UQ Energy Express Seminar

Global Energy System Transition:

Real on the ground effects - a case history of Socio-

Economic Impacts in the Queensland CSG Areas

Prof. Andrew Garnett

UQ Energy Initiative

Director Centre for Coal Seam Gas

Director UQ CCS RD&D Program

UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas

Industry & UQ funded (80% : 20%) • Industry: QGC, Santos, Arrow, APLNG

Operated under UQ research policies & procedures • $25 million, 5 yrs, ~40 projects,

• >55 senior researchers, >15 schools, > 30 RHDs..

Four CSG Chair Portfolios • Geoscience

• Water

• Petroleum Engineering

• Social Performance

Context

“A desk is a dangerous place from which to view the world”

- John Le Carre

Recap: WEO 2015 – Energy & GHGs

Source: WEO 2015: World natural gas demand by scenario

WEO 2015 – Role of Gas (Projects)

QLD LNG name plate 25.3 Mtpa ~ 35 bcm/yr Source: WEO 2015: World natural gas demand by scenario

Global gas demand grows in all scenarios.

“Emerging economies lead the push for gas ...” [NPS] Unconventional gas (onshore) to rise to 30% of total gas by 2040.

LNG rises to 50% of inter-regional traded gas

~Post COP21 INDCs

6

Funder Researchers

UQ Energy Express Seminar 9 September 2016

https://www.universitiesaustralia.edu.au/australias-universities/university-profiles/The-University-of-Queensland#.VFXW9yi0bP0 - 2/11/14

Energy System Transition: Real on-the-

ground effects –

a case history of Socio-Economic Impacts

in the Queensland CSG Areas

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Disclaimer

The information, opinions and views

expressed in this presentation do not

necessarily represent those of the

University of Queensland, the UQ

Centre for Coal Seam Gas or its

constituent members or associated

companies.

This presentation has not been

independently peer reviewed and is not

intended for wider publication.

Disclosure

The UQ Centre for Coal Seam Gas is

currently funded by the University of

Queensland 22% ($5.0 million) and the

Industry members 78% ($17.5 million)

over 5 years. An additional $3.0 million is

provided by industry members for

research infrastructure costs.

The Centre conducts research across

Water, Geoscience, Petroleum

Engineering and Social Performance

themes.

For more information about the Centre’s

activities and governance see…

http://www.ccsg.uq.edu.au

Disclaimer & Disclosure

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Study area

Surat Basin, Queensland: • Dalby 18,000 popul’n. • Chinchilla 7,700 • Miles/Wandoan 4,000 • Tara 4,000 • Roma 14,000 • Wallumbilla 6,000 • Toowoomba 160,000

http://mapsof.net/uploads/static-maps/australia_states_rs01.gif - 15/9/15

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Measure, understand, & respond

http://www.beefcentral.com/u/lib/cms/surat-cma-map.jpg - 5/4/14 http://cjw.id.au/WordPress/wp-content/csg22.jpg - 5/4/14

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http://www.abc.net.au/site-archive/rural/content/2011/s3322318.htm

http://www.miningaustralia.com.au/News/3000-bed-mining-camp-gets-the-rubber-stamp

http://www.rmaeng.com.au/projects/retail-commercial

http://www.water-technology.net/projects/-qgc-kenya-water-treatment-plant-queensland/

http://www.colelawson.com.au

What community sees

http://www.probuildcivil.com.au/our-expertise/roadworks evacuationgrounds.blogspot.com

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Queensland DSDIP & QGSO - ‘granularity’

Political base

Experience base

Different histories, identities

Resentment of local govt amalgamation …

Distribution & migration of impacts & benefits

Town-level statistics & Local voices

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/7/7d/ChinchillaFootpath.JPG/270px-ChinchillaFootpath.JPG - 23/10/14

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The challenge …

http://www.enchantedfairies.com.au/uploads/4/0/5/3/40530249/1414485395.png - 7/9/16

http://images.clipartpanda.com/civil-engineer-clipart-engineer-clipart-royalty -free-clip-art-vector-logo-of-a-happy-construction-engineer-reading-blueprints

