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Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
2 © Transport Intelligence Contents
CONTENTS
1. INTRODUCTION
1.1. History of e-commerce
1.2. e-commerce and e-commerce logistics definitions
1.3. e-commerce and e-commerce logistics fundamentals
2. TRENDS AND DEVELOPMENTS
2.1. Cross-border e-commerce logistics
2.2. City Centre logistics model
2.3. On-demand delivery platforms and implications for the parcels sector
3. E-RETAIL RETURNS
3.1. The challenge of returns in the e-retail sector
3.2. Dealing with returns
3.3. Returns as a tool for competitive advantage
3.4. Existing return solutions
3.5. Future returns solutions
4. E-COMMERCE LOGISTICS SURVEY
4.1. Demographic profile of participants
4.2. Proportion of e-commerce sales/traffic
4.3. Proportion of B2C sales/traffic
4.4. Cross-border vs. domestic e-commerce
4.5. Brand differentiation
4.6. Logistics Outsourcing
4.7. Top challenges in e-commerce logistics
4.8. Strategies for peak season
4.9. e-commerce logistics costs
4.10. Threats for LSPs
4.11. Future developments
4.12. Technology adoption
5. TECHNOLOGY
5.1. Introduction
5.2 Significant Technologies
5.3. Fast fashion is getting faster
6. E-COMMERCE LOGISTICS COSTS STRUCTURES, MARKET SIZES
AND FORECASTS
6.1 Definition of e-commerce logistics costs
6.2 Summary of logistics cost structures in e-commerce
6.3 e-commerce logistics costs as a % of sales for selected retailers
6.4 Differences in e-commerce logistics cost structures: Vertical sectors
6.5 Differences in e-commerce logistics cost structures: Retail channels
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3 © Transport Intelligence Contents
6.6. Differences in e-commerce logistics cost structures:
Warehousing/fulfilment costs vs Last-mile/outbound shipping costs
6.7. Differences in e-commerce logistics cost structures: Geographies
6.8. Differences in e-commerce logistics cost structures: Other
considerations
6.9. Differences in e-commerce logistics cost structures: Store-based vs e-
commerce
6.10. e-commerce logistics market sizing methodology
6.11. Global e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
6.12. Asia Pacific e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
6.13. Europe e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
6.14. Middle East & North Africa e-commerce logistics market size and
forecast
6.15. North America e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
6.16. Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia e-commerce logistics market size
and forecast
6.17. South America e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
6.18. Sub-Saharan Africa e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
7. E-COMMERCE LOGISTICS STRATEGIES
7.1. Competitive comparison
7.2. Alibaba
7.3. Amazon
7.4. ASOS
7.5. JD.com
7.6. John Lewis
7.7. Ocado
7.8. Walmart
7.9. Souq
7.10. Mercado Libre
7.11. Rocket Internet
8. E-COMMERCE LOGISTICS PROVIDERS
8.1. Competitive comparison – e-fulfilment logistics
8.2. Competitive comparison – last-mile logistics
8.2. Clipper Logistics
8.3. Deutsche Post DHL Group
8.4. FedEx
8.5. Kuehne + Nagel
8.6. La Poste (DPD)
8.7. Royal Mail (GLS)
8.8. SEKO Logistics
8.9. Singapore Post
8.10. UPS
8.11. USPS
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8.12. XPO Logistics
ABOUT TI
Table of Figures
Figure 2.1 Global Annual Online Sales Growth
Figure 2. 2. Global cross-border B2C e-commerce transaction value (US$
billion)
Figure 2.3 Drivers changing City Last-Mile Deliveries
Figure 2.4 Share of online shoppers who used Click &Collect (2016)
Figure 3.1 Typical returns network
Figure 3.2 Returns options
Figure 4.1 In which industry does your company operate?
Figure 4.2 What type of e-commerce logistics services do you provide?
Figure 4.3 How do you predict that the proportion of your company's
current sales/volumes that relate to e-commerce will change within the next
five years?
