Global Education Futures Agenda

Russian Education Foresight Initiative

Pavel LukshaReengineering Futures Group / SKOLKOVO School of Management /Agency for Strategic Initiatives2010-2014

Elephant driver license?

Our Group’s background: radical experiments in education since 2007

SKOLKOVO integrated programs: taskforce for corporate transformation

Innovation management programs: startup schools, tech+management focus

Unconferences / barcampsEducational games

Foresights

We see foresight as a part of the conscious collective effort to change the world

Foresight: collective vision & maps of the future

Roadmap: actual steps (projects,

initiatives etc.) to reach the future

Projects (startups, corporate & social): real

activities

Leader / team competencies

Resource: finance & stakeholder

support

Our educational, startup & social development programs (done in conjunction with Agency of Strategic Initiatives, Skolkovo School of Management, leading Russian corporations, nation-wide educational networks & international institutions) are built around this model

We aim to support the full ‘value chain’ of innovation & entrepreneurship from idea through design and into experiments & implementation

Our focus on future: ‘human practices’

New technologies

New social & cultural factors

Transformation of ‘human practices’

Education & learning Healthcare

Art & citiesWork

Rapid Foresight: our own approach to it

• Created in 2010 – initially as a tool for education innovators• Dozens of implementations in Russia & internationally

(WorldSkills, International Labor Organization, SF Bay Area)• Intensive sessions (days not months) and lower budget with

comparable quality• Notably more engaging , easily transferrable

Vision into action: educational programs with a new angle

Foresight into Project Acceleration SKOLKOVO integrated programs• Educamp2010: hackathon-type projects

based on the first Russian education foresight

• Academgorodok2011: first startup school in the world based on StartupGenome findings, projects based on the city foresight

• SKOLKOVO programs for leading Russian universities

• First Russian industry-focused startup accelerator during Foresight Fleet 2013 (40 projects, four got financed)

• SkolTech Hackathon 2013 based on Global Education Foresight

Technology & management programs with intense project-based education component:• Program for Chief Innovation Officers

of Russian government-owned corporations

• Program for Russian United Aircraft Corporation

• Programs for R&D managers of Russian Nuclear Corporation

• Two programs for ‘Smart Grids’ taskforce of Russian Grid Company (Chief Technology Officers and HIPOs)

Programs start with collective vision buildingResulting projects become real entrepreneurship / intrapreneurship projects

Vision into action (2): some prominent projects launched with help of ASI since 2011

International platforms (competitions & standards) introduced into Russia

Mass-scale educational programs

Globalnoe ObrazovanieInitiative

Russia’s own innovative educational platforms

Unique educational experiments (focused on hands-on leadership education)

Foresight Fleet: probably, the largest future-awarenesseducation event in the world

• Run since 2012• 500+ leaders (policy-makers,

businessmen, educators, scholars, and artists) no-cell-phone 8 days voyage

• Intense (20 hr/day) work & play with complex (integrated) processes building scenarios for Russia and the world

• Real outcomes: roadmaps, startups, deals, social entrepreneurship projects

Charting the future of education & navigating the map:a successful model

Year New Education Charting Applications of the Map

2010-11 First Russian education foresight at Educamp 2010First Russian ‘map of the future of education’

First session for early stage ed tech startupsSeveral student forums

2012 First Russian foresight on higher education perspectives

Development projects by leader teams of top 50 Russian universities

2012-13 First Russian skills foresight across 19 industries providing new requirements for school & university curriculum based on demand of industries [Report + Navigator through jobs of the future

Program of reorganization of transport industry education (19 universities)Interactive career-orientation games for high-school students (Yaroslavl)Strategy session with World Skills International BoD

2013-14 First version of the Report on Global Education Futures Agenda, incl. map of the future of education & 150-pages comprehensive report

Strategy of the Ministry of EducationDevelopment strategies of top 15 universitiesFirst startup accelerator for 40 ed tech startups (4 obtained financing)First ed tech hackathon @ Skolkovo

Global Education Futures Agenda: 2014 report

Education Futures 2030 Map: 200+ trends, technologies & educational formats that will inform global education agenda

Education Futures Report: 150+ pages of one of the most comprehensive studies globallyabout the future of education

and more to come: web & iPad application, interactive games etc.www.edu2030.org

Focus of the Global Futures Report

Formation of the basic system (early industrial logic). Basic schooling, parochial schools. Technical College. Higher education for the elite.

Creation of integrated national systems (the logic of developed industrialism). Mass schooling. Special and technical schools. Mass higher education, “Big universities”. Knowledge-focused education. Qualifications approach.

