Global environmental Global environmental change and the Caribbeanchange and the Caribbean

GECAFS Scenario Development GECAFS Scenario Development Workshop, Kingston, JamaicaWorkshop, Kingston, Jamaica11stst September 2005 September 2005

Professor Anthony ClaytonProfessor Anthony ClaytonSir Arthur Lewis InstituteSir Arthur Lewis InstituteUniversity of the West IndiesUniversity of the West Indies

Millennium Development Goals

Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies Target 9: Integrate the principles of sustainable development into country policies and programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resourcesand programmes and reverse the loss of environmental resources

IndicatorsIndicators• Proportion of land covered by forestProportion of land covered by forest• Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface areaRatio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to surface area• Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP (at PPP)Energy use (kg oil equivalent) per $1 GDP (at PPP)• Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption of CFCs (ODP tons)Carbon dioxide emissions (per capita) and consumption of CFCs (ODP tons)• Proportion of population using solid fuelsProportion of population using solid fuelsTarget 10: Halve, by 2015, the proportion without sustainable access to safe Target 10: Halve, by 2015, the proportion without sustainable access to safe

drinking water and basic sanitationdrinking water and basic sanitationIndicatorsIndicators• Proportion of urban & rural population with access to an improved water Proportion of urban & rural population with access to an improved water

sourcesource• Proportion of urban & rural population with access to improved sanitationProportion of urban & rural population with access to improved sanitation

Deforestation

• The countries and territories of the region are The countries and territories of the region are deforesting at an average rate of -1.7% per annum. No deforesting at an average rate of -1.7% per annum. No country shows a positive trend, but some appear to country shows a positive trend, but some appear to have stabilized, with no net losses over 1990-95.have stabilized, with no net losses over 1990-95.

• Thus the problem is concentrated in a few countries Thus the problem is concentrated in a few countries with high rates of deforestation, in particular Jamaica, with high rates of deforestation, in particular Jamaica, St Lucia and Haiti (CARICOM) and the British Virgin St Lucia and Haiti (CARICOM) and the British Virgin Islands (non-CARICOM). These countries are not Islands (non-CARICOM). These countries are not currently on track to meet the relevant MDG target. currently on track to meet the relevant MDG target.

Causes

Poor agricultural practices, uncontrolled development, charcoal burning…Poor agricultural practices, uncontrolled development, charcoal burning…

Protection of biodiversity

Caribbean = 228,680kmCaribbean = 228,680km²², of which 108,424km, of which 108,424km²² (47.4%) (47.4%) is protected.is protected.

This varies from 67.2% (Martinique) to 0% (Aruba).This varies from 67.2% (Martinique) to 0% (Aruba).

Some countries have designated substantial areas, but in Some countries have designated substantial areas, but in some cases there is little effective enforcement or some cases there is little effective enforcement or policing and insufficient financial resources to actually policing and insufficient financial resources to actually protect the designated areas or otherwise change the protect the designated areas or otherwise change the way in which people behave and utilize resources in way in which people behave and utilize resources in environmentally sensitive zones. environmentally sensitive zones.

Water and sanitation

RegionsRegions % with sanitation% with sanitation % with water% with water

Caribbean average (15)Caribbean average (15) 8686 9090

LAC averageLAC average 7777 8686

World averageWorld average 6161 8282

Developing averageDeveloping average 5151 7878

Source: Human Development Index 2003 modified by C. Hayle, 2004

IADB (2004): the Caribbean island nations (not including Haiti) already had 92% access to adequate water supplies and 96% had sanitation in 1990. Just 989,000 people still need drinking water access; the total investment needed is US$193m. Jamaica has the greatest investment requirement (US$89m). Some 955,000 still require sanitation; this will require US$254m. Jamaica again has the greatest investment requirement (US$123m).

Water and sanitation: conclusions

Most island nations in the region are close to Most island nations in the region are close to universal supply of water and sanitation.universal supply of water and sanitation.

Haiti – predictably – has the greatest deficit, Haiti – predictably – has the greatest deficit, with only a quarter of the population with with only a quarter of the population with proper sanitation, and currently appears proper sanitation, and currently appears unlikely to meet the MDG, although this may unlikely to meet the MDG, although this may change as a result of new financial assistance change as a result of new financial assistance packages.packages.

Relevance to the Caribbean (?)

There is little overlap between the MDGs and the actual There is little overlap between the MDGs and the actual environmental problems of the Caribbean.environmental problems of the Caribbean.

The most pressing environmental problems of the Caribbean are The most pressing environmental problems of the Caribbean are probably those related to global climate change and to the probably those related to global climate change and to the (partially linked) deterioration in the state of the coral reefs.(partially linked) deterioration in the state of the coral reefs.