Figure 4.4 How do you predict that the percentage of your current B2C e-
commerce sales/traffic will change within the next five years?
Figure 4.5 How do you predict that your share of cross-border e-commerce
sales will change within the next five years?
Figure 4.6 Listed below are a number of attributes that have been used to
describe different e-commerce logistics providers. Could you please tell us
which, if any, apply to the brands listed below that you are aware of?
Figure 4.7 How do you expect online retailers’ outsourcing habits to change
over the next five years?
Figure 4.8 Which type of retailer do you think is more likely to outsource
logistics functions?
Figure 4.9 What are your top 3 challenges in e-commerce logistics?
Figure 4.10 What strategies do you have in place to handle seasonal and
promotional peaks?
Figure 4.11 How do you expect retailers’ e-commerce logistics costs as a
% of their sales to change over the next five years?
Figure 4.12 If your e-commerce logistics costs are changing, what drives
this change?
Figure 4.13 What strategies do you have in place to reduce your e-
commerce logistics costs?
Figure 4.14 Which of the following factors has the greatest impact on your
margins on last-mile and e-fulfilment
Figure 4.15 What do you consider to be the main threats to your e-
commerce logistics operations in the next five years?
Figure 4.16 Which of these areas are of interest to your company for future
development?
Figure 4.17 What technology are you looking to invest in to improve your e-
commerce logistics?
Figure 6.1 Core determinants of e-commerce logistics cost structures
Figure 6.2 e-commerce logistics costs as a % of sales for selected retailers
Figure 6.3 Multi-channel vs omni-channel fulfilment
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Figure 6.4 Multi-channel/omni-channel spectrum
Figure 6.5 Division of fulfilment and last-mile costs
Figure 6.6. USA top 10 online retailers by GMV 2016
Figure 6.7 Europe top 10 online retailers by sales 2015
Figure 6.8 Sales structure of China’s Online Retail Sales
Figure 6.9 Global e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
Figure 6.10 Global e-commerce logistics market forecast scenarios
Figure 6.11 Global e-commerce logistics market size by region (2017)
Figure 6.12 Global e-commerce logistics market size by region (2021)
Figure 6.13 Asia Pacific e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
Figure 6.14 Asia Pacific e-commerce logistics market forecast scenarios
Figure 6.15 Asia Pacific e-commerce logistics market size by country
(2017)
Figure 6.16 Asia Pacific e-commerce logistics market size by country
(2021)
Figure 6.17 Europe e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
Figure 6.18 Europe e-commerce logistics market forecast scenarios
Figure 6.19 Europe e-commerce logistics market size by country (2017)
Figure 6.20 Europe e-commerce logistics market size by country (2021)
Figure 6.21 Middle East & North Africa e-commerce logistics market size
and forecast
Figure 6.22 Middle East & North Africa e-commerce logistics market
forecast scenarios
Figure 6.23 Middle East & North Africa e-commerce logistics market size
by country (2017)
Figure 6.24 Middle East & North Africa e-commerce logistics market size
by country (2021)
Figure 6.25 North America e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
Figure 6.26 North America e-commerce logistics market forecast scenarios
Figure 6.27 North America e-commerce logistics market size by country
(2017)
Figure 6.28 North America e-commerce logistics market size by country
(2021)
Figure 6.29 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia e-commerce logistics
market size and forecast
Figure 6.30 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia e-commerce logistics
market forecast scenarios
Figure 6.31 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia e-commerce logistics
market size by country (2017)
Figure 6.32 Russia, Caucasus and Central Asia e-commerce logistics
market size by country (2021)
Figure 6.33 South America e-commerce logistics market size and forecast
Figure 6.34 South America e-commerce logistics market forecast scenarios
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
6 © Transport Intelligence Contents
Figure 6.35 South America e-commerce logistics market size by country
(2017)
