GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE: Challenges & Opportunities for Challenges & Opportunities for

TransportationTransportation

Cynthia J. Burbank National Planning and Environment Practice Leader

Parsons Brinckerhoff

East West Gateway Council Air Quality Advisory Council Meeting

December 11, 2008

Disclaimer: Much of the information presented is based on PB work for NCHRP 20-24(59). Work is in progress and is not a NCHRP report nor does it represent the panel’s views. The NCHRP work is intended to inform AASHTO members' policy-development discussions and does not include making recommendations on matters of policy.

Climate Change is Real Climate Change is Real and Poses Major Risksand Poses Major Risks

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocal…” -- Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

“An overwhelming body of scientific evidence paints a clear picture: climate change is happening, it is caused in large part by human activity, and it will have many serious and potentially damaging effects in the decades ahead.” -- Pew Center on Climate Change

But public awareness and commitment in the U.S. doesn’t yet reflect the risks

GHG Targets Are DauntingGHG Targets Are DauntingClimate scientists 80% below 1990 by 2050

California, Montana, Florida 80% below 1990 by 2050

Oregon 75% below 1990 by 2050

Massachusetts, Vermont, New Hampshire, Connecticut, Maine, Rhode Island

75-85% below 2001 by 2050

Colorado 80% below 2005 by 2050

New Mexico 75% below 2000

Climate Security Act (Lieberman-Warner) S.2191

Up to 66% below current levels

by 2050

Global Warming Reduction Act (Kerry-Snowe) S.485

62% below 1990 by 2050

Climate Stewardship and Innovation Act (McCain-Lieberman) S.280

60% below 1990 by 2050

United Kingdom 60% below 1990 by 2050

9

U.S. GHG Emissions by Sector (1990-2005)U.S. GHG Emissions by Sector (1990-2005)

Source: INVENTORY OF U.S. GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS AND SINKS: 1990-2005 (April 2007) Fast Facts USEPA #430-F-07-004

Transportation is 28% of U.S. GHG –

and Rising

Rail, 43

Waterborne, 58

Air, 171

Heavy Vehicles,

350

Light Vehicles,

1113

Pipeline/Other, 47 Internat'l./Bunker,

84

U. S. Transportation Carbon Emissions by Mode, 2003

(Million metric tons CO2)

Highway Vehicles = 78% of Transportation CO2 Emissions

Transportation GHG Reduction Transportation GHG Reduction

is a is a FourFour-legged Stool-legged Stool

The 3-legged stool:– Vehicles– Fuels– VMT

The 4th leg:– Vehicle/System Operations

Light Duty Vehicles & FuelsLight Duty Vehicles & Fuels

50% cut in GHG/mile is feasible by 2030 from conventional technologies and biofuels

Almost complete decarbonization of transport vehicles/fuels by 2050 is a “realistic ambition,” with advanced technology/fuels

Electric & hydrogen fuel cell vehicles are promising – but must overcome many technology and economic issues

The need for technological improvement is urgent

Worldwide Car Ownership Worldwide Car Ownership Rising DramaticallyRising Dramatically

Vehicle “Decarbonization” Vehicle “Decarbonization” is Essential is Essential

“In the long term, carbon free road transport fuel is the only way to achieve an 80-90% reduction in emissions, essentially “decarbonization.”

--The King Review for the U.K. Government, by Professor Julia King, Vice-Chancellor

of Aston University and former Director of Advanced Engineering at Rolls-Royce plc, March 2008

Vehicle “Decarbonization” Vehicle “Decarbonization” is Necessaryis Necessary

“[I]n the period beyond 2100, total GHG emissions will have to be just 20% of current levels. It is impossible to imagine this without decarbonization of the transport sector.”

-- Sir Nicholas Stern, Stern Review to the U.K. Government, 2007

VMT MattersVMT Matters

Slowing U.S. VMT growth to 1% annually – or less -- may be necessary to meet GHG targets

Alternative Scenarios for U.S. Light Duty Vehicle 2050 CO2 Emissions

1210

377

471

760

949

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

2005 Scenario 1:100 mpgge fleet

1.0% ann. VMT growth

Scenario 2:100 mpgge fleet

1.5% ann. VMT growth

Scenario 3:50 mpgge fleet

1.0% ann. VMT growth

Scenario 4:50 mpgge fleet

1.5% ann. VMT growth

Scenarios

Mil

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etri

c T

on

s C

O2

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

Mil

lio

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O2

70% Below 2005 Levels in 2050 (363 Million Metric Tons CO2)

Vehicle/System OperationsVehicle/System OperationsAlso MatterAlso Matter

10-20% LDV GHG reduction potential by: Managing speed (40-50 MPH is optimal; speed

limits/enforcement could reduce road fuel use 2-4%) Reducing congestion and accel-decel Reducing poor signal timing (could reduce 1.315

MMT CO2/yr) Reducing car and truck idling Optimizing tire inflation Encouraging “eco driving”

Carbon Tax or Federal Cap & Carbon Tax or Federal Cap & Trade Legislation Can Achieve Big Trade Legislation Can Achieve Big

GHG ReductionsGHG ReductionsS.2191 (Lieberman-Warner Cap & Trade): Imposes a declining cap on GHG for power

plants, oil importers and refiners, industrial sources

Reduces U.S. GHG 66% below 2005 levels by 2050

Has lower % effect on transportation GHG Increases energy prices -- gas prices $1.40

higher by 2050 Allocates $171 billion to transit over 38 years Lowers U.S. GDP 0.9-3.8% in 2050

Prices Are Key to Prices Are Key to GHG ReductionGHG Reduction

Higher energy prices are essential to promote energy conservation and new technologies in all sectors

In transport, pricing can be powerful:

- PAYD Insurance

- Mileage fees

- Parking pricing

- Congestion pricing

- Vehicle “feebates”

What About Land Use?What About Land Use?