Formation of educational sphere (early post-industrial logic). New teaching approaches. Focus on skills & competencies. Project- and activity-based education. Meta-competency education.

Early industrialized Industrialized Late-/post-industrialized

Less developed nations, ca. 40% of the world’s population (Africa, Latin America, Central Asia)

Emerging nations, ca. 45% of the world’s population (China, India, the Arab World, SEA)

Developed nations, ca. 15% of the world’s population (OECD countries)

As a rule, global education reports originate in ‘equalization of opportunities’ or ‘helping the laggards’ standpoint

Our focus: the cutting edge of educational practices and the new global architecture of education

This group is characterized by:• being at, or near,

technological frontier, incl. ICT

• ‘first world’ problems

• “encumbrances” (developed social institutions of the industrial past become liabilities or burden)

Setting the common ground: major global challenges calling for the search for new models of education

Digital technologies

Changing models of knowledge creation, preservation and transmission.Changes in achievement recording and evaluation / assessment procedures. Changes in the process of managing personal development trajectory. Changes in the management of educational institutions, etc.

Education tech start-ups

The new & rapidly growing market of solutions with potential to complement or even replace traditional formats of industrial education

Hyper-competition & emergence of new industries

Demand for educational and research pragmaticsRequirements for the new content and new educational formats: (a) maximum flexibility & development of meta-professional competences, and (b) superfast education and narrow-focused competence development

Education as an asset

The development of a variety of investment models in education (including financial investment models). Demand for quality control and transparency of education outcomes.

Challenges of consumer society

Trend: growing share of students with a reduced motivation for education (when basic needs are satisfied).Counter-trend: growing proportion of ‘independent learners’ demanding ‘learning their own way’.

Defining Education in Lifelong ContextWe see education as an institutionalized process of individual development support from birth to death. Formalized educational institutions are responsible for only a fraction of this process.

Formal education during the first

trimester of life (school & university)

Socialization(in family and in society)

-1… human life cycle …100+

Early develop-

ment (family, kinder-garten)

Development of personal traits and self-development

Further development of professional competency

Acquiring new knowledge as a hobby or a change of career track

Education as a tool that helps solve family problems and overcome crises (incl. parent education)

Team education as a development tool for corporations, NGOs, state institutions, communities etc.

Elderly adaptation

Prag

mati

cPe

rson

alis

ed

Multiple stakeholder perspective in analyzingthe future of educationDifferent stakeholder positions mean different visions of future education

Education for

complete life cycle

INDIVIDUAL

FAMILY

COMMUNITIES(FORMAL AND INFORMAL)

STATE

BUSINESS (as an employer and as a seller)

Scenario dimensions or facets?

The perceived contradiction between these polarities is misleading! Future education models will be created by taking the ‘middle path’ that overcomes, not embraces, these contradictions. Thus the model of education is integral and inclusive

Education is …

holistic unbundledphysical virtualhuman-intense technology-intensesynchronous asynchronouspersonalized communalizedinstitutionalized de-institutionalizedconservative transformative

Transformation of education: Where the changes come from

Infrastructure of communication:

ICT

Infrastructure of body: medicine &

fitness

Infrastructure of production & consumption:

finance

New solutions in education

Transformation of traditional institutions

Aspects of education:• Knowledge acquisition &

creation of new knowledge• Socialization, skills

development, personal growth• Recording / evaluation of

progress & achievements

Major trends:• Development of new technologies• Changes in political & economic environment• Social & cultural transformations

Key ‘infrastructures’ of society

Background: some technologies influencing thetransformation of education

Automation of Intellectual Routines

2013 2016 2025 2035

Semantic translation engines (2019)

‘Strong’ artificial intelligence (also used

in virtual worlds) (2027)

Cognitive Revolution

Mass-market neurointerfaces

HTTP 2.0: Thought transfer protocol

(2025)

Digitization & Mobility

Domination of Internet of things

Widespread blended AR/VR reality in large

cities

Full scale virtual worlds for

work & play

‘New authencity’ (2015-2025)

‘Brain fitness’ technologies

New psycho-pharm (2020-)

BigData analysis of everyday behavioral

patterns

Key trends that shape the new (holistic) model of educationGlobalization of education: МOOCs and other truly transnational providers, threat of ‘educational imperialism’ and ‘battles for educational sovereignity’

Personalization: first demanded by economies that directly invest into talents, then increasingly demanded by self-managed learners

