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Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview

Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

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Page 1: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview

Page 2: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies

and Processes

Page 3: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

GCS REDD+ research designed

Modules:

1. National REDD process and strategies

2. REDD demonstration activities

3. Monitoring and reference levels

4. Knowledge sharing

www.forestsclimatechange.org

Page 4: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Comparative analysis

Why: to identify structural and governance barriers for 3E REDD outcomes, and options for improvements

How: comparative analysis of individual research elements (country profile etc), qualitative comparative analysis (QCA)

Country case studies

Cross-country comparative analysis Fl

exib

le E

lem

ent:

Sp

ecif

ic P

olic

y St

ud

ies

to c

aptu

re e

mer

gin

g o

r co

un

try

spec

ific

issu

es

and

qu

esti

on

s, fo

cus

on

po

litic

al e

con

om

y st

ud

ies

M1: National strategy and processes

Country profile

Why: To reveal contextual conditions (drivers of deforestation, institutions, political economy, REDD

architecture as discussed) How: literature review, expert interviews

Discourse Media

Analysis Why:

To determine what kinds of actors are shaping public

debate. How: media-based analysis Strategy Assessment

Why: To assess the adequacy of proposed response measures to secure 3E outcomes?

How: situational analysis, R-PP scoring

Policy Network Analysis

Why: To analyse structural conditions in the policy arena, Actors, Perception, Power, Position

How: survey and in-depth interviews

Page 5: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

The involvement of actors in shaping the discourse of REDD+ process (%)

Actor group Bolivia

n=60

Brazil

n=113

Cameroon

n=12

Indonesia

n=219

Nepal

n=17

Peru

n=8

Vietnam

n=32

State (national) 50 27 8 46 8 13 69

State (sub-national) 3 2 0 7 6 0 0

Corporate 10 4 0 3 6 0 3

Intergovernmental 8 7 17 8 6 25 28

Research (international) 0 11 42 5 6 25 0

NGO+ENGO (international) 10 17 0 16 0 25 0

Research (national) 3 13 25 6 12 0 0

Civil society actors (national) 15 20 8 10 47 13 0

Source: Di Gregorio and Brockhaus, forthcoming

Page 6: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Ow

ne

rsh

ip

(In

clu

siv

e/E

xclu

siv

e) Vietnam

Cameroon

Indonesia

Peru

Brazil

Convergence of discourse

High

High Low

Nepal

Convergence of discourse

Source: Di Gregorio and Brockhaus, forthcoming

Page 7: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

M2: REDD demonstration activities

Page 8: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Comparison (Control)

Project site

(Intervention)

Before After

IMPACT

Intervention After

Control After

Intervention Before

Control Before

The “BACI” method Research

mode Number

of project sites

Intervention Control Total villages

Total house-holds

Villages HHs Villages HHs

Intensive 13 52 1,560 52 1,560 104 3,120

Extensive 6 24 - - - 24 -

Non-BACI 1 31 247 11 131 42 378

Total 20 78 1,807 63 1,691 170 3,498

Page 9: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

M3: Monitoring and reference levels

Base period Or Historical reference

Crediting period = 35 years?

With REDD

Without REDD

F

ore

st

C-s

tocks

With REDD+

5 or 10 yrs?

Base Period Or Historical reference

With REDD

Without REDD

C-e

mis

sio

n G

t C

O2-e

q

With REDD+

5 or 10 yrs?

Crediting period = 35 years?

Page 10: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Capacity gap of 99 non-Annex 1

Category 1: national engagement in REDD+ processes Category 2: existing monitoring capacity Category 3: REDD+ challenges Category 4: remote sensing technical challenges

Source: Romijn et al. 2012

Page 11: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

MRV capacity

• Reporting of REDD+ activities requires national forest monitoring systems (NFMSs) remote sensing and ground-based and national inventory approaches

• An NFMS may use the default (Tier 1) information provided in the IPCC guidelines

• MRV process could take stepwise approach with continuous improvements

• The most recently agreed or adopted IPCC methods should be used, as decided by the UNFCCC

Page 12: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Lessons learned • Transformational change at

the national level needs economic interests, discursive practices and shifts in power relations among the actors

• At subnational level, tenure security is an ultimate prerequisite to achieve 3Es in REDD+ implementation

• Level of capacity to monitor REDD+ depends on the exposure of countries to basic forest inventory and the advancement of remote sensing technologies

Page 13: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Step-wise approach for RL/RELs

Modules 1 & 3

Page 14: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

How we came to the step-wise approach • CIFOR GCS and DECC/DEFRA side project (2011)