Figure 6.36 South America e-commerce logistics market size by country
(2021)
Figure 6.37 Sub-Saharan Africa e-commerce logistics market size and
forecast
Figure 6.38 Sub-Saharan Africa e-commerce logistics market forecast
scenarios
Figure 6.39 Sub-Saharan Africa e-commerce logistics market size by
country (2017)
Figure 6.40 Sub-Saharan Africa e-commerce logistics market size by
country (2021)
Figure 7.1 National Markets Served Through Dedicated Sites
Figure 7.2 Strategies to compete with Amazon
Figure 7.3 Alibaba-affiliated companies handled more than 70% of the
31.3bn parcels handled in China during 2016
Figure 7.4 Cainiao Financials
Figure 7.5 Amazon Net Sales 2008 to 2017
Figure 7.6 Amazon Net Sales by Geographic Region (and AWS) % to Total
2017
Figure 7.7 Amazon Net Sales by Country % to Total 2017
Figure 7.8 Revenue by Business Segment % to Total 2017
Figure 7.9 Amazon Fulfilment Costs 2009 to 2016
Figure 7.10 Amazon Outbound Shipping Costs 2009 to 2016
Figure 7.11 Amazon Outbound Shipping Revenues 2009 to 2016
Figure 7.12 Amazon and key competitors
Figure 7.13 ASOS 2017 Retail Sales by Region
Figure 7.14 JD.com fulfilment process
Figure 7.15 Mercado Libre Net Revenues by Geography
Figure 8.1 The e-fulfilment logistics market
Figure 8.2 Clipper Logistics Finances: Revenue by Business Segment % to
Total (2016)
Figure 8.3. Clipper Logistics: Returns Process
Figure 8.4. PeP Revenue by Business Segment % to Total 2016
Figure 8.5. Parcel Revenue by Business Segment % to Total 2016
Figure 8.6. Parcel Germany Sorting Centre Network Expansion 2010 to
2016
Figure 8.7. DHL Parcel Europe Geographic Presence
Figure 8.8. DHL eCommerce fulfilment process
Figure 8.9. DHL eCommerce fulfilment centre network
Figure 8.10. DHL’s view of the future of US e-commerce supply chains
Figure 8.11. DHL Express Revenue by Business Segment % to Total
Figure 8.12 FedEx SmartPost zone skipping
Figure 8.13 Kuehne + Nagel global e-commerce fulfilment footprint
Figure 8.14 K+N end-to-end e-commerce offering across all business units
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7 © Transport Intelligence Contents
Figure 8.15 Kuehne + Nagel e-commerce logistics ecosystem
Figure 8.16 DPD Predict Service Availability
Figure 8.17 GLS ParcelShops network
Figure 8.18 SEKO Logistics: Omni-channel logistics network
Figure 8.19 UPS Delivery System
Figure 8.20 My Choice and Access Point Coverage
Figure 8.21 XPO Logistics Finances: Revenue by Vertical % to Total
(2016)
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
8 © Transport Intelligence Contents
1. INTRODUCTION
As e-commerce markets have matured, consumer expectations on
deliveries have increase dramatically. Retailers often use the last-mile to
differentiate themselves and gain a competitive advantage, at least in the
short-term.
In the early stages of e-commerce adoption, online purchasers demanded
relatively fast delivery at a low-cost point, preferably free. However, as these
markets matured, and customers became accustomed to greater choice,
expectations on delivery speed, quality, certainty, cost and flexibility
increased. With next-day and same-day delivery now the norm in more
established markets, online purchasers are seeking ever faster delivery
options, with more than 50% of online shoppers now stating that they want
e-commerce sites to offer one-hour deliveries in metropolitan areas.
Expectations are now so high that if a retailer does not offer the delivery
service (speed or certainty) that a consumer expects or does not use a last-
mile company that they approve of, the individual will terminate the purchase.
According to a recent study undertaken in the US, 27% of shoppers (among
the most experienced online purchasers globally) stated that they had left an
online retailer’s website due to same-day delivery not being provided as an
option (an increase of 10% from the previous survey). Another 25% also
terminated a transaction due to the lack of a ‘day-certain’ service. In addition,
28% of purchasers abandoned an online purchase because the last-mile
operator used by the e-retailer was a company that they had previously had
a bad experience with. This latter point, the ability for consumers to choose
the carrier that will handle their online purchase, is becoming a key
consideration for a growing number of online shoppers.