Other issues, such as the management of watersheds and supplies, Other issues, such as the management of watersheds and supplies, solid and liquid waste disposal, deforestation, over-fishing, solid and liquid waste disposal, deforestation, over-fishing, atmospheric pollution (with particular regard to particulate atmospheric pollution (with particular regard to particulate content), inefficient use of energy and other resources, the content), inefficient use of energy and other resources, the conservation of biodiversity (with particular regard to endemic conservation of biodiversity (with particular regard to endemic species) and so on are also important, but the first two issues are species) and so on are also important, but the first two issues are likely to have the most serious impact on the region.likely to have the most serious impact on the region.

Dying reefs

Reefs have multiple economic functions; they Reefs have multiple economic functions; they maintain fisheries, protect the coast from storm maintain fisheries, protect the coast from storm surge, support tourism etc.surge, support tourism etc.

A 2003 survey noted that there has been a A 2003 survey noted that there has been a “massive region-wide decline of corals across “massive region-wide decline of corals across the entire Caribbean basin, with the average the entire Caribbean basin, with the average hard coral cover on reefs being reduced by 80%, hard coral cover on reefs being reduced by 80%, from about 50% to 10% cover, in 3 decades.”from about 50% to 10% cover, in 3 decades.”

Healthy reef

Dead reef, carpeted in algae

Causes• Suspected causes include over-fishing, pollution (excess nutrient inflow), Suspected causes include over-fishing, pollution (excess nutrient inflow),

smothering by sediments released by soil erosion and deforestation, sea smothering by sediments released by soil erosion and deforestation, sea temperature rise, hurricanes and disease (esp. the virus that wiped out a temperature rise, hurricanes and disease (esp. the virus that wiped out a keystone species in the mid-80s, the sea urchin keystone species in the mid-80s, the sea urchin Diadema antillarum).Diadema antillarum).

• It is important to note that the first 3 or 4 factors listed above are It is important to note that the first 3 or 4 factors listed above are anthropogenic, but the last two are natural. Storm damage occurs frequently in anthropogenic, but the last two are natural. Storm damage occurs frequently in the Caribbean, and is part of the natural dynamic processes of coral reef the Caribbean, and is part of the natural dynamic processes of coral reef ecology. The poor condition of the reefs today highlights the probable ecology. The poor condition of the reefs today highlights the probable importance of multiple ‘hits’; coral reefs are probably capable of dealing with importance of multiple ‘hits’; coral reefs are probably capable of dealing with one or two of these factors at a time, but not with all of them simultaneously.one or two of these factors at a time, but not with all of them simultaneously.

• The most important remedial action is to control over-fishing, but some The most important remedial action is to control over-fishing, but some governments have been reluctant to implement controls.governments have been reluctant to implement controls.

Climate change

The majority of the environmental problems The majority of the environmental problems in the Caribbean can be controlled via in the Caribbean can be controlled via domesticdomestic policy. policy.

The main exception is also the issue of The main exception is also the issue of greatest concern; climate change.greatest concern; climate change.

Climate change (IPCC data)

Global mean surface air temperature has increased by between Global mean surface air temperature has increased by between 0.3°C and 0.6°C since the late 19th century. Recent years have 0.3°C and 0.6°C since the late 19th century. Recent years have been among the warmest since 1860.been among the warmest since 1860.

Global sea level has risen by between 10 and 25 cm over the past Global sea level has risen by between 10 and 25 cm over the past 100 years; much of this rise may be related to the increase in 100 years; much of this rise may be related to the increase in global mean temperature. global mean temperature.

The current low, mid and high projections are for further rises in The current low, mid and high projections are for further rises in global mean surface air temperature (relative to 1990) of 1global mean surface air temperature (relative to 1990) of 1ºCºC, 2, 2ºC ºC or 3.5or 3.5ºCºC by 2100. by 2100.

The current low, mid and high projections for average sea level The current low, mid and high projections for average sea level rise (as a result of thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of rise (as a result of thermal expansion of the oceans and melting of glaciers and ice sheets) are 15cm, 50cm or 95 cm by 2100, plus glaciers and ice sheets) are 15cm, 50cm or 95 cm by 2100, plus increased incidence of severe weather conditions and storm surge.increased incidence of severe weather conditions and storm surge.