• Idea of a tiered approach for establishing RL/RELs (Aug. 11, initially by Huettner et al., 2009)

– Presented to SBSTA expert workshop (mid Nov. 11)

– Mentioned of “tiered” approach in conclusions

• UNFCCC COP17 side event hosted by UK to present approaches

• Adoption of stepwise approach in UNFCCC LCA decision on RL/RELs

• CIFOR policy brief to describe details for a proposed step-wise approach

Page 15: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Criteria for comparing country circumstances and strategies

Page 16: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Criteria for comparing country circumstances and strategies

Page 17: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Setting benchmark for result based payments

School of Economics and Business Norwegian University of Life Sciences (UMB)

Modules 1 &3

Page 18: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

A proposal for setting benchmark for result based payments

1. Business as Usual (BAU) deforestation

Historical deforestation

National circumstances, e.g. forest cover

Adjusted BAU

2. Costs, based on arguments of effectiveness and efficiency; set such that transfer = costs

3. Fair sharing, rich (> USD1 000/capita) countries pay some share of costs, poor countries are overcompensated

4. Tier approach, high uncertainty of underlying data impose a conservativeness factor

Page 19: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Element Historical

BAU Costs Fair sharing Uncertainty

Variables Hist.defor rate (FIB I)

Forest cover

BAU defor

(forest cover) (FIB II)

Defor after

REDD+

Emission

reductions

Opp. costs per

tCO2

Cost adjust

. factor

FIB III FS factor (based

on GDP)

FIB IV Cons. factor

FIB V

Example I: Poor, low deforetation, forest rich country

Parameter value (treshold) 50% 5.0 2.5 1,000

Area (1000 ha) 350 180, 000

746 298 448 522 556 445

Relative to forest or land area 0.19% 72.00% 0.41% 0.17% 0.25% 0.29% 0.15 0.31% 0.80 0.25%

Emission MtCO2 (100tC/ha) 128 274 110 164

Value (USD million) 821 411 0.50 500

REDD transfers (USD million) 821 411 - 473 - 269

Example II: Rich, high deforestation, low forest cover country

Parameter value 50% 5.0 2.5 1,000

Area (1000 ha) 1,000 70,000 846 338 508 592 503 453

Relative to forest or land area 1.43% 28.00% 1.21% 0.48% 0.73% 0.85% (0.35) 0.72% 0.90 0.65%

Emission MtCO2 (100tC/ha) 367 310 124 186

Value (USD million) 931 466 0.50 5,000

REDD transfers (USD million) 931 466 - 303 - 210

Page 20: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Tasks 3Es and co-benefits Return of results

Publications based on early research Equity & social co-benefits

Biophysical baseline & MRV workshops Effectiveness

Set-up, implementation, opportunity costs Efficiency & equity

Benefit sharing Efficiency & equity

REDD+ and biodiversity Environmental co-benefits

What we are doing now

Page 21: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

More ground work Postdocs 1. Oliver van Straaten – Soil C in mineral

soils 2. Etik Handayani – Effects of fertlilzation on

soil GHG emissions in oil palm on peat 3. Ervan Rutishauser – Effects of land use

change on C stocks 4. Joko Purbupuspito – C dynamics in

mangroves 5. Arief Wijaya – Drivers of deforestation 6. Shijo Joseph – Reference level 7. Anita Kamalakumari – Emission factors 8. Matthew Warren – C peat swamp forests 9. Rupesh Bhomia – C dynamics in

mangroves

Page 22: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

PhD and MSc students 1. Jenny Farmer – Heterotrphic respiration (OP) 2. Louis-Pierre Comeu – Heterotrophic

respiration (Acacia) 3. Sebastian Persch – Roots and LUC on peat 4. Jodie Hartill – LUC on non-CO2 GHGs (min) 5. Fitri Aini – LUC on non-CO2 GHGs (peat) 6. Nisa Novita – LUC on GHG emissions from

peat and upland systems 7. Sofyan Kurnianto – Modeling C accumltn 8. Oktarita Satria – N oxides on mineral soils 9. Veronique De Sy – Drivers of deforestation 10. Jose Gonzalez de Tanago – REL/RL 11. Sarah Carter

More ground work

Page 23: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Exploring EFs Stock-change approach

Page 24: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Flux difference approach

Exploring EFs

Page 25: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Global wetlands map – basic data

Page 26: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

www.cifor.org/swamp

Page 27: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

IPCC Guidelines – 2006

Source: IPCC (2006)

Page 28: Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overvie 12 part … · Global Comparative Study on REDD: An overview. Module 1: Analysis of National REDD+ Policies and Processes . GCS REDD+

Thank you…..