This constant increase in delivery choice, and control by the consumer, is
forcing e-retailers and last-mile providers to adapt their operational and
pricing models, despite it being considered by many to be unsustainable. A
number of companies are looking at developing new distribution models to
serve high delivery-dense locations, such as cities, whilst others are
implementing additional charges, or increasing the sales limit before free
delivery becomes available. This is the case with UPS which not only
charges extra for ‘Extended and Remote Areas’ but also for the delivery of
packages during ‘Peak Periods’, e.g. Christmas, Black Friday and Cyber
Monday. These surcharges are in addition to the usual fees paid by retailers
or customers.
It is unknown how much more choice online customers can be provided with.
However, it is clear that if retailers keep acceding to the ever-increasing
demands of purchasers for faster deliveries, to a greater number of locations,
at minimal cost, with the option to choose provider and change delivery
windows, then we are likely to see more last-mile operators implementing
additional charges or risk further erosion of profit.
Aside from last-mile, fulfilment presents its own set of issues. Retailers
continue to grapple with transforming their multi-channel operations to omni-
channel and deciding whether they should do it themselves or outsource to
an LSP. Traditional LSPs are having to adapt, moving into new areas such
as digital e-commerce services to differentiate themselves from the
competition. They are competing against a raft of start-ups as well as the
behemoths of global e-commerce, such as Amazon (Fulfilment by Amazon)
and China’s Alibaba (Cainiao) and JD (JD Logistics). As the Chinese
providers expand their footprint globally, they won’t just be competing with
Amazon for online sales, they will vie for a greater piece of the e-fulfilment
logistics pie too. Life could get much tougher for traditional LSPs.
e-commerce evidently presents unusual and difficult logistics challenges,
which are exacerbated by its rapid pace of change. The key for LSPs is
delivering services which both satisfy their clients and are consistently
profitable. For many, this remains elusive, and it is likely to get more difficult
as both consumer demand and supplier competition increases.
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
9 © Transport Intelligence Contents
Figure 4.4 How do you predict that the percentage of your current B2C e-
commerce sales/traffic will change within the next five years?
4.4. Cross-border vs. domestic e-commerce
Moving forward, cross-border sales will prove to be a significant growth
driver of overall e-commerce, according to survey participants. This was the
view held by both shippers and LSPs.
The key implication here is that cross-border and going global will be a major
opportunity for retailers moving forward. However, every opportunity comes
with challenges. In the context of cross-border e-commerce, these include
higher logistics costs as the cost efficiencies offered by localised fulfilment
and quicker shipments cannot be captured with cross-border shipments. In
other words, cross-border retail is putting a strain on traditional operating
models, making them no longer fit for purpose. This, combined with the ever-
increasing customer expectations for premium shipping options are some of
the main factors that might discourage many retailers from reaching a bigger,
international customer base. Retailers’ pain points in cross-border e-
commerce, however, translate into business opportunities for LSPs. With
logistics becoming a key differentiator in cross-border e-commerce, LSPs
that specialise in this area are poised to capture a larger market share from
the burgeoning cross-border e-commerce growth.
Figure 4.5 How do you predict that your share of cross-border e-commerce
sales will change within the next five years?
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
10 © Transport Intelligence Contents
6.10. e-commerce logistics market sizing methodology
Definition of e-commerce logistics
For Ti’s definition of e-commerce logistics, refer to page 8.
What sales channels are involved in Ti’s definition of e-commerce
logistics market sizes?
The logistics costs incurred from all internet retailing of physical goods are
included in the e-commerce logistics market sizes. Logistics costs incurred
from all other sales channels are not included in the e-commerce logistics
market sizes. The only B2B sales that are included are those classified as
retail sales.
Are both domestic and cross-border e-commerce logistics activities
included in the market sizing?
