Global Climate Change: An Engineering NGO Perspective by Bill Wallace presented to ASCE International Conference Weston Convention Center, Pittsburgh November

Global Climate Change: An Engineering NGO Perspective

by

Bill Wallacepresented to

ASCE International ConferenceWeston Convention Center, Pittsburgh

November 5, 2008

Professional Perspectives in Addressing Climate Change

Bill Wallace 1ASCE International Program

Bill Wallace Bio

• Founder and President, Wallace Futures Group, LLC, Steamboat Springs, Colorado, USA

• Book author: Becoming Part of the Solution: The Engineer’s Guide to Sustainable Development

• Past-president of Engineers Without Borders–USA• Member of the ASCE Committee on Sustainability • Chair of the International Federation of Consulting

Engineers (FIDIC) Sustainable Development Committee• Subcommittee Chair of ACEC Environment & Energy

Committee• Member of the Democratic National Convention Green

Team• Former Liaison Delegate to the World Business Council for

Sustainable Development• 21 years at CH2M HILL in various senior positions

2Bill Wallace ASCE International Program

Summary

• Engineering industry perspectives on climate change

• Role of engineers in addressing climate change– Engineering industry associations have long been

advocates for the engineering business– It’s time to change that role– Bridge the gaps among society, science and

politics


Addressing Climate Change in Steamboat Springs


Scientific Certainty Argumentation Method (S.C.A.M.)

• Scientific evidence for making policy decisions is always ambiguous or incomplete – “Uncertainty space” in scientific arguments creates

rich opportunities for gaming the system• S.C.A.M. technique on global climate change – Demand scientific certainty– Point to contrarian studies as “proof” that uncertainty

exists– Delay policy decisions and action– Extends the life of old paradigms


Reference: William Freudenburg, Robert Gramling, Debre Davidson, “SCAMming environmental policy: policymakers crave certainty, but almost all science operates in shades of gray,” WorldWatch, May 1, 2008.

Climate Changes Policies in the Engineering Industry Associations

• American Council of Engineering Companies (ACEC)– “Carbon Balancing”

• International Federation of Consulting Engineers (FIDIC)– No published policies – Reactions of individual associations • Australia: ACEA• The Netherlands: ORNI


ORNI(Dutch Association of Consulting Engineers)

President: Ed Nijpels, Former Netherlands Minister of the Environment

Activities related to the consulting engineering sector as Minister

• The first National Plan for the Environment in the Netherlands• The National Plan for Integrated Spatial Planning

Other Activities• Chairman of the National Board to Reinforce the Building

Industry• Chairman of the International Waddensea Forum• Chairman of the Climate Centre of the International Red Cross • Chairman of the Foundation Water for Life• Member of the Governmental Committee for PPP in

infrastructure • Member of the Advisory Board for Delta Technology 21st

Century

Bill Wallace ASCE International Program 7

Why a Politician?

Consulting Engineers Have

• Knowledge• Capabilities• Technical skills• Organization• Position to improve living

conditions in the world,

But…

Consulting Engineers Lack

• Avowed ambition• Political sensibility• Strong image• Communication skillsto claim a leadership

position for improving our society


Ed Nijpels, ORNI

Why is a New Approach Needed?• Globalization• We live in a “Risk Society”• Relationship among society, science

and politics has changed

Who should be leading who?


Ed Nijpels, ORNI

Consulting Engineers Can Be That Bridge

BUT…• Consulting engineers must

act beyond their commission

• Consulting engineers have a responsibility to do so


Ed Nijpels, ORNI

HOW DO WE BRIDGE THE GAP?

Do a better job of defining the problemDevelop a technology roadmap for improving sustainable performance Demand extraordinary levels of cooperation and collaborationRevise engineering curriculums to deliver the engineer required for the 21st century


Do a Better Job of Defining the Problem

• Climate change as a symptom of a flawed economic development model

• Need to understand the full breadth of the problems we’re dealing with– Current situation– Impacts and urgencies


http://www.guardian.co.uk/news/gallery/2007/jul/18/china.pollution?picture=330216033

Climate Change as a Symptom of a Flawed Economic Development Model


Our current model for economic development is not sustainable

Global Climate change Leading edge of many

problems to come Many are already here!