Community-based learning: from education that focuses on best performing teams, to communities of practices (and families, and neighbourhoods, …) that increasingly own

their learning processes

Gamefication: from edutainment that supports education, through games that help overcome trauma & dysfunctional social behaviour, to games that become the core of

education, work and daily lives

Change of knowledge-management models: from digitalization of science and the ‘fourth paradigm’, through intense use of semantic technologies, into AI-based live

knowledge of CoPs and the ‘New Aristotel’

NeuroWeb: from ‘Quantify Self’ applied to education (esp. real-time biometry), to use of neural interfaces for direct download of experiences and learnings

New Education Landscape

in 3-5 yrs in 7-10 yrs in 15-20 yrs

• МООСs integrated by educational trajectories

• Academic grades give way to achievement recognition & competency passports

• New models of direct talent investment and other financial / insurance tools in education (for learners & investors)

• The first ‘Billion-Student University’

• Mentor networks and artificial tutors

• Mass market solutions for full-scale education without ever entering school or university

• Major role of gaming environments and augmented reality

• Objectivation of education process via biometry / neurointerfaces

• Game and teamwork are predominate forms of education and social interactions

• Artificial intelligence as a mentor (“Diamond Age Primer”) and a partner in research

• ‘Live knowledge’ models and the death of Gutenberg Galaxy

• Education in NeuroWeb- linked groups and new pedagogy

Obsolesce of Formats

by 2017 by 2025 by 2035

• ‘Human phonograph’ industrial teaching based on standard textbooks & tests (replaced by ICT based solutions)

• Standardized tests (complemented & replaced by tests more focused on unique & creative abilities)

• Semester grades (replaced by continuous result recording)

• Graduation diplomas (replaced by life-long competency diploma)

• Academic journals (replaced by researcher communication networks), citation indexing standards & IPR management system (replaced by comprehensive digital KM ontologies)

• Single-author textbooks• ASCs as a social deviation

• Comprehensive schools• Research universities• Texts (books & articles)

as a predominant medium of knowledge-based communication

Following existing educational formats will be largely recognized in developed countries as ineffective or obsolete given the availability of feasible alternatives

Education in human life cycle: from sprinting to marathons

Life time

Intensity

0… 25 50 75

Life time

Intensity

0… 25 50 75 100+

Education 2013 Education 2030

childhood education culminating in ‘rite of passage’ into adult life

lifelong education through all stages of adult life, with second ‘intensity peak’ during the transition into eldery life

education of the ‘first-third’ of life (school & university) followed by professional education interventions

Learner’s path in 2030 education (demand side)

Goal-setting

Personal development trajectory

Worldview, languages, intellectual development (IQ)

Supporting tech

solutionsOnline

courses, knowledge

libraries

Simulators and

MMORPG

Biometry / biofeedback

wearbles and neurointerfaces

Managing body-and-mind states, healthy behavior (PQ / EQ)

Social and managerial skills (SQ / EQ)

Team games / group projects that correspond to the level and goals of individual development (or development in the family)

Achievement recording during education process

Personal competency ‘passport’

Integrated portfolio of creative achievement

(incl. game achievements)

Evaluation and feedback from mentors, peers,

users of project results, members of

communities of practice

Project/game tasks and participants markets

Self-defined (and continuously adjusted) personal development goals

Goals defined by or with mentors as guides though

educational process

Goals defined by the role model (‘My

Hero’s Path’)

Indicators of the quality of educational process (engagement, ‘flow’)

‘Enforced’ goals (e.g. by parents or

employers)

Learner’s tech environment in 2030 education (supply side)

“Cloud” of competence models and standards

&Developer’s tools (ed

products & integration into non-ed products)

Bio-monitoring (wearables etc.)

Educational trajectory management interface

EDSTORE

Libraries of MOOCs and simulators (with rankings)

Ed-BigData:data processing systems

Assessment and certification systems

(incl. games and social networks)

Online competency passport &

integrated portfolio

Gateways to game worlds, social networks and

collaborative environments

Opportunity markets(vacant positions/projects/games to gain

experience and/or reputation)

New financial tools (reputational capital, investment solutions)

Financial & insurance instruments for New Education

Instrument type

Key logic Trends supported

1 Direct talent investment

- return on investment- transparency, accountability, manageability

- personalization of education- data mining of profitable education&career trajectories

2 Insurance model

- being competent is like being healthy (hence: ed insurance plan) - investment protection

- support to direct talent investment model- personalization of education- education in communities / teams

3 Ed co-op - co-financing the development of community / team competences

- education in communities / teams

4 Educational bookmaking

- ‘’players’ bet on their ability to learn a subject or master a skill

- gamefication of education- personalization (competing with ‘peers’)

5 Exchange & accumulation of reputation capital

- reputation in community is exchanged and increased through learning & teaching

- education in communities / teams- gamefication of education

Technoparadigm in Education – Teacher’s Friend or Foe?

