www.le.ac.uk  

Global Energy Dilemmas:

A Geographical Perspective

Professor Mike Bradshaw

Geographical Association Annual Conference and Exhibition

http://www2.le.ac.uk/departments/geography/people/mjb41

Subject update A2 Level: population and resources, globalization, development and inequalities, energy security, development and globalization, sustainable energy. AS Level: the energy issue, globalization and population migration, population change, energy issues, population change. GCSE: globalization, development, population, climate change, energy, environment.

Plan 1.  Introduction 2.  (Re) Defining Energy Security 3.  The ‘Kaya Identity’: Putting it all together 4.  The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus 5.  Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge

Introduction: Global Energy Dilemmas

‘It is no exaggeration to claim that the future of human prosperity depends on how successfully we tackle two central energy challenges facing us today: securing the supply of reliable and affordable energy; and effecting a rapid transformation to a low-carbon, efficient and environmentally benign system of energy supply.’

International Energy Agency 2008

“Without energy there is no economy. Without climate there is no environment. Without economy and environment there is no material wealth, no civil society, no personal or national security. And the problem is that we have been getting the energy our economy needs in ways that are wrecking the climate that our environment needs.” John P. Holdren (Science Advisor to President Barrack Obama)

Energy Security

Climate Change

Globalization

The Global Energy Dilemma

ENERGY ENVIRONMENT

ECONOMY

Can we have secure and affordable energy services that are environmentally benign?

2. (Re) Defining Energy Security

“…the uninterrupted physical availability at a price which is affordable, while respecting environment concerns”

IEA 2011 “…the uninterrupted physical availability of energy products and services on the market, at a price which is affordable for all consumers (private and industrial), while contributing to the EU’s wider social and climate goals”

EU 2011  

 

 

 

The three ‘E’s: Energy, Economy and Environment

0.0  

100.0  

200.0  

300.0  

400.0  

500.0  

600.0  

1990   2000   2008   2015   2020   2025   2030   2035  

Qua

drillion  BT

Us  

OECD

A Global Shift in Energy Demand is underway

Source: EIA International Energy Outlook 2011

Non-OECD demand will account for 93% of the projected increase in energy demand to 2035 (IEA 2010) Non-OECD

Trends in Global Oil Production 1965-2010

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

0  

200  

400  

600  

800  

1000  

1200  

1400  

1600  

1800  

1965  1967  1969  1971  1973  1975  1977  1979  1981  1983  1985  1987  1989  1991  1993  1995  1997  1999  2001  2003  2005  2007  2009  

Million  To

ns  

                                 OPEC                                    Non-‐OPEC  (-‐FSU)                                    Former  Soviet  Union  

Non-OPEC

FSU

OPEC

Who has the oil?

Who consumes the oil?(thousands of barrels per day)

Each county’s size is proportional to the amount of oil it contains (oil reserves); Source: BP Statistical Review Year End 2004 & Energy Information Administration

6,000+3,000-5,9992,000-2,9991,000-1,9990-999

The United States consumes morethan 20,000,000 barrels of oil everyday but has less than 2 percent ofthe world’s remaining oil.

The Middle East controls more than60 percent of the world’s remaining oil.

Canada16 bbs

United States21 bbs

Mexico

Colombia

Venezuela77 bbs

Nigeria35 bbs

Ecuador

Brazil

Algeria

Angola

Libya39 bbs

Egypt

Sudan

Saudi Arabia262 billion barrels (bbs)

Kuwait99 bbs

Qatar15 bbs

United Arab Emirates97 bbs

Iraq115 bbs

Iran132 bbs

Kazakhstan39 bbs

Russia72 bbs

NorwayAzerbaijan

China17 bbs

India

Vietnam

Malaysia

Who has the oil?

OPEC,  77.2  

6.8  

6.8   9.2  

OPEC   Non-‐OPEC   OECD   FSU  

Share of Global Proven Oil Reserves in 2009

Source: BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

Country size is relative to share of global oil reserves in 2004.

Transition from West to East

Source: The Economist 2011

Plan 1.  Introduction 2.  (Re) Defining Energy Security 3.  The ‘Kaya Identity’: Putting it all together 4.  The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus 5.  Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge

3.The ‘Kaya Identity’: Putting it all together (Named after the Japanese energy economist Yoichi Kaya)

CO2 = Carbon dioxide emissions E = Energy consumption GDP = Gross Domestic Product Pop = Population

Total CO2 emissions for energy

= (CO2/E) Carbon

Intensity

xE/GDP Energy

Intensity

GDP/Pop

GDP per Capita

x x Pop Population

Fuel Mix Energy Intensity Activity

Primary energy consumption per capita

BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2011

Worldwide, nearly 2.4 billion people still use traditional biomass fuels for cooking and nearly 1.6 billion people do not have access to electricity.

Sustainable Energy for all, by 2030: •  Ensuring universal access to modern energy services; •  Doubling the rate of improvement in energy efficiency; and, •  Doubling the share of renewable energy in the global energy

mix.