The sea was rising before…

Rising sea levels are a natural phenomenon during Rising sea levels are a natural phenomenon during interglacial periods; mean sea level has risen about interglacial periods; mean sea level has risen about 400 feet since the last Ice Age ended 20,000 years 400 feet since the last Ice Age ended 20,000 years ago (Britain was not an island 10,000 years ago). ago (Britain was not an island 10,000 years ago). Over the last 7,500 years the rate has averaged 1/16 Over the last 7,500 years the rate has averaged 1/16 inch per year.inch per year.

Climate change projections have to distinguish the Climate change projections have to distinguish the background rate from any human-caused effect.background rate from any human-caused effect.

Vulnerability

Problems likely to occur where a particular set of social, economic Problems likely to occur where a particular set of social, economic and geographical factors overlap - countries with:and geographical factors overlap - countries with:

A high percentage of infrastructure and main settlements in areas A high percentage of infrastructure and main settlements in areas vulnerable to e.g. sea level rise.vulnerable to e.g. sea level rise.

A narrow economic base, especially if this too is concentrated in A narrow economic base, especially if this too is concentrated in vulnerable areas.vulnerable areas.

A shortage of the skills needed for economic diversification or a A shortage of the skills needed for economic diversification or a move down the value chain.move down the value chain.

..are more likely to be severely impacted by e.g. climate change, ..are more likely to be severely impacted by e.g. climate change, with few compensating effects, and may also have difficulty in with few compensating effects, and may also have difficulty in reducing this vulnerability.reducing this vulnerability.

This combination will include many island states, but also some This combination will include many island states, but also some mainland states e.g. Bangladesh.mainland states e.g. Bangladesh.

Climate change & the Caribbean

• The countries of the Caribbean would be vulnerable to any The countries of the Caribbean would be vulnerable to any significant degree of climate change.significant degree of climate change.

• Much of the key infrastructure - cities and urban developments, Much of the key infrastructure - cities and urban developments, tourism resorts, industrial infrastructure, airports and wharves – tourism resorts, industrial infrastructure, airports and wharves – lies at or near sea level, and would therefore be threatened.lies at or near sea level, and would therefore be threatened.

• The concentration of infrastructure reflects the concentration of The concentration of infrastructure reflects the concentration of economic activity, so that most of the GDP of the Caribbean economic activity, so that most of the GDP of the Caribbean islands is also generated in the coastal zone.islands is also generated in the coastal zone.

• Thus the social and economic viability of some of these island Thus the social and economic viability of some of these island countries might be threatened by significant climate change, countries might be threatened by significant climate change, partly by the associated rise in sea-level, and partly by the partly by the associated rise in sea-level, and partly by the projected increase in the incidence of category 4 and 5 hurricanes.projected increase in the incidence of category 4 and 5 hurricanes.

The impact on Jamaica

Narrow economic base; there are three major Narrow economic base; there are three major sources of f/x: remittances, tourism and bauxite. sources of f/x: remittances, tourism and bauxite.

The travel and tourism sector is the most The travel and tourism sector is the most vulnerable; the infrastructure is concentrated vulnerable; the infrastructure is concentrated into areas exposed to sea level rise and severe into areas exposed to sea level rise and severe weather conditions.weather conditions.

The economic consequences

11.8% of Jamaica’s GDP derives directly from the 11.8% of Jamaica’s GDP derives directly from the industry, 36.0% of GDP derives directly or indirectly industry, 36.0% of GDP derives directly or indirectly from the industry (Caribbean averages 4.5% and 14.8%)from the industry (Caribbean averages 4.5% and 14.8%)

10.7% of Jamaica’s workforce is directly employed and 10.7% of Jamaica’s workforce is directly employed and 31.8% of all jobs are supported by the travel and 31.8% of all jobs are supported by the travel and tourism industry (Caribbean averages 5.2% and 15.5%, tourism industry (Caribbean averages 5.2% and 15.5%, world averages 2.8% and 8.1%).world averages 2.8% and 8.1%).

World rank Country % T&T of total jobs

1 Antigua and Barbuda 95.0

6 Bahamas 69.9

7 Aruba 69.0

9 Barbados 58.3

18 Jamaica 31.8

27 Belize 23.1

31 Dominican Republic 22.2

63 Cuba 11.8

71 Trinidad and Tobago 10.4

138 Puerto Rico 5.8

Five Caribbean nations are in the global top twenty in terms of the % of total Five Caribbean nations are in the global top twenty in terms of the % of total employment related directly or indirectly to tourism; Jamaica is 5employment related directly or indirectly to tourism; Jamaica is 5 thth in this in this group.group.