Obsolescent occupations Emerging occupations

• ‘human phonograph’ teachers & professors

• certain administrative positions(e.g. educational process planners)

• authors of ‘pre-digital’ textbooks

Occupations dealing with development and implementation of solutions for:• ‘blended’ learning that combines online / offline

learning modules• learning through real-life projects• learning embedded in games• learning using wearables• managing education and career trajectories• evaluation and assessment

Significant growth in the number of workplaceswith a major shift in key competences demanded

Big Markets for New Education

Educational systems become educational spheres. This creates a number of new large markets where new companies size of Google or Facebook will thrive.

• Competence, achievement & reputation tracking

• Ed search engine and/or EdStore

• Ed-BigData solutions• Ed developer tools• Ed trajectory

management & artificial tutors

• Mentor networks• Opportunity and

talent exchange markets

Backbone solutions

• Simulators for prolonged team training

• Simulators for alienated & delinquents

• Games with augmented reality in corporate & urban environment

• Simulators of risky & hazardous situations

• ‘Playing with values’• ‘Psychodrama worlds’

Virtual worlds for playing and learning

• State-of-mind training tools (incl. wearables) & attention management schools

• Measurement of engagement & learning attained

• Sensoriums

Neuro- solutions

+ solutions to ‘patch up’ industrial model of education

New ed finance

Big Markets for New Education: Wave of Startups & Spin-offs

• The ‘double hump’ effect is typical for many innovative sectors and could also be expected in ed tech market. Businesses that remain afloat after the initial bubble collapses will set new standards

• Risk of overheating and collapse is compensated by the possibility of emergence of game-changing innovations. At this point it is not possible to forecast which startups have better become the backbone of the new educational sphere – thus experimenting is crucial

‘Crutches’ and ‘patches’ for the current system using existing ICT infrastructure. Growing bubble in ed tech market segment.

Plunging of ed tech market players focused on solutions complementary to existing education. Growth of solutions offering new standards. Wars of standards and formats. Next gen ICT infrastructure used (incl. AIs, AR, biomonitors & neurointerfaces etc.)

New education solutions become the basic infrastructure in the developed world

2010-2017 2017-2025 2025 - 2035

Crisis in education recognized

ICT called to address the issues

Ed tech a new fashion

Lack

of syst

emic

backb

one solutions

New generation of leaders in education rises

What will happen to ‘industrial’ education model?Changes in education systems strongly resemble the ones that take place in the energy sector with the proliferation of smart grids:

• ‘Industrial model’ (mass / standardized) education system will provide the ‘base load’ educational service for another 15-20 years, until efficient & sustainable alternatives are developed, able to provide same or higher quality services with lower cost

• However, ‘industrial model’ education will rapidly lose its monopoly as more and more alternative providers emerge (kids born in 2013/14 will be able to get high quality / reasonable cost education without ever entering school of university)

• Return on investment in ‘industrial model’ schools & universities will become substantial lower (due to effects of new education) and the industrial age education systems in most countries will keep deteriorating, increasing inequality within & between education systems (with some leaders breaking far ahead)

time

Cost of service

‘Industrial’ educationNew Education

The speed of emergence of the New Education will depend on whether new solutions will be able to provide same or better services for lower cost in areas invested by the state (socialization and social adaptation, national security etc.)

~2020-25

Questions that are more important than answers

How to create a truly holistic educational model that…

• addresses the variety of changing human needs and personal challenges throughout human life?

• resolves the inevitable conflict between our personal learning needs and needs of communities & organizations that we are part of?

• retains and embraces diversity, becoming the place where our most authentic qualities can thrive?

• works towards better future, and takes the role of transformational leadership in implementing such future?

• becomes fair & just through gradual elimination of inequalities related to income, geography, gender, race, age, native language etc.?

‘Future ecosystem’ logic: growing together

Collective vision building informs us about possible future designs of sector ecosystem architecture

Some elements (components, relations) may be weak or non-existent in present quasi-ecosystem. Thus, most of new educational solutions fall back onto existing system structure (K-12, college, university etc.)

Ecosystems can be ‘grown’ as independently viable yet interdependent solutions that support and strengthen each other.Growing infrastructural solutions that tie ecosystems together is particularly important.

December 2014Moscowfor Europe, Middle East & Africa

October 2014Vladivostok

for Asia & Pacific region

February 2015San Francisco for Americas & the World

2 1

3

Three sessions, three locations, one world, one map

SF East Bay Area local ecosystem project

Russianationalecosystem project