Global Employment Trends for Youth 2010 Sara Elder International Labour Organization ADAPT Conference, “Productivity, Investment in Human Capital and the

Global Employment Trends for Youth 2010

Sara ElderInternational Labour OrganizationADAPT Conference, “Productivity, Investment in Human Capital and the Challenge of Youth Employment”

Bergamo, 16 December 2010

Agenda1. Labour market trends for youth – the

pre-crisis picture

2. Impact of the global economic crisis on the youth labour market

3. Why are young people vulnerable in the labour market?

4. Why do we care about the youth labour market?

1. Labour market trends for youth – the pre-crisis picture

Quantifying youth vulnerability: What do we know?

What we do not know . . .Unemployed

Discouraged workers

?

Fully employed

?

Underemployed?

In full-time

education ?

Other?

Breakdown of the inactive by reason - how many are in each category?

Inactive

Employed

Shares of underemployed v. fully employed in total employment?

Size of the vulnerable youth population??

What we know . . .

Inactive share

increased from 45.3 to 49.2%

Employed share

decreased from 47.9 to 44.7%

Unemployed share

decreased from 6.8 to 6.1%

Share of working poor - 28.1%

Share of youth in the total population show declining trend in all regions

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

11.0

13.0

15.0

17.0

19.0

21.0

23.0

25.0

Share of youth in the total population, by region,

1991 to 2015WORLD

Developed Economies & European Union

Central & South-East-ern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia

South-East Asia & the Pacific

South Asia

Latin America & the Caribbean

Middle East

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Source: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

Employment-to-population ratios decrease over time for most regions1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

55.0

60.0

65.0

70.0

75.0

Youth employment-to-population ratio, by region, 1991 to 2007

Developed Economies & European Union


East Asia


South Asia


Middle East

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa


Global youth unemployment rates were decreasing before the economic crisis

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010p

2011p

0.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.090.0

10.0

10.5

11.0

11.5

12.0

12.5

13.0

13.5

70.0

66.2

65.9 66.6

71.1

70.8

71.0

71.9

74.3

73.9

75.3

78.0

78.5

78.9

79.6

76.6

72.9

11.7

11.111.211.3

12.112.212.212.4

12.812.712.813.213.213.113.1

12.5

11.9

Global youth unemployment and un-employment rate, 1991 to 2007

Youth unemployment (millions) Youth unemployment rate (%)

Yo

uth

un

em

plo

ym

en

t (m

illi

on

s) Y

ou

th u

ne

mp

loym

en

t rate

(%)


But youth unemployment rates remained at least double those of adults in most countries

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.00.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

Youth and adult unemployment rates, country data, latest years

Developed Economies & Eu-ropean Union

Central & South-Eastern Europe (non-EU) & CIS

East Asia


South Asia


Middle East

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

Adult unemployment rate (%)

Yo

uth

un

em

plo

ym

en

t ra

te (

%)

Inequalities in the chances of finding work

Young women tend to have more difficulty finding work than young men.

In most OECD countries, unemployment is higher among the lesser educated youth; in developing countries, it is the highly educated who face longer job searches.

Unemployment rates are higher among ethnic minorities.

Working poverty rates among youth exceed those of adults

0.0

20.0

40.0

60.0

80.0

100.0Working poverty estimates, youth and

adult cohorts15-24 25+

Sh

are

of

work

ing

poor

in t

ota

l em

plo

ye

d (

%)


2. Impact of the global economic crisis on the youth labour market

The economic crisis reversed pre-crisis progress in global youth unemployment

2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011p68.0

70.0

72.0

74.0

76.0

78.0

80.0

82.0

11.211.411.611.812.012.212.412.612.813.013.2

72.9

74.1

80.7 8

1.2

78.511.9

12.1

13.0 13.1

12.7

Global youth unemployment and un-employment rate, 2007 to 2011

Youth unemployment (millions) Youth unemployment rate (%)