Do a better job of defining the problem

Need to Understand the Full Breadth of the Problems We’re Dealing With


• What are people and organizations doing that isn’t sustainable?

• What are the consequences of continuing to be non-sustainable?

• How serious and urgent are these consequences?

• What needs to be done to fix them?

• What does it mean to be sustainable?


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Available Resources and Carrying Capacities: Current Situation

Ref: Mathis Wackernagel, et. al., “Tracking the ecological overshoot of the human economy,” Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2002 Jul 9;99(14):9266-71

Ecological overshoot

Year15Bill Wallace



Renewable resources (ecological) Use < Regeneration

Non-renewable resources (minerals, fuels) Use < Rate of development

of renewable substitutes

Pollution emissions Emissions < Carrying capacity

of the environment

What it Means to be Sustainable (A Thermodynamic Definition)

Herman E. Daly suggested these three operational rules defining the condition of ecological (thermodynamic) sustainability.

16Bill Wallace


Understand the Impacts and Urgencies• Changes are occurring at a

scope, scale and speed we never thought possible– Scope: Being felt

everywhere. More serious for the poor, less resilient nations

– Scale: Happening at all scales (local, regional, global) and in all sectors.

– Speed: Happening faster than we ever imagined

• Climate change is the leading edge of this change

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Source: Pew Center for Global Climate Change

Correlation of CO2 Concentration to Temperature Rise

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CO2CO2

TemperatureTemperature

Bill Wallace


Significant Climate Anomalies and Events in 2007

Source: UNEP Year Book, 2008

Heat wave

Heavy Snows

Low precipitation

Heavy Rains

Extreme storm

Drought

Low temps




Develop a Technology Roadmap for Improving Sustainable Performance

• Response to climate change is most urgent– Adaptation, mitigation

• Working at the project level isn’t sufficient– We owe it to society to challenge unsound, politically-

motivated initiatives, e.g., corn-based ethanol• The engineering community has that the requisite

knowledge and experience– Knows what works or can work– Also technology gaps– Can team with the scientific community to set research

priorities, agendas

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Develop a Technology Road Map


Path Forward

Development and application of more sustainable technologies

Today

1980 2000 20201970 1990 2010 2030

Num

ber o

f Ear

ths

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.6

Number of Earths Used by Humanity

Number of Earths Available

Target pathway

Projections

Opportunities for innovation

22Bill Wallace


Technology Roadmap Outline• Subject areas (framework)• Desired end state• Schedule for achieving this end state• Urgencies, deadlines• "Wild cards”• Critical technologies• Gaps in technology• Framework conditions• Actions to take, in priority order• Resource implications• Alternative scenarios, strategies,

approaches



Demand Extraordinary Levels of Cooperation and Collaboration

• Requirements for addressing global climate change– Cooperation and collaboration by all of society to reduce

greenhouse gas emissions– Good Luck!

• Problem: “The Tragedy of the Commons”*


Demand cooperation and collaboration

*"The Tragedy of the Commons," Garrett Hardin, Science, 162(1968):1243-1248.

Revise Engineering Curriculums to Deliver the Engineer Required for the 21st Century

• Provide meaning and context to engineering education

• Development of globally aware and internationally responsible engineers, students, and professionals.

• “Engineering Education 3.0”


Revise Engineering Curriculums

“Engineering Education 3.0”• 1.0 Age of attrition

– Solving engineering puzzles out of context

– Engineering is not for slackers!

• 2.0 Age of competition– Puzzles plus practicum– Design contests, mostly single

discipline focused – Engineering can be fun!

• 3.0 Age of contribution– Puzzles in context– How engineering contributes to

quality of life– Engineering has significance!

26Bill Wallace ASCE International Program

Revise Engineering Curriculums

Closing Remarks



Contact information:Bill Wallace, A.M. ASCEMember, ASCE Committee on Sustainability Wallace Futures Group, LLC+1(970)[email protected]

Documents

Global Climate Change: An Engineering NGO Perspective by Bill Wallace presented to ASCE International Conference Weston Convention Center, Pittsburgh November