Yes. Any domestic e-commerce logistics activity is allocated to the country
in which it takes place. For cross-border e-commerce logistics, it is a matter
of the location of the seller. For instance, for goods ordered from a Japanese
website destined for China, the logistics costs incurred are attributed to
Japan’s e-commerce logistics market size.
Does the market sizing include both outsourced and in-house e-
commerce logistics activities?
Yes. Each e-commerce logistics market size should be seen as the ‘total’ e-
commerce logistics market for a given country or region. Of the total market,
some proportion is accounted for by in-house logistics activities, with the
remainder being outsourced logistics. Estimates of the proportion of in-
house or outsourced ecommerce logistics in any given market are not
provided in this report.
Growth rates
Nominal growth rates
All market size growth rates in this chapter, including forecast growth rates,
are estimates of nominal growth. That is, they estimate how much the market
has grown due to both volume and price changes.
Logistics costs as a % of online retail sales
Note that all 2017 growth rates of e-commerce logistics markets (including
forecasts) are estimates of how much online retail sales of physical goods
have increased in a given market. It is assumed that logistics costs as a %
of online retail sales remain constant year-on-year. This ensures that online
retail sales growth equals e-commerce logistics market growth for any given
country. The assumption that logistics costs as a % of online retail sales
remains constant will not be correct in reality. The more this proportion
changes year-on-year, the larger any error will be. However, given the fact
that logistics costs as a % of online retail sales for many online retailers tends
to display no clear upward or downward trend over time, it appears to be the
most reasonable assumption to make. Moreover, year-on-year deviations to
logistics costs, as a % of online retail sales for many online retailers, tend to
be relatively small. On aggregate, it is expected that errors arising from this
assumption are usually relatively small. For a table containing data of
logistics costs as a % of online retail sales over time for various online
retailers, see page 62.
Exchange rates
For all relevant 2017 market sizes, conversion to euros has taken place by
applying the 2017 average annual exchange rate. Note that while all growth
rates take into account volume and price changes, they do not account for
exchange rate movements. Thus, all 2016 market size figures, as well as
forecasts to 2021, have been calculated on a constant exchange rate basis.
In other words, all market size figures are measured on a 2017 annual
average exchange rate basis.
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
11 © Transport Intelligence Contents
Forecasts
Three scenarios (expected, low and high) of how the market may develop
are presented for each market.
Expected
The expected scenario assumes that logistics costs as a % of online sales
remain constant over the course of the forecast, or equivalently the net
impact of changing logistics costs as a % of online sales over the forecast
horizon is zero, such that online retail sales growth equals e-commerce
logistics market growth.
High
The high scenario assumes that in each year of the forecast, logistics costs
as a % of online sales are two percentage points higher than compared to
what they were in 2017. For instance, if logistics costs as a % of online sales
were 15% in 2017 for a given market, then the forecast assumes that they
are 17% in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021.
Low
The low scenario assumes that in each year of the forecast, logistics costs
as a % of online sales are two percentage points lower than compared to
what they were in 2017. For instance, if logistics costs as a % of online sales
were 15% in 2017 for a given market, then the forecast assumes that they
are 13% in 2018, 2019, 2020 and 2021.
CAGRs
It should be noted that in the majority of cases, it is expected that growth
rates in the earlier years of the forecast will be higher than in the later years,
as online retail sales growth tends to slow over time. Some volatility should
be expected, especially in nascent and emerging e-commerce markets.
