Global Energy Production & Use ‘101’

Jean-Sébastien RiouxThe School of Public Policy

SPP-HEI Summer School on the Geopolitics of Energy & Natural ResourcesCalgary, AB May 15-20, 2017

Presentation highlights1. Global demand for all forms of energy will rise by another 25%

between 2017 and 2040, due to population growth and human development

2. All of this growth in demand for energy will come from non-OECD nations, particularly the expanding economies in the Asia-Pacific region:– expansion of the middle class, particularly in China and India;– greater access to modern energy in homes; – rising industrial demand; and – significant increases in personal and commercial transportation needs.

3. Hydrocarbon-based energy will still account for over 75% of energy use by 2040

4. Canada can be a part of this future energy mix5. Co2 emissions expected to peak in 2030, then decrease

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What is Energy?

• Power derived from the utilization of physical or chemical resources, especially to provide light and heat or to work machines, or to transform something into another thing

• Sources:– Hydrocarbons (gas, oil, coal)– Renewables (solar, wind, hydro, tidal, biomass)– Nuclear– Animals – labor or dung– Wood– Chemical reactions– Etc.

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Energy is the ability to:

• Create or change motion (push, pull, change direction)

• Lift anything

• Change temperature (heat something up, cool it off, keep it at a different temperature than surroundings)

• Change shape (bend objects, form particular shapes)

• Make sound, light & electricity

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Measures of energy• Basic unit is the joule – a very small unit of measurement. Burning one

wooden match = 1,055 joules = 1 BTU• One gigajoule is one billion joules. The amount of energy consumed

each year in a typical Canadian home is equivalent to 120 gigajoules –120 billion joules

• Other representations of the amount of energy represented by one gigajoule:

– Approximately 30 litres of gasoline– 39 litres of propane– 278 kilowatt-hours of electricity– 45.5 kilograms of coal. – Note: 1 calorie from a muffin = 4,187 joules

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Source: Alberta Energy, http://www.energy.alberta.ca/about_us/1132.asp

World Energy Demand is Increasing

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Energy Use Closely Correlated with Living Standards

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Source: World Bank

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Energy Use Closely Correlated with Living Standards, II

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Source: Rob Ryan, http://hamiltonianfunction.blogspot.ca/2009/11/energy-use-and-standard-of-living.html

What does energy use in Canada look like?

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Energy use in much of the rest of the world

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Demand for all forms of energy will rise by another 25% between 2017 and 2040

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Source: ExxonMobil (2017) Energy Outlook 2040

Demand for all forms of energy will rise by another 25% between 2017 and 2040 primarily in non-OECD countries:

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Source: ExxonMobil (2017) Energy Outlook 2040

OECD = wealthy countries

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OECD = organization of economic cooperation and development

OECD vs non-OECD Energy Use

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Source: World Bank

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Source: World Bank

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The demand for energy will largely be driven by urbanization and resulting electrification in developing countries…

Source: ExxonMobil (2017) Energy Outlook 2040

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…as well as for the growth in demand for hydrocarbon-basedtransportation fuel to support economic growth, primarily in Asia

Source: ExxonMobil (2017) Energy Outlook 2040

Hydrocarbons will still represent over 75% of energy demand in 2040

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Supply of energy between 2017 and 2040 will meet the demand

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ExxonMobil (2017) Outlook for Energy 2040, http://cdn.exxonmobil.com/~/media/global/files/outlook-for-energy/2017/2017-outlook-for-energy.pdf

Quiz!1. What percent of electricity in Canada is generated by renewable

energy (hydro, wind, solar) v. other, non-renewable sources?

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Source: Natural Resources Canada: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/publications/statistics-facts/1239

Another quiz!

2. What percentage of ALL energy in Canada is produced by renewablesources (hydro, wind, solar, biomass) v. hydrocarbons (oil, gas, coal)?

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Fossil fuels: 87%

Renewable Energy

sources: 11%

Nuclear: 2%

Source: http://www.nrcan.gc.ca/publications/statistics-facts/1239

Where is Canada on the global energy production stage?

• Third largest producer of hydro-electricity in the world

• Fourth largest producer of natural gas in the world

• Fifth largest producer of crude oil in the world– 3rd largest proven oil reserves on Earth – 174+ billion barrels recoverable

– Fun statistic: if Canada produced 4 million barrels or oil per day, every day, we have sufficient reserves to sustain that for 119 years!

• About 22% of global petroleum reserves are accessible to global investors; Canada alone represents about 55% of oil reserves accessible to private capital!

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*Source: US Energy Information Agency (http://www.eia.gov/countries/index.cfm?view=production)

Energy Use (2015)

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Source: World Bank

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Source: World Bank

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Questions?

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