-in-a-city-circle-by-patrimonio-6510.jpg - 7/9/16

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• Perceptions of change v Evidence: ‘agreed indicators’

• ‘Complex Adaptive Systems’ / ‘wicked problems’

Complexity + simplification

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Cumulative Social & Economic effects

Expectation of Benefits

Social ties & trust ‘Social Capital’

Winners & losers

New faces

Transience

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5% - 15% per year

Boom town ‘Problem Triangle’

Gilmore (1975)

Trajectory drivers …

http://clearlogic.ca/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/Problem-Triangle.png - accessed 12/10/13

‘threshold’

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UQ Indicator Findings -> ‘Cumulative Effects’

*Infographics still need tweaking

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E.g. - Housing

Kogan Creek Power Station Queensland

average

CSG projects’ “construction phase”

Population (centre @ 2011)

Dalby = 17,000 Chinchilla = 7,200

Miles = 1,900 Wandoan = 665

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Myths = Experience + Information + Hearsay

+ Inference + Invention + …

Impacts: Proximate cause v Ultimate cause

De-Mythologising

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“Small shops have closed as customers moved out,

e.g., lower SES residents avoiding high rents.”

Shop owner aiming to sell for years, and price was right.

Shop owner unable to retain staff with wages offered.

Example 1 - Myth

http://www.noagentproperty.com.au/private-real-estate/search/sell/QLD/for_sale/all_property/9385/location-Darling_Downs-Chinchilla-Chinchilla - accessed 12/4/15

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Example 1 – Data on Businesses

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“Our children could stay in town and get jobs.”

Jobs during boom + back to farm –> succession altered

Backpackers, 457 visa holders

Rents subsidised

Temporary

Example – 2: Myth

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Example – 2: Data on employment

Skills shortage

GFC

Population (centre @ 2011)

Dalby = 17,000 Chinchilla = 7,200

Miles = 1,900 Wandoan = 665

Qld average

Drought Flood Drought

CSG

Resources boom

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Example 2: Data on recent unemployment

Qld

Tara

Chinchilla

Dalby

CSG construction

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Example 2: Data on Wage Earners

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Example 3: Aspiration

“We want more young families!”

Young people returned, then some left, others …

Rents spiked then crashed – overbuilding

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Example 3 – Housing costs

Investor mortgage defaults

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Example 3: Families data 2013-2015

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

Sep

-13

Oct

-13

No

v-1

3

De

c-1

3

Jan

-14

Feb

-14

Mar

-14

Ap

r-1

4

May

-14

Jun

-14

Jul-

14

Au

g-1

4

Sep

-14

Oct

-14

No

v-1

4

De

c-1

4

Jan

-15

Feb

-15

Mar

-15

Ap

r-1

5

May

-15

Jun

-15

Jul-

15

Au

g-1

5

Sep

-15

Australian government payments Chinchilla 4413

Health Care card Low income card Newstart Single parent payment

CSG construction boom ends

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Example 3: Families -> School enrolments*

Year

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

HS

495

482

484

467

471

486

529

613

SS

501

455

460

493

502

523

544

523

*myschool.edu.au

Chinchilla

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Example 3: Drug offences

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“Show me the money”

Chinchilla

Kingaroy

2 hrs

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Cumulative Social & Economic effects

Expectation of Benefits

Social ties & trust ‘Social Capital’

Winners & losers

New faces

Transience

Transparency

Relationship building

Re-orientation

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https://boomtown-indicators.org

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1. Resource development -> ‘Catalyst for Change’

2. Systems analysis:

Local data & Voices + Trends over time

Take-away messages

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Thanks

Team • Kathy Witt

• Jo-Anne Everingham

• Sheryllee Johnson • Sarah Worthing, Kylie Bourne, Vikki Uhlmann, Kylie May, Bec Colvin, Angus Veitch, …

Supporters QGC + Santos + Arrow Energy + APLNG

Queensland government

Contact w.rifkin@uq.edu.au

https://boomtown-indicators.org

https://boomtown-toolkit.org