Yo

uth

un

em

plo

ym

en

t (m

illi

on

s) Y

ou

th u

ne

mp

loym

en

t rate

(%)

p = projectionSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

Youth in developed economies are particularly hard hit

2007 2008 2009 2010p 2011p5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0 Youth unemployment rate, by region, 2007 to 2011 Developed Economies

& European Union


East Asia


South Asia


Middle East

North Africa

Sub-Saharan Africa

p = projectionSource: ILO, GET Youth, August 2010

Effects of the crisis on the industrial sector, particularly construction, resulted initially in a sharp increase in unemployment among male youth

M F M F M F M F M F M F

Spain France United King-dom

Euro-pean Union

Ger-many

OECD

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Youth unemployment rate, by sex

200720082009

M = male; F = femaleSource: OECD

Impact of the crisis in 4 EU countries

2007Q

1

2007Q

2

2007Q

3

2007Q

4

2008Q

1

2008Q

2

2008Q

3

2008Q

4

2009Q

1

2009Q

2

2009Q

3

2009Q

4 0

10

20

30

40

50

Youth unemployment rate (%)

Germany Estonia Spain United Kingdom

2007Q

1

2007Q

2

2007Q

3

2007Q

4

2008Q

1

2008Q

2

2008Q

3

2008Q

4

2009Q

1

2009Q

2

2009Q

3

2009Q

4 0

10

20

30

40

Share of long-term unem-ployment in total unem-

ployment, youth (%)


Large increase in youth unemployment rates in Estonia and Spain; little change in Germany.

But in Germany, nearly one-third of those who are unemployed were already unemployed for longer than 12 months; only recently the case in Spain and the UK.

Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Impact of the crisis on youth in 4 EU countries (cont.)

Slight increase in youth part-time employment rates but impact on temporary employment is less obvious.

Part-time employment more relevant for UK youth, but incidence of temporary employment is very low compared to Germany and Spain.

2007Q

1

2007Q

2

2007Q

3

2007Q

4

2008Q

1

2008Q

2

2008Q

3

2008Q

4

2009Q

1

2009Q

2

2009Q

3

2009Q

4 0

10

20

30

40

50Youth part-time employment

rate (%)


2007Q

1

2007Q

2

2007Q

3

2007Q

4

2008Q

1

2008Q

2

2008Q

3

2008Q

4

2009Q

1

2009Q

2

2009Q

3

2009Q

4 0

20

40

60

80

Share of temporary employees in total paid employment,

youth (%)


Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat

Impact of the crisis on youth in developing countries

Lack of decent work is nothing new for majority of youth

Dominance of self-employment acts as a buffer, unemployment rates do not significantly increase … increase in vulnerable employment and casual labour in an “increasingly crowded” informal economy

Secondary consequences on education and training, pregnancy and parenthood, health

Longer term impacts on youth entering the labour market during recession

Impacts timing of labour market entry (“hiding out” in education), the smoothness of the transition (multiple spells of unemployment), social norms adopted (mistrust in the State and economic system)

“Lost generation” ?

3. Why are young people vulnerable in the labour market?Labour demandBusiness cycleWork experience“Bad” educationSkills/talent mismatchTemporary employment/dual labour

marketsEntrepreneurshipDisempowerment

4. Why do we care about youth employment?

Inefficiencies in youth labour market (unemployment, discouragment, working poverty) are costly

Lack of decent work at an early age compromises future employment prospects and impacts behaviour

A young person with hopes and options is happy; take away the options and youth become angry

Future consumers, producers … societies

What can you do?

Advocate for continuing active labour market support of young people

Use your voiceEducate yourselfTake advantage of existing services

(e.g. career guidance, job placement)

Learn how to earn: combine work with studies

Stay engaged and stay positive !

Documents

Global Employment Trends for Youth 2010 Sara Elder International Labour Organization ADAPT Conference, “Productivity, Investment in Human Capital and the