Increasing reliance

By 2014 14.8% of Jamaica’s GDP will derive directly from the By 2014 14.8% of Jamaica’s GDP will derive directly from the industry (up from 11.8%), and 42.9 of all GDP (up from 36.0%) industry (up from 11.8%), and 42.9 of all GDP (up from 36.0%) will derive directly or indirectly from the industry. Caribbean will derive directly or indirectly from the industry. Caribbean averages 5.2% (up from 4.5%) and 16.5% (up from 14.8%); the averages 5.2% (up from 4.5%) and 16.5% (up from 14.8%); the relative importance of the tourism industry will rise for the region relative importance of the tourism industry will rise for the region as a whole, but to a lesser extent than in Jamaica.as a whole, but to a lesser extent than in Jamaica.

By 2014 13.5% (up from 10.7%) of Jamaica’s workforce will be By 2014 13.5% (up from 10.7%) of Jamaica’s workforce will be directly employed and 38.1% (up from 31.8%) of all jobs directly employed and 38.1% (up from 31.8%) of all jobs supported by tourism. Caribbean averages of 5.9% (up from 5.2%) supported by tourism. Caribbean averages of 5.9% (up from 5.2%) and 17.1% (up from 15.5%); Jamaica is expected to continue to and 17.1% (up from 15.5%); Jamaica is expected to continue to move further above the regional averages. Projected world move further above the regional averages. Projected world averages for 2014 of 2.9% and 8.6% are expected to be little-averages for 2014 of 2.9% and 8.6% are expected to be little-changed from 2004.changed from 2004.

Exposed infrastructure

IPCC projects rises of 15cm, 50cm or 95 cm by 2100, IPCC projects rises of 15cm, 50cm or 95 cm by 2100, plus increased incidence of severe weather conditions plus increased incidence of severe weather conditions and storm surge.and storm surge.

There are 45 major airports in the Caribbean. Of these, There are 45 major airports in the Caribbean. Of these, 23 have runways <20 feet above sea level.23 have runways <20 feet above sea level.

Jamaica has two international airports; Sangster Jamaica has two international airports; Sangster International and NMI. The runway elevation at SI is International and NMI. The runway elevation at SI is 1.2m, NMI is 3.0m.1.2m, NMI is 3.0m.

Many of the hotels and leisure facilities are on or near Many of the hotels and leisure facilities are on or near beaches, therefore low-lying. beaches, therefore low-lying.

Conclusion: Jamaica’s most important industry is vulnerableConclusion: Jamaica’s most important industry is vulnerable

Kyoto: has the response been adequate?

The Kyoto protocol on climate change came into effect on 16th The Kyoto protocol on climate change came into effect on 16th February 2005; it commits 35 industrial nations to reduce their February 2005; it commits 35 industrial nations to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions by 4.8% from 1990 levels by 2012, when greenhouse gas emissions by 4.8% from 1990 levels by 2012, when the treaty expires.the treaty expires.

The US, the largest source of carbon emissions, has not ratified the The US, the largest source of carbon emissions, has not ratified the protocol, partly because it imposes no limits on the gases produced protocol, partly because it imposes no limits on the gases produced by developing countries.by developing countries.

China, which now emits almost as much carbon as the 25 members of China, which now emits almost as much carbon as the 25 members of the EU combined, and will shortly overtake them to become the the EU combined, and will shortly overtake them to become the world’s second largest source of carbon emissions, is exempt.world’s second largest source of carbon emissions, is exempt.

As a result of these non-ratifications and exemptions, UN projections As a result of these non-ratifications and exemptions, UN projections indicate that the treaty will reduce the currently projected rise in indicate that the treaty will reduce the currently projected rise in average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8°C by 2100 by just 0.1%.average surface temperature of 1.4 to 5.8°C by 2100 by just 0.1%.

USA & China – the major carbon sources

So what can we do?

Adaptation planning; reduce risk exposure.Adaptation planning; reduce risk exposure. Relocate key infrastructure (airports, roads, Relocate key infrastructure (airports, roads,

settlements), using zoning and planning controls.settlements), using zoning and planning controls. Allow for e.g. beach erosion; enforce set-backs.Allow for e.g. beach erosion; enforce set-backs. Enforce building standards.Enforce building standards. Soft engineering, flood plains as buffer zones, managed Soft engineering, flood plains as buffer zones, managed

retreat.retreat. Improve rapid response mechanisms, civil defence; Improve rapid response mechanisms, civil defence;

evacuation routes and shelters.evacuation routes and shelters.

Is it worth doing?

The average cost of each major flood event in Jamaica The average cost of each major flood event in Jamaica over the last twenty years is equivalent to > 1% of the over the last twenty years is equivalent to > 1% of the 2002 budget.2002 budget.

Thanks to Pat McCalla of NEPA for this slide!

Thank you !