According to “Growing Cooler“ report by ULI/CCAP:“It is realistic to assume a 30 percent cut in VMT with compact

development.” “… smart growth could …reduce total transportation-related CO2

emissions from current trends by 7 to 10 percent as of 2050.”

“Growing Cooler” assumes: – 67% of development in place in 2050 is new or rehab– 60-90% of that development is “smart growth” (equivalent to

15 housing units per acre)

Is this realistic? What will it take? Who should lead?

Transit Helps – But is Small in Transit Helps – But is Small in Percentage PotentialPercentage Potential

• Transit serves 1% of PMT and 0% freight in the U.S.

• APTA: Transit reduced GHG by 6.9 MMT in 2005

• This is 1/3 of 1% of U.S. transportation GHG

• European Ministers of Transport caution: “Modal shift policies are usually weak in terms of the quantity of CO2 abated …. Modal shift measures can be effective when well targeted, particularly when integrated with demand management measures. They can not, however, form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy…..”

Serves other goals – and is seen as key to land use changes

Many States Are DevelopingMany States Are Developing Aggressive Climate Action PlansAggressive Climate Action Plans

State Climate Plans –Transportation Elements Are All Over the Map

State Year VehicleLow

Carbon Fuels

Smart Growth and

TransitOther

MN 2025 15% 35% 25% 25%

NC 2020 35% 12% 38% 15%

SC 2020 14% 55% 29% 1%

CT 2020 51% 38% 8% 2%

ME 2020 53% 25% 21% 1%

MD 2025 24% 12% 45% 20%

NY 2020 59% 11% 27% 4%

PA 2025 45% 36% 18% 0%

RI 2020 46% 10% 31% 14%

VT 2028 21% 14% 49% 17%

How Much Should We Pay How Much Should We Pay Per Ton of GHG Reduction?Per Ton of GHG Reduction?

$17 to $44/ton of GHG = cost of climate damages, 2007 (3% discount rate)*

Compare to:$80/ton savings for LDV fuel economy standards**$20/ton savings for cellulosic biofuels**$30-50/ton cost for signal optimization***$100-800/ton cost for transit service improvements***

* EPA study, 2008** McKinsey & Company study,

2007*** WASHCOG estimate, 2008

Technology Yields Huge GHG Technology Yields Huge GHG Reductions at up to $50/Ton Reductions at up to $50/Ton

($50/ton of GHG = $0.50/gallon of gasoline)($50/ton of GHG = $0.50/gallon of gasoline)

-- McKinsey & Company

No Silver Bullet – Instead We Need No Silver Bullet – Instead We Need Silver BuckshotSilver Buckshot

- David Greene and Andreas Schaefer, for Pew Center on Climate Change

Greene & Schafer (Pew Center, 2003) concluded that a Greene & Schafer (Pew Center, 2003) concluded that a comprehensive, tailored set of strategies could cut U.S. comprehensive, tailored set of strategies could cut U.S.

transportation emissions in half by 2030.transportation emissions in half by 2030.

Sources of Transportation GHG Reductions, 2015 and 2030

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

To

tal <

Su

m o

f C

om

po

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ts

Information andEducation.

Systems

Infrastructure

Pricing

Carbon Cap

Hydrogen

Low-Carbon Fuels

Air Efficiency

Heavy Duty Truck Effic.

LDV Efficiency

2015 2030

Source: Greene and Schafer, Pew Center on Global Climate Change, May 2003.

“The most effective measures available include fuel taxes, vehicle and component standards, differentiated vehicle taxation, support for eco-driving and incentives for more efficient logistic organization, including point of use pricing for roads. “

“More integrated transport and spatial planning policies might contain demand for motorized transport.”

Mode shifts … cannot … form the corner-stone of effective CO2 abatement policy and the prominence given to modal shift policies is at odds with indications that most modal shift policies achieve much lower abatement levels than measures focusing on fuel efficiency.”

“Ultimately higher cost energy sources …. will be required if there are to be further cuts in transport sector CO2 emissions.”

European Council of European Council of Ministers of Transport (2006)Ministers of Transport (2006)

Climate Adaptation Is as Climate Adaptation Is as Important as GHG ReductionImportant as GHG Reduction

“Climate change will affect transportation primarily through increases in several types of weather and climate extremes… very hot days; intense precipitation events; intense hurricanes; drought; and rising sea levels, coupled with storm surges and land subsidence.”

“The impacts …. will be widespread and costly in both human and economic terms and will require significant changes in the planning, design, construction, operation, and maintenance of transportation systems.”

-- TRB Special Report, March 2008

CONCLUSIONS CONCLUSIONS

Many strategies are needed to reduce surface transport GHG:

1. Adopt pricing measures to reward conservation and tech innovation

2. Maximize energy efficiency of current vehicles (50 MPG)3. Invest in tech breakthroughs for decarbonized vehicles4. Push “eco driving” and congestion/speed management 5. Implement more efficient land use 6. Maximize and reward carpools & vanpools7. Increase biking, walking, transit use, trip chaining, telecommuting

$50/ton of GHG should be the cost ceiling for the near term (but how can transportation agencies fund even this?)

Adapting transportation infrastructure to climate impacts is important and will be difficult and costly