7.2. Alibaba
The Alibaba Group is the world's largest retailer by GMV. For the year ended March 31, 2017, Alibaba reported GMV of $547bn. To put this into context, Chinese rival JD had GMV of $94.8bn in 2016, while Amazon’s GMV was estimated at $206bn in 2016 by FTI Consulting. In China, Alibaba operates
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
12 © Transport Intelligence Contents
online retail marketplaces including Taobao (China’s largest mobile commerce destination), Tmall (China’s largest third-party platform for brands and retailers) and Juhuasuan (sales and marketing platform for flash sales), as well as the wholesale marketplace 1688.com and the Rural Taobao programme (addresses consumption needs in China’s rural areas). Its international cross-border operations include AliExpress (global marketplace for buying Chinese goods), Alibaba.com (China's largest global online wholesale marketplace), Tmall Global (platform within Tmall for overseas brands to reach Chinese consumers) and Lazada (operates commerce platforms in Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand and Vietnam - Controlling stake acquired in April 2016). Alibaba also offers cloud computing services, and media and entertainment services. Through a mixture of investment and co-operation Alibaba is involved with several non-consolidated companies including AliPay (online payments), as well as Cainiao (logistics). In the year to March 2017 Alibaba Group achieved revenues of $22.99bn, which represented a 56.5% increase on the previous year. Meanwhile EBITDA rose by 42.3% to $10.817bn. Alibaba’s Chinese retail marketplaces accounted for 72% of revenues and had 453m active buyers (an increase of 8.3% over 2016). Mobile commerce accounted for 80% of Chinese commerce retail revenues and together its China retail marketplaces had 507m mobile monthly average users (an increase of 23.7%). Cainiao Network Alibaba does not own its supply chain, but rather partners with key providers through the Cainiao Smart Logistics Network, which was a 51% owned subsidiary as of September 2017. Cainiao Network was established in 2013 and does not deliver packages itself. Instead it operates a logistics data platform that provides real-time data to enable LSPs to share information to increase efficiency. The network was initially formed of five express delivery companies, one retailer, and two investment companies: YTO Express (Logistics) Co., S.F. Express (Group) Co., ZTO Express Co., Yunda Ltd. and Shentong Express Co., Yintai Holdings, Fosun Group and Forchn Holdings.
Each partner performs a different function, such as warehousing, last-mile delivery etc., whilst Alibaba manages information and finance. In the year to March 2017 Cainiao Network's fifteen strategic express courier partners employed over 1,800,000 delivery personnel in more than 600 cities and 31 provinces in China. Collectively they operated more than 180,000 hubs and sorting stations, and Cainiao Network's same-day or next-day delivery services covered a total of 1,029 districts and counties (more than double its coverage in 2016). Cainiao Network and its logistics partners enabled the delivery of 16.6bn packages from Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces, which represented 81% of all items sold on Alibaba’s China retail marketplaces in the year (up from 60% in the previous year). The top six courier partners handled the majority of these packages and Alibaba believes that these orders represented a significant portion of these express courier partners’ total delivery volumes for the year. According to the Chinese Government, the eight largest express couriers in
China (STO, ZTO, YTO, Yunda, Best Express, Tiantian (TTK Express), SF
Express and China Post’s EMS) handled 76.7% of the country’s 31.3bn
parcels in 2016. As depicted in the image below, six of these companies are
embedded in Alibaba’s ecosystem, and partner extensively with Cainiao.
The exceptions to this rule, for different reasons, are EMS and SF Express.
Whilst the former is a state-owned entity, and therefore neutral, the latter has
Global e-commerce Logistics 2018
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Figure 7.3 Alibaba-affiliated companies handled more than 70% of the 31.3bn parcels handled in China during 2016
Note: Solid lines represent primary courier relationships. Dotted lines represent business ties of lesser importance. Faint dotted lines represent insignificant
business relationships. Delivery companies depicted above include the eight-largest express companies in China, in addition to JD Logistics.
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ABOUT TI
Ti is one of the world’s leading providers of expert research and analysis dedicated to the global logistics industry. Utilising the expertise of professionals with many years of experience in the mail, express and logistics industries, Transport Intelligence has developed a range of market leading web-based products, reports, profiles and services used by many of the world’s leading logistics suppliers, consultancies, banks and users of logistics services. If you have any feedback on this document, please do not hesitate to get in touch with us by any of the following means:
Telephone:+44 (0)1666 519907 Email: [email protected] Web: www.ti-insight.com Twitter: @Ti_insight Linkedin: The Transport Intelligence Forum
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