opinions and forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Pinnacle and its representatives on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections contained in this presentation are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. The information is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment.Unauthorised use, copying, distribution, replication, posting, transmitting, publication, display, or reproduction in whole or in part of the information contained in this communication is prohibited without obtaining prior written permission from Pinnacle. Pinnacle and its associates may have interests in financial products and may receive fees from companies referred to during this communication.

Pinnacle Fund Services Limited (ABN 29 082 494 362, AFSL 238371) is the product issuer of the Antipodes Global Fund

Long (ARSN 118 075 764); Antipodes Global Fund (ARSN 087 719 515); Antipodes Asia Fund (ARSN 096 451 393); and Antipodes Global Shares (Quoted Managed Fund) (ASX: AGX1), collectively “the Funds”. Please refer to the PDS available at http://antipodespartners.com/funds/. Any potential investor should consider the relevant PDS before deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in a fund. The issuer is not licensed to provide financial product advice. Please consult your financial adviser before making a decision.Antipodes Global Investment Company (ACN 612 843 517) is the issuer of the shares in the Company under the Offer Document. Any offer or sale of securities are made pursuant to definitive documentation, which describes the terms of the offer (‘Offer Document’) available at https://www.antipodespartners.com/antipodes-lic/ Antipodes Partners Limited (‘Antipodes Partners’, ‘Antipodes’) ABN 29 602 042 035, AFSL 481580 is the investment manager of the Funds. Antipodes Partners and Pinnacle Fund Services Limited believe the information contained in this communication is reliable, however its accuracy, reliability or completeness is not guaranteed. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the relevant laws, Antipodes Partners Limited and Pinnacle Fund Services Limited disclaim all liability to any person relying on the information contained in this communication in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information. Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Antipodes Partners and its representatives on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. The information is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. This communication is for general information only. It has been prepared without taking account of any person’s objectives, financial situation or needs. Any persons relying on this information should obtain professional advice before doing so. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. Unauthorised use, copying, distribution, replication, posting, transmitting, publication, display, or reproduction in whole or in part of the information contained in this communication is prohibited without obtaining prior written permission from Antipodes Partners Limited.

Pinnacle Fund Services Limited ABN 29 082 494 362 AFSL 238371 is the product issuer of the Hyperion Australian

Growth Companies Fund (ARSN 089 548 443); Hyperion Global Growth Companies Fund (ARSN 611 084 229); and Hyperion Small Growth Companies Fund (ARSN 089 548 943) , collectively “the Funds”. Hyperion Investment Management Limited (‘Hyperion’) ABN 80 080 135 897, AFSL 238380 is the investment manager of the Funds. Any potential investor should consider the relevant Product Disclosure Statement available at www.hyperion.com.au in deciding whether to acquire, or continue to hold units in a fund. The issuer is not licensed to provide financial product advice. Please consult your financial adviser before making a decision. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

Whilst Hyperion, believes the information contained in this document is based on reliable information, no warranty is given as to its accuracy and persons relying on this information do so at their own risk. Subject to any liability which cannot be excluded under the relevant laws, Hyperion disclaims all liability to any person relying on the information contained on this website in respect of any loss or damage (including consequential loss or damage), however caused, which may be suffered or arise directly or indirectly in respect of such information. Disclosure contained on this website is for general information only. Any opinions or forecasts reflect the judgment and assumptions of Hyperion on the basis of information at the date of publication and may later change without notice. Any projections are estimates only and may not be realised in the future. Information on this website is not intended as a securities recommendation or statement of opinion intended to influence a person or persons in making a decision in relation to investment. Unauthorised use, copying, distribution, replication, posting, transmitting, publication, display, or reproduction in whole or in part of the information contained on the website is prohibited without obtaining prior written permission from Hyperion.

Ratings DisclaimerProfessional Planner | Zenith Fund Award Dis-claimerThe Professional Planner | Zenith Fund Awards

are determined using proprietary methodologies. Fund Awards were is-sued October 6, 2017 and are solely statements of opinion and do not represent recommendations to purchase, hold or sell any securities or make any other investment decisions. Fund Awards are current for 12 months from the date awarded and are subject to change at any time. Fund Awards for previous years are referenced for historical purposes only.

The Zenith Investment Partners (ABN 27 103 132 672, AFS Licence 226872) (“Zenith”) ratings (WHT0057AU rating issued November 2018, IOF0045AU rating issued November

2018, IOF0203AU rating issued November 2018) referred to in this document are limited to “General Advice” (s766B Corporations Act 2001) for Wholesale clients only. This advice has been prepared without taking into account the objectives, financial situation or needs of any individual and is subject to change at any time without prior notice. It is not a specific recommendation to purchase, sell or hold the relevant product(s). Investors should seek independent financial advice before making an investment decision and should consider the appropriateness of this advice in light of their own objectives, financial situation and needs. Investors should obtain a copy of, and consider the PDS or offer document before making any decision and refer to the full Zenith Product Assessment available on the Zenith website. Past performance is not an indication of future performance. Zenith usually charges the product issuer, fund manager or related party to conduct Product Assessments. Full details regarding Zenith’s methodology, ratings definitions and regulatory compliance are available on our Product Assessments and at http://www.zenithpartners.com.au/RegulatoryGuideline

The Lonsec Ratings (assigned as follows: WHT0057AU Antipodes Global Fund - Long - March 2019, IOF0045AU Antipodes Global Fund - March 2019, IOF0203AU Antipodes Asia Fund - April

2019) presented in this document are published by Lonsec Research Pty Ltd ABN 11 151 658 561 AFSL 421445. The Ratings are limited to “General Advice” (as defined in the Corporations Act 2001 (Cth)) and based solely on consideration of the investment merits of the financial products. Past performance information is for illustrative purposes only and is not indicative of future performance. They are not a recommendation to purchase, sell or hold Antipodes Partners Limited products, and you should seek independent financial advice before investing in these products. The Ratings are subject to change without notice and Lonsec assumes no obligation to update the relevant documents following publication. Lonsec receives a fee from the Fund Manager for researching the products using comprehensive and objective criteria. For further information regarding Lonsec’s Ratings methodology, please refer to our website at: http://www.lonsecresearch.com.au/research-solutions/our-ratings

© 2019 Morningstar, Inc. All rights reserved. Neither Morningstar, its affiliates, nor the content providers guarantee

the data or content contained herein to be accurate, complete or timely nor will they have any liability for its use or distribution. Any general advice or ‘class service’ have been prepared by Morningstar Australasia Pty Ltd (ABN: 95 090 665 544, AFSL: 240892) and/or Morningstar Research Ltd, subsidiaries of Morningstar, Inc, without reference to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Refer to our Financial Services Guide (FSG) for more information at www.morningstar.com.au/s/fsg.pdf. You should consider the advice in light of these matters and if applicable, the relevant Product Disclosure Statement before making any decision to invest. Our publications, ratings and products should be viewed as an additional investment resource, not as your sole source of information. Past performance does not necessarily indicate a financial product’s future performance. To obtain advice tailored to your situation, contact a professional financial adviser. The Morningstar Rating is an assessment of a fund’s past performance – based on both return and risk – which shows how similar investments compare with their competitors. A high rating alone is insufficient basis for an investment decision.

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Documents

Global equities 2020 & beyond€¦ · Large Growth category as of 31 May 2019 ... stocks they think will outperform in the short term, and selling stocks that they think will under