Energy Consumption versus GDP: 2008

Energy Ratios & Economic Development CHAPTER 5 RESOURCES, ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT    135

the growth in global energy demand and sustaining energy prices. With that has come increased CO 2 emissions, making the energy needs of these emerging economies a major obstacle in global climate change negotiations. Meanwhile, as noted earlier, a much big-ger question mark hangs over the developing world. Is it inevitable that it will have to industrialise to im-prove living standards? If so, then access to energy resources and/or energy-saving and low-carbon technologies will have to be a central component of the development agenda in the twenty-first century. Furthermore, as we have seen in this chapter, many of those same countries are also likely to be the major suppliers of oil and gas and other minerals and there is plenty of evidence to suggest that such resource-based development often fails to provide a sustainable basis for improving living standards (see Case study  5.3 ) and can generate conflict and instability. The first decade of the twenty-first century suggests that the global shift in economic growth and energy demand will generate a whole series of new challenges to the existing world order.

matures so the energy ratio declines due to increased efficiency, increased energy costs, or the actual decline in the level of economic activity. This stage is typified by the developed world during the 1970s. Eventually, the economy moves into a post-industrial phase and the ratio falls below one. If the model seems very fa-miliar, it is much like that for demographic transition (see Chapter 4 ) because it describes the evolution of the energy economy as it actually occurred in western Europe and the United States.

What evidence is there that the rest of the world will inevitably pass through the same stages? It could justifiably be argued that the newly industrialised countries (NICs) of Asia have followed this pattern of industrialisation; however, the time taken has been compressed as the NICs have tried to diversify their economies and promote service sector growth with-out the advantage of substantial indigenous energy resources, a fact that has made them vulnerable to the effects of energy price volatility. At present it is the rap-idly growing energy demands of the emerging econo-mies such as China, India and Brazil that is driving

Energy ratio > 1.0

Energy ratio < 1.0

Energy ratio ! 1.0

Energy ratio < 1.0

Slow growthor reducedenergy use

Pre-industrial Industrial Post-industrial

Low

High

Deve

l op i

ng c

oun t

r ie s

Dev

e l

oped

cou n t r i

e s

Development over time

Ene

rgy

use

Figure 5.11 Energy ratios and economic development. Source: Environmental Resources , Mather, A.S. and Chapman, K., Pearson Education Limited © Prentice Hall (1995)

M05_DANI0704_05_SE_C05.indd 135M05_DANI0704_05_SE_C05.indd 135 01/18/12 3:55 PM01/18/12 3:55 PM

Energy Outlook 2030 © BP 201112

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020

Historical trends and patterns of development=

toe per thousand $2009 PPPForecast

US

World

China

India

Energy use per unit of GDP

Ener

gy I

nten

sity

Kg of oil equivalent $ 1,000 GDP

Source: BP Energy Outlook 2030, 2012, 12.

Russia   340.0

China 283.3

India 196.2

US 177.4

Japan 126.9

EU 125.0

UK 101.6

Energy use per unit of GDP (toe per thousand $2009 PPP)

Energy Intensity

0.0  

0.1  

0.2  

0.3  

0.4  

0.5  

0.6  

0.7  

0.8  

1990   1992   1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004   2006   2008   2010  

KOE\GDP

$200

5ppp

 

Russia  

China  

United  States  

EU  &  Japan  

2010

The Kaya Identity

CO2 = Total energy related carbon dioxide emissions E = Energy consumption GDP = Gross Domestic Product Pop = Population

CO2 = (CO2/E) Carbon

Intensity

xE/GDP Energy

Intensity

GDP/Pop

GDP per Capita

x x Pop Population

CO2 Emissions Per Capita in 2007 The United States accounts for 20.9% of total CO2 emissions and 4.6% of the World’s population.

In 2009 the level of CO2 emissions per capita was 19.3 metric tons in the US, 9.4 in the UK, 4.7 in China and 0.3 in Bangladesh.

Source: CAIT

Carbon Intensity of Energy Use

2010

0%  

10%  

20%  

30%  

40%  

50%  

60%  

70%  

80%  

90%  

100%  

China   India   World   OECD  

Oil   Natural  Gas   Coal  

Nuclear  Energy   Hydro  electricity   Renewables  

Primary Energy Mix in 2010

-‐10%  

-‐5%  

0%  

5%  

10%  

15%  

20%  

25%  

30%  

1990   1992   1994   1996   1998   2000   2002   2004   2006   2008  

India  

OECD  

Changing Carbon Intensity of Energy Use: 1990=100

China

World

Source: CAIT Source: BP

The number of people living on less than $1.25 a day fell to 1.4 billion in 2005 from 1.8 billion in 1990

In 2010, Japan's economy was worth $5.474 trillion, China's economy was closer to $5.8 trillion in the same year.

A global shift in economic output

2008

Projected Population Change World population reached 7 billion in late 2011 and will surpass 9 billion people by 2050.

‘…slowing population growth could provide 16-29% of the emission reductions suggested to be necessary by 2050 to avoid dangerous climate change.’ ’Neill et al. (2010)

Projected Population Change 2005-2050

Source: Population Reference Bureau, 2005 World Population Data Sheet.

