GLOBAL ECONOMIC AND DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS AND THEIR IMPLICATIONS

FOR SOCIAL PROGRAMS IN RUSSIA

Maureen PirogRudy Professor of Public and Environmental Affairs, Indiana UniversityVisiting Professor, Daniel J. Evans School of Public Affairs, University of

WashingtonApril 6, 2010

PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION AGE 60 OR OLDER – 2010

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION AGE 60 OR OLDER – 2020

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION AGE 60 OR OLDER – 2030

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION AGE 60 OR OLDER – 2040

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

PERCENTAGE OF THE TOTAL POPULATION AGE 60 OR OLDER – 2050

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

POPULATION AGED 60 OR OLDER

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

POPULATION AGED 15-59(AS A PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION)

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

RUSSIAN POPULATION

Source: Kumo, Morinaga, & Shida, 2007 (Historical Estimates); Population Division, DESA, United Nations (Projections)

INFANT MORTALITY RATES(IN DEATHS PER 1,000 BIRTHS)

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

ALCOHOL-RELATED DEATHS(PER 100,000 POPULATION)

Source: Russian Federal State Statistics Service; United States Center for Disease Control, National Vital Statistics System

SMOKING-RELATED DEATHS(PER 100,000 POPULATION)

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations; Peto, Lopez, Boreham, & Thun (2006)

HIV PREVALENCE, AGES 15-49(PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION)

Source: United Nations Children’s Fund

DEATHS FROM CARDIOVASCULAR DISEASE:RUSSIA VS. EUROPEAN UNION, 1980-2006

Source: World Health Organization, “Europe Health for All Database,” updated January 2009available at www.euro.who.int/HFADB (accessed April 30, 2009)

DEATHS FROM INFECTIOUS AND PARASITIC DISEASES:

RUSSIA VS. EUROPEAN UNION, 1980-2006

Source: World Health Organization, “Europe Health for All Database,” updated January 2009available at www.euro.who.int/HFADB (accessed April 30, 2009.)

DEATHS FROM INJURY/EXTERNAL CAUSES (compared to PPP adjusted per-capita GDP, 2002)

Source: Morality rates: World Health Organization (WHO), WHO Statistical Information System. GDP data: World Bank, World Development Indicators.

Total Child Support Collected in the United States(in 2008 U.S. Dollars, Adjusted for Inflation)

Source: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Office of Child Support Enforcement

NUMBER OF DIVORCES (PER 1,000 MARRIAGES)

Source: Center for Disease Control and Prevention, National Vital Statistics Reports; Russian Federal State Statistics Service; ArticStat Database

NUMBER OF ABORTIONS (PER 1,000 LIVE BIRTHS)

Source: World Health Organization Regional Office for Europe and U.S. Center for Disease Control

COUNTRIES WITH THE LARGEST NUMBEROF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS

(IN MILLIONS)

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

COUNTRIES WITH THE LARGEST NUMBEROF INTERNATIONAL MIGRANTS

(AS PERCENTAGE OF TOTAL POPULATION)

Source: Population Division, DESA, United Nations

ANNUAL PERCENTAGE OF CHANGE IN REAL GDP, 2000-2010*

*Estimates begin after 2007/2008Source: World Economic Outlook Database, October 2009

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