The Kaya Identity

CO2 = Total energy related carbon dioxide emissions E = Energy consumption GDP = Gross Domestic Product Pop = Population

CO2 = (CO2/E) Carbon

Intensity

xE/GDP Energy

Intensity

GDP/Pop

GDP per Capita

x x Pop Population

Total CO2 Emissions from Energy Use in 2008

Source: CAIT

Geographical Concentration of CO2 Emissions from Energy: 2008

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

plus EU (27)

plus Russia,

plus Canada, S Korea, Ukraine

plus Mexico, Australia, Iranplus South Africa, Brazil, Indonesia

Rest of the World

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1 2 3 6 9 12 15 173

USA

Number of Countries

% o

f Glo

bal G

HG

Em

issi

on

The top 15 emi!ers account for 85.01% of total CO2 emission from energy

USA plus China

Japan, India

Two words of caution: ‘embedded carbon’

Arrows depict the largest interregional fluxes of emissions (Mt CO y−1) from net exporting countries (blue) to net

importing countries (red); the threshold for arrows is 200 Mt CO y−1 in Top and Bottom and 100 Mt CO

y−1 in Middle.

Fluxes to and from Europe are aggregated to include all 27 member states of the European Union. The geographical concentration of fossil fuel resources leads to larger fluxes of emissions than those concentrations embodied in goods and services.

The Triple Challenge •  To improve energy intensity, that is to reduce

the amount of energy used per unit of economic output.

•  To reduce the carbon intensity of energy use, that is to reduce the amount of CO2 produced per unit of energy used.

•  To achieve the above in ways that are: equitable, secure and affordable (and that does not threaten economic growth).

The key issues behind the drivers of change

•  Fossil Fuel Energy Scarcity (surviving the end of the hydrocarbon age): ‘Peak Oil,’ ‘End of Easy Oil’, ‘Resource Curse’, Geopolitics of Global Energy Security.

•  Climate Change Policy (reducing carbon emissions): Post-Kyoto Emission Targets, Low Carbon Energy Transition, Geopolitics of Climate Change.

•  Economic Globalization (sustaining growth and promoting poverty reduction): Economic growth, Population Change, Urbanization.

Plan 1.  Introduction 2.  (Re) Defining Energy Security 3.  The ‘Kaya Identity’: Putting it all together 4.  The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus 5.  Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge

Energy Security

Climate Change

Globalization

4. The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus

Energy  Security  

Globaliza3on  

Climate  Change  

?

Energy Rich (Exporting)

Energy Poor (Importing)

Developed Canada, Norway Australia

EU-15, Japan, Korea

Post-Socialist Russia, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan

Baltic States and Central Europe, Ukraine, Moldova, Belarus

Emerging (Russia), (Brazil), Saudi Arabia, UAE

(China), India, South Africa, Indonesia

Developing Nigeria, Sudan, Venezuela, Angola

The rest of the Global South!

The Global Energy Dilemmas Nexus

CO2 Emissions

Energy Use GNI (PPP) Population

1990 2007 1990 2008 1990 2009 1990 2010

Developed 41.7 39.0 48.6 42.2 58.6 47.6 16.1 14.1

Post-Socialist

18.8 9.1 19.7 10.7 8.9 7.6 7.8 5.9

Emerging 23.4 38.3 22.2 34.7 17.8 29.9 50.5 49.9

Developing 7.0 8.8 8.4 11.0 12/0 12.8 25.3 29.7

Kaya Characteristics by Macro Region (Per cent of global total*)

* Columns do not add up to 100 due to unclassified countries in the World Bank data.

Source: World Bank Data

Global Energy Dilemmas: Drivers

High Energy Societies Post-Socialist Economies

• Energy Intensity •  Carbon Intensity •  Economic Growth •  Population Growth

•  Energy Intensity •  Carbon Intensity •  Economic Growth •  Population Growth

Emerging Economies Developing Economies

• Energy Intensity • Carbon Intensity • Economic Growth • Population Growth  

•  Energy Intensity •  Carbon Intensity •  Economic Growth •  Population Growth  

5. Conclusion: The Global Governance Challenge

UNFCCC  

IEF IEA OPEC GECF

IMF, WTO, World Bank G8-G20-G77 OECD ASEAN, EU, NAFTA

?

Thank you

Bibliography  Bradshaw, M.J. (2010) Global Energy Dilemmas: A Geographical Perspective, The Geographical Journal, 176 (4): 275-290. Available free at: http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/j.1475-4959.2010.00375.x/abstract BP (January 2012) BP Energy Outlook 2030. Available at: http://www.bp.com/sectiongenericarticle800.do?categoryId=9037134&contentId=7068677 (Also home of the BP’s Statistical Yearbook) Climate Analysis Indicator Tools (CAIT) World Resource Institute: Available at: http://cait.wri.org/ International Energy Agency (2011) World Energy Outlook. Available at: http://www.iea.org/weo/ US Energy Information Administration (2011) International Energy Outlook 2011. Available at: http